NEW JERSEY VOTERS SEE KEY CHRISTIE TRAITS IN LESS POSITIVE LIGHT

Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2014 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Professor David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134 (cell), 732-932-9384, ext. 285 (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Find releases and additional blog commentary at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. Follow the on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. NEW JERSEY VOTERS SEE KEY CHRISTIE TRAITS IN LESS POSITIVE LIGHT Perceptions of governor s trustworthiness, other positive traits, continue to decline NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. Trust in New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has continued to decline further after hitting an all-time low last March, according to the latest. Just 22 percent of Garden State voters now say trustworthy describes Christie very well. Another 35 percent think it applies only somewhat well. Nearly 40 percent say the character trait no longer applies to the governor. By comparison, 43 percent said trustworthy applied to Christie very well a month before his November 2013 re-election, and 32 percent said somewhat well. Only 20 percent thought it did not apply at all. Immediately following January s Bridgegate revelations, the share of voters holding this position plunged 16 percentage points; it has since declined an additional five points. Not that long ago, voters were very likely to see Christie as trustworthy. This was especially noteworthy given how little people trust most politicians, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers. Bridgegate, of course, changed that view for many. And once trust is lost, it can be hard to recover. Perceptions of Christie as a strong leader, effective, and fair, which all took significant hits immediately after the G.W. Bridge lane-closing story broke, have also continued to decline. Nearly half (47 percent) of voters still say strong leader applies very well to Christie, but this is down 19 points since October 2013 with half the drop coming immediately after Bridgegate. Views of Christie as effective are also down 19 points to 31 percent of voters who now say the word applies very well, but two-thirds of that decline has come in the past several months. The 27 percent who say fair fits very well is a 14-point drop since October 2013, with most of the decline coming immediately following the news about Bridgegate. The controversy surrounding the lane closures in Ft. Lee had an immediate impact on nearly every assessment of Christie, with positive trait assessments continuing to fall since, said Redlawsk. 1

This may be a key to the governor s overall favorability and job performance ratings decline. People care about issues, but they also look for important character traits in assessing their leaders. Results are from a statewide poll of 842 New Jersey residents contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, 2014. This release reports on a subsample of 734 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Negative perceptions of Christie stable since January Besides seeing Christie as less trustworthy and effective, voters have lowered their opinion of the governor regarding other positive character traits since January. Fifty-three percent now say smart fits him very well, a decline of five points. Only 25 percent, a new low, call reformer a very apt label, and just under half still see Christie as independent. Sixty-two percent still consider fighter a very appropriate description, but even this represents a 10-point drop in the past year. Unlike positive traits, voters perceptions of negative traits that might apply to Christie have changed little since an initial increase in the immediate Bridgegate aftermath. Sixty-seven percent of respondents now say stubborn fits very well, the highest total to date and a 13-point increase during the past 12 months. The change has been only three points since January, however. More than half (54 percent) of voters now think arrogant applies very well to Christie, just three points higher than in January, but up eight points in a year. Self-centered is unchanged from January s poll, when an 11-point increase brought the total to 47 percent who thought the description applied very well. Perceptions of Christie as a bully are now at 42 percent, nearly flat since January, when they had climbed nine points to 43 percent who saw the term as applying very well. Voters emotional responses to Christie also remain steady since January, after significant decreases in positive feelings and increases in negative feelings following Bridgegate. About a third of voters say they are proud and enthusiastic when they read or hear about the governor, similar to January. Worry, at 45 percent of voters, is up a few points, and anger, at 37 percent, has subsided a bit since earlier this year. A closer look at three traits While the poll examined a wide range of positive and negative traits, Redlawsk said what voters most want their officeholders to be are effective, trustworthy, and strong leaders. As perceptions of these traits become less positive especially among independents and copartisans leaders can lose key bases of support. We may be seeing exactly that over what has become a long year for Christie since last fall s victory, he said. 2

