Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.

Transcription

1 CREDIT OPINION Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. Semiannual update - H1 18 Update Summary RATINGS Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. Domicile Netherlands Long Term CRR Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating - Fgn Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Debt Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term Deposit Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. (NWB Bank)'s Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of a1 reflects (1) the bank's role as the second-largest lender to the Dutch public sector; () its entrenched franchise in a niche market which results in exceptional stability in its fundamentals; () its very high asset quality because its portfolio is mostly comprised of loans to Dutch public entities; (4) its high capitalization, yet a high leverage; and (5) its adequate funding profile and liquidity position with limited maturity mismatches. NWB Bank's deposit and senior unsecured ratings reflect (1) the bank's standalone credit strength of a1; () the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, resulting in a two-notch LGF uplift from the bank's BCA of a1, given its significant volume of senior unsecured debt; and () a government support uplift of two notches, reflecting a very high support probability from the government of the Netherlands ( stable) owing to the entity's public ownership and its role as one of the principal financiers of the Dutch public sector. The bank's Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment of (cr)/prime-1(cr) is four notches above its BCA, reflecting the substantial volume of bail-in-able liabilities protecting its operating obligations and the very high probability of government support. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios Nederlandse Waterschapsbank (BCA: a1) 7% Median a1-rated banks 89.% 6% 5% Contacts 4% Guillaume Lucien Baugas VP-Senior Analyst guillaume.lucien-baugas@moodys.com Jeanne Harrison VP-Senior Analyst jeanne.harrison@moodys.com Romy Van Rooij Associate Analyst romy.vanrooij@moodys.com Alain Laurin Associate Managing Director alain.laurin@moodys.com Nick Hill MD-Banking nick.hill@moodys.com % % % 1% %.1% 18.5% % Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Market Funds/ Assets/Tangible Tangible Banking Assets Banking Assets Liquidity Factors (RHS) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% % % 1% %

2 Credit strengths» Major lender to the Dutch public sector and fully owned by Dutch public entities» High-quality assets as most of its loans are % risk-weighted (99%)» Profitability commensurate with the bank's specific mandate and low risk profile» Large volume of senior debt, resulting in deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings benefiting from a very low loss given failure and a two-notch uplift from the BCA» Very high probability of government support, resulting in a two-notch uplift for its debt and deposit ratings Credit challenges» Relatively large single-borrower concentrations given the bank's public policy mandate» Mismatches between assets and liabilities are limited and mitigated by diversified funding and eligibility of loans to central bank financing» Uncertainty on regulatory rules, which will apply to the computation of capital Rating outlook We do not expect any significant change in NWB Bank's creditworthiness in the near term, as reflected in the stable outlook on the bank's ratings. Our view is also underpinned by a benign economic environment in the Netherlands. Factors that could lead to an upgrade Upward pressure on NWB Bank's BCA could result from a lower reliance on wholesale funding, however this is unlikely given the bank's business model. An upgrade of the bank's BCA will not trigger any upgrade of the bank's deposit and senior unsecured ratings, which are already at. Factors that could lead to a downgrade Downward pressure on NWB Bank's BCA could result from (1) a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the Dutch public sector; () a significant increase in the bank's non-% risk-weighted assets; () a significant increase in its funding gaps; or (4) a significant deterioration in its solvency. A downward movement of the bank's BCA could result in downgrades of all ratings. NWB Bank's ratings could also be downgraded if the ratings of the government of the Netherlands were downgraded. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

