Morning Insight September 12, 2018 x 123 FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY KCSPL Research Morning Insight aims to give clients a brief price outlook and key Pivot levels on commodities before market opening. The report also includes key economic events scheduled for the day as well as a brief outlook on Indian currency. The detailed analysis on the commodity will be followed in our daily sectorial reports. Data and Events due today Date IST Currency Data Forecast Previous Importance 12-Sep 14:30 EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.50% -0.70% Low 17:30 INR CPI y/y 3.80% 4.20% Medium INR Industrial production 6.50% 7.00% Medium 18:00 USD PPI m/m 0.20% 0.00% Medium 19:00 USD Fed Bullard Speaks Medium 20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.6M -4.3M Medium 22:15 USD Fed Brainard Speaks Medium 23:30 USD Beige Book Low Indian rupee- Indian rupee has opened lower by 0.3% and hit a fresh record low level of 72.9138 against the US dollar. Rupee remains pressurized by higher crude oil price, general optimism about US economy, Fed rate hike view and contagion fear in emerging market economies. Brent crude trades above $79 per barrel amid bigger than expected decline in US crude stocks and storm concerns in the Atlantic. Trade related worries and contagion fear has continued to keep pressure on emerging market currencies and equity market. The sell-off in rupee has increased pressure on RBI to take stronger action to stem the currency's slide. Rupee may continue to remain under pressure unless we see stability in financial markets or some correction in crude oil price. USDINR may trade in a range of 72.6-73.3 and bias may be on the upside. Bullion MCX Gold and Silver may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange. Domestic gold price will continue to be supported by weaker rupee hence one should wait for higher levels to create short positions. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1195/oz amid lack of fresh cues. The US dollar index has also turned choppy amid mixed cues. Weighing on US dollar is optimism about Brexit deal which has propped up European currencies. However, supporting US dollar is optimism about US economy and safe haven buying amid trade worries and contagion fear in emerging markets. Trade worries persist as President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US was taking a very tough stance with China on trade however there has been no announcement on fresh tariffs. Trump claimed progress in talks with Canada but no deal reached yet. Also weighing on price is weaker investor interest. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell to 745.176 tonnes, the lowest level since Feb.2016. Gold may continue to trade in a narrow range amid lack of fresh cues but sell on rise is suggested as optimism about US economy will underpin US dollar. COMEX Silver trades weaker near $14/oz amid rangebound movement in gold and mixed trade in industrial metals. Silver has tested the lowest level since Jan.2016 amid concurrent losses in gold and industrial metals. With persisting trade worries and upbeat outlook for US dollar, weakness in commodities at large will continue. Silver s continual fall has also pushed gold silver ratio to multiyear high and stood at 84.7 yesterday. ETF inflows however show buying interest in silver. Silver holdings with ishares ETF were unchanged yesterday at 10377.9 tonnes after inflows earlier in the week. Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 1
Focus today will be on US economic data and Fed comments which will affect US dollar. Risk sentiment will be affected by trade related development and trend in emerging market economies. Kindly refer to Pivot table for support and resistance levels for Bullion contracts Base Metals Most Base metals on LME trade higher today after ending on a lower note yesterday. LME Lead continued to be the worst hit with prices falling by another3.1% following 2.4% slide on Monday. In other metals, Zinc and Aluminium closed 2.9% and 2.4% lower respectively while Nickel and Copper ended 1.45% and 0.9% lower respectively. Most base metals trade higher in early trades today as prices take breather following yesterday s selloff. Also supporting prices is modest retreat in US Dollar today and falling stocks of most metals at both LME and SHFE