Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?
|
|
- Emory Barton
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger? May 8, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There is in interesting dichotomy currently occurring within the economy. While consumer confidence, as reported by the Census Bureau, soared to some of the highest levels seen since the turn of the century, the hard economic data continues to remain quite weak. As noted by Morgan Stanley just recently: Compare the New York Federal Reserve Bank s current 1Q GDP tracking vs ours FRBNY is currently tracking 1Q GDP at 3.0% versus us around 1%. The difference is larger than usual and is being driven by the fact that the New York Fed incorporates soft data into its tracking (attempting to tie it econometrically to GDP, a very hard thing to do especially in realtime). Our method translates the incoming hard data into its GDP equivalent. Note that the Atlanta Fed s GDPNow tracking also focuses on hard data and is currently tracking 1% for 1Q GDP. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 The stunning divergence can be seen in the chart attached to that same article which shows the difference between the hard and soft data specifically. What is currently expected by those with a more bullish bias is the hard data will soon play catch up with the soft data. Importantly, as I discussed in Fade To Black, this is the basis of the markets continued optimism that tax reforms, repatriations and infrastructure spending create the reflationary dynamics necessary to spur economic growth of 3-4%. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 However, there may be a problem. Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by pulling forward future consumption, such actions create an eventual void that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the event horizon may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales. Following the financial crisis the average age of vehicles on the road had gotten fairly extended so a replacement cycle became more likely. This replacement cycle was accelerated when the Obama Administration launched the cash for clunkers program which reduced the number of used vehicles for sale pushing individuals into new cars. Combine replacement needs with low interest rates, easy financing, and extended terms and you get a sales cycle as shown below. (Note: When auto sales are reported each month they are annualized. The bar chart shows the over/underestimation of auto sales each month as compared to what actually occurred on an annual basis.) The issue is, of course, there are only a finite number of people to sell new cars too. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 What the chart above shows is the number of cars sold currently now exceeds both the total increase in population and replacement needs of the existing population. In other words, the pool of available buyers is rapidly being depleted. But more importantly, while the media touts record auto sales, it is a far different story when compared to the increase in the population. With total sales only slightly eclipsing the previous record, given the increase in the population this is not the victory the media wishes to make it sound. In fact, the current level of auto sales on a per capita basis is only back to where near the bottom of recessions with the exception of the financial crisis. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Furthermore, the annual rate of auto sales has slowed dramatically and is approaching levels normally associated with more severe economic weakness. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 But slowing auto sales is only one-half of the problem. The problem for automakers is, as always, they continue to produce inventory even though demand is slowing. The cars are then shifted to dealers which have to resort to increasing levels of incentives to get the inventory sold. However, eventually, this is a losing game. The chart below shows the current level of swelling inventories relative to sales. Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 There is a limit to the level of incentives that dealers can provide to move inventory. Wolf Richter recently penned a really good report on this issue: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive pegged incentives at $3,768 per new vehicle sold the highest ever for any March. The prior record for March was achieved in 2009 as the industry was collapsing. In June 2009, GM filed for bankruptcy. The Subprime Problem Resurfaces Given the lack of wage growth, consumers are needing to get payments down to levels where they can afford them. Furthermore, about 1/3rd of the loans are going to individuals with credit scores averaging 550 which carry much higher rates up to 20%. In fact, since 2010, the share of subprime Auto ABS origination has come from deep subprime deals which have increased from just 5.1% in 2010 to 32.5% currently. That growth has been augmented by the emergence of new deep sub-prime lenders which are lenders who did not issue loans prior to Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 While there has been much touting of the strength of the consumer in recent years, it has been a credit driven mirage. With income growth weak, debt levels elevated and rent and health care costs chipping away at disposable incomes, in order to make payments even remotely possible, terms are often stretched to 84 months. The eventual issue is that since cars are typically turned over every 3-5 years on average, borrowers are typically upside down in their vehicle when it comes time to trade it in. Between the negative equity of their trade-in, along with title, taxes, and license fees, and a hefty dealer profit rolled into the original loan, there is going to be