Is the FHA Producing Sustainable Homeownership?
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- Bethanie Small
- 5 years ago
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1 Is the FHA Producing Sustainable Homeownership? 2013 Cleveland Fed Policy Summit, September 9 th, 2013 Affordable Housing, Mortgage Underwriting, and Default: The Case of the FHA Joseph Tracy, FRBNY These views are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
2 Former FHA Commissioner David Stevens in a speech on 12 December 2009 described the FHA s mission as follows. As a mission-driven organization, FHA s goal is to provide sustainable homeownership options for qualified borrowers. Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable
3 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Purchase mortgage in 2007
4 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008
5 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008 Defaults in 2009
6 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Mortgage Perspective: Success Failure Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008 Defaults in 2009
7 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Mortgage Perspective: 1 success & 1 failure Success Failure Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008 Defaults in 2009
8 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Borrower Perspective: Failure Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008 Defaults in 2009
9 Simple question: What is the FHA s recent record on sustainable Borrower Perspective: 0 success & 1 failure Failure Purchase mortgage in 2007 Internal refinance in 2008 Defaults in 2009
10 Borrower based data architecture is required: CoreLogic identified through deeds records analysis adjacent FHA mortgages for the same property Created a 5% random sample of FHA mortgages where we can analyze the data at either the borrower or the mortgage level Follow the 2007, 2008 and 2009 vintages of FHA borrowers performance data through September 2011 Closely match published FHA data on characteristics of mortgage originations by fiscal year Relative frequency of FHA borrowers with multiple mortgages: 2 mortgages: percent 3 mortgages: 0.62 percent 4 mortgages: 0.03 percent
11 Comparison of mortgage and borrower performance Data: FHA originations from 2007 mid 2010; performance data through Sept 2011 Mortgage data: Active Default (90+) Prepay Combined
12 Comparison of mortgage and borrower performance Data: FHA originations from 2007 mid 2010; performance data through Sept 2011 Mortgage data: Active Default (90+) Prepay Combined
13 Comparison of mortgage and borrower performance Data: FHA originations from 2007 mid 2010; performance data through Sept 2011 Mortgage data: Active Default (90+) Prepay Combined Borrower data: Active Default (90+) Prepay Combined
14 Does data architecture matter for forecasts? Baseline Prepayment Hazards: Mortgage vs Borrower By Mortgage By Borrower Experience
15 Forecasts to 10-year since origination: Table 6. Vintage projections at 10 years from origination Still Active Default Prepay Maximum Sustainability Rate Combined: Note: Vintages represent calendar years. Maximum sustainability rate = Still Active + Prepay + Default*cure rate. Reference: Caplin, Andrew, Anna Cororaton and Joseph Tracy. Is the FHA Creating Sustainable Homeownership? NBER Working Paper No , June 2012.
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES IS THE FHA CREATING SUSTAINABLE HOMEOWNERSHIP? Andrew Caplin Anna Cororaton Joseph Tracy
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES IS THE FHA CREATING SUSTAINABLE HOMEOWNERSHIP? Andrew Caplin Anna Cororaton Joseph Tracy Working Paper 18190 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18190 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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