Credit Opinion: Santander UK PLC
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1 Credit Opinion: Santander UK PLC Global Credit Research - 15 Apr 2016 London, United Kingdom Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Issuer Rating Senior Unsecured Shelf Subordinate Jr Subordinate Pref. Stock -Dom Curr Pref. Stock Non-cumulative -Dom Curr AN Structured Issues Limited Outlook Positive Bkd Sr Unsec MTN (P)A1 Bkd Other Short Term (P)P-1 Abbey National North America LLC Bkd Commercial Paper P-1 Abbey National Treasury Services PLC (US Br.) Moody's Rating Stable(m) Aa3/P-1 a3 a3 Aa2(cr)/P- 1(cr) A1 (P)A1 Baa1 Baa2 (hyb) Baa2 (hyb) Baa3 (hyb) Counterparty Risk Assessment Aa2(cr)/P- 1(cr) Commercial Paper P-1 Contacts Analyst Phone Dany Castiglione/London Carlos Suarez Duarte/London Nicholas Hill/Paris Maija Sankauskaite/London Key Indicators Santander UK PLC (Consolidated Financials) [1] [2]12-15 [2]12-14 [2]12-13 [3]12-12 [3]12-11 Avg. Total Assets (GBP million) 260, , , , ,251.0 [4]-0.6 Total Assets (EUR million) 352, , , , ,747.3 [4]2.6 Total Assets (USD million) 383, , , , ,780.2 [4]-1.9 Tangible Common Equity (GBP million) Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) 12, , , , ,552.6 [4]7.4 17, , , , ,436.1 [4]10.8 Tangible Common Equity (USD million) 18, , , , ,845.7 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) [4]6.0 [5]1.3 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) [6]13.8
2 Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan [5]21.9 Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) [5]1.3 PPI / Average RWA (%) [6]2.5 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) [5]0.5 Cost / Income Ratio (%) [5]51.9 Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) [5]29.5 Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets [5]20.6 (%) Gross loans / Due to customers (%) [5]127.5 Source: Moody's [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on IFRS reporting periods [5] IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation [6] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in & IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation Opinion SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE We rate Santander UK Plc (Santander UK)'s deposits and senior unsecured debt at Aa3/Prime-1 and A1/Prime-1 respectively. These ratings are underpinned by (1) the bank's a3 baseline credit assessment (BCA); (2) the results of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis which leads to a Preliminary Rating Assessment (PRA) for deposits and senior unsecured debt two and one notches above the BCA, respectively and; (3) a moderate expectation of government support, resulting in a further notch of uplift above the PRA for both deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings. Santander UK's immediate parent's, Santander UK Group Holdings Plc (HoldCo), issuer rating is Baa1. We also assign a Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) of Aa2(cr)/Prime-1(cr) to Santander UK. Santander UK's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of a3 is underpinned by: (1) its strong franchise in UK mortgage and saving products; (2) its solid earnings generation capacity and low earnings volatility, on the back of its mainly retail-driven business model; and (3) its robust capital and improved leverage levels. The BCA also incorporates the bank's: (1) increasing risk profile as it develops its Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) lending franchise; and (2) ongoing reliance on wholesale funding albeit mitigated by a sizable liquid asset buffer. The rating also incorporates our view that Santander UK is independently managed with limited financial and direct operational connections to its parent, Banco Santander S.A. (A3/(P)A3 Stable, baa1). As a result, the rating of Santander UK is relatively insulated from potential rating pressure on its parent. Furthermore, since the bank is regulated by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is deemed to be a domestic systemically important institution, we believe the authority is unlikely to allow Santander UK's financial position to substantially weaken as a result of exposure to its parent. RATING DRIVERS - Strong franchise in UK mortgage and saving products benefiting from positive operating environment - Low earnings volatility underpinned by the bank's conservative risk profile and stable retail franchise, although cost base slightly elevated due to ongoing investments - Solid capital levels supported by improving leverage metrics - Good asset quality, but exposure to riskier SME sector is increasing from a low base - Improving funding profile and sufficient liquidity buffer, although reliance on wholesale funding persists - "Very Strong-" macro profile RATING OUTLOOK