warehouses. The gains may however be capped amid demand worries tracking escalating trade war between US-China and its impact on global health. Also putting pressure is weakness in equity market and general uptrend in US Dollar. Asian equity markets trade with a weaker bias in early trades today despite US markets ending 0.4% higher yesterday. Weighing on indices is lingering trade war worries especially between US-China along with fears of contagion of turmoil in emerging markets. There has been no new development on trade front after Trump s last week threat of imposing tariff on virtually all of Chinese imports to US and China's foreign ministry warning on Monday that the nation will retaliate if US takes any new steps on trade. Meanwhile US Dollar Index trades modestly lower today following positive close yesterday. The currency continues to remain supported by safe haven demand, general optimism over US economy and expectation of two more rate hike by US Fed this year. The upside may also be capped amid growth worries in top consumer China tracking recent spate of weak data and ongoing trade war with US. Focus will now shift to China s industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment data due on Friday. Meanwhile on fundamental front metals like Aluminium and steel making commodities like - Zinc and Nickel may come under pressure following reports from Reuters that China was considering allowing its northern provinces to determine their own restrictions on industrial output this winter. Aluminium, for which northern China is a major producing area, has come under pressure amid expectations that provincial curbs could remove less supply than the 30% cuts stipulated in a draft central government document released last month. Steel prices in China too have declined by nearly 5% in past two sessions following the news dragging stainless steel making ingredient, Nickel and steel galvanizing material, Zinc with it. The metals pack may note some gains amid breather rally the uptrend may however fail to sustain tracking bleak macro factors. Focus today will be on US data along with comments from Fed officials and its impact on US Dollar. Also focus will be on development related to US trade policies related to China and Canada its impact on general sentiment. Kindly refer Pivot table below for daily support resistance of MCX Base metals contracts. Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 2
Energy Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX crude trades higher near $70 per barrel after a 2.5% gain in previous session. Supporting crude price is API weekly report which noted a sharp 8.64 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks. API however noted a bigger than expected rise in gasoline and distillate stocks. Storm activity in Atlantic has also resulted in some risk premium. Hurricane Florence is moving towards the US East Coast while a weather pattern is developing near the Gulf of Mexico. Florence is not expected to hurt refineries or production however storm activity could cause fuel shortages. Meanwhile, storm activity in Gulf of Mexico could result in some production outages if it strengthens. Reports that gunmen shot and killed two people at Libya s National Oil Corp. headquarters added to supply concerns. Also supporting crude are supply concerns relating to Iran as buyers have started reducing purchases in face of US economic sanctions. Meanwhile, EIA in its monthly report, lowered forecast for US crude production. However, weighing on price is higher OPEC, Russia and US crude production and demand concerns amid trade war worries and contagion fear in emerging market economies. Crude may continue to trade higher ahead of inventory report. EIA is expected to note a 1.6 million barrels decline in US crude oil. Focus will be on US crude production. Also in focus will be OPEC s monthly outlook and US economic data. Support for MCX Crude September contract is seen at Rs.5000 while Resistance is seen at Rs.5130. Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX natural gas trades higher after yesterday s 0.9% gain. Supporting gas price is forecast of hot weather in parts of US which will keep cooling demand high. Also supporting price is expectations of a smaller than average decline in gas stocks. Narrowing gap between gas and coal price will also increase demand for power sector. Rising European gas price has also increased export demand for US gas. EIA in its month report raised demand forecast and lowered production estimate for 2018. Storm activity in Atlantic has also resulted in some risk premium. Hurricane Florence is moving towards the US East Coast while a weather pattern is developing near the Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas may trade with a positive bias ahead of inventory report and as market players assess storm situation but we do not see a sustained rise. Support for MCX Natural gas September contract is seen at Rs.203.5 while Resistance is seen at Rs.208. Edible Oil complex Palm Oil: BMD Palm oil market was closed for two days and resumed its trading this morning on Wednesday. The third month contract is seen trading at 2260 down by 0.22% from the previous close price. Market is seen steady despite the CBOT Soy oil was down last evening in the US. We think the traders are awaiting the MPOB data which is rescheduled today at 10 AM IST. We think the expectations are set onto higher supply- higher production and higher ending stocks. However, any major deviation in the price will have its impact on the price. The exports figure will also be important to watch out for. According to cargo surveyor Inter, Malaysia s September 1-10 palm oil exports rose 63.0 percent to 489,492 tons compared to 300,326 tons in corresponding period last month. Top buyers were European Union 180,167 tons (73,031 tons), India & subcontinent 69,395 tons (66,100 tons) and China at 49,200 tons (16,700 tons). Values in brackets are figures of corresponding period last month. If the exports increases substantially then the market might not see major decline in the price. The details of the report shall be facilitated upon release. Coming to Indian market, the September future ended the session on Tuesday at Rs. 605.90 no change from previous close. Interestingly the trading volumes were also very negligible. In the absence of BMD market the MCX palm oil was steady. We think market could see good volatile session today. The trading range for the day would be Rs. 600 to Rs. 608.50 and recommend selling with strict stop loss above Rs. 610. Mustard Seed: Mustard seed price was steady on Tuesday s trading session with marginal negative bias. The active October future ended the session at Rs. 4214 down by Rs. 3 but it had made an intraday low price of Rs. 4181 per quintal. As per market news, NAFED Continued to struggle in selling the stocks that they hold. On 5th Sep only 2560 tons of Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 3
mustard was auctioned in the price range Rs. 3813 to 3998 per quintal. At the end of the day NAFED holds 8.67 lakh tons of stocks in their warehouses. Overall we expect market to remain sideways and more selling would be witness only if huge selling takes place in the market. On the technical side, the market for October future is expected to trade in the range of Rs. 4170 to Rs. 4245, inside range. Further on the market, there are reports circulating that Centre may allot INR 10 billion for covering the difference between the market price and MSP of all oilseeds. This is yet to get confirmed but is indicating towards huge subsidy coming into primary sector. As there are quite definite chance that the prices will rule below MSP the announcement can come before the harvest starts. NAFED has to play a significant role in procuring the oilseeds and also tackle the storage issues. Stockiest role will be limited and prices will be a function of the pace by which the stock is released in the market. As the market moves into lean season any delay in selling of stock has the potential to create severe shortage in the market. Soy Oil: Ahead of USDA data, CBOT soy oil active December contract price declined by 26 points or 1% on Tuesday to settle at 28.08 cents/pound. Price decreased against contract high aggregated open interest since August and decent volume, which signals at short accumulation. Today again, price have opened at the lowest level since contract inception at 28.06 and is expected to fall below 28 mark by the end of sessions on apprehension of better than forecasted production numbers. Besides, after two consecutive holidays, CPO, a close substitute of soy oil, has also opened weak today on BMD amid