World IPv6 Trends. George Michaelson APNIC

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Transcription:

World IPv6 Trends George Michaelson APNIC ggm@apnic.net

Stats on IPv6 deployment worldwide

The world is on around 18% IPv6 Capability Capability as in can use IPv6 not necessarily preferring it. Measured as % of sampled users who can fetch an IPv6 addressed web asset embedded in a web advertisement. 15million or more samples per day, worldwide Figures adjusted for relative internet population We over-sample the US, under-sample India Other measures place it slightly higher at 20% or better Consider APNIC a low side count and them as high side count Its pretty well bracketed. It s a high confidence figure. Lets rank the economies by IPv6 capability above and below 18%

Economies Ranked around 18% IPv6 Capability CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC IN 59.65% BE 59.09% US 44.87% DE 37.15% GR 36.71% UY 32.26% CH 28.03% BR 27.95% IE 27.84% MY 27.47% LU 26.64% JP 26.33% FI 25.82% GB 25.21% TT 24.22% EE 23.75% CA 22.57% FR 19.74% NZ 19.53% These ones are above World 18% levels BE 58% IN 56.79% US 45.24% DE 39.71% GR 38.57% UY 33% LU 32.72% CH 30.87% And these ones are below World 18% levels PT 17.83% TH 17.01% AU 16.74% EC 16.67% VN 15.17% NO 14.07% HU 13.36% TW 13.12% MO 12.52% PE 12.35% RO 11.41% SI 11.15% KR 11.04% NL 11.00% SE 10.92% CZ 10.71% MX 10.70% SA 9.83% GT 9.25% ZW 8.90% PR 8.89% SG 7.85% PL 7.83% LK 7.81% AT 7.24% AR 7.00% BT 5.67% BO 5.26% DK 5.05% SK 4.37% EG 3.18% CN 3.16% ES 3.00% BA 3.00% LV 2.98% GA 2.49% IL 2.34% IR 2.25% AE 2.23% IT 2.04% BG 1.66% KE 1.62% RU 1.56% DO 0.94% CO 0.66% TG 0.47% ZA 0.41% IQ 0.36%

How much of the world IPv6 is each economy

How much of the world IPv6 is each economy Lets re-scale this to reflect the % of world Internet broken out by economies and then calculate the % of worldwide IPv6 each economy is contributing by relative size. Lets focus on the top 15.

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India 44%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India 44% USA 20%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India 44% USA Brazil 6% 20%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India 44% Japan 4.7% Brazil 6% USA 20%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India 44% Germany 4.2% Japan 4.7% Brazil 6% USA 20%

Guess which Economy is Which.. RoW 16% India China 3.6% Germany 4.2% 44% Japan 4.7% Brazil 6% USA 20%

Guess which Economy is Which.. Canada 1.1% Vietnam 1.2% France 1.7% UK 2.4% China 3.6% Germany 4.2% Japan 4.7% Brazil 6% RoW 16% USA 20% India 44%

Lets mark out some economic groups

G8 CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC IN 59.65% BE 59.09% US 44.87% DE 37.15% GR 36.71% UY 32.26% CH 28.03% BR 27.95% IE 27.84% MY 27.47% LU 26.64% JP 26.33% FI 25.82% GB 25.21% TT 24.22% EE 23.75% CA 22.57% FR 19.74% NZ 19.53% BE 58% IN 56.79% US 45.24% DE 39.71% GR 38.57% UY 33% LU 32.72% CH 30.87% All the G8 on the board PT 17.83% TH 17.01% AU 16.74% EC 16.67% VN 15.17% NO 14.07% HU 13.36% TW 13.12% MO 12.52% PE 12.35% RO 11.41% SI 11.15% KR 11.04% NL 11.00% SE 10.92% CZ 10.71% MX 10.70% SA 9.83% GT 9.25% ZW 8.90% PR 8.89% SG 7.85% PL 7.83% LK 7.81% AT 7.24% AR 7.00% BT 5.67% BO 5.26% DK 5.05% SK 4.37% EG 3.18% CN 3.16% ES 3.00% BA 3.00% LV 2.98% GA 2.49% IL 2.34% IR 2.25% AE 2.23% IT 2.04% BG 1.66% KE 1.62% RU 1.56% DO 0.94% CO 0.66% TG 0.47% ZA 0.41% IQ 0.36%

