Perceptions of Debt and Deficits and the Evolution of Canada s Federal Debt, 1867 to 2017 Livio Di Matteo Lakehead University Debt in History Conference Department of English University of Toronto Scarborough, Canada 18-19 May 2018
Introduction Canada was born in debt as the fiscal solutions of Confederation involved the existing debts of the provinces assumed by the federal government. Debt is ultimately a tool and public and political perceptions of government debt and its use as a tool have varied over time.
Perceptions of Debt Evolved The economic shocks of the twentieth century namely, war and depression generated large funding requirements and debt acquisition and ultimately led to a relaxation of prudence and greater public acceptance of large debt levels with debt seen as an important tool to meet policy needs.
Fiscal Philosophy
Personal Finance Until the 20 th century, the public ethos towards personal finance was rooted in a bequest motive that stressed the shame of squandering the family estate and debt personal or public was viewed as failure and stain on the family. Indeed, falling into debt was associated with immorality and was a theme reflected in Victorian literature. After the debt and credit experience of both world wars, the rise of consumer debt and finance in the 1950s and 1960s further expanded the comfort zone of Canadians when it came to government debt.
Liberal Economics & Classical School Hume believed commercial societies were the most conducive to the creation of wealth and in conjunction with Adam Smith viewed government as a means to promote economic development by providing a framework of justice in which self-seeking individuals with their property and specialization were protected by law and authority. Adam Smith s views on government are detailed in the fifth book of the Wealth of Nations with the general functions of government being protection, justice and certain public works and institutions.
Classical School and Debt Hume feared that public debt was the road to national bankruptcy. Less pessimistic Smith saw some positive aspects to debt as a tool but nevertheless acknowledged that public debt could grow too large and ruin the nation leading to his suggestion of financial instruments such as sinking funds to manage public debt. Yet, even Adam Smith wrote that the The practice of funding [i.e. deficit spending] has gradually enfeebled every state which has adopted it and that bankruptcy was always the end of great accumulations of debt.
Confederation and Debt By the onset of Confederation, the provinces were all quite heavily in debt as a result of the financing of railway construction in the 1850s. Canada was born in debt and debt service costs were a major federal expenditure starting immediately. Indeed, in Canada s first budgetary year, debt service costs were nearly 30 percent of total federal expenditure a share as high as that during the federal fiscal crisis of the 1990s.
Revenue Philosophy of New Dominion Government Public debt as a nation building tool. Trading additional debt financing against additional taxation in order to finance its nation-building program in particular, the development of a national railway and western settlement. Maintaining low rates of taxation was seen as crucial in order to attract immigrants, promote economic growth while competing with the adjacent United States economy.
Evolution of Government and Public Views Towards Debt The economic shocks of the twentieth century namely, war and depression generated large funding requirements and debt acquisition and ultimately led to a relaxation of prudence and greater public acceptance of large debt levels with debt seen as an important tool to meet policy needs. World War I sparked the creation of the first large scale debt finance program that was greatly expanded during World War II. Indeed, the issues of Victory bonds proved quite popular with Canadians with $2 billion raised during World War I and $9 billion raised during World War II.
World War II & Depression Were Particularly Transformative The Keynesian Revolution provided a new justification for deficit financing as a tool for aggregate demand management to ensure that the ravages of the Great Depression need not ever be repeated. The ideas of the classical economists regarding the market order as a naturally equilibrating mechanism were replaced by economies as volatile and driven by investor expectations and therefore requiring the stabilizing hand of government expenditure.
Government as Economic Managers Keynesian Demand Management: public attitudes and those of their governments came to see governments as competent and well-intentioned managers of economic and social matters and consequently, deficits and debts were seen as simply a much-needed tool. Public Finance Theory: Modernist School & Italian/Public Choice Schools
Italian School Public sector and private sectors not water tight compartments but intertwined with activities and institutions of the state very much a part of the production process of private firms providing them with institutions, infrastructure, goods and services. Public debt was also not viewed as positive if it provided the infrastructure for the private sector to engage in production with the infrastructure providing a patrimony that served future generation.
Reaction Against Debts and Deficits The 1970s and 1980s saw a reaction against Keynesian theory as well as the role automatic acceptance of government intervention in the economy as benevolent. Result was an era of deregulation, market revivalism, austerity and a reduction in public sector size in many developed countries. The Leviathan Hypothesis advanced by the work of Brennan and Buchanan argued that government was a revenue maximizing Leviathan operating subject to constitutional tax constraints. Decentralization seen as a tool for restraining government.
Post 1990s The move towards government decentralization was also often accompanied by a movement away from the welfare state, market decentralization and all this was given further impetus with the fall of the Berlin Wall. There was a rethinking of the role of government with respect to the take-up of collective goods and services. Features of this new approach included government as being customer oriented rather than serving the public good, the contracting out of services to the private sector and public-private partnerships, managerial reforms that stressed accountability to tax payers and cost recovery. In the Canadian case, this ultimately coincided with the federal debt crisis of the 1990s and resulted in an era of balanced budgets and decline in both the nominal debt as well as the debt to GDP ratio.
2008-09 Global Financial Crisis Return of Activist government Revival of Keynesian Theory Rebound in public sector growth in many countries Large amounts of public and private debt. Low interest rates an inducement towards more debt
The Data Numbers for federal debt in this paper are from two sources: the Canada Yearbook for the period 1867 to 1965 and then the Federal Fiscal Reference Tables for the period 1966 to the near present
10000 Real Per Capita Federal Government Revenues and Expenditures, 1870-2017 ($2014) 9000 8000 7000 6000 $2014 5000 4000 Expenditures Revenues 3000 2000 1000 0 1867 1871 1875 1879 1883 1887 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
1500 Federal Government Real Per Capita Deficit(-)/Surplus(+), 1870-2017 ($2014) 1000 500 0-500 1867 1870 1873 1876 1879 1882 1885 1888 1891 1894 1897 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2014 dollars -1000-1500 -2000-2500 -3000-3500 -4000
800.000 Federal Government Net Debt, 1867-2017 ($billions) 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 Net Debt ($billions) 300.000 200.000 100.000 0.000 1867 1871 1875 1879 1883 1887 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
35000 Federal Government Per Capita Net Debt, 1867-2017 30000 25000 Dollars 20000 15000 Nominal Real ($2014) 10000 5000 0 1867 1871 1875 1879 1883 1887 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
120 Federal Government Net Debt to Net Debt to GDP (%), 1870-2017 100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 1867 1870 1873 1876 1879 1882 1885 1888 1891 1894 1897 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
QUESTIONS