Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile 4-6 October 2017
Graham Robinson Global Construction Perspectives Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of global studies of the construction and engineering industry published by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics graham@constructglobal.com
Medium Term Trends in GDP Global Regions 8,0 5,9 Average annual % change 4,0 4,2 4,1 3,7 1,1 1,9 1,4 1,2 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Developed Regions Emerging Regions
12,0 Regional GDP Growth Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 0,0 2,1 1,7 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,1 0,7 Western Europe North America Asia Pacific (Developed) 3,3 3,4 2,0 2,0 1,9 2,5 2,1 1,5 Eastern Europe Latin America 8,7 6,3 5,2 4,6 Asia Pacific (Emerging) 4,3 3,4 3,0 3,0 Middle East North Africa 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 5,1 1,7 3,7 3,5 Sub- Saharan Africa
Asia Pacific (Developed) 11% GDP by Region in 2017 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn Eastern Europe 7% Latin America 7% North America 24% Asia Pacific (Emerging) 22% Western Europe 23% Middle East and North Africa 4% Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Asia Pacific (Developed) 11% GDP by Region in 2030 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn Eastern Europe 6% Latin America 7% North America 24% Asia Pacific (Emerging) 31% Western Europe 23% Middle East and North Africa 4% Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Global Construction Outlook 2030 Key Growth Drivers
8 GDP and Population Growth 10 countries Average annual % change 6,5 5,3 4 0-4 0,2 China 1,7 0,8 1,0 US India 1,0 0,0 Germany GDP 1,9 UK 0,6 2,5 1,6 0,9-0,2 Russia Australia Population 1,4 0,6 Brazil 2,6 1,5 Saudi Arabia 3,4 2,5 Nigeria
Population Structure 10 countries % of working population
Urbanization Trends 10 countries
Rise of Middle Income Households households with incomes above US$35,000 (millions)
140 120 100 80 Quality of Existing Infrastructure 10 Countries Global Ranking out of 137 countries 74 108 131 60 40 27 39 47 46 30 20 10 12 0 US Germany UK Australia China India Russia Brazil Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index 2017/18 (published 27 September 2017) Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics Analysis Saudi Arabia Nigeria
Budget Deficit: Ability to Fund Infrastructure
2017 Global Market: Country Split US$10.7 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates Russia 3% Indonesia 3% France 3% UK 3% Other 41% Canada 3% Germany 3% India 4% Japan 5% US 12% China 20% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
2030 Global Market: Country Split US$16.6 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates Russia 2% Australia 2% Other 38% France 2% UK 2% Canada 2% Germany 3% Japan 4% India 7% China 26% US 12% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Contribution to Global Growth 2017-2030 US$bn at 2014 prices and exchange rates Korea 1% Mexico 1% Canada 1% Turkey 1% Indonesia 6% Other 34% US 10% China 34% India 12% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Increasing Importance of Emerging Markets
Construction Outlook 2030 Global Super Powers
16,0 12,0 11,9 China: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 14,3 11,7 12,6 Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 6,7 6,0 5,6 4,3 4,0 5,9 6,1 4,8 4,2 4,6 3,4 3,3 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
8,0 4,0 0,0-4,0-8,0-12,0-7,5 US: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change -1,1 3,0-3,2 5,4 4,4 0,5 3,7 3,0 2,4 2,4 2,7 2,8 2,6 2,0 2,6 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
12,0 India: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 5,7 6,9 5,8 6,4 5,2 4,2 4,7 4,5 7,8 8,8 7,4 7,7 6,9 7,1 7,4 6,9 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
12,0 Indonesia: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 8,8 8,0 7,3 6,9 6,5 5,7 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,0 6,4 5,9 5,6 5,8 5,7 4,0 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
Regional Construction Outlook 2030 Regional Growth Latin America
12,0 9,6 Brazil: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 8,0 5,5 5,3 4,0 2,9 3,2 3,2 3,1 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,8 0,0-4,0 0,0-0,7-1,3-1,1-2,2 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
8,0 Mexico: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 4,0 0,0 0,7 4,1 3,4 3,3 3,0 3,2 3,3 3,0 3,2 2,2 2,4 2,4 1,6 1,0 0,2 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 3,2 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
12,0 Colombia: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 8,0 7,8 4,0 2,6 3,4 3,2 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Total
4,0 Argentina: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 3,0 Average annual % change 3,1 2,5 1,0 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Total
8,0 Chile: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change 4,4 4,0 3,0 3,6 3,7 3,2 3,1 2,4 2,2 3,1 3,2 3,1 2,8 3,5 3,5 3,3 0,0 0,2 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
12,0 Peru: Growth Rates for Construction Output 2005-2030 11,3 Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 4,4 4,0 0,0 0,0 2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 Total
6,0 5,0 4,0 Regional Summary 2014-2030 Average annual % change 5,4 3,7 4,3 3,0 2,0 1,5 2,7 1,5 2,1 2,1 1,0 0,0 Western Europe North America Asia Pacific (Developed) Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Pacific (Emerging) Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa