Banco GNB Sudameris S.A.

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1 CREDIT OPINION 2 March 218 Banco GNB Sudameris S.A. Update to credit analysis - Good asset quality offsets low capital Update Summary RATINGS Banco GNB Sudameris S.A. Domicile Colombia Long Term Debt Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term Deposit Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Alcir Freitas VP-Sr Credit Officer alcir.freitas@moodys.com We assign a baseline credit assessment (BCA) to Banco GNB Sudameris S.A.'s (GNB), which reflects its historically low non-performing loan ratios, as a result of the bank's sizeable exposure to lower risk secured payroll loans, as well as the good performance of its commercial loans, despite its focus on higher risk SMEs. At the same time, the bank's financial profile is challenged by its low capitalization, which however, we expect to remain stable at current levels given the continued slow growth coupled with the bank's historic practice of reinvesting almost all of its earnings. The bank's predominant reliance on wholesale funding is counterbalanced by the ample liquidity, mainly allocated to Colombian sovereign bonds. GNB's long-term deposit and senior debt ratings of represent 1 notch uplift from the bank's BCA, reflecting our assessment of moderate likelihood of support from Colombia's Sovereign (Baa2, negative) in an event of financial need. Our assumption takes in consideration that despite the small market share of GNB in terms deposits, the bank has a considerable participation in the social visible payroll lending market. The bank currently accounts for just over 3.5% of total deposits in the system, which places it in eleventh place among Colombia's banks, however it is the fourth largest payroll lender in the financial system. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios Scorecard data as of September 217 Felipe Carvallo VP-Senior Analyst felipe.carvallo@moodys.com Solvency Factors Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director aaron.freedman@moodys.com Median -rated banks 35% 12% 3% 1% 25% 8% 2% 6% 15% 4% 1% 5% 2% 1.6% 7.4% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets % Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics.7% Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets 27.4% 32.3% Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets % Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Vicente Gomez Associate Analyst vicente.gomez@moodys.com GNB (BCA: ) 14%

2 Credit strengths» Good asset quality» Ample liquidity Credit challenges» Low capital levels» Wholesale deposit funding profile» Potential earnings volatility given the low revenue diversification Rating outlook The stable outlook takes into consideration our expectation that capitalization will remain low but stable given the slow growth of assets and steady profitability, and asset risks will remain stable in line with Colombia's economic growth. Factors that could lead to an upgrade Upward rating pressures could arise from a substantial improvement in capitalization, a significant and sustainable increase in core earnings, and/or an improvement in the bank's funding structure. Factors that could lead to a downgrade GNB's ratings could be downgraded further if the bank's reliance on wholesale funding increases and/or its liquidity position deteriorates. Also, the ratings could face a downward pressure if it engages in further large scale acquisitions, experiences a significant reduction in capitalization, and/or asset risks increase. GNB's ratings could also be downgraded if current level of government support assessment is lowered. Key indicators Exhibit 2 Banco GNB Sudameris S.A. (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (COP billion) Total Assets (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (COP billion) Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) ,864 9,828 1, ,229 8,737 1, ,98 8,221 1, ,366 9, CAGR/Avg.4 17,456 9, [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel II; IFRS [3] Basel I; LOCAL GAAP [4] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [6] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel II periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 2 March 218

3 Profile GNB is a Colombian bank with 7 subsidiaries, in which two of them have operations in Perú and Paraguay. In Colombia the bank has 12 branches with 1,799 employees. Through one of the largest ATM network in the country (Servibanca) it covers around 9% of Colombian territory. Abroad the bank has 12 branches in Perú and 59 employees and 6 branches in Paraguay with 94 employees. The bank especializes in SME and retail lending. Though the bank has a small market share in terms of deposits and lending, the bank has a significant market share in payroll linked lending (around 8.4% as of November 217) making the 4th largest participant in that particular segment (out of 2), and only behind some of the largest banks in the country. Detailed credit considerations Good asset quality track record could be pressured by potential fluctuations in SME exposure and operations abroad Sound asset quality is reflected by the bank's historically low problem loans ratio, which has remained stable around the current level of 1.6% of gross loans (September 217). The low delinquency rate reflects the bank's sizeable exposure to lower risk secured payroll loans, which represent around 31% of its total portfolio, as well as the good performance of its commercial loans, despite its focus on higher risk SMEs. Asset risk is also supported by ample loan loss reserves, which covered 155% of problem loans in September 217. While the bank has a good track record in managing exposures to SMEs, which account almost for its entire commercial loan book, we note that these companies are more subject to the risks of the weaker economic environment. GNB also carries exposures to large corporations, that Moody's estimates to be around 1% of total loans, which could add volatility to its asset risk given the associated borrower concentration. GNB is also exposed to the potentially greater credit and market risks from its operations in Perú and Paraguay, which jointly represent a substantial 42.5% of total loans as of September 217, given its relatively short track record in these jurisdictions and small market share, particularly in Peru, where it faces fierce competition from much larger and entrenched banks. In Peru and Paraguay, GNB is the ninth and seventh largest bank respectively and the first Colombian bank to enter these countries with a full banking license. We also note that the bank could incur in higher risks by undertaking further acquisitions that increase its leverage and lead to a deterioration of its operating efficiency, as well as risks related to periodic spikes in related party lending. Low growth eases pressures on its low capitalization Capitalization levels remain the key challenge for GNB, whose adjusted tangible common equity to risk weighted assets of 7.4% as of September 217 is below even Colombia's already weak median. However, we expect capital levels to remain stable, given continued slow growth coupled with the bank's historic practice of reinvesting almost all of its earnings. The increase in TCE / RWA in the last 12 months reflects the accumulated internal earnings generation coupled with the growth slowdown. Also, the bank s capital replenishment is historically supported by low dividend payments The bank has only paid one dividend of 15% of net income in the last 5 years (216), and reported that no dividend has been yet decreed for 217. Low revenue diversification exposes profitability to potential risks GNB profitability stands well below domestic peers with a net income reaching.7% of tangible assets in the nine months through September 217 and in line with the CAGR average of the last years (see key indicators chart). The bank has delivered steady earnings despite the different monetary cycles of the last couple of years (first tightening and then easing) that brought somewhat more volatility to earnings to other peers. This stability demonstrates the bank's ability to hedge against interest rate and foreign currency changes. However the lower levels in profits are a prove of the bank's heavy reliance on costly and price sensitive wholesale funding and a loan book that is not that easy to reprice. At the same time, the bank's cost-to-income ratio has gradually improved in recent years, dropping to 52.9% in the first nine months of 217, roughly equal to the level seen prior to its acquisition of HSBC's Colombian, Peruvian, and Paraguayan operations in 212, which led to a sharp rise in operating costs. However, the bank's limited fee income and lending concentration in two relatively narrow market segments could subject it to greater earnings volatility in the future. For the first nine of 217 the bank's net income increased 6%, the increase is explain by the bank successful non-interest income activities such as fees from Servibanca (ATM), market making activities and hedging (among others) that increased 13% and lower 3 2 March 218