reports of huge stock pile ups in Malaysia. Tracking cues from international markets, Soy oil prices have corrected in both spot as well as future market. However, good demand in physical markets due to festive season has minimized the impact of slump in global prices and arrested the down fall to some extent. Soy oil spot price at Benchmark Indore market marginally declined by 0.2% and reached Rs.745.95/10 kg. Similarly, soy oil October future price on NCDEX also fell by 0.2% to settle at Rs.746.05/10 kg yesterday. An increase was seen in Argentina export price as their govt. is moving ahead with plans to levy more duty on soy oil & soya meal exports. As on September 11th, Soy oil October future price was trading at premium of only 2 points compared to Import cost from Argentina which stood at Rs.744/kg. Limited supply of soybean and good demand during festive season will support soy oil prices for near terms. Besides, increase in import price from Argentina will also keep the overall sentiment bullish in soy oil. Soybean: Despite reports of better than last year crop condition in U.S., CBOT Soybean active November contract price fell by 14 points or 1.7% to settled at $831.75 cents/bushel. Price corrected against higher aggregated open interest and good volumes which hints at short accumulation. Ahead of data release by USDA, analysts have pegged U.S. soybean output estimate to cross 121 million tone mark in September report. Though China has resorted to Brazilian soybean crop to cater its huge demand for beans, diminishing stocks with Brazil will compel to China to source some of its requirement from U.S. even at 25% import duty. As our expectation, with disregard to correction in international markets, Soyabean active October future price on NCDEX surged by 26 points or 0.8% and settled at Rs.3,262/quintal yesterday amid falling supply and good demand from Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 4
crushing units. While, Soybean prices at Benchmark Indore market marginally corrected by 3 points and reached at Rs.3,442/quintal yesterday. Though soyabean sowing has not increased as per expected growth rate of 10-15% higher from previous year, with no signs of crop damage and adequate rainfall, soyabean crop yield is expected to rise significantly this season, which will keep overall output by at least 10-12% higher than last year s output of 109 lakh MT. Till September 7th, Soyabean acreage across the country was reported at 111.92 lakh Hectares, which is 6.3% higher than same period last year. Acreage in largest soyabean producing state, Madhya Pradesh has crossed 53 lakh Ha, compared to 50 lakh Ha last year. We expect soyabean price to trade marginally lower for coming days as prospects of higher production in U.S. and new crop arrivals in coming weeks will keep soybean prices under pressure. Cotton December future ICE cotton ended at 8289, down 96 points. It had a 186 point gain previous day. Market traded down amid trade war worries between US and China continued while currencies are troubling a lot in the market. Broadly commodities ended lower while US equity markets were positive. Also market has failed to break 84.25 cents key resistance level hence it continued to trade in the four week s sideways range. We strongly think unless the range of 80.50 and 84.25 are cleared either side it may have another such week where cotton price may remain sideways. On the trading front the volumes were slightly thin. The aggregate volumes were around 20K contracts and the open interests maintained near 255K contracts. Traders are largely quiet ahead of Wednesday s USDA_WASDE report releasing at 9 pm IST. From the other side of the world, China s ZCE futures had a 2nd session with very small gains. The ZCE has also traded sideways for about 4 weeks. Chinese State Reserve cotton on Tuesday s auction had a turnover rate of 85.47 percent, spinners only. Offered were 30,000.4579 tons (137,792 bales); and sold were 25,642.7037 tons (117,777 bales). The cumulative turnover rate is 58.67 percent (offered versus sold). This auction series started at 24.1 million bales and 13.71 million bales remain. Coming to domestic market the spot price was mostly calm last week however; s-6 price for the old crop has increased marginally to Rs. 47,650 per candy ex-gin which translates to 84.05 cents per pound given