G20 CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC IN 59.65% BE 59.09% US 44.87% DE 37.15% GR 36.71% UY 32.26% CH 28.03% BR 27.95% IE 27.84% MY 27.47% LU 26.64% JP 26.33% FI 25.82% GB 25.21% TT 24.22% EE 23.75% CA 22.57% FR 19.74% NZ 19.53% BE 58% IN 56.79% US 45.24% DE 39.71% GR 38.57% UY 33% LU 32.72% CH 30.87% Missing: ID, TR PT 17.83% TH 17.01% AU 16.74% EC 16.67% VN 15.17% NO 14.07% HU 13.36% TW 13.12% MO 12.52% PE 12.35% RO 11.41% SI 11.15% KR 11.04% NL 11.00% SE 10.92% CZ 10.71% MX 10.70% SA 9.83% GT 9.25% ZW 8.90% PR 8.89% SG 7.85% PL 7.83% LK 7.81% AT 7.24% AR 7.00% BT 5.67% BO 5.26% DK 5.05% SK 4.37% EG 3.18% CN 3.16% ES 3.00% BA 3.00% LV 2.98% GA 2.49% IL 2.34% IR 2.25% AE 2.23% IT 2.04% BG 1.66% KE 1.62% RU 1.56% DO 0.94% CO 0.66% TG 0.47% ZA 0.41% IQ 0.36%

OECD CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC IN 59.65% BE 59.09% US 44.87% DE 37.15% GR 36.71% UY 32.26% CH 28.03% BR 27.95% IE 27.84% MY 27.47% LU 26.64% JP 26.33% FI 25.82% GB 25.21% TT 24.22% EE 23.75% CA 22.57% FR 19.74% NZ 19.53% BE 58% IN 56.79% US 45.24% DE 39.71% GR 38.57% UY 33% LU 32.72% CH 30.87% Missing TR, IS, CL PT 17.83% TH 17.01% AU 16.74% EC 16.67% VN 15.17% NO 14.07% HU 13.36% TW 13.12% MO 12.52% PE 12.35% RO 11.41% SI 11.15% KR 11.04% NL 11.00% SE 10.92% CZ 10.71% MX 10.70% SA 9.83% GT 9.25% ZW 8.90% PR 8.89% SG 7.85% PL 7.83% LK 7.81% AT 7.24% AR 7.00% BT 5.67% BO 5.26% DK 5.05% SK 4.37% EG 3.18% CN 3.16% ES 3.00% BA 3.00% LV 2.98% GA 2.49% IL 2.34% IR 2.25% AE 2.23% IT 2.04% BG 1.66% KE 1.62% RU 1.56% DO 0.94% CO 0.66% TG 0.47% ZA 0.41% IQ 0.36%

Take-away messages There is no strong indication that specific sector-economy drivers are making IPv6 happen We have strong, developed G8/G20 economies with little or no IPv6 We have emerging Internet Economies with significant IPv6 There are signs suggesting a two-track internet is an emerging risk Lack of investment (capex or opex) to upgrade to dualstack or IPv6 IPv6 is interesting because of the future potential to innovate Don t get caught behind incumbent thinking!

Looking into the top 10 economies Canada 1.1% Vietnam 1.2% France 1.7% UK 2.4% China 3.6% Germany 4.2% Japan 4.7% Brazil 6% RoW 16% USA 20% India 44%

Lets look at the top 10 in more detail

Whats going on inside these economies? Look at the per-as statistics on when their top ASN (by measured share of experiments) enabled IPv6. Focusses on the most impactful ASN, and their deployment stories What can this say about competitive tension in services? Can we see signs of active competition in IPv6? Do we see signs of market dominance?

