Credit Opinion: EBS Ltd

Transcription

1 Credit Opinion: EBS Ltd Global Credit Research - 26 Mar 2015 Dublin, Ireland Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr Other Short Term -Dom Curr Parent: Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Subordinate Jr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr Other Short Term -Dom Curr Moody's Rating Rating(s) Under Review *Ba2/NP **Ba3 **(P)B2 (P)NP Rating(s) Under Review *Ba2/NP **Ba3 **B2 **(P)Caa2 (P)NP * Rating(s) within this class was/were placed on review on March 17, 2015 ** Placed under review for possible upgrade on March 17, 2015 Contacts Analyst Phone Dany Castiglione/London Carlos Suarez Duarte/London Johannes Wassenberg/London Maija Sankauskaite/London Key Indicators EBS Ltd (Consolidated Financials)[1] [2]12-13 [2]12-12 [2]12-11 [2]12-10 [2]12-09 Avg. Total Assets (EUR million) 14, , , , ,505.6 [3]-10.0 Total Assets (USD million) 19, , , , ,855.0 [3]-10.9 Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) [3]5.7 Tangible Common Equity (USD million) , , [3]4.6 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) [4]17.1 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) [5]6.5 Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss [4]180.1 Reserve) (%)

2 Net Interest Margin (%) [4]0.8 PPI / Average RWA (%) [5]0.9 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) [4]-2.1 Cost / Income Ratio (%) [4]52.1 Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) [4]40.5 Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) [4]14.6 Gross Loans / Total Deposits (%) [4]149.5 Source: Moody's [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel II; IFRS [3] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on IFRS reporting periods [4] IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation [5] Basel II & IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation Opinion SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE On March 17 we placed EBS Ltd (EBS)'s long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings of Ba2 and Ba3 respectively on review for upgrade. Moreover we placed the subordinated debt rating on review for upgrade. The Not-Prime short-term deposit rating has not been affected by the March rating action. EBS's standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of reflects the bank's: (1) established position in the Irish mortgage and savings market; (2) its position as a fully-owned subsidiary of Allied Irish Banks (AIB, rated Ba2/Ba3 on Review for Upgrade, ) as well as the challenges the bank faces in terms of asset quality. The bank's capital levels are relatively light, as most of the capital is held at the parent level. The review for upgrade on the deposit, senior and subordinated unsecured debt ratings for EBS was underpinned by the bank's standalone credit strength and also takes into account the introduction of our new methodology, and specifically our advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis. Since EBS' BCA is aligned to its parent's standalone credit strength because of the substantial integration between the two entities and the fact that the EBS is managed as business division of AIB, we do not produce a standalone scorecard for EBS. Please refer to AIB's scorecard to see how the BCA is assigned. Moreover, as EBS is Ireland-based and is part of the same resolution perimeter of its parent company, the LGF analysis is done at AIB consolidated level. Please refer to AIB's LGF analysis to see how the long-term deposit, senior unsecured and subordinated ratings are assigned. EBS'S BCA IS SUPPORTED BY ITS MODERATE+ MACRO PROFILE In line with its parent company, EBS's macro profile is mainly driven by its exposure to Ireland (which has a `Moderate' macro profile). Irish banks benefit from a dynamic and open economy with a very high level of wealth, which counterbalance the country's relatively small GDP. Ireland's very high institutional strength allowed policymakers to effectively address the ramifications of the financial crisis through successive administrations, while susceptibility to event risk is low and primarily driven by external factors. Despite the material deleveraging of the private sector over the past three years, the stock of private debt remains elevated and will continue to weigh down banks' credit fundamentals. Funding conditions have materially improved, but we expect banks' access to capital to remain limited. Additionally, even though the industry structure is highly concentrated, the barriers to entry are relatively low compared with other non-european countries. Being part of AIB, EBS also benefits from its parent's exposure to the United Kingdom (`Very Strong - `). Overall we assign a macro profile of Moderate + for EBS. Rating Drivers - Profitability is negatively impacted by impairment losses and deleveraging, although improving - Mortgage asset quality remains an issue - Capital position depends on AIB

