Western New England University Polling Institute May 29-31, 2012

Transcription

1 Western New England University Polling Institute May 29-31, TABLES Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? May 29-31, Obama Job Approval Approve Disapprove know/ Adults 54% 36% 10% 552 Registered voters 54% 36% 10% 504 ID** Democrat 91% 5% 5% 160 Republican 12% 80% 8% 71 Independent 47% 41% 12% 257 Gender Male 50% 41% 9% 240 Female 59% 30% 12% 264 Age *** *** *** *** % 40% 8% % 36% 4% and older 50% 37% 13% 159 Education High school or less 54% 34% 12% 107 Some college 52% 32% 16% 132 College graduate 56% 37% 7% 255 Region Western MA 51% 43% 6% 76 Feb.23 March 1, Feb Central MA 49% 47% 4% 61 North / South Shore 48% 36% 15% 163 Boston and suburbs 60% 31% 9% 195 Adults 56% 35% 9% 576 Registered voters 55% 37% 8% 527 Adults 68% 11% 21% 569 Registered voters 68% 11% 22% 524 sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** identification was measured with the following question: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent or something else? ***Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

2 Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people. If you haven't heard of them or don't have an opinion of them, just tell me and we'll move on. (The following questions were preceded by questions that measured favorability for U.S. Senate candidates Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. The names of the presidential candidates were rotated in random order in the survey.) Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Barack Obama Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard of No opinion Registered voters 57% 33% 1% 8% 1% 504 Democrat 93% 5% 1% 1% 0% 160 Republican 13% 79% 0% 7% 1% 71 Independent 52% 37% 0% 8% 2% 257 Gender Male 50% 39% 2% 8% 1% 240 Feb. 23 March 1, Female 64% 28% 0% 7% 1% 264 Registered voters 61% 34% 0% 3% 1% 527 Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Mitt Romney Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard of No opinion Registered voters 36% 50% 0% 12% 2% 504 Democrat 14% 78% 0% 6% 1% 160 Republican 79% 8% 0% 11% 3% 71 Independent 38% 47% 0% 14% 2% 257 Gender Male 41% 44% 0% 12% 3% 240 Feb. 23 March 1, Female 32% 56% 0% 11% 1% 264 Registered voters 41% 46% 1% 11% 2% 527 sum to 100 percent due to rounding. 2

3 If the election for president were held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or some other candidate for president? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Mitt Romney, the Republican? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.) Voter Preferences for the Presidency Registered Voters Obama Romney Undecided Registered voters 56% 34% 9% 1% 504 Democrat 94% 5% 1% 0% 160 Republican 13% 85% 1% 0% 71 Independent 50% 37% 12% 2% 257 Gender Male 49% 40% 10% 1% 240 Female 62% 29% 8% 1% 264 Age ** ** ** ** ** % 36% 10% 0% % 32% 4% 2% and older 55% 38% 7% 0% 159 Education High school or less 56% 28% 16% 0% 107 Some college 56% 34% 9% 2% 132 College graduate 57% 36% 7% 0% 255 Region Western MA 52% 38% 10% 0% 76 Central MA 45% 48% 7% 0% 61 North / South Shore 50% 36% 13% 1% 163 Boston and suburbs 64% 29% 6% 1% 195 Feb. 23 March 1, Registered voters 60% 36% 4% 1% 527 sum to 100 percent due to rounding. **Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents. 3