a substantial problem down the road. As noted by Reuters: Typically, car dealers tack on an amount equal to the negative equity to a loan for the consumers next vehicle. To keep the monthly payments stable, the new credit is for a greater length of time. Over the course of multiple trade-ins, negative equity accumulates. Moody s calls this the trade-in treadmill, the result of which is increasing lender risk, with larger and larger lossseverity exposure. To ease consumers monthly payments, auto manufacturers could subsidize lenders or increase incentives to reduce purchase prices, though either action would reduce their profits, the report said. Page 8, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 Auto loans, in general, have been in a huge boom that reached $1.11 trillion in the fourth quarter As noted above, 33.5% of those loans are sub-prime, or $ billion. With more sub-prime auto loans outstanding currently than prior to the financial crisis, defaults rising rapidly and a large majority with negative equity in their vehicles, swapping out to a new car is becoming a near impossible option. Recently, Matt Turner cobbled together some interesting data from several sources on this issue. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans is at the highest level in at least seven years according to Fitch. The jump in losses on sub-prime auto loans moved to 9.1% in January, up from 7.9% a year earlier. The data suggests there is notable deterioration in the performance of these loans and given there are roughly 6-million individuals at least 90-days late on payments suggests rising stress levels of the consumer. Page 9, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
10 While the cash for clunkers program by the Obama Administration caused a massive surge in used vehicle prices due to the rapid depletion of inventory at the time, much of that inventory has now been rebuilt. Now, used vehicle prices are dropping sharply, as the market is flooded with off-lease vehicles and consumer demand is weakening. Page 10, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 As noted above, the issue of the trade-in treadmill is a major issue for auto lenders as default risk continues to increase. Per Moody s: The percentage of trade-ins with negative equity is at an all-time high, as is the average dollar amount of that negative equity. Lenders are increasingly faced with the choice of taking on greater risk by rolling negative equity at trade-in into the next vehicle loan. We believe they are increasingly taking this choice, resulting in mounting negative equity with successive new-car purchases. Asset-backed securities based on auto loans are showing signs of stress, with the subprime auto ABS delinquency rate closing in on crisis-era peak levels. Per Morgan Stanley: Across prime and subprime ABS, 60+ delinquencies are currently printing at 0.54% and 4.51%, respectively, with the latter approaching crisis-era peak levels (4.69%). Default rates are also picking up in similar fashion (prime: 1.52%; subprime: 11.96%), printing close to crisis levels. While prime severities slowly crept past 50% recently, subprime severities have breached 60%, a level we haven t seen since late With both default rates and loss severities trending up, it is no surprise to see annualized net loss rates moving in the same direction. Page 11, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 Given the importance of automobiles to the domestic manufacturing sector of the economy, the extent to which the sale of autos to consumers has likely reached an important inflection point. As shown in the last chart below, the previous recessionary warnings from autos was dismissed until far too late, it is likely not a good idea to dismiss it this time. Page 12, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 Why does this matter? Because it isn t just auto loans. As Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns noted: The big three areas of credit expansion this cycle energy, auto and student loans. In the fall 2016 survey ahead of the latest borrowing reassessment this past October, Haynes and Boone said that respondents on average expected 41 percent of the borrowers to see a decrease. This decrease was expected at an average of 20 percent, in which lenders were expecting a 16-percent decrease and borrowers a 29-percent decrease. While energy prices recovered enough to allow drillers to start back operations, primarily in the Permian Basin, the surge in supply is leading to another potential glut by 2018 and another downturn in oil prices. Such an event will put further strain on lenders as default risk rise in the sector. Currently, 42.4 million Americans owe $1.3 trillion in federal student loans. More than 4.2 million borrowers were in default as of the end of 2016, up from 3.6 million in In all, 1.1 million more borrowers went into or re-entered default last year. And then there is also the problem of commercial real estate (CRE) where rapid loan growth over the past year, combined with recent underwriting reviews, raise many concerns over the Page 13, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
14 quality of CRE risk management, particularly managing concentrations. Add to that weak underwriting and erosion of covenant protections in leveraged lending and you have real problems. So, if you are wondering where the next economic shock may come from...there is a clear and present danger lurking below the headlines. Lance Roberts Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for Clarity Financial. He is also the host of The Lance Roberts Show and Chief Editor of the Real Investment Advice website and author of Real Investment Daily blog and Real Investment Report. Real Investment Advice Page 14, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Liquidity Trapped! The Fed s Policy Nightmare