How to interpret the charts AS55836 - RELIANCEJIO-IN Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited AS38266 - HUTCHVAS-AS Vodafone Essar Ltd., Telecommunication - Value Added Services AS45271 - ICLNET-AS-AP Idea Cellular Limited AS45609 - BHARTI-MOBILITY-AS-AP Bharti Airtel Ltd. AS for GPRS Service AS9829 - BSNL-NIB National Internet Backbone 716 other ASN %IPv6 %IPv4

How to interpret the charts AS NUMBER and WHOIS Nice name AS55836 - RELIANCEJIO-IN Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited Width of the box is % of economies IPv6 AS38266 - HUTCHVAS-AS Vodafone Essar Ltd., Telecommunication - Value Added Services AS45271 - ICLNET-AS-AP Idea Cellular Limited AS45609 - BHARTI-MOBILITY-AS-AP Bharti Airtel Ltd. AS for GPRS Service AS9829 - BSNL-NIB National Internet Backbone 716 other ASN %IPv6 %IPv4

How to interpret the charts Length denotes %capable AS55836 - RELIANCEJIO-IN Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited AS NUMBER and WHOIS Nice name Width of the box is % of economies IPv6 AS38266 - HUTCHVAS-AS Vodafone Essar Ltd., Telecommunication - Value Added Services AS45271 - ICLNET-AS-AP Idea Cellular Limited AS45609 - BHARTI-MOBILITY-AS-AP Bharti Airtel Ltd. AS for GPRS Service AS9829 - BSNL-NIB National Internet Backbone 716 other ASN %IPv6 %IPv4

India 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS55836 - RELIANCEJIO-IN Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited ASAS38266 - HUTCHVAS-AS Vodafone Essar Ltd., Telecommunication - Value Added Services ASAS45271 - ICLNET-AS-AP Idea Cellular Limited % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% India Reliance Bharti Mobile Hutchinson TTSL ASAS45609 - BHARTI-MOBILITY-AS-AP Bharti Airtel Ltd. AS for GPRS Service 10.00% ASAS9829 - BSNL-NIB National Internet Backbone 870 other ASN 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

USA ASAS21928 - T-MOBILE-AS21928 - T-Mobile USA, Inc. ASAS22394 - CELLCO - Cellco Partnership DBA Verizon Wireless 100.00% 90.00% ASAS7018 - ATT-INTERNET4 - ATT Services, Inc. ASAS10507 - SPCS - Sprint Personal Communications Systems 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS7922 - COMCAST-7922 - Comcast Cable Communications, LLC ASAS20057 - ATT-MOBILITY-LLC-AS20057 - ATT ASAS22773 - ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC Mobility LLC - ASAS20115 Cox - CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC Communications Inc. - Charter ASAS701 - UUNET Communications - MCI Communications ASAS209 Services, - CENTURYLINK-US-LEGACY-QWEST Inc. dba Verizon Business - Qwest Communications Company, LLC % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% USA Comcast Verizon TMobile Charter Cox Sprint 20.00% 3747 other ASN 10.00% %IPv6 %IPv4 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 Date

Brazil ASAS26599 - TELEFNICA BRASIL S.A ASAS26615 - Tim Celular S.A. 100.00% 90.00% ASAS28573 - CLARO S.A. 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS27699 - TELEFNICA BRASIL S.A ASAS18881 - TELEFNICA BRASIL S.A ASAS7738 - Telemar Norte Leste S.A. ASAS8167 - Brasil Telecom SA - Filial Distrito Federal ASAS22085 - Claro SA % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% Brazil Claro Telmar (NE) Brazil Telecom Tim Cellular telefonica 3833 other ASN 10.00% 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

Japan 100.00% ASAS2516 - KDDI KDDI CORPORATION 90.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS2518 - BIGLOBE BIGLOBE Inc. ASAS2527 - SO-NET So-net Entertainment Corporation ASAS17676 - GIGAINFRA Softbank BB Corp. ASAS4713 - OCN NTT Communications Corporation ASAS9605 - DOCOMO NTT DOCOMO, INC. ASAS17511 - K-OPTICOM K-Opticom ASAS9824 Corporation - JTCL-JP-AS Jupiter Telecommunication Co. Ltd % IPv6 Capable 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% Japan KDDI Biglobe SoNET Softbank OCN NTT DoCoMo NTT IIJ 200 other ASN 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