Trustworthy Republicans and men are significantly fueling the declines in perceptions in Christie s trustworthiness. Republicans show the biggest drop since last October: 27 points to 48 percent saying it fits very well today. Most of this damage occurred right after Bridgegate. Among independents, trust as a particularly apt descriptor dropped 23 points in the past year, to 21 percent. Fewer than 10 percent of Democrats, who always have had misgivings about Christie, still ascribe trustworthiness to him. Unlike the 19-point drop in trustworthiness among women, most of which came between October 2013 and January 2014, the 23-point drop among men has occurred more gradually. Today, 23 percent of women and 20 percent of men think trustworthy applies very well to the governor. Effectiveness Republicans, at 55 percent, are now 23 points less likely to say the label effective applies very well to Christie than one year ago. Independents perceptions of effectiveness have dropped 22 points in the same period, to 31 percent. Democrats show a 12-point decline, with 19 percent now saying effective describes Christie very well. Perceptions of effectiveness among men, who typically have been stronger Christie supporters than women, have dropped by 22 points; for women the drop has been 15 points. Among the former group, most of the decline has been in recent months. Strong Leader Perceptions of Christie as a strong leader, which skyrocketed following Superstorm Sandy, are down 25 points (to 48 percent saying the term fits very well) over the past year among independent voters. Among Republicans, the drop is 18 points, although 75 percent still say strong leader describes Christie very well. Just 29 percent of Democrats agree, down 15 points since last October. For Republicans, unlike Democrats and independents, most of this drop occurred immediately after Bridgegate. Only 48 percent of men now say strong leader fits Christie very well, a decline of 22 points in a year. During the same period, women show a 17-point decline to 46 percent, all but erasing the small gender gap that once existed. After Bridgegate crushed Christie s overall ratings, we saw a small rebound this past spring and summer, said Redlawsk. But the continuing loss of support on these key traits, especially among Republicans and men, appears to have caught up with overall perceptions of the governor s favorability and job performance, helping to drag down both of these ratings. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of October 16, 2014 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Note: This release refers extensively to previous releases on trait perceptions of Gov. Christie. These are available at http://bit.ly/1qsrlvm (March 11, 2014), http://bit.ly/1vcyk6r (January 24, 2014) and http://bit.ly/1wgjq1i (October 25, 2103) [QUESTIONS ABOUT FAVORABILITY RATINGS/JOB APPROVAL (released 10/14/14) WERE ASKED BEFORE THE FOLLOWING.] Q. Next, I am going to read a list of words that might describe Governor Christie. For each word, tell me if it describes him very well, somewhat well, or not at all. [RANDOM ORDER] A. Fighter B. Smart C. Strong Leader D. Independent E. Effective F. Sincere G. Fair H. Reformer I. Trustworthy J. Stubborn K. Arrogant L. Self-Centered M. Bully N. Impulsive Fighter Smart Leader Indep Effect Sincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 62% 53% 47% 47% 31% 27% 27% 25% 22% 67% 54% 47% 42% 36% Somewhat 23% 31% 30% 28% 45% 35% 36% 36% 35% 22% 29% 26% 28% 32% Not at All 12% 13% 20% 19% 22% 35% 33% 31% 38% 8% 14% 22% 26% 26% DK 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 3% 8% 5% 3% 3% 5% 4% 7% Unwt N= 728 729 727 729 729 728 727 728 729 729 729 728 730 728 PARTY ID Democrat Fighter Smart LeaderIndep EffectSincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 53% 37% 29% 38% 19% 16% 17% 18% 8% 75% 72% 61% 60% 47% Somewhat 24% 40% 35% 29% 44% 29% 29% 31% 30% 17% 19% 21% 18% 26% Not at All 18% 19% 33% 26% 35% 52% 52% 42% 57% 5% 7% 13% 17% 19% DK 4% 4% 3% 7% 3% 3% 3% 9% 5% 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% Unwt N= 241 241 241 241 241 240 241 240 241 241 241 241 241 241 4