Liquidity Trapped! The Fed s Policy Nightmare August 23, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Yesterday, we got the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. Not surprisingly, we
More informationDon t Blame Baby Boomers For Not Retiring
Don t Blame Baby Boomers For Not Retiring October 4, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice In business, the 80/20 rule states that 80% of your business will come from 20% of your customers. In
More informationDebt vs Growth: Correlation or Causation
Debt vs Growth: Correlation or Causation February 24, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Recently, my article on weak economic underpinnings led to an interesting exchange, via Twitter, with
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit. August 9, Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience
COMMENTARY NUMBER 462 June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit August 9, 2012 Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience Trade Data Place Upside Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP Revision Consumer Credit
More informationJoseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery
Joseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery Remarks by Mr Joseph S Tracy, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York, 28
More informationAverage Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage
Average Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage August 31, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Ready to Raise Interest Rates... Maybe 2. Yellen s #2 Man
More informationThe Long View Rates, GDP & Challenges
The Long View Rates, GDP & Challenges May 3, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 363 Inflation, Retail Sales, Production. April 15, Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March
COMMENTARY NUMBER 363 Inflation, Retail Sales, Production April 15, 2011 Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March Fed s Dollar Debasement Has Boosted Quarterly CPI Inflation to More than 5% March
More informationThe US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter
The US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter January 31, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Advance GDP Report Missed Expectations at Only 2.6% 2. US Economic Strength Lifts Other
More informationWhere next for first-time buyers? By Bob Pannell, Economic Adviser, IMLA
Where next for first-time buyers? By Bob Pannell, Economic Adviser, IMLA Introduction The latest figures confirm that there were about 366,000 first-time buyers in the UK in 2017. This is a positive outcome,
More informationThe Equifax Economic and Credit Markets Outlook
The Equifax Economic and Credit Markets Outlook A CUNA Roundtable Amy Crews Cutts SVP- Chief Economist, Equifax May 15, 2014 Comments on the Economic Outlook General forecast is that economic growth accelerates
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 372 April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift. June 9, Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit
COMMENTARY NUMBER 372 April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift June 9, 2011 Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit Trade Revisions Showed Somewhat Deeper Historical Shortfalls Mr.
More informationSub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance. December 9, October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
COMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance December 9, 2011 October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price
More informationThe Long-Term Investing Myth
The Long-Term Investing Myth January 3, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice During my morning routine of caffeine supported information injections, I ran across several articles that just contained
More informationYes, You Should Worry About Market Corrections
Yes, You Should Worry About Market Corrections October 19, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Can we stop this nonsense? Please. One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationObservation. January 18, credit availability, credit
January 18, 11 HIGHLIGHTS Underlying the improvement in economic indicators over the last several months has been growing signs that the economy is also seeing a recovery in credit conditions. The mortgage
More informationThe Big Lie Of Market Indexes
The Big Lie Of Market Indexes September 19, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion. In a recent
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 460 FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator. August 1, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 460 FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator August 1, 2012 Fed Action Appears to Be on Hold for Systemic-Solvency Crisis Construction Spending Still Bottom-Bouncing Disposable
More informationSavings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar
Savings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar January 24, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US National Savings Rate Falls to 2.9%, Decade Low 2. Median Savings Rates by
More informationSympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators
Key Points Sympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators October 24, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Leading economic indicators are showing no stress on the surface; but
More informationECONOMY: DESPITE SLOW APRIL, FUNDAMENTALS ARE IMPROVING
May 2009 ECONOMY: DESPITE SLOW APRIL, FUNDAMENTALS ARE IMPROVING page 1 RETAIL AND WHOLESALE VEHICLE MARKETS page 3 Q&A WITH TOM WEBB page 5 The Auto Industry Brief is published monthly by Manheim Consulting.