4 very controlled operational costs (-3%). This two effects helped the bank to offset a decrease of around 38% in its net interest income and the higher credit costs (up 22%). Reliance on wholesale funding is partially counterbalanced by large volume of liquid assets The bank reliance on wholesale funds exposes it to high concentration of depositors, with the top 2 investors representing a significant 45% of the bank's total deposits. However, risks associated with the bank's funding structure are partially offset by GNB's ample liquidity, with liquid assets mainly allocated to the highly liquid Colombian government securities, representing 32% of tangible banking assets. GNB's rating is supported by a weighted Macro Profile of Moderate + GNB's Macro Profile is Moderate +, weighted by the bank's loan exposures. Colombia, which represents the bulk of GNB's loan book (57.5%), has a Moderate+ Macro Profile, followed by Peru (26%) also with a Moderate+ Macro Profile and Paraguay with a Weak+ Macro Profile. Colombia's macro profile reflects the country's predictable macroeconomic policies and growth that remains higher than that of most rating peers despite a slowdown in recent years. Colombia has shown resilience to economic and political shocks, including a large terms-of-trade shock that resulted from the drop in global oil prices to which it is still adjusting. Growth remains weak, consumer and business confidence hover around record lows, and there is uncertainty regarding the fiscal cost of implementing the country's newly approved peace deal. However, the government has implemented medium-term tax reforms to meet fiscal targets while inflation and interest rates are falling. The expected gradual recovery through 218 will be primarily linked to improved domestic demand and ongoing developments in 4G infrastructure investments. While GNB's Peruvian exposure provides the bank with access to an environment of strong economic growth and solid institutions and the Paraguayan operation exposes the bank to a country with vulnerability to climate-related shocks, we do not yet incorporate the benefits from the bank's foreign exposures given the limited track record of the bank as a functioning multi-jurisdictional entity. Support and structural considerations Government support GNB's long-term deposit and senior debt ratings of benefit from a one notch uplift from its BCA, which incorporates a moderate likelihood of government support given its relatively modest market share of deposits. Counterparty risk assessment Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR assessments) are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss suffered in the event of default and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. GNB's CR Assessment is positioned at Ba1(cr) / Not Prime(cr) The CR assessment is two notches above the bank's adjusted BCA of, and therefore, above the deposit rating of the bank, reflecting Moody's view that its probability of default is lower at the operating obligations and also reflecting one notch of benefit from government support. Foreign currency subordinated debt rating Moody's assigns a B1 subordinated debt rating to GNB's USD25 million ten-year Tier 2 capital-eligible subordinated notes due 3 July 222 (coupon of 7.5%)1. Moody's also assigns a senior debt rating to GNB's USD3 million five- year senior unsecured notes due 2 May 218 (coupon of 3.875%)2 About Moody's bank scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee s judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard 4 2 March 218

5 may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. 5 2 March 218

6 Rating methodology and scorecard factors Exhibit 3 Banco GNB Sudameris S.A. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Moderate + Factor 1% Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 Sector concentration Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans 1.6% a3 baa3 Unseasoned risk Capital TCE / RWA 7.4% b2 b2 Risk-weighted capitalisation Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets.7% ba2 Earnings quality Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets ba1 27.4% ba2 b1 Deposit quality Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 32.3% baa1 baa1 Stock of liquid assets Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Instrument class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Dated subordinated bank debt baa3 Loss Given Failure notching 1-1 ba1 ba Baa2 ba2-b1 Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment Expected trend ba2 (cr) b1 Government Support notching Local Currency Rating Ba1 (cr) --- Foreign Currency Rating - B1 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 4 Category BANCO GNB SUDAMERIS S.A. Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Senior Unsecured 6 2 March 218 Moody's Rating Stable /NP Ba1(cr)/NP(cr)

7 Subordinate B1 Source: Moody's Investors Service Endnotes 1 See Moody's Press Release titled Moody's rates GNB's proposed subordinated debt issuance, published 19 July See Moody's Press Release titled Moody's rates GNB's proposed senior debt issuance, published 18 April March 218

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9 CLIENT SERVICES 9 Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA March 218