For investment professionals only - Not for use by retail investors Emerging world order Emerging Market Debt by the Numbers April 2013 The economic face of the world is changing and Aberdeen believes that Emerging Markets (EM) have become a major engine of global growth and opportunity. The Changing Landscape: Emerging Markets And Global Growth Over the last twenty years, emerging markets have demonstrated substantial growth in gross domestic product. Looking to the future, this growth is forecast to continue as emerging markets carry on as the engine of global growth. Take a look at the Gross Domestic Product (GDP - current prices, US dollars) of these top emerging market countries, and the percentage of the world GDP that each will consume: China Brazil Russia 1993: 613.223 billion 4.815% 1993: 438.298 billion 3.079% 1993: 183.816 billion 3.748% 2012: 8.227 trillion 14.921% 2012: 2.396 trillion 2.833% 2012: 2.022 trillion 3.023% 2018 (estimated): 14.941 trillion 18.971% 2018 (estimated): 3.389 trillion 2.803% 2018 (estimated): 3.182 trillion 2.934% India Mexico Indonesia 1993: 283.231 billion 3.100% 1993: 490.643 billion 2.521% 1993: 158.007 billion 1.267% 2012: 1.825 trillion 5.634% 2012: 1.177 trillion 2.116% 2012: 878.198 billion 1.463% 2018 (estimated): 2.976 trillion 6.467% 2018 (estimated): 1.656 trillion 2.021% 2018 (estimated): 1.482 trillion 1.670% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013 aberdeen-asset.co.uk
And this trend of global growth is projected to continue as EMs are set to hold the largest share of global GDP by 2050: Which means that by 2050, 8 out of 10 of the world s largest economies will be in emerging markets Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis, March 2011 2010 40%: Emerging Markets 23%: Europe 22%: North America 9%: Other 6%: Japan 2050 69%: Emerging Markets 11%: North America 9%: Europe 9%: Other 2%: Japan 2050 2010 Source: Citi, March 2011 Encouraging demographics for growth Larger Working Population Dominant markets are trending towards having fewer children and an older population, while emerging markets boast growing, youthful, working populations Percent Under 15 Yrs Percent over 65 Yrs Global Population & Unemployment Unemployment Rate 13.20% 25.80% 17.10% 9.60% 27.00% 7.10% 25.40% 7.30% 21.30% 10.50% 20.00% 14.20% 17.30% 17.50% 25.30% 6.70% 15.76% 17.48% Japan China Mexico Brazil Chile United States United Kingdom Colombia Eurozone 2 4.10% 4.10% 4.51% 5.70% 6.20% 7.50% 7.90% 11.64% 12.10% Source: Bloomberg, December 2012
Strong sovereign balance sheets Better Outlook Many are more comfortable investing in what they believe to be safe-haven bond markets, but emerging markets actually have stronger balance sheets. Comparison: U.S. vs. Mexico United States Mexico Public Debt (% GDP) Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) GDP Growth 10 Year Yield Public Debt (% GDP) 111.7% 43.2% 2.1% 2.0% 3.5% 4.9% -7.3% -2.1% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, March 2013; Bloomberg, March 2013. Expanding Opportunities The EMD market is bigger than you may think, currently at $7.7 trillion, and we believe there is more room for growth. Emerging markets have improving credit ratings: Brazil, 2012: S&P upgrades long-term foreign currency rating to BBB, and their local rating to A-, citing an expanding middle class, diverse economic structure, and potential for more exports Indonesia, 2012: Moody s awards investment-grade rating Turkey, 2013: S&P upgrades credit rating to BB+ Standard & Poor s credit ratings express the agency s opinion about the ability and willingness of an issuer, such as a corporation or state or city government, to meet its financial obligations in full and on time. Typically, ratings are expressed as letter grades that range, for example, from AAA to D to communicate the agency s opinion of relative level of credit risk. Ratings from AA to CCC may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories. Moody s - An independent, unaffiliated research company that rates fixed income securities. Moody s assigns ratings on the basis of risk and the borrower s ability to make interest payments. Typically securities are assigned a rating from Aaa to C, with Aaa being the highest quality and C being the lowest quality. Source: The Herald, December 2012; Bloomberg, January 2012.
Increasing Middle Class While most developed markets experienced middle class expansion at some point after the Industrial Revolution (and over a longer period), many EMs have expanded at at much faster pace. China, for example, has seen an increase in income per person of 24x since 1950, whereas the U.S. has seen an increase of just 2.7x over the same period.* $50000 $45000 $40000 $35000 China India Japan United Kingdom United States GDP Based on PPP $30000 $25000 $20000 Population: 0-100 million 100-250 million 250-500 million $15000 500 + million $10000 $5000 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 *Source: Gapminder, April 2013
EMD yields stand out 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 EM Local Currency (BBB+) US 10yr (AA+) EM Corporates (BBB) EM Hard Currency (BBB-) Source: EM Local currency index: JPM GBI-EM GD, EM Hard currency index: JPM EMBI GD, EM Corporate index: JPM CEMBI BD, US IG Corporates index: JPM JULI index, JP Morgan, S&P, Bloomberg, Jan 13 Aberdeen Asset Management s resources Aberdeen has a strong global presence in the EMD space: Over $322 billion in total assets, one third of which are invested in emerging markets, with over $11 billion investing in EMD. Over 70 Emerging Market investment professionals worldwide. Our investment managers are based in the regions in which they invest., operating out of our 31 offices in 21 countries.
Contact us The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested. Contact Aberdeen Asset Management for more information on how to take advantage of the potential opportunities that emerging markets represent. For further information please contact your usual Aberdeen representative. Alternatively, visit aberdeen-asset.co.uk. IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS Some of the information in this document may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. Forecasts and projections are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance. Forecasts and projections are not guaranteed and actual events or results may differ materially. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information contained in this document, and make such independent investigations, as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment. 1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - An economic theory that estimates the amount of adjustment needed on the exchange rate between countries in order for the exchange to be equivalent to each currency s purchasing power. 2. The Eurozone is an economic area of 17 European Union member states that have adopted the Euro as their common currency. The JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is a comprehensive global local emerging markets index that consists of regularly traded, liquid fixed-rate, domestic currency government bonds. The JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Index is a uniquely-weighted version of the JPMorgan EMBI Global Index. It limits the weights of those index countries with larger debt stocks by only including specified portions of these countries eligible current face amounts of debt outstanding. The countries covered in the EMBI Global Diversified Index are identical to those covered by the EMBI Global Index. JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) is a market capitalization weighted index consisting of US.-denominated emerging markets corporate bonds. It is a liquid global corporate benchmark representing Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East/Africa. Indexes are unmanaged and are provided for comparison purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. The above is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as an offer, or solicitation, to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein. Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials contained in this document and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested. Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited Bow Bells House, 1 Bread Street, London EC4M 9HH Telephone: +44 (0)20 7463 6000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7463 6001 aberdeen-asset.com 121002987