the exchange rate. Likewise, rates for 2017-18 Punjab J-34 have also moved higher to an average of Rs. 4,765 per maund (80.05 cents per lb). New crop J-34 is quoted at Rs. 4,690 (78.80 cents/lb) for delivery by September 20 and at Rs. 4,720 (79.30 cents/lb) for an end of September delivery. The discount applied to the earliest available supplies is attributed to increased moisture and lower quality parameters in the first arrivals of the season. The MCX cotton future for October contract has ended the session at Rs. 23030 down by Rs. 140 from the previous close. It was a volatile day for cotton as it moved in the range of Rs. 23240 to Rs. 22970 per bale. Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 5
Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals This morning ICE cotton is seen trading steady, ZCE futures are quiet but the domestic currency has further depreciated to PIVOT ANALYSIS FOR MAJOR COMMODITIES trade near record low price of 72.85 per one US dollar. We think Indian cotton future might trade sideways today. The COMMODITY S4 S3 S2 S1 PP R1 R2 R3 R4 trading range would be Rs. 22930 to Rs. 23180 per bale. Spot Gold 1165.2 1174.6 1184.1 1189.8 1193.5 1199.3 1203.0 1212.4 1221.9 MCX Gold Oct 18 30054 30257 30460 30589 30663 30792 30866 31069 31272 MCX Gold Dec 18 30338 30526 30714 30835 30902 31023 31090 31278 31466 MCX Gold Mini Oct 18 30123 30308 30493 30613 30678 30798 30863 31048 31233 MCX Gold Mini Nov 18 30250 30426 30602 30715 30778 30891 30954 31130 31306 Spot Silver 13.22 13.51 13.81 13.96 14.10 14.26 14.39 14.69 14.98 MCX Silver Dec 18 35790 36295 36800 37101 37305 37606 37810 38315 38820 MCX Silver Mar 19 36681 37146 37611 37886 38076 38351 38541 39006 39471 MCX Silver Mini Nov 18 35872 36360 36848 37136 37336 37624 37824 38312 38800 MCX Silver Mini Feb 19 36581 37087 37593 37899 38099 38405 38605 39111 39617 LME Copper 5404 5561 5718 5789 5875 5946 6032 6189 6346 MCX Copper Nov 18 395.7 405.8 415.8 420.7 425.9 430.7 435.9 446.0 456.0 MCX Copper Feb 19 402.0 411.9 421.7 426.5 431.6 436.4 441.4 451.3 461.1 LME Zinc 2108 2183 2259 2285 2334 2360 2410 2485 2561 MCX Zinc Sep 18 154.1 159.6 165.0 167.0 170.5 172.5 175.9 181.4 186.8 MCX Zinc Oct 18 157.7 162.2 166.6 168.2 171.1 172.7 175.5 180.0 184.4 LME Nickel 11440 11720 12000 12115 12280 12395 12560 12840 13120 MCX Nickel Sep 18 838.8 856.5 874.2 880.8 891.9 898.5 909.6 927.3 945.0 MCX Nickel Oct 18 846.4 863.3 880.2 886.2 897.1 903.1 914.0 930.9 947.8 LME Aluminum 1901 1954 2007 2026 2060 2079 2113 2166 2219 MCX Aluminium Sep 18 138.1 141.5 145.0 146.2 148.4 149.7 151.9 155.3 158.8 MCX Aluminium Oct 18 140.0 143.3 146.7 147.9 150.0 151.2 153.4 156.7 160.1 LME Lead 1759 1834 1910 1937 1985 2013 2061 2136 2212 MCX Lead Sep 18 131.6 135.6 139.6 141.2 143.6 145.2 147.6 151.6 155.6 MCX Lead Oct 18 134.1 137.7 141.3 142.8 144.9 146.4 148.5 152.1 155.7 MCX Brass Sep 18 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 MCX Brass Oct 18 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 369.9 NYMEX Crude 61.32 63.85 66.38 67.82 68.91 70.35 71.44 73.97 76.50 MCX Crude Oil Sep 18 4507 4670 4833 4939 4996 5102 5159 5322 5485 MCX Crude Oil Oct 18 4533 4690 4847 4949 5004 5106 5161 5318 5475 NYMEX Natural Gas 2.66 2.71 2.77 2.80 2.82 2.85 2.87 2.92 2.97 MCX Natural Gas Sep 18 195.2 198.4 201.6 203.5 204.8 206.7 208.0 211.2 214.4 MCX Natural Gas Oct 18 198.0 200.6 203.2 204.8 205.8 207.4 208.4 211.0 213.6 Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 6
Spices Guar Pulses & Grains Cotton Oilseeds Complex PIVOT ANALYSIS FOR MAJOR COMMODITIES COMMODITY S4 S3 S2 S1 PP R1 R2 R3 R4 CBOT Soybean 781.1 799.8 818.6 825.2 837.3 843.9 856.1 874.8 893.6 NCDEX Soybean Oct 18 3087 3141 3195 3228 3249 3282 3303 3357 3411 NCDEX Soybean Nov 18 3086 3148 3210 3249 3272 3311 3334 3396 3458 NCDEX Mustard Sep 18 4026 4064 4102 4118 4140 4156 4178 4216 4254 NCDEX Mustard Oct 18 4061 4110 4159 4187 4208 4236 4257 4306 4355 CBOT Soy oil 27.12 27.47 27.82 27.95 28.17 28.30 28.52 28.87 29.22 NCDEX Ref-Soyoil Sep 18 735.3 738.0 740.7 741.8 743.4 744.5 746.1 748.8 751.5 NCDEX Ref-Soyoil Oct 18 736.7 740.0 743.3 744.7 746.6 748.0 749.9 753.2 756.5 BMD CPO 3rd Month 2218 2234 2250 2258 2266 2274 2282 2298 2314 MCX CPO Sep 18 594.2 598.5 602.8 604.3 607.1 608.6 611.4 615.7 620.0 MCX CPO Oct 18 601.9 604.6 607.3 608.4 610.0 611.1 612.7 615.4 618.1 NCDEX