3 Key indicators Exhibit Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. (Unconsolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (EUR million) Total Assets (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) ,91 97,47 1,679 1, ,1.8 75,69 9,8 1,6 1, ,47 8,57 1,5 1, ,64. 74,78 81,177 1,96 1, , CAGR/Avg. 7,88 85,718 1, 1, , ,94.95 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP. [] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts. [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime. [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presented. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profile Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. is a Dutch credit institution that provides funding for water authorities (waterschappen), as well as lending to municipalities, provincial authorities and to other public-sector entities in the Netherlands, including government guaranteed social housing, healthcare and educational institutions. The bank does not provide any services to individuals or companies. NWB Bank was founded in 1954 and is based in The Hague. The bank is owned by the Dutch water authorities (81%), the Dutch state (17%) and provinces (%). Detailed credit considerations NWB Bank is a major lender to the Dutch public sector, fully owned by Dutch public entities A long-standing entity in the Dutch public-sector financing business, NWB Bank is an established institution with a strong franchise. With a long-term loan book of 46.8 billion (nominal value) as of June 18, the bank's overall market share of Dutch public sector lending was around %. The bank's main competitor, Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten N.V. (BNG Bank, long-term deposit stable, long-term senior unsecured stable, BCA a1), has a market share of around 55%. We expect NWB Bank and BNG Bank to continue to dominate Dutch public-sector lending, given their ownership, mandate and advantageous funding costs compared with commercial banks. The government's involvement at NWB Bank is substantial. As per the institution's Articles of Association, only the State of the Netherlands and other legal entities governed by public law may hold the bank's shares. As a bank established with an explicit public policy mandate, NWB Bank benefits from an entrenched franchise in a niche market. These conditions result in exceptional stability in terms of asset quality, capital, profitability and in a very low risk profile overall. We apply a positive qualitative adjustment of one notch in our scorecard to reflect this feature. High asset quality dominated by % risk-weighted assets NWB Bank's credit rating is based on the high quality of the local government sector that the bank serves, as shown by its problem loan ratio of %, which is reflected in its Asset Risk score of in our scorecard. The bank lends exclusively to the public sector and has never recorded a loss on its loan book. The bank's public policy mandate translates into relatively large single-borrower concentrations in the lending portfolio. However, this concentration risk is largely mitigated by the fact that the bulk of the bank's lending (99% of total exposures, excluding fair value adjustments at June 18) relates to borrowers benefiting from a direct or indirect guarantee Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

4 from the Dutch government. These exposures entail no capital charge from a regulatory perspective (as a chartered bank, NWB Bank is subject to all banking regulations) and include Dutch municipal and provincial authorities, water authorities, housing associations and the healthcare sector. The bank has also started export financing under the central government s Export Credit Guarantee. A very small portion of the lending portfolio (around 1% of the bank's total exposures) does not benefit from any support from the government and is hence subject to capital charges. These exposures mainly include lending to utility companies and public-private partnerships (PPP). NWB Bank launched several PPP financing activities after updating its Articles of Association in 1. The bank purports to confine this new business to infrastructure and accommodation projects in the Netherlands on behalf of the Dutch central or local governments. While PPP financing implies higher risk for the bank, this business will not materially alter its creditworthiness and its overall risk profile if total volumes and the size of single exposures remain limited, in line with NWB Bank's stated intention. NWB Bank's liquidity portfolio is restricted to specific highly rated securities or securities guaranteed by the public sector and cash. Exhibit Breakdown of loan portfolio by sector as of year-end 17 ( 5 billion) Waterboards 11% Other % Municipal authorities 14% Healthcare institutions 7% Housing corporations 65% Source: company disclosures Funding profile and liquidity position are adequate Similar to most peers in Europe, NWB Bank is entirely wholesale funded. The bank issues debt in multiple currencies and markets, which is subscribed to by a wide array of investors. This funding strategy is prudent and similar to most other European promotional lenders. NWB Bank's asset and liability management entails some maturity mismatches. These maturity mismatches could have negative implications on NWB Bank's interest margins, whereby the bank's spreads would rise significantly for a prolonged period of time and imply an increase in the refinancing costs of outstanding loans. However, funding gaps have been significantly reduced in 17 and H1 18 and refinancing risks on the outstanding loan portfolio are currently very limited. Additionally, gaps, if any, are well managed:» Due to the limited optionality in its books, all cash flows are highly predictable except for collateral posting needs on derivatives.» Liquidity risk is managed through a liquidity buffer consisting of highly liquid assets and cash ( 1.4 billion at year-end 17), as well as immediate drawing capacity on the European Central Bank collateralised by public-sector loans already pledged by NWB Bank at the central bank ( 11.8 billion at year-end 17). If necessary, the bulk of the bank s loan book ( 47 billion, nominal value) qualifies for central bank funding.» Funding gaps are maintained within reasonable limits and by NWB Bank's good standing in the capital markets. The European Commission's (EC) decision to include bonds issued by promotional banks (banks where lending to the public sector represents more than 9% of total loans) within level 1 category assets (the highest quality of the High-Quality Liquid Assets) is also favourable for NWB Bank. It has further enhanced financial institutions' appetite for the bank's securities. As of June 18, NWB Bank's liquidity coverage ratio was 177% and its net stable funding ratio was 1%. These factors are reflected in the bank's Combined Liquidity score of baa. 4 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