4 Initial Voter Preferences for the Presidency (Without Leaners) Registered Voters Some other Wouldn t Obama Romney candidate vote Undecided Registered voters 52% 32% 8% 3% 6% 0% 504 Democrat 93% 5% 1% 0% 1% 1% 160 Republican 8% 80% 7% 0% 5% 0% 71 Independent 44% 35% 11% 2% 8% 1% 257 Gender Male 43% 37% 10% 5% 5% 0% 240 Female 60% 27% 6% 1% 6% 1% 264 Age ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 34% 13% 2% 5% 0% % 30% 6% 1% 2% 2% and older 50% 37% 3% 0% 10% 0% 159 Education High school or less 52% 24% 7% 8% 8% 0% 107 Some college 51% 29% 9% 3% 7% 2% 132 College graduate 52% 35% 8% 1% 3% 0% 255 Region Western MA 48% 36% 10% 4% 1% 0% 76 Central MA 44% 46% 7% 0% 4% 0% 61 North / South Shore 45% 31% 8% 5% 11% 1% 163 Boston and suburbs 60% 28% 7% 0% 4% 1% 195 Feb. 23 March 1, Registered voters 56% 33% 7% 1% 3% 1% 527 sum to 100 percent due to rounding **Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

5 As you may know, voters in Massachusetts will elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Scott Brown, the Republican, or more toward Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.) How Obama and Romney Supporters Would Vote if the Senate Election Were Held Today Warren Brown Undecided May 29-31, Registered voters 45% 43% 11% 0% 504 Presidential vote preference Obama supporter or leaner Romney supporter of leaner 76% 16% 7% 0% 283 4% 89% 6% 0% 179 5

6 6 How do you associate Scott Brown with the policies and positions of Mitt Romney? Association Between Scott Brown and Mitt Romney Registered Voters Very Somewhat Not at all Registered voters 16% 48% 21% 16% 504 Democrat 21% 43% 24% 12% 160 Republican 16% 60% 15% 9% 71 Independent 12% 50% 21% 17% 257 Gender Male 14% 48% 23% 14% 240 Female 17% 48% 18% 17% 264 sum to 100 percent due to rounding Does that association make you more likely to vote for Scott Brown, less likely to vote for Scott Brown, or does it make no difference? (The options more likely and less likely were randomly rotated in the question.) Asked of the 324 respondents who said they associated Scott Brown very or somewhat with Mitt Romney. Effect of Brown Romney Association on Likelihood of Voting for Brown More likely Less likely Makes no difference Registered voters 11% 35% 54% 1% 324 Democrat 2% 52% 46% 0% 103 Republican 32% 5% 61% 2% 54 Independent 9% 35% 55% 1% 161 Gender Male 13% 31% 56% 1% 157 Female 9% 38% 52% 1% 167 6

7 7 How do you associate Elizabeth Warren with the policies and positions of Barack Obama? Association Between Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama Registered Voters Very Somewhat Not at all Registered voters 30% 36% 13% 21% 504 Democrat 29% 43% 12% 15% 160 Republican 41% 31% 13% 15% 71 Independent 30% 34% 15% 22% 257 Gender Male 32% 38% 13% 17% 240 Female 29% 33% 13% 25% 264 sum to 100 percent due to rounding Does that association make you more likely to vote for Elizabeth Warren, less likely to vote for Elizabeth Warren, or does it make no difference? (The options more likely and less likely were randomly rotated in the question.) Asked of the 338 respondents who said they associated Elizabeth Warren very or somewhat with Barack Obama. Effect of Warren Obama Association on Likelihood of Voting for Warren More likely Less likely Makes no difference Registered voters 31% 27% 42% 1% 338 Democrat 61% 1% 37% 1% 115 Republican 6% 63% 30% 2% 53 Independent 20% 31% 49% 0% 165 Gender Male 24% 34% 41% 1% 172 Female 38% 19% 42% 0% 166 7

8 8 METHODOLOGY The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interviews with 552 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing May 29-31,. The sample yielded 504 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of registered voters. Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ conducted the telephone interviews under the direction of The Polling Institute. The call center dialed household telephone numbers, known as landline numbers, and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 504 registered voters is +/- 4.4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 55 percent of registered voters said they approved of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.6 percent and 59.4 percent (55 percent +/- 4.4 percent) had all Massachusetts voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects. Established in 2005, the Western New England University Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts and the region. The Institute provides the University s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research. Additional information about the Polling Institute is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst. 8