System Flexibility Indicators Operational Forum, 26 May 21
Introduction There is potential for greater volatility in gas flows in future years driven, in particular, by: Growth in renewable sources of electricity generation CCGTs may become the marginal source of generation New sources of gas supply (more LNG, more fast cycling storage etc.) Greater supply, demand and linepack variation may result, both within day and across days A more flexible NTS may therefore be required by our customers
Introduction We want to monitor indicators of such trends to predict any requirement for change 2 industry workshops held in 29 to develop leading and lagging indicators Final Proposals on indicators presented to the February 21 Transmission Workstream Phase 1 we can do now Phase 2 we need to do further work on Agreed to report on indicators to Operational Forum every 6 months Phase 1 today, phase 2 to be included next time
Phase 1 Leading Indicators Supply 1) Day on day difference in proportion of supply from the North & South 2) Day on day difference in supply by group LNG UKCS Norway ICs Storage Linepack 1) Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes 2) Frequency of linepack changes at particular thresholds 3) Within day PCLP changes Demand 1) Within day demand variation by sector 2) Flow flexibility usage by sector ICs Storage Power stations DN offtakes
Phase 1 Lagging Indicators Supply 1) Use of Operating Margins gas 2) Use of entry buybacks 3) Use of entry scalebacks Supply & Demand 1) Residual balancing frequency 2) Residual balancing volumes 3) Residual balancing costs
Leading Supply Indicators
Leading Supply Indicator 1: Day to Day North / South Supply Volatility M aximum day-to-day diffe re nce in pe rce ntage of supply from Northern ASEPs, by month 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 This graph shows the maximum day on day change per month in the percentage of total supply from Northern ASEPs. Eg. if on one day 255 mcmd came from North and 117 mcmd from South (68% from North) then on the next day 257 mcmd came from North and 12 mcmd from South (71% from North), the day to day percentage change would be 3%. If this was the highest in that month, 3% would be plotted on the graph.
Leading Supply Indicator 1: Day to Day North / South Supply Volatility Day-to-day difference in supply from North and South on the days of maximum change 6 4 2 mcm -2 North South -4-6 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 This graph shows the associated volume changes from the previous graph. The green ring shows Northern supply responding to an increased demand whereas the red ring shows little change in demand but a change in location of supplies. Using the example numbers quoted on the previous slide, +2 mcmd would be plotted against 'North' and -15 mcmd against 'South'.
Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group Maximum day-to-day absolute difference in percentage of supply from LNG, by month 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 This (and the following 4 graphs) shows the maximum day on day change per month in the percentage of total supply from different supply groups. Eg. if the supply from LNG was 5 mcmd on a day and 35 mcmd on the next day against total NTS supplies of 38 mcmd (13%) and 37 mcmd (9%) respectively, the day to day percentage change would be 4%. If this was the highest in that month, 4% would be plotted on the graph.
Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group Maximum day-to-day absolute difference in percentage of supply from UKCS, by month 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1
Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group Maximum day-to-day absolute difference in percentage of supply from Norway, by month 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1
Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group M axim u m day-to-d ay absolute d ifference in percen tag e of supply from IUK&BBL, by month 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1
Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group Maximum day-to-day absolute difference in percentage of supply from Storage, by month 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 A pr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 A pr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1
Leading Linepack Indicators
Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes Daily Range of Hourly Linepack: Monthly Maximum 3 25 2 mcm 15 1 5 Apr-1 Oct-1 Apr-2 Oct-2 Apr-3 Oct-3 Apr-4 Oct-4 Apr-5 Oct-5 Apr-6 Oct-6 Apr-7 Oct-7 Apr-8 Oct-8 Apr-9 Oct-9 Apr-1 This graph plots the maximum range on any day in each month between the highest and lowest hourly NTS linepack. Eg. if the highest hourly linepack recorded was 33 mcm and the lowest was 315 mcm on the same day and that constituted the largest daily range in that particular month, 15 mcm would be plotted on the graph for that month.
Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes 3 Within-day Max-Min Range of NTS Linepack Winter 8/9 Winter 9/1 25 2 15 1 5 1/1/8 1/11/8 1/12/8 1/1/9 1/2/9 1/3/9 1/4/9 1/5/9 1/6/9 1/7/9 1/8/9 1/9/9 1/1/9 1/11/9 1/12/9 1/1/1 1/2/1 1/3/1 MCM Date Rolling Monthly Average
Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes 3 25 2 Within-day Max-Min Range of NTS Linepack GBA Dates > 4/1/21 > 7/1/21 > 9/1/21 > 11/1/21 15 1 5 1/1/9 8/1/9 15/1/9 22/1/9 29/1/9 5/11/9 12/11/9 19/11/9 26/11/9 3/12/9 1/12/9 17/12/9 24/12/9 31/12/9 7/1/1 14/1/1 21/1/1 28/1/1 4/2/1 11/2/1 18/2/1 25/2/1 4/3/1 11/3/1 18/3/1 25/3/1 Date MCM
Leading Linepack Indicator 2: Frequency of within day changes Hourly linepack - daily range - by year 2 18 16 number of days 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Apr-5 to Mar-6 Apr-6 to Mar-7 Apr-7 to Mar-8 Apr-8 to Mar-9 Apr-9 to Mar-1 to 5 5 to 1 1 to 15 15 to 2 2 to 25 25 to 3 m ore daily range of hourly linepack, m cm This graph shows, for the last 5 years, the distribution of the maximum daily range of hourly linepack. Eg. for Apr-5 to Mar-6, the maximum daily range was less than 5 mcm on just below 1 days, was between 5 and 1 mcm on approximately 16 days etc.
