Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty Presentation to: Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research Scotiabank Economics, Toronto FCPC Supply Chain Symposium Toronto, Ontario April,
Global Growth & Industrial Activity Global Economic Growth 9 7 - - - - Emerging Markets Global Growth forecast - Global Orders & Production index Global New Orders Global Industrial Production month annualized % change - Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,
Global Growth: Changing Gears Developed World Gears Up China & Brazil Gear Down GDP, annual % change GDP, annual % change -7-7 - - f f f f - U.S. Euro zone Japan - India China Mexico Brazil Source: Bloomberg, BEA, Statistics, Eurostat, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,
Leading Indicators Strengthen Employment U.S. Bank Lending y/y % change y/y % change Global Employment - - U.S. Leading Economic Indicator U.S. Employment - - - - - - - Total Loans C&I Loans - - - - - - - 9 9 9 9 9 - Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Grey bars denote U.S. recession periods.
Benefits From A Strengthening U.S. Recovery Real GDP Exports y/y % change Ontario forecast y/y % change, -month moving average Quebec - United States Ontario - - - Source: Statistics, U.S. BEA, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,
Rising Orders Point To Further Momentum Durable Goods Orders y/y % change, -month moving average Manufacturing Leads Export Gains y/y % change, -month moving average Unfilled Orders - Resources United States Other - - Source: Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce, Scotiabank Economics.
Household Finances U.S. Households Canadian Households % of PDI % of PDI Average: 9- Canadian Consumer Spending - Energy & Debt Charges U.S. Consumer Spending - - - - Average: 9- Energy & Debt Charges - - 9 9 9 9 9-9 9 9 9 9 - Source: BEA, Statistics. 7
Low Debt Service Costs Debt Service Ratio Debt Service Ratio % of PDI % of PDI B.C. 9 9 Ontario Atlantic Alberta 7 Quebec 7 Man./Sask. 7 9 7 9 Source: Statistics, Equifax, Scotiabank Economics.
Interest Rates & Inflation Remain Low Central Bank Rates Consumer Price Inflation % y/y % change, year-end U.K. U.S. U.K. forecast forecast U.S. Euro zone Euro zone Source: Bank of, U.S. Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. - Source: Statistics, BLS, Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March, 9
Oil Market Volatility WTI Oil & Canadian Dollar Supply/Demand Fundamentals US dollars per barrel US cents y/y % change 9 Canadian Dollar Global Oil Demand Global Oil Supply 9 7 WTI forecast 7 - - 9 Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts at March,
Grocery Shopping Trends & Alberta Central & B.C. -month moving average, -month moving average, B.C. Alberta Quebec - Ontario - - - - - - - - - Source: Statistics, Scotiabank Economics.
Transportation Fundamentals Intermodal Outbound Traffic International Trade Boosts Truck Volumes -month moving average, Western Canadian International Trade Eastern Cross Border Truck Traffic - - - - - - - - Source: Statistics, Bloomberg.
Transportation Fundamentals Fundamentals Strengthen Decade-High Truck Demand In N. America % 7 s of units s of units U.S. Trucking Industry Pricing* Class Order Backlog Class Orders EBITDA Margins (CN Rail & CP Rail) * Revenue per loaded mile, -quarter moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Global Auto Report.
Trucking Capacity Trends North American Monthly Class Truck Order & Production Trends thousands of units Orders -- Month Moving Average Orders Estimated Industry Replacement Rate Production 99 7 9 Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Global Auto Report.
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