Independent Fighter Smart Leader Indep Effect Sincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 62% 54% 48% 46% 31% 25% 24% 23% 21% 68% 50% 44% 39% 32% Somewhat 24% 29% 33% 29% 50% 41% 43% 41% 40% 21% 34% 29% 31% 38% Not at All 10% 14% 17% 22% 17% 31% 29% 31% 34% 8% 13% 21% 26% 24% DK 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 4% 7% Unwt N= 324 324 322 325 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 325 324 Republican Fighter Smart Leader Indep EffectSincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 78% 80% 75% 66% 55% 50% 54% 43% 48% 50% 34% 30% 19% 25% Somewhat 15% 18% 15% 27% 34% 31% 31% 32% 34% 34% 35% 27% 39% 28% Not at All 4% 2% 6% 3% 9% 15% 13% 15% 14% 14% 28% 38% 39% 40% DK 3% 0% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 11% 4% 1% 4% 5% 3% 8% Unwt N= 160 161 161 160 161 161 160 161 161 161 161 161 161 160 GENDER Male Fighter Smart Leader Indep EffectSincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 61% 58% 48% 42% 31% 29% 25% 22% 20% 68% 57% 49% 43% 36% Somewhat 23% 27% 29% 28% 44% 36% 39% 39% 37% 21% 28% 30% 31% 30% Not at All 13% 13% 21% 25% 24% 33% 33% 34% 38% 8% 12% 17% 21% 28% DK 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 5% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% Unwt N= 344 344 343 345 345 344 344 343 344 344 344 344 345 344 Female Fighter Smart Leader Indep EffectSincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 63% 49% 46% 51% 32% 25% 30% 28% 23% 66% 52% 46% 41% 35% Somewhat 22% 34% 32% 29% 46% 34% 33% 33% 34% 23% 30% 23% 26% 34% Not at All 11% 14% 19% 14% 20% 36% 33% 29% 38% 8% 15% 26% 30% 24% DK 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 4% 4% 10% 5% 3% 3% 5% 3% 7% Unwt N= 384 385 384 384 384 384 383 385 385 385 385 384 385 384 IMPRESSION OF GOV. CHRISTIE Favorable Fighter Smart Leader Indep EffectSincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 78% 84% 83% 67% 58% 53% 55% 47% 47% 49% 23% 18% 13% 20% Somewhat 17% 16% 16% 26% 40% 42% 40% 41% 46% 34% 46% 36% 42% 37% Not at All 2% 1% 0% 4% 1% 3% 3% 8% 5% 16% 29% 41% 43% 38% DK 2% 0% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 5% 2% 1% 1% 4% 3% 6% Unwt N= 330 332 332 332 332 332 331 332 332 331 331 331 332 331 5

Unfavorable Fighter Smart Leader Indep Effect Sincere Fair Reform Trust Stubb Arrog Self Bully Impul Very 47% 29% 14% 30% 9% 3% 5% 7% 1% 85% 82% 76% 69% 52% Somewhat 28% 43% 43% 32% 47% 28% 30% 32% 25% 12% 14% 15% 18% 28% Not at All 22% 26% 41% 32% 42% 67% 63% 55% 71% 2% 2% 7% 10% 15% DK 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 2% 6% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 6% Unwt N= 320 319 317 320 319 318 318 318 319 320 320 319 320 319 Q. How does reading or hearing about Governor Christie make you feel? Please tell me yes or no for each of the following: [RANDOMIZE ORDER] A. Proud B. Enthusiastic C. Worried D. Angry Registered Voters Yes 35% 33% 45% 37% No 61% 64% 53% 60% Don t Know 4% 3% 2% 3% Unwght N= 729 731 731 730 PARTY ID Democrat Yes 16% 20% 62% 53% No 81% 78% 35% 43% Don t Know 3% 3% 2% 4% Unwght N= 240 241 241 240 6

Independent Yes 33% 29% 41% 33% No 61% 68% 56% 66% Don t Know 5% 4% 2% 1% Unwght N= 324 325 325 325 Republican Yes 69% 64% 25% 20% No 29% 33% 73% 76% Don t Know 2% 3% 2% 4% Unwght N= 162 162 162 162 VOTER GENDER Male Yes 32% 32% 44% 36% No 63% 65% 54% 61% Don t Know 5% 3% 3% 4% Unwght N= 343 345 345 344 Female Yes 37% 34% 46% 39% No 60% 63% 52% 59% Don t Know 3% 3% 2% 2% Unwght N= 386 386 386 386 IMPRESSION OF GOV. CHRISTIE Favorable Yes 70% 65% 13% 8% No 25% 32% 86% 91% Don t Know 5% 3% 2% 1% Unwght N= 331 333 333 332 Unfavorable Yes 7% 7% 77% 65% No 93% 92% 22% 33% Don t Know 1% 1% 1% 2% Unwght N= 320 320 320 320 7

September 29 October 5, 2014 The was conducted by telephone using live callers September 29 October 5, 2014 with a scientifically selected random sample of 842 New Jersey adults, including 734 registered voters. This telephone poll included 618 landline and 224 cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 12% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 15% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 66% Landline Only: 7% Data for registered voters (N=734) and all adults (N=842) were weighted separately to the demographics of registered voters and adults in New Jersey, respectively. Both weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 842 adults is +/-3.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.69, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.4 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for 734 registered voters is +/-3.6 percentage points. The weighting design effect for the registered voter sample is 1.36, making the adjusted margin of error +/-4.2 percentage points for the registered voter sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.8 and 54.2 percent (50 +/-4.2) if all New Jersey voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling with additional fielding by Braun Research Inc. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 734 New Jersey Registered Voters 34% Democrat 46% Male 9% 18-24 69% White 46% Independent/Other 54% Female 26% 25-44 12% Black 20% Republican 38% 45-64 11% Hispanic 27% 65+ 8% Asian/Other/Multi 8