Castor Seed Sep 18 4461 4512 4563 4583 4614 4634 4665 4716 4767 NCDEX Castor Seed Oct 18 4556 4604 4652 4674 4700 4722 4748 4796 4844 ICE Cotton Dec 18 77.06 79.01 80.96 81.93 82.91 83.88 84.86 86.81 88.76 MCX Cotton Oct 18 22270 22540 22810 22920 23080 23190 23350 23620 23890 MCX Cotton Nov 18 22167 22397 22627 22723 22857 22953 23087 23317 23547 NCDEX Kapas Apr 19 1128 1140 1152 1157 1164 1169 1176 1188 1200 NCDEX CS Oilcake Sep 18 1558 1601 1644 1661 1687 1704 1730 1773 1816 NCDEX CS Oilcake Dec 18 1584 1630 1677 1694 1723 1740 1770 1816 1863 NCDEX Chana Sep 18 3532 3637 3742 3807 3847 3912 3952 4057 4162 NCDEX Chana Oct 18 3746 3824 3902 3953 3980 4031 4058 4136 4214 NCDEX Delhi Wheat Sep 18 1916 1948 1980 1994 2012 2026 2044 2076 2108 NCDEX Kota Wheat Oct 18 2001 2011 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2051 2061 NCDEX Maize Rabi Sep 18 1317 1326 1335 1340 1344 1349 1353 1362 1371 NCDEX Maize Kharif Oct 18 1342 1351 1360 1365 1369 1374 1378 1387 1396 NCDEX Guar Seed Oct 18 4078 4150 4222 4250 4294 4322 4366 4438 4510 NCDEX Guar Seed Nov 18 4144 4210 4276 4302 4342 4368 4408 4474 4540 NCDEX Guar Gum 5 Oct 18 8805 8965 9125 9188 9285 9348 9445 9605 9765 NCDEX Guar Gum 5 Nov 18 8938 9090 9242 9298 9394 9450 9546 9698 9850 NCDEX Jeera Sep 18 17895 18315 18735 18980 19155 19400 19575 19995 20415 NCDEX Jeera Oct 18 18480 18850 19220 19450 19590 19820 19960 20330 20700 NCDEX Dhaniya Sep 18 4416 4516 4616 4667 4716 4767 4816 4916 5016 NCDEX Dhaniya Oct 18 4856 4957 5058 5107 5159 5208 5260 5361 5462 NCDEX Pepper Sep 18 40170 40170 40170 40170 40170 40170 40170 40170 40170 NCDEX Pepper Oct 18 40385 40385 40385 40385 40385 40385 40385 40385 40385 NCDEX Turmeric Sep 18 5921 6099 6277 6337 6455 6515 6633 6811 6989 NCDEX Turmeric Oct 18 6425 6513 6601 6649 6689 6737 6777 6865 6953 MCX Cardamom Sep 18 1396 1396 1396 1396 1396 1396 1396 1396 1396 MCX Cardamom Oct 18 1338 1376 1414 1431 1452 1469 1490 1528 1566 MCX Mentha Oil Sep 18 1714 1739 1763 1776 1788 1801 1813 1838 1863 MCX Mentha Oil Oct 18 1729 1756 1783 1795 1809 1822 1836 1863 1890 Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 7
Aurobinda Gayan- Vice President Research aurobinda.gayan@kotakcommodities.com Fundamental Team Madhavi Mehta- AVP Bullion; Energy madhavi.mehta@kotakcommodities.com Priyanka Jhaveri- AVP Base Metals priyanka.jhaveri@kotakcommodities.com Mohit Vyas- Senior Manager Agriculture mohit.vyas@kotakcommodities.com Technical Team Ashok Kamrani- Senior Manager Anup Sahu- Manager ashok.kamrani@kotakcommodities.com anup.sahu@kotakcommodities.com Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to seller or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Kotak Commodity Services Private Limited. It doesn't constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Kotak Commodity Services Private Limited, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving commodity derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a commodity's price movement and trading volume as opposed to focusing on a commodity's fundamentals and as such may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. We do not have any information other than information available to general public. The report is based on information from sources like respective industry associations, FICCI, CII, companies, media and other public sources. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading may make trading decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodity/ (ies) discussed herein or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject commodity and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Kotak Commodity Services Private Limited's prior written consent. Registered Office: Kotak Commodity Services Private Ltd., Nirlon house, 1st Floor, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Opp. Sasmira, Near Old Passport Office, Worli, Mumbai-400030. CIN No. U65910MH1987PTC042230.Fax:+912224924696. Customer care no. 1800 102 6776. Website: www.kotakcommodities.com. SEBI registration no.: INZ000044135. NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0479. MCX/TCM/CORP/0026. NCDEX - 00155. MCX - 10440. Trading in commodities is subject to market risk and one should read the Risk Disclosure Document carefully prior to trading Morning Insight Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page 8