3 - Improving funding profile backed by a large customer deposits base Rating Outlook Being part of AIB, the review on EBS's long-term deposit, senior unsecured and subordinated ratings was triggered by the introduction of our new methodology, and specifically our advanced Loss Given Failure analysis, which applies to EBS and AIB given that they are subject to an operational resolution regime under the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). The review will focus on the group consolidated liability structure, in particular the amount of deposits and senior long-term debt outstanding, and the amount of debt subordinated to both instruments. We expect the ratings of deposits, senior unsecured and subordinated debt to be either affirmed or upgraded by one notch, depending on the degree of loss-given-failure, and to include one notch of government support, reflecting a moderate probability of support, for long-term deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings. What Could Change the Rating - Up Upward pressure on EBS's BCA could develop from an upgrade of its parent's standalone credit assessment. Other elements that could exert upward pressure in the medium term are: (1) a sustained recovery of asset-quality indicators; (2) a return to profitability and improved efficiency metrics; and (3) further improvement in funding and liquidity profile. A positive change in AIB's BCA would likely affect all of EBS's other ratings. EBS's deposit and senior debt ratings could also be upgraded if its parent bank were to issue significant amounts of senior and/or subordinated long-term debt. What Could Change the Rating - Down EBS's BCA could be adversely affected by a downgrade of AIB's standalone credit assessment. Additionally, the bank's BCA could be adversely affected by (1) an un-anticipated deterioration in the bank's existing capital buffers; (2) an unexpected deterioration in the bank's profitability metrics; and (3) a material deterioration in its liquidity or funding position. DETAILED RATING CONSIDERATIONS Data in the following sections is sourced from the 2013 annual report of EBS unless otherwise stated. PROFITABILITY IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY IMPAIRMENT LOSSES AND DELEVERAGING EBS reported a pre-tax loss of EUR243 million in 2013, compared to a loss of EUR724 million in The 2013 result was driven by the EUR401 million (2012: EUR229 million) loan impairment charges, while the 2012 negative profit was mostly due to a EUR668 million loss on sale of certain loans and advances to customers. The reported net interest margin, which included the fees paid under the ELG scheme, was 113 bps in 2013, 31 bps higher than in 2012 (82 bps), mainly due to the lower cost of retail and wholesale funding. Reported operating expenses went down by EUR11 million (-13%) compared to 2012, primarily driven by gains on the pension plan. As a consequences and also owing to higher income, the reported normalised cost-to-income ratio went down to 42% (2012: 54%). We expect profitability to improve in 2014 and 2015, owing to the improving economic environment, lower impairment charges and a further decrease in the cost of funding. ASSET QUALITY OF MORTGAGES REMAINS AN ISSUE EBS's stock of impaired loans has increased to EUR3.3 billion at end-2013, or 25% of gross loans, from EUR3 billion at end-2012, mostly as a result of the still challenging, albeit improving, operating environment. The provision coverage of impaired loans was 40.5% at end-2013 (2012: 31%). At end-2013, the core portfolio consisted of EUR12.5 billion of owner-occupier residential mortgages, 23.3% of which are more than 90 days in arrears and/ or impaired (up from 20.0% at end-2012). Of the total owner-occupier mortgage loan balances 9% were in some kind of forbearance arrangement at end-2013 (2012: 10.4%). The noncore portfolio decreased to EUR836 million, or 6.2% of gross loans, from EUR886 million, or 6.4% of gross loans, at end The non-core portfolio represented exposure to residential buy-to-let (68.8%) and commercial mortgage loans (31.2%). CAPITAL POSITION SUFFICIENT BUT DEPENDS ON AIB The losses reported in recent years led to the injection of capital from the government in 2010 and then the 2011

4 PCAR process required EBS to raise a total of EUR1.5 billion, including a buffer of EUR0.3 billion. The requirement was met in July 2011 when AIB took over EBS and the Irish Government provided the EUR1.5bn to AIB. Capital is now managed at the AIB level and we expect AIB to ensure that EBS remains adequately capitalised in line with the regulatory requirements. At end-2013 EBS had a core tier 1 capital ratio of 9.5%, up from 7.9% at end-2012, including the EUR330 million AIB injected into EBS in 2013 to offset some of the losses due to loan impairments. IMPROVING FUNDING PROFILE BACKED BY A LARGE CUSTOMER DEPOSITS BASE ECB funding accounted for 7.5% of total funding of EBS at end-2013 (down from 16% in 2012), which represents an improvement compared to past years. The central bank's funds were replaced with parental funding, as these increased to 5.1% of total funding at end-2013 (2012:0.1%). Customer deposits went down by 8.1% in 2013 to EUR9.3 billion (2012: EUR10.1 billion), primarily because of a strategy of optimisation of cost of funding. However these funds remain the main source of funding, accounting for 71.9% (2012: 67%) of total funding. This decrease mainly drove the increase in loans-to-deposits ratio to 143.9% (2012: 137.4%). NOTCHING CONSIDERATIONS LOSS GIVEN FAILURE AND ADDITIONAL NOTCHING AIB and EBS are subject to the EU Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in "junior" wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits, and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. These are in line with our standard assumptions. As both banks are based in Ireland, we consider AIB and EBS as being part of the same resolution perimeter. Consequently, the below LGF analysis is made at AIB's consolidated level. Our initial LGF analysis indicates that AIB and EBS's deposits are likely to face very low loss-given-failure, due to the loss absorption provided by subordinated debt and, potentially, by senior unsecured debt should deposits be treated preferentially in a resolution, as well as the substantial volume of deposits themselves. This results in a Preliminary Rating Assessment (PRA) of two notches above from the BCA. For AIB and EBS' senior unsecured debt, we expect a low loss-given-failure due to the loss absorption provided by its own volume and the amount of debt subordinated to it. We expect this will result in a PRA of one notch above the BCA. For subordinated debt we expect a moderate loss-given-failure due to the loss absorption provided by its own volume and the amount of debt subordinated to it. GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The implementation of the BRRD has caused us to reconsider the potential for government support to benefit certain creditors. We now expect a moderate probability of government support for AIB and EBS's deposits, resulting in a one-notch uplift to the PRA. We expect to assign the same support probability to senior unsecured debt once our review is complete. For other junior securities, we continue to believe that potential government is low and these ratings do not therefore include any related uplift. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history Moody s Corporation, Moody s Investors Service, Inc., Moody s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES ( MIS ) ARE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES,

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