Germany ASAS8881 - VERSATEL 100.00% ASAS31334 - KABELDEUTSCHLAND-AS ASAS6830 - LGI-UPC formerly known as UPC Broadband Holding B.V. 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS3320 - DTAG Internet service provider operations ASAS29562 - KABELBW-ASN ASAS6805 - TDDE-ASN1 ASAS39706 - O2-GERMANY-AS ASAS3209 - VODANET International IP- Backbone of Vodafone % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% Germany Deutsche TeleKom Kabel Deutschland Liberty Global (UPC) Versatel Kabel BW 0.00% 231 other ASN 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

China 10.00% 9.00% ASAS4134 - CHINANET-BACKBONE No.31,Jinrong Street 8.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS4837 - CHINA169-BACKBONE CHINA UNICOM China169 Backbone ASAS4808 - CHINA169-BJ China Unicom Beijing Province Network ASAS4812 - CHINANET-SH-AP China Telecom ASAS9808 - CMNET-GD (Group) Guangdong Mobile Communication Co.Ltd. % IPv6 Capable 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% China ChinaNet ASAS45090 - CNNIC-TENCENT-NET-AP Shenzhen Tencent Computer Systems Company Limited 1.00% %IPv6 99 other ASN %IPv4 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 Date

United Kingdom 100.00% ASAS5607 - BSKYB-BROADBAND-AS 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS2856 - BT-UK-AS BTnet UK Regional network ASAS12576 - ORANGE-PCS ASAS13285 - OPALTELECOM-AS TalkTalk ASAS6871 Communications - PLUSNET UK Internet Limited Service Provider % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% United Kingdom Sky BT Orange ASAS5089 - NTL 20.00% 10.00% ASAS9105 - TISCALI-UK ISP Network, UK 308 other ASN 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

France 100.00% ASAS3215 - AS3215 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS12322 - PROXAD ASAS5410 - ASN-BOUYGTEL-ISP ASAS16276 - OVH % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% France Orange France Proxad Bouygtel 20.00% ASAS15557 - LDCOMNET 10.00% ASAS12876 - AS12876 ASAS51207 - FREEM ASAS21502 - ASN-NUMERICABLE 168 other ASN 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

Vietnam ASAS18403 - FPT-AS-AP The Corporation for Financing Promoting Technology 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS45899 - VNPT-AS-VN VNPT Corp % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% Vietnam VNPT FPT ASAS7552 - VIETEL-AS-AP Viettel Group 20.00% 10.00% ASAS24086 - VIETTEL-AS-VN Viettel Corporation %IPv6 %IPv4 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 Date

Canada ASAS812 - ROGERS-COMMUNICATIONS - Rogers Communications Canada Inc. 100.00% 90.00% ASAS852 - ASN852 - TELUS Communications Inc. 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS7992 - COGECOWAVE - Cogeco Cable ASAS16276 - OVH ASAS6327 - SHAW - Shaw Communications Inc. ASAS5769 - VIDEOTRON - Videotron Telecom Ltee ASAS577 - BACOM - Bell Canada % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% Canada Telus Rogers Cogego Cable ASAS855 - CANET-ASN-4 - Bell Canada ASAS803 - SASKTEL - Saskatchewan Telecommunications 20.00% 10.00% 385 other ASN 0.00% 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

Belgium ASAS12392 - ASBRUTELE VOO 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% % Eyeball Share ASAS6848 - TELENET-AS ASAS5432 - BELGACOM-SKYNET-AS % IPv6 Capable 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% Belgium BelgaCom TeleNet Brutele 10.00% 0.00% ASAS47377 - MES KPN Belgium Business NV has been acquired by Mobistar 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 %IPv6 %IPv4 Date

Observations/Conclusions Economically diverse economies are deploying IPv6 There are signs it encourages competition in the ISP sector There are signs that some economies have very entrenched, dominant ISPs IPv6 is a significant element of global Internet deployment Its too big to ignore Its fate is not certain, but the trends are very encouraging It looks like good capital investment to deploy Where is your economy in this story?

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