More informationWill We See A Recession This Year?
Will We See A Recession This Year? Rising Rates Are Here This week, the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) signaled their intention to raise their target interest rate when they meet in mid-march. If they do,
More informationUS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist RMS US LLP. October 2016
US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist RMS US LLP October 2016 US Economic Outlook Base Case: Trend US growth near 2 percent in 2016 Long-term growth trend 1.5 percent Sustained growth above
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 415 Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales. January 27, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 415 Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales January 27, 2012 Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8% Durable Goods Orders and New
More informationBanks at a Glance: Economic and Banking Highlights by State 4Q 2017
Economic and Banking Highlights by State 4Q 2017 These semi-annual reports highlight key indicators of economic and banking conditions within each of the nine states comprising the 12th Federal Reserve
More informationBuffett, Shiller, Bogle & Tobin: Valuations, Forward Returns & Winning The Long-Game
Buffett, Shiller, Bogle & Tobin: Valuations, Forward Returns & Winning The Long-Game February 4, 2019 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice What a difference just a couple of months can make. Since
More informationDebt Growth Reckless or Reasonable?
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Debt Growth Reckless or Reasonable? February 6, 2018 Key takeaways» The availability of credit largely
More informationSPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012
SPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012 Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income
More informationMisdiagnosing The Risk Of Margin Debt
Misdiagnosing The Risk Of Margin Debt December 3, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice This past week, Mark Hulbert wrote an article discussing the recent drop in margin debt. To wit: Plunging
More informationWhen Will U.S. Inflation Return to Target?
When Will U.S. Inflation Return to Target? James Bullard President and CEO Economic Update Breakfast Nov. 14, 2017 Louisville, Ky. Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect
More informationRecord Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike
IN THIS ISSUE: Record Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike November 28, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Household Debt Hit a New Record High in the 3Q 2. Student Loan Delinquencies
More informationUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. Economics 134 Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 19
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Economics 134 Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 19 INCOME INEQUALITY AND MACROECONOMIC BEHAVIOR APRIL 4, 2018 I. OVERVIEW A. Changes in inequality
More informationCommercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
More informationTo fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that
01_chap_murphy.qxd 10/24/03 2:06 PM Page 1 CHAPTER 1 A Review of the 1980s To fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that started in 1980, it s necessary to know something about the
More informationb. Financial innovation and/or financial liberalization (the elimination of restrictions on financial markets) can cause financial firms to go on a
Financial Crises This lecture begins by examining the features of a financial crisis. It then describes the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and the resulting changes in financial regulations.
More informationFebruary 8, 2012 Robert Johnson Director of Economic Analysis
Positive Surprises in Store for 2012? Macro Overview February 8, 2012 Robert Johnson Director of Economic Analysis 1 U.S. Economic Data 2011: Soft, but no recession, Growth Accelerated Through the Year
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook January 2015
Global Economic Outlook January 2015 Philippe WAECHTER Head of Economic Research My twitter account @phil_waechter or http://twitter.com/phil_waechter My blog http://philippewaechter.en.nam.natixis.com
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 358 February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3. March 17, 2011
COMMENTARY NUMBER 358 February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3 March 17, 2011 Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars Fed s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their
More information3 Things: Fed Levitation, Employment, Savings Rate
3 Things: Fed Levitation, Employment, Savings Rate March 31, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Fed Levitation What is going on at the Federal Reserve? On Tuesday, Janet Yellen comes out and
More informationASSESSING THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION: KEY INDICATORS TO MONITOR
Weekly Economic Perspective ASSESSING THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION: KEY INDICATORS TO MONITOR August 2, 2010 Robert F. DeLucia, CFA Consulting Economist Summary and Major Conclusions: Heightened
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
Improving US Household and Business Fundamentals Point to Higher Sales Ahead Emerging markets drive global sales gains, amid temporary US weakness. CONTACTS Carlos Gomes 1..73 Scotiabank Economics carlos.gomes@scotiabank.com
More informationUSED CAR. FINANCING FAQs. FREE ebook! AndyMohr.com. Mohr Means MORE!