3 The stable outlook on Santander UK 's deposit rating incorporates the improvements in the bank's solvency profile and more generally in its credit fundamentals. These elements, together with the improvements in its franchise and balance sheet risk, should allow for some level of deterioration in its arrears which may result from loan seasoning and a greater proportion of SME lending in its loan portfolio. The positive outlook on Santander UK 's senior debt rating reflects the group's near-term funding plans, which will likely involve the issue of senior unsecured debt at the holding company level, providing additional protection to creditors of the operating entity. What Could Change the Rating - Up The BCA could be upgraded if Santander UK: (1) shows a structural reduction in its reliance on market funding; (2) maintains its strong asset quality despite growth in its SME lending portfolio; and (3) continues to improve its solvency profile through material internal capital generation. A positive change in Santander UK's BCA would likely affect all ratings. Santander UK's' deposit and senior debt ratings could also be upgraded if the bank or its holding company were to issue significant amounts of long-term debt and more subordinated debt. What Could Change the Rating - Down The bank's BCA could be downgraded because of: (1) significant deterioration of Santander UK's asset quality metrics; (2) material weakening of profitability, which would reduce the bank's loss-absorption capacity; and (3) deterioration in the bank's funding and liquidity position, including a further reduction in the quantity or quality of its liquidity buffer. A downward movement in Santander UK's BCA would likely result in downgrades of all ratings. Santander UK's ratings could also be downgraded due to a change in the liability structure, most likely a reduction in the volume of bail-in-able debt which would increase loss levels-given-failure. DETAILED RATING CONSIDERATIONS The data in the following sections is sourced from the consolidated Santander UK Group (which includes Holdco and Santander UK)'s financial statements unless otherwise stated. STRONG FRANCHISE IN UK MORTGAGE AND SAVING PRODUCTS BENEFITING FROM POSITIVE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT Santander UK ranks among the largest providers of financial services to retail customers in the country, having a sizeable and established residential mortgage franchise. The bank is also gradually expanding its corporate lending footprint to continue diversifying its source of revenues, in particular toward the SME sector, which will also support improvements in its profitability metrics. Santander UK also has a significant market share of deposits in the UK. The bank continues to strengthen its retail banking franchise, growing a loyal and more stable customer base through the development of its Current Account strategy. The bank is a key subsidiary of Banco Santander, with its total assets accounting for 29% of the group's assets as at end-2015 (28% at end-2014) and also contributing around 23% of its attributable profit in 2015 (19% in full year 2014). LOW EARNINGS VOLATILITY UNDERPINNED BY CONSERVATIVE RISK PROFILE AND STABLE RETAIL FRANCHISE - COST BASE REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO ONGOING INVESTMENTS Santander UK's profitability is characterized by several positive elements, including: (1) strong earnings generation capacity, owing to its solid franchise in UK, being the fifth largest financial institution in the country; (2) low earning volatility, on the back of its mainly retail business model; (3) small impact from legacy issues compared to peers; and (4) resilient and stable track record over the last 5 years. However we also note the following weaknesses: (1) limited earnings diversity, with net interest income still accounting for a large part of total revenues; and 2) moderately low efficiency, with cost-to-income ratio slightly higher compared to rated peers. Improving internal capital generation and earning stability are key rating drivers, which translate into an assigned score of baa2 for the Profitability factor. The Group reported a statutory profit before tax of 1.3 billion in 2015 compared to 1.4 billion the year before. Despite stronger net interest income (+4.1% year-on-year - y-o-y), profitability was negatively affected by 450
4 million (2014: 95 million) in additional payment protection insurance (PPI) provisions. The charge was taken in response to the Financial Conduct Authority's consultation paper on PPI, which proposed to introduce a deadline for customers to claim compensation. Given that Santander UK has historically been less affected by PPI charges than other large UK banks, we view this as an up-fronting of estimated costs and do not expect a significant increase in conduct remediation provisions in Excluding PPI charges, adjusted pre-tax profit for the year was 1.8 billion, a 20% increase from 1.5 billion in Operating expenses remained flat at 2.4 billion, while reported cost-to-income ratio improved slightly to 53% from 54% in Total provisions for other liabilities, excluding