5 Capital position is likely to be strengthened owing to regulatory requirements NWB Bank's capitalisation is adequate in relation to its low-risk assets. The bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) capital ratio was 6.9% as of June 18 (56.% as of June 17) compared to a regulatory requirement of 7.65% for 181. However, owing to the close to zero risk weight of the bank's assets, its CET 1 capital ratio translates into high nominal leverage. The bank's leverage ratio was.5% at June 18. NWB Bank has not paid any dividend since 11 to be able to meet the % threshold announced then as the likely outcome. The bank also raised million of Additional Tier 1 capital in 15 and 16 for this purpose. Exhibit 4 Tier 1 leverage ratios improved regularly in recent years, but are still short of % Tier 1 leverage ratios on a fully-loaded basis.%.5%.5%.5% 17 H1 18.%.1%.% 1.8% 1.8% % 1.5% 1.%.5% % Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics. The EC is proposing amendments to the Capital Requirements Regulation, published at the end of November 16, which state that public development institutions' exposures to regional governments, local authorities or public-sector entities in relation to public sector investments should be excluded from the denominator of the leverage ratio. NWB Bank's leverage ratio, based on its current capital, could result in a leverage ratio substantially in excess of the % threshold if this rule were to be implemented and applicable to the institution. For more details, please refer to European lenders to local governments: adequate capitalisation despite expected relaxation in leverage requirements, published in March 17. We therefore assign a Capital score of despite the bank's high nominal leverage. Profitability is commensurate with the bank's specific mandate and low risk profile NWB Bank's profitability is on average moderate because it provides, in accordance with its mandate, cost-effective funding to the Dutch public sector. As a bank owned by its own customers, the bank has no profit maximising intentions. The average profit generated by the bank is commensurate with its low risk profile. NWB Bank's net profit has continuously increased since 1, primarily thanks to an increase in net interest income. While lending volumes have hardly changed, the combined effect of the repricing of new production and the decrease in funding costs over the past few years has had a positive effect on its interest results. In 18, the bank expects its net profit to be slightly lower than the 17 level, due to the anticipated gradual normalization of funding rates in the money market due to the phasing out of the ECB s accommodative monetary policy. Operating with a relatively small staff (65 employees as of June 18), NWB Bank's efficiency is good, although regulatory levies weigh quite heavily on its total costs. The bank's overall cost-to-income ratio was % in H1 18. Excluding bank tax and resolution levy, the cost-to-income ratio was 1.9%. These factors are reflected in NWB Bank's Profitability score of ba. 5 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