USED CAR FINANCING FAQs FREE ebook! Page 2 There s no doubt that buying a car is an exciting process. You get to browse through inventories and explore possibilities. You even get to settle in behind the
More informationWilliam C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS
NFIB Small Business Economic Trends William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade May 9 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Seasonally Change From Contribution
More informationHighly Leveraged Corporate America: All Chickens Come Home to Roost
Highly Leveraged Corporate America: All Chickens Come Home to Roost Introduction The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent Great Recession pushed the US Federal Reserve to deploy two main tools
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, 2015 Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2015 Financial Forecast Richmond,
More information10.2 Recent Shocks to the Macroeconomy Introduction. Housing Prices. Chapter 10 The Great Recession: A First Look
Chapter 10 The Great Recession: A First Look By Charles I. Jones Media Slides Created By Dave Brown Penn State University 10.2 Recent Shocks to the Macroeconomy What shocks to the macroeconomy have caused
More informationTestimony of Dean Baker. Before the Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity of the House Financial Services Committee
Testimony of Dean Baker Before the Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity of the House Financial Services Committee Hearing on the Recently Announced Revisions to the Home Affordable Modification
More informationGoldilocks or the Three Bears?
Goldilocks or the Three Bears? June 11, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. equities continue to grind higher, setting records, with volatility
More informationQuick Credit Repair Guide
1 Quick Credit Repair Guide Beacon score? You will most likely have heard of this bizarre term at some point during your home buying process and wondered what they meant and how they affect the mortgage
More informationNational Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG!
National Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG! June 20, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Over 40 Years of Writing This Newsletter 2. National Debt Not a Problem We Owe It
More informationWilliam C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve
William C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary September 16, 2013 Dawning of a New Era? John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights In our view, Yellen remains the leading candidate to replace
More informationLender Solutions White Paper: Not All Vehicles Depreciate Alike
Lender Solutions White Paper: Not All Vehicles Depreciate Alike The current automotive landscape has proven to be very interesting for lenders as continued pent-up demand is driving expanded growth for
More information7 January Affordability of housing
7 January 2015 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST FNB HOME LOANS 011-6490125 john.loos@fnb.co.za THEO SWANEPOEL: PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST
More informationThe Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD. March 16, 2016
The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD March 16, 216 Recent housing market indicators suggest that housing activity continues to strengthen. Solid residential investment in 215Q4 contributed.3
More informationTHE USED VEHICLE MARKET: BUMPS ON THE ROAD AHEAD CHARLES CHESBROUGH SENIOR ECONOMIST AND SENIOR DIRECTOR OF INDUSTRY INSIGHTS JUNE 2017
THE USED VEHICLE MARKET: BUMPS ON THE ROAD AHEAD CHARLES CHESBROUGH SENIOR ECONOMIST AND SENIOR DIRECTOR OF INDUSTRY INSIGHTS JUNE 2017 Introduction Charles Chesbrough Senior Economist and Senior Director
More informationImmediate Gratification
In an effort to reignite world economic growth, global central banks have introduced unorthodox policies that have distorted market prices. The following discussion highlights the risks investors face.