PPI charges, decreased by 3% y-o-y in 2015 accompanied by a 74% decline in loan impairment provisions to 66 million from 258 million in SOLID CAPITAL LEVELS SUPPORTED BY IMPROVING LEVERAGE METRICS We have assessed Santander UK's Capital score at aa3, in line with the macro-adjusted score. With the Tangible Common Equity over Risk Weighted Assets ratio of 14.8% at end- 2015, Santander UK's robust capitalisation relative to low risk profile is the bank's key rating strength. We expect that the bank will continue to maintain its capital levels thanks to its demonstrated internal earnings generation capacity. Santander UK reported a fully loaded Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.6% at end-2015, slightly down from 11.9% reported at end The decrease was primarily driven by higher risk weighted assets, impacted by the acquisition of a 2.5 billion vehicle finance loan book upon the commencement of cooperation with Banque PSA, and PPI charge. Santander UK also continues to strengthen its leverage position. The bank's nominal leverage ratio, calculated as TCE over Tangible Assets improved to 4.9% at end-2015 (end-2014: 4.5%) owing to the issuance of 750 million Additional Tier 1 note in June and internal capital generation in GOOD ASSET QUALITY, BUT EXPOSURE TO RISKIER SME SECTOR IS INCREASING FROM A LOW BASE The bank presents a sound overall asset quality since the main components of its lending portfolio are prime residential mortgages. The bank also maintains conservative underwriting standards on mortgage lending with a low weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio at 41% as of end The weighted average LTV on new mortgages was 60% in Overall, asset quality is a strength for Santander UK, as indicated by our a1 assigned score for Asset Risk. We have made a two-notch negative adjustment to this factor to take into account the increasing exposure to SMEs and corporate lending, which, in our view, will somewhat increase the bank's risk profile. We further note the growth in these books has been accelerating. During 2015, 2.5 billion of credit facilities were extended to SME and mid-sized corporates, an 10% increase y-o-y, compared to 8% y-o-y growth at end We, however, positively note the bank is gaining market share from a low starting point with the objective of achieving growth while maintaining conservative underwriting standards. Santander UK had a 0.8% problem loan ratio, as calculated by Moody's as impaired loans over gross loans, at end (end-2014: 1.0%). The bank's reported non-performing loans (typically more than 3 months in arrears) ratio improved to 1.54% from 1.80% at end The bank also exhibits strong problem loan coverage with Moody's calculated Loan Loss Reserves over Problem Loans ratio of 77% (reported nonperforming loan coverage ratio of 38%) in the same period. We expect asset risk metrics to remain broadly stable over the outlook period. IMPROVING FUNDING PROFILE AND SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY BUFFER, ALTHOUGH WHOLESALE FUNDING RELIANCE PERSISTS Santander UK continues to rely on wholesale funding: our Market Funds over Tangible Banking Assets ratio stood at 25.2% as of end-2015 (end-2014: 27.5%), resulting in a baa2 assigned score for Funding Structure. The wholesale funding is however well diversified and primarily composed of secured, long-term funding. Over the past year Santander UK mainly issued unsecured senior debt notes, which accounted for 7.1 billion out of the total 12.1 billion term funding issued in Being primarily a retail bank, customer deposits are Santander UK's main source of funding, accounting for about 71% of total funding at end The bank's reported loan-to-deposit ratio declined to 121% as of end (124% as of end-2014). The composition and stability of the bank's deposit base continues to evolve
5 positively as the bank continues to replace price-sensitive deposit customers with current account clients, which are more stable, usually having more than one product with the bank. Our baa1 assigned score for Liquidity Resources is a reflection of sizeable stock and high quality of Santander UK's liquid assets, which mitigates the bank's reliance on wholesale funding. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)- eligible liquid assets stood at 38.7 billion as of end-2015, covering 183% of wholesale funds with a residual maturity of less than one year and resulting in a LCR of 120%. We expect on-balance-sheet liquidity to slightly decrease over the outlook period, given the high cost of holding liquid assets in the midst of low interest rate environment. Santander UK's resulting financial profile score is a3. The assigned BCA of a3 is positioned in the middle of a scorecard-calculated BCA range of a2-baa1. NOTCHING CONSIDERATIONS LOSS GIVEN FAILURE AND ADDITIONAL NOTCHING Santander UK is subject to the UK implementation of the EU Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits, and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. These