GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
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- Calvin Barton
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1 It s All About the Timing The only substantive change to our forecast this month is to shift the timing of expected increases by the Federal Reserve, but leave the total amount of tightening unchanged. Incoming data continue to suggest that the US economy is expanding at a healthy clip and that inflationary pressures are on the rise. This suggests that the Federal Reserve will next raise its target rate in June rather than in the second half of the year. We remain of the view that the Fed will only raise rates by 50 basis points through year-end, with another increase expected in September. The rise in the Libor-OIS spread, remaining uncertainty on possible trade actions, and the increase in longer-term yields lead us to believe that the Fed will raise rates very gradually to address inflationary pressures. CONTACTS Jean-François Perrault, SVP & Chief Economist Scotiabank Economics jean-francois.perrault@scotiabank.com In Canada, we continue to forecast another 50 basis points of tightening by the Bank of Canada this year, with the next hike taking place in July. Market expectations are placing an increasingly large probability of the next move being on May 30, but we think this is premature given Governor Poloz s admitted desire to move rates very gradually. This forecast incorporates Statistics Canada s first round of provincial real GDP estimates for We have tweaked our provincial forecast to account for these data but the dynamics of projected output gains are largely as we laid out in our April Global Outlook. While growth will decelerate sharply in most provinces, it will largely remain well above sustainable rates. Alberta and BC will remain the growth leaders this year and next. 1
2 International f 2019f f 2019f Real GDP (annual % change) World (based on purchasing power parity) Consumer Prices (y/y % change, year-end) Canada United States Mexico United Kingdom Eurozone Germany France China India Japan South Korea Australia Thailand Brazil Colombia Peru Chile Commodities (annual average) WTI Oil (USD/bbl) Brent Oil (USD/bbl) WCS - WTI Discount* (USD/bbl) Nymex Natural Gas (USD/mmbtu) Copper (USD/lb) Zinc (USD/lb) Nickel (USD/lb) Aluminium (USD/lb) Iron Ore (USD/tonne) Metallurgical Coal (USD/tonne) Gold, London PM Fix (USD/oz) 869 1,251 1,257 1,310 1,300 * average. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, BEA, BLS, IMF, Bloomberg. 2
3 North America f 2019f f 2019f Canada (annual % change, unless noted) Real GDP Consumer spending Residential investment Business investment Government Exports Imports Nominal GDP GDP deflator Consumer price index (CPI) CPI ex. food & energy Pre-tax corporate profits Employment Unemployment rate (%) Current account balance (CAD, USD bn) Merchandise trade balance (CAD, USD bn) Federal budget balance* (FY, CAD, USD bn) percent of GDP Housing starts (000s, mn) Motor vehicle sales (000s, mn) 1,657 1,949 2,041 2,000 1, Industrial production Mexico (annual % change) Real GDP Consumer price index (year-end) Current account balance (USD bn) Merchandise trade balance (USD bn) Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC, BEA, BLS, Bloomberg. * Canada federal deficit ex risk adjustment of $3.0bn for FY19. United States (annual % change, unless noted) Quarterly Forecasts Canada Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Real GDP (q/q ann. % change) Real GDP (y/y % change) Consumer prices (y/y % change) Avg. of new core CPIs (y/y % change) United States 2017 Real GDP (q/q ann. % change) Real GDP (y/y % change) Consumer prices (y/y % change) CPI ex. food & energy (y/y % change) Core PCE deflator (y/y % change) Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, BEA, BLS, Bloomberg
4 2017 Central Bank Rates Q4 Q1 Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Americas Bank of Canada US Federal Reserve (upper bound) Bank of Mexico Central Bank of Brazil Bank of the Republic of Colombia Central Reserve Bank of Peru Central Bank of Chile Europe European Central Bank Bank of England Asia/Oceania Reserve Bank of Australia Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Reserve Bank of India Bank of Korea Bank of Thailand Currencies and Interest Rates Americas Canadian dollar (USDCAD) Canadian dollar (CADUSD) Mexican peso (USDMXN) Brazilian real (USDBRL) Colombian peso (USDCOP) 2,986 2,794 2,900 2,900 2,950 2,950 3,000 3,000 3,050 Peruvian sol (USDPEN) Chilean peso (USDCLP) Europe Euro (EURUSD) UK pound (GBPUSD) Asia/Oceania Japanese yen (USDJPY) Australian dollar (AUDUSD) Chinese yuan (USDCNY) Indian rupee (USDINR) South Korean won (USDKRW) 1,067 1,064 1,060 1,040 1,040 1,030 1,030 1,020 1,020 Thai baht (USDTHB) Canada (Yields, %) 3-month T-bill year Canada year Canada year Canada year Canada United States (Yields, %) 3-month T-bill year Treasury year Treasury year Treasury year Treasury Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg (%, end of period) (end of period)
5 The Provinces Real GDP CA NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC * f f Nominal GDP e f f Employment f f Unemployment Rate (%) f f Housing Starts (units, 000s) f f Motor Vehicle Sales (units, 000s) , , , f 2, f 1, Budget Balances, Fiscal Year Ending March 31 (CAD mn) (annual % change except where noted) ** -2, , , , ,191-3, ,520-6, ,770-1, , ,218-10,784 2, f*** -19, , f*** -15, , , Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC, Budget documents. * Real GDP by industry, basic prices. ** MB:FY04 FY16; AB:FY05 FY16. *** Federal & Provinces' FY18 & FY19: Budget documents. Federal FY19: ex risk adjustment of $3.0bn. 5
6 This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a call to action or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations. Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment. This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank. Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with Global Banking and Markets, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including, Scotiabanc Inc.; Citadel Hill Advisors L.L.C.; The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company of New York; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Limited; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorised by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorised by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., and Scotia Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities. Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
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