More information2017 MORTGAGE MARKET OUTLOOK: EXECUTIVE ECONOMIC REPORT JANUARY 2017
2017 MORTGAGE MARKET OUTLOOK: EXECUTIVE ECONOMIC REPORT JANUARY 2017 1 2017 FORECAST OVERVIEW For the 2017 housing market, the outlook is generally positive. The long recovery from the elevated delinquency
More informationThe Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting
The Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting October 19, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why This Economic Recovery Has Been So Disappointing 2. The Fourth Longest Economic Expansion
More informationData Brief. Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy
cepr Center for Economic and Policy Research Data Brief Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy Dean Baker 1 September 7, 2004 CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH 1611 CONNECTICUT
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More informationQuantitative & Strategy
Cam Hui, CFA January 30, 2018 cam@pennock@ideahub.com THE PAIN TRADE SIGNALS FROM THE BOND MARKET Highlights As the 10-year Treasury yield staged an upside breakout at 2.6%, and luminary investors such
More informationSPECIAL REPORT. TD Economics CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS TO LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH
SPECIAL REPORT TD Economics CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS TO LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH Highlights American consumers have has had a rough go of things over the past several years. After plummeting
More informationStudent Loan Debt Worries May Be Overstated
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS June 12, 2018 Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Student Loan Debt Worries May Be Overstated Key takeaways» Today, U.S. student loan debt
More informationDon t Raise the Federal Debt Ceiling, Torpedo the U.S. Housing Market
Don t Raise the Federal Debt Ceiling, Torpedo the U.S. Housing Market Failure to Act Would Have Serious Consequences for Housing Just as the Market Is Showing Signs of Recovery Christian E. Weller May
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
Improving Canadian Auto Loan Market Fundamentals CONTACTS Global sales accelerate further. Subprime auto loans decline in Canada, but lending to higher credit scores picks up. Canadian subprime loans account
More informationGENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. November 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK November 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Overview General Fund revenue through October is $115 million
More informationDebt. In the third quarter of 2016, the upward. Consumer Debt Growth Stalls Despite Strong Sectors. Executive Summary
VOL., ISSUE 3, COVERING 6:Q3 Debt Consumer Debt Growth Stalls Despite Strong Sectors By Lowell R. Ricketts and Don E. Schlagenhauf In the third quarter of 6, the upward trend in per capita consumer debt
More informationMarket Commentary. Economic Summary
Market Commentary 3 rd Quarter 208 Economic Summary The juggernaut that is the U.S. economy continued to roll, as it entered its ninth consecutive year of economic expansion. Until recently, growth has
More informationChapter 10. The Great Recession: A First Look. (1) Spike in oil prices. (2) Collapse of house prices. (2) Collapse in house prices
Discussion sections this week will meet tonight (Tuesday Jan 17) to review Problem Set 1 in Pepper Canyon Hall 106 5:00-5:50 for 11:00 class 6:00-6:50 for 1:30 class Course web page: http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/econ110b.html
More informationCENTER FOR MICROECONOMIC DATA
CENTER FOR MICROECONOMIC DATA WWW.NEWYORKFED.ORG/MICROECONOMICS QUA RTERL Y REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT 20 18:Q4 (RELEASED FEBRUARY 2019 ) FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK RESEARCH AND STATISTICS
More informationChina: The Long and Short of Economic Reform
Global Economics Monthly July 2014 China: The Long and Short of Economic Reform Robert Kahn, Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics O V E R V I E W Bottom Line: China looks on track
More informationThe Lehman Shock Financial Disaster the Effects on Japan. found out an attractive and interesting article, which showed the world economic
1 The Lehman Shock Financial Disaster the Effects on Japan Introduction In the third cycle, I researched about Greece s financial crisis. In the research process, I found out an attractive and interesting
More informationThe Honey Badger Market
The Honey Badger Market January 29, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There is a LOT of optimism in the markets currently. But why shouldn t there be? Speaking at Davos, the head of world
More informationRobert Shiller on Trills, Housing and Market Valuations
Robert Shiller on Trills, Housing and Market Valuations February 16, 2010 by Dan Richards Robert J. Shiller is the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University, and Professor of Finance and
More informationBanks at a Glance: Alaska
Banks at a Glance: Financial Institution Supervision and Credit sf.fisc.publications@sf.frb.org Economic and Banking Highlights Data as of 12/31/216 's economy continued to struggle, driven by weaknesses
More informationTHE 2018 ECONOMY: A BIT BETTER THAN IN 2017
THE 2018 ECONOMY: A BIT BETTER THAN IN 2017 Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs, LLC November 9, 2017 Detroit, MI The Economy is Solid! GDP = C+I+G+(X-M) The Stock Market
More informationFinancial Markets Perspective
Financial Markets Perspective 4101 Main Street, Suite C Hilton Head Island, SC 29926 843.342.3044 www.victoriacapitalus.com FUNDAMENTALS MATTER January 2014 A BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT ECONOMY Last
More informationAdvanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate
Ward Center for Real Estate Studies www.ccim.com Advanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate PPT Handout EXCELLENCE SUCCESS SKILL LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE STRENGTH Copyright 2012 by the CCIM Institute
More informationSeptember Market Overview: Private Distressed Debt. Eric J. Petroff, CFA Director of Research WURTS & ASSOCIATES
September 2008 Market Overview: Private Distressed Debt Eric J. Petroff, CFA Director of Research epetroff@wurts.com WURTS & ASSOCIATES SEATTLE 999 Third Avenue Suite 3650 Seattle, Washington 98104 206.622.3700
More informationFEATURE ARTICLE: SUBPRIME LESSONS NOT LEARNED FEATURE ARTICLE: ARE CENTRAL BANKS SHOOTING BLANKS?