are in line with our standard assumptions. Particular to Santander UK, we assume the proportion of deposits considered junior at 10%, relative to our standard assumption of 26%, due to their largely retail-oriented depositor base. Our Advanced LGF analysis indicates that Santander UK's deposits are likely to face very low loss-givenfailure, due to the loss absorption provided by subordinated debt and, potentially, by senior unsecured debt should deposits be treated preferentially in a resolution, as well as the substantial volume of deposits themselves. This results in a Preliminary Rating Assessment (PRA) of a1, two notches above the BCA. Santander UK's senior unsecured debt, issued at bank's level, is likely to face a low loss-given-failure due to the loss absorption provided by its own volume and the amount of debt subordinated to it. This results in a PRA of a2, one notch above the BCA. The senior unsecured debt, issued at HoldCo level, is likely to face a high loss-given-failure due to the small amount of debt subordinated to it. This results in a PRA of baa1, one notch below the BCA. Subordinated debt is also likely to face a high loss-given-failure due to its own very modest volume and the small amount of debt subordinated to it, resulting in the same PRA of baa1. Junior subordinated debt and preference shares are likely to face a high loss-given-failure, and they include additional downward notching from the BCA, reflecting the coupon suspension risk ahead of a potential failure and leading to a rating of (P)Baa2 for the junior subordinated MTN programme, Baa2 (hyb) for cumulative Preference shares and Baa3 (hyb) for non-cumulative Preference Shares. GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The implementation of the BRRD has caused us to reconsider the potential for government support to benefit certain creditors. We now expect a moderate probability of government support for Santander UK's deposits, resulting in a one-notch uplift to the PRA, and a long-term deposit rating of Aa3. We assign the same support probability to senior unsecured debt, issued at bank's level, resulting in a senior unsecured rating of A1. We consider the probability of government support for holding company liabilities to be low, leading to the HoldCo long-term issuer rating of Baa1. For junior securities, we continue to believe that the potential for government support is low and these ratings do not, therefore, include any related uplift. COUNTERPARTY RISK ASSESSMENT The CR Assessment is positioned at Aa2(cr)/Prime-1(cr). The CR Assessment, prior to government support, is positioned three notches above Santander UK's BCA of baa1, based on the cushion against default provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments. The main difference with our Advanced LGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default on certain senior obligations, rather than expected loss, therefore we focus purely on
6 subordination and take no account of the volume of the instrument class. The CR Assessment also benefits from one notch of government support, in line with our support assumptions on deposits and senior unsecured debt. This reflects our view that any support provided by governmental authorities to a bank which benefits senior unsecured debt or deposits is very likely to benefit operating activities and obligations reflected by the CR Assessment as well, consistent with our belief that governments are likely to maintain such operations as a going-concern in order to reduce contagion and preserve a bank's critical functions. About Moody's Scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. Rating Factors Santander UK PLC Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Very Strong - Financial Profile Factor Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans Historic Ratio Macro Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 0.9% aa2 a1 Expected trend Sector concentration Capital TCE / RWA 14.8% aa3 aa3 Expected trend Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets Combined Liquidity Score 0.5% baa3 baa2 Earnings quality a1 a2 25.2% baa2 baa2 Extent of market funding reliance 19.5% baa2 baa2 Quality of liquid assets baa2 baa2 Financial Profile a3 Expected trend Expected trend Expected trend Qualitative Adjustments Adjustment
7 Business Diversification 0 Opacity and 0 Complexity Corporate Behavior 0 Total Qualitative Adjustments 0 Sovereign or Affiliate constraint Scorecard Calculated BCA range Aa1 a2 - baa1 Assigned BCA a3 Affiliate Support notching 0 Adjusted BCA a3 Instrument Class Loss Given Failure notching Additional notching Preliminary Rating Assessment Government Support notching Local Currency rating Foreign Currency rating Deposits 2 0 a1 1 Aa3 Aa3 Senior unsecured bank debt 1 0 a2 1 (P)A1 Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 baa1 0 Baa1 Baa1 Junior subordinated bank debt -1-1 baa2 0 Baa2(hyb) Baa2(hyb) Cumulative bank preference shares -1-1 baa2 0 Baa2(hyb) Non-cumulative bank preference shares -1-2 baa3 0 Baa3(hyb) This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history Moody s Corporation, Moody s Investors Service, Inc., Moody s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES ( MIS ) ARE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY S ( MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ) MAY INCLUDE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE
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Credit Opinion: Ulster Bank Ireland Limited Global Credit Research - 10 Nov 2014 Dublin, Ireland Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Negative(m) Bank Deposits Baa3/P-3 Bank Financial Strength E+ Baseline
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Credit Opinion: Sparebanken Hedmark Global Credit Research - 31 Mar 2015 Hamar, Norway Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Moody's Rating
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CREDIT OPINION 9 November 16 ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Semiannual update Update Summary Rating Rationale ABN AMRO's baseline credit assessment of reflects the bank's overall good financial fundamentals including
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CREDIT OPINION 18 October 17 ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Update to credit analysis Update Summary ABN AMRO's baseline credit assessment of reflects the bank's overall good financial fundamentals including sound
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CREDIT OPINION Nurol Investment Bank Update following rating assignment New Issue Summary Nurol Investment Bank's (Nurolbank s) B3 global long-term issuer ratings reflect the bank's baseline credit assessment
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CREDIT OPINION 5 October 17 OP Corporate Bank plc Semiannual update Update Summary RATINGS OP Corporate Bank plc Domicile Finland Long Term Debt Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term
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CREDIT OPINION 1 December 17 ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Update to credit analysis Update Summary ABN AMRO Bank N.V.'s (ABN AMRO) baseline credit assessment (BCA) of reflects the bank's overall good financial fundamentals
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Rating Action: Moody's confirms Banco Popolare's Ba3 deposit and senior debt rating; outlook stable Global Credit Research - 27 May 2015 Standalone BCA upgraded to b2 from b3 London, 27 May 2015 -- Moody's
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Rating Action: Moody's affirms Volvofinans Bank's A3 rating; stable outlook 26 Feb 2019 Stockholm, February 26, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today affirmed Volvofinans Bank AB's long-
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CREDIT OPINION 7 September 16 Update Banco Sabadell, S.A. Semiannual Update Summary Rating Rationale Banco Sabadell's Baa/Prime- deposit ratings and its Ba1/Not Prime senior debt ratings, with a stable
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CREDIT OPINION The Royal Bank of Scotland plc Post rating action update New Issue Summary The senior unsecured debt ratings of the Royal Bank of Scotland plc (RBS plc), the Dutch entity Royal Bank of Scotland
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Credit Opinion: Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Global Credit Research - 20 Nov 2015 Lausanne, Switzerland Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bank Deposits Aa2/P-1 Baseline Credit Assessment a2 Adjusted
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CREDIT OPINION 7 July 216 Lloyds Bank Plc Post Rating Action Update Update Summary Rating Rationale On 28th June, we affirmed all ratings of Lloyds Bank plc (Lloyds) and its holding company Lloyds Banking
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Credit Opinion: CorpBanca Global Credit Research - 15 Jun 2015 Santiago, Chile Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured Moody's
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Credit Opinion: Al Hilal Bank PJSC Global Credit Research - 22 Sep 2015 United Arab Emirates Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Baseline Credit Assessment ba2 Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment
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Credit Opinion: Denizbank A.S. Global Credit Research - 04 Dec 2014 Istanbul, Turkey Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bank Deposits Ba1/NP Bank Financial Strength D- Baseline Credit Assessment
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Rating Action: Moody's upgrade Equinor's rating to Aa2 and BCA to a1; stable outlook 09 Aug 2018 London, 09 August 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today upgraded the senior unsecured
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