6 Support and structural considerations Loss Given Failure analysis Despite its ownership and public mandate, NWB Bank falls in the scope of the EU Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive, which we consider to be an operational resolution regime. We assume residual tangible common equity of the lower of the actual equity and % of tangible banking assets, losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 5% runoff in junior wholesale deposits, a 5% runoff in preferred deposits, and assign a 5% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. The proportion of deposits considered junior is 6%. These are in line with our standard assumptions. Our LGF analysis indicates a very low loss given failure for deposits and senior unsecured debts, resulting in two notches of LGF uplift from the bank's Adjusted BCA. In the LGF table below, deposits designate NWB Bank's funds entrusted and the preference shares designate the Additional Tier 1 capital attracted by the bank. Government support considerations Despite the objectives of and limitations on government support embedded in the Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive, the scope of which includes NWB Bank, we expect a very high probability of government support for the bank's deposits and senior unsecured debts, resulting in a two-notch uplift for both debt classes. Owing to the bank's ownership and public policy mission, the potential for support is considerably greater than for purely commercial banks, which can be affected by a bail-in. The very high support assumptions include the support that would come (1) from the Dutch public sector (including the central government) acting as the shareholder of the bank, and () from the government stepping in to address systemic risk. Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss suffered in the event of default, and () apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. NWB Bank's CR Assessment is positioned at (cr) The CR Assessment, prior to government support is positioned three notches above the Adjusted BCA of a1, based on the buffer against default provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments. The main difference with our Advanced LGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default on certain senior obligations, rather than expected loss, therefore we focus purely on subordination and take no account of the volume of the instrument class. The CR Assessment also benefits from one notch of government support. This reflects our view that any support provided by governmental authorities to a bank which benefits senior unsecured debt or deposits is very likely to benefit operating activities and obligations reflected by the CR Assessment as well, consistent with our belief that governments are likely to maintain such operations as a going concern in order to reduce contagion and preserve a bank's critical functions. About Moody's Bank Scorecard Our scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. 6 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

7 Rating methodology and scorecard factors Exhibit 5 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Strong + Factor Historic Ratio Initial Score Expected Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver # Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans % Quality of assets Long-run loss performance Capital TCE / RWA 64.% Risk-weighted capitalisation Nominal leverage.1% b1 ba Earnings quality Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 89.% caa baa Term structure Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 18.5% baa a Additional liquidity resources a1 aa Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA b Balance Sheet in-scope (EUR million) 1,1 6,147 4,549 1,598 54, 9 1,679 8,88 Other liabilities Deposits Preferred deposits Junior Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Preference shares (bank) Equity Total Tangible Banking Assets 7 1% Market funding quality baa a 1 1 aa-a a1 a1 % in-scope 5.% 7.4% 5.5% 1.9% 64.9%.4%.% 1% at-failure (EUR million) 1,77 5,5 4,1 1,199 54, 9 1,679 8,88 % at-failure 6.1% 6.6% 5.% 1.4% 64.9%.4%.% 1% Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

8 Debt class Counterparty Risk Rating Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall Notching LGF Assigned Additional Preliminary LGF notching Rating Instrument Sub- Instrument SubDe Jure De Facto Notching Guidance notching Assessment volume + ordination volume + ordination vs. subordination subordination Adjusted BCA (cr).4% 67.% aa.4% 67.%.4% aa Instrument class Counterparty Risk Rating Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Loss Given Failure notching Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment (cr) aa aa Government Support notching Local Currency Rating 1 1 (cr) - Foreign Currency Rating - [1] Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 6 Category NEDERLANDSE WATERSCHAPSBANK N.V. Moody's Rating Outlook Counterparty Risk Rating Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Issuer Rating Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper Other Short Term Stable /P-1 /P-1 a1 a1 (cr)/p-1(cr) P-1 (P)P-1 Source: Moody's Investors Service 8 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

9 Endnotes 1 This ratio includes 4.5% Pillar 1 requirement, 1.5% Pillar requirement and 1.875% phased in Capital Conservation buffer. The fully-loaded requirement is expected to be 7.75% as the Capital Conservation buffers will reach its final levels of % 9 Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18

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11 CLIENT SERVICES 11 Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V.: Semiannual update - H1 18