1. FEATURE ARTICLE: SUBPRIME LESSONS NOT LEARNED FEATURE ARTICLE: ARE CENTRAL BANKS SHOOTING BLANKS? U.S. Federal Reserve, Washington, D.C. 1 Page 1 SUBPRIME LESSONS NOT LEARNED In the aftermath of the
More informationNormalizing Monetary Policy
Normalizing Monetary Policy Martin Feldstein The current focus of Federal Reserve policy is on normalization of monetary policy that is, on increasing short-term interest rates and shrinking the size of
More informationEconomists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Economists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. IN THIS ISSUE: 1. First Trust Predicts
More informationMasaaki Shirakawa: The transition from high growth to stable growth Japan s experience and implications for emerging economies
Masaaki Shirakawa: The transition from high growth to stable growth Japan s experience and implications for emerging economies Remarks by Mr Masaaki Shirakwa, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Bank
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationOut of the Shadows: Projected Levels for Future REO Inventory
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Number 2010-14 October 19, 2010 Out of the Shadows: Projected Levels for Future REO Inventory Guhan Venkatu Nearly one homeowner in ten is more than 90 days delinquent on his mortgage
More informationBanks at a Glance: Economic and Banking Highlights by State 2Q 2018
Economic and Banking Highlights by State 2Q 2018 These semi-annual reports highlight key indicators of economic and banking conditions within each of the nine states comprising the 12th Federal Reserve
More informationIs a Recession Imminent? Why Investors Should Not Fear For Now.
Is a Recession Imminent? Why Investors Should Not Fear For Now. 2016 Contents Overview 1 Are We Close to a Recession Now? How Can We Tell? Indicator 1: Real Income 4 Indicator 2: Employment 8 Indicator
More informationRic Battellino: Recent financial developments
Ric Battellino: Recent financial developments Address by Mr Ric Battellino, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Annual Stockbrokers Conference, Sydney, 26 May 2011. * * * Introduction
More informationTHE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001
THE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001 By Dean Baker December 20, 2001 Now that it is officially acknowledged that a recession has begun, most economists are predicting that it will soon be
More informationBeyond The realm Of possibilities
Beyond The realm Of possibilities 2013 2nd Quarter Report Table of Contents - Outlook of U.S. Real Estate 3-16 - Products Performance Review 17-20 - Performance: DFSP Series 21-24 - Market Outlook 25-28
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
March 19 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Weak February Job Growth, and
More informationGauging Current Conditions:
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation Vol. 2 2005 The gauges below indicate the economic outlook for the current year and for 2006 for factors that typically
More informationBMW Group Corporate and Governmental Affairs
4 August 2009 - Please check against delivery - Statement by Dr. Friedrich Eichiner Member of the Board of Management of BMW AG, Finance 4 August 2009, 10:00 a.m. Ladies and Gentlemen, Now I would like
More informationDEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT. Number 52. August 1, Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression
DEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT Number 52 August 1, 2009 Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression Recession Started a Year Earlier Than Official Reckoning Business Contraction Triggered Systemic
More information