Leading Linepack Indicator 2: Within-day PCLP swings Predicted Closing Linepack (PCLP) Daily Range of Hourly PCLP: Monthly Maximum and Average 8 7 6 5 mcm 4 3 2 1 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 monthly maximum monthly average PCLP = Opening linepack + System Inputs (Daily Flow Nominations and Storage Flow Nominations) System Demand (Offtake Profile Notifications) This graph shows ranges of hourly PCLP values during the gas day.
Leading Demand Indicators
Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly Interconnector Demand: D aily Maximum Minus Minimum 4 3.5 3 mcm / hour 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 5/4/9 5/5/9 5/6/9 5/7/9 5/8/9 5/9/9 5/1/9 5/11/9 5/12/9 5/1/1 5/2/1 5/3/1 5/4/1 This graph (and the next 3) shows the difference between the maximum hourly volume offtaken and the minimum hourly volume offtaken for each demand sector. This graph displays the results for the Bacton and Moffat interconnectors.
Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly Storage Demand: Daily Maximum Minus Minimum 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 5/4/9 5/5/9 5/6/9 5/7/9 5/8/9 5/9/9 5/1/9 5/11/9 5/12/9 mcm / hour 5/1/1 5/2/1 5/3/1 5/4/1
Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly Power Station Demand: Daily Maximum Minus Minimum 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 5/4/9 5/5/9 5/6/9 5/7/9 5/8/9 5/9/9 5/1/9 5/11/9 5/12/9 mcm / hour 5/1/1 5/2/1 5/3/1 5/4/1
Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly LDZ Demand: Daily Maximum Minus Minimum 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 5/4/9 5/5/9 5/6/9 5/7/9 5/8/9 5/9/9 5/1/9 5/11/9 5/12/9 mcm / hour 5/1/1 5/2/1 5/3/1 5/4/1
23/4/21 16/4/21 9/4/21 2/4/21 26/3/21 19/3/21 Leading Demand Indicator 2: Flow flexibility usage by sector NTS Exit Flow Flexibility by Sector 1 8 6 4 2 mcm -2-4 -6-8 12/3/21 5/3/21 26/2/21 19/2/21 12/2/21 5/2/21 29/1/21 22/1/21 15/1/21 8/1/21 1/1/21 Date IND INT OT PS STOR
Lagging Indicators
Lagging Supply Indicator 1: Use of Operating Margins Gas Operating Margins Utilisation 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1/4/22 1/4/23 1/4/24 1/4/25 1/4/26 1/4/27 Utilisation Volume (GWh) 1/4/28 1/4/29 Year starting 3 Number of days Utilisation volume (GWh) Number of days 2 1
Lagging Supply Indicator 2: Entry Capacity Buybacks Entry Capacity Buyback History 3 25 2 15 1 5 Apr-2 Aug-2 Dec-2 Apr-3 Aug-3 Dec-3 Apr-4 Aug-4 Dec-4 Apr-5 Aug-5 Dec-5 Apr-6 Aug-6 Dec-6 Apr-7 Aug-7 Buyback Quantity (GWh) Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 month
Lagging Supply Indicator 3: Interruptible Entry Capacity Scaleback Volume of Entry Capacity Scaleback Actions 25 2 15 mcm 1 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 to 3 April Calendar Year
Lagging Supply & Demand Indicator 1: Number of days of residual balancing actions Residual Balancing Actions - Number of days days 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 to 3 Apr Calendar Year Buy Sell Buy and Sell
Lagging Supply and Demand Indicator 2: Residual Balancing Annual Volumes Residual Balancing Actions - Annual Volumes mcm 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 to 3 Apr Calendar Year Buy Sell
Lagging Supply and Demand Indicator 3: Residual Balancing Annual Costs Residual Balancing Actions - Annual Costs m 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 to 3 Apr Calendar Year Buy Sell
Summary Clear trends of increasing volatility are hard to detect at this stage The majority of indicators at this stage show either: flat profiles; seasonal profiles; or some volatility but with no underlying trend For some indicators, we don t yet have enough data to make a judgement We will continue to add to the datasets and report to the industry Additional indicators are in development