ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 7/11/4 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:3 p.m. Tuesday, July 13, 24 Confidence Rests at a Five-Month Peak Consumer confidence took a breather this week after a sharp three-week rally, with the ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index its highest in five months. The index stands at -7 on its scale of +1 to -1, not a significant change from last week s -8 but up from a recent low of -2 a month ago. Its 13-point gain in the last month followed a nine-point drop from mid-may to mid-june after gasoline prices soared. Gas prices since have eased, apparently encouraging the rally in confidence. This week, though, the price per gallon increased by 2 cents to $1.92 per gallon, its first rise in seven weeks. It peaked at $2.6 in late May. Consumer Confidence Since 22 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 1/13/2 2/17/2 3/24/2 4/28/2 6/2/2 7/7/2 8/11/2 9/15/2 1/2/2 11/24/2 12/29/2 2/2/3 3/9/3 4/13/3 5/18/3 6/22/3 7/27/3 8/31/3 1/5/3 11/9/3 12/14/3 1/18/4 2/22/4 3/28/4 5/2/4 6/6/4 7/11/4 At -7, the index is slightly above its long-term average, -9, since this weekly survey began in late 1985. And it s far better than its level, -46, at this time in 1992, the year broad economic discontent forced George W. Bush s father from office. INDEX The index is based on Americans ratings of their personal finances, the buying climate and the national economy. This week 41 percent say the economy's in good shape
and 42 percent call it a good time to buy things, matching their best since early February. Most, 56 percent, say their own finances are OK. ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week Last week 6/13/4 18-yr. avg. National economy 41% 41 34 4 Buying climate 42 42 34 39 Personal finances 56 55 52 57 Consumer Comfort Index -7-8 -2-9 TREND The ABC/Money index has been as high as +38 in January 2 and as low as -5 in February 1992. Its best annual average was +29 in 2; its worst, -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, its worst year since 1994. This year s average to date is -13. 4 3 2 Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ +38 1 Recession starts 3/1-1 -2-3 -4 Recession starts 7/9-5 -6 12/8/1985 12/8/1986 12/8/1987 12/8/1988 12/8/1989 12/8/199 12/8/1991 12/8/1992 12/8/1993 12/8/1994 12/8/1995 12/8/1996 12/8/1997 12/8/1998 12/8/1999 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/8/23 ABC/Money Index Today -7 Last week -8 Two weeks ago -11 Four weeks ago -2 Recent low -28 March 23 Recent high -3 January 24 24 average (to date) -13 23 average -19 22 average -11 21 average +4
2 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS Confidence, as usual, is best among better-off Americans. The index is +21 among higher-income people while -54 among those with the lowest incomes. It s +7 among college graduates while -36 among high-school dropouts, -2 among whites but -46 among blacks and +6 among men while -2 among women. There also are vast partisan differences in this election year: The index is +42 among Republicans, but -1 among independents and -47 among Democrats. And it s worse this week in the Northeast (-18) than in other regions. Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 9 8 7 Personal Finances 6 5 Buying Climate 4 3 2 1 National Economy 1/26/86 7/27/86 1/25/87 7/26/87 1/24/88 7/24/88 1/29/89 7/3/89 1/28/9 7/29/9 1/27/91 7/28/91 1/26/92 7/26/92 1/24/93 7/25/93 1/23/94 7/24/94 1/22/95 7/23/95 1/21/96 7/21/96 1/19/97 7/2/97 1/18/98 7/19/98 1/17/99 7/18/99 1/16/ 7/16/ 1/14/1 7/15/1 1/13/2 7/14/2 1/12/3 7/13/3 1/11/4 7/11/4 Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: NATIONAL ECONOMY Forty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 41 3 38 59 4 19 Avg. since 12/85 4 4 37 6 4 2
PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 55 percent last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug. 3, 1998, and matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 56 6 5 44 29 15 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 3 13 BUYING CLIMATE Forty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 42 4 38 58 4 18 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 2 METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1, adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1, interviews in the four weeks ending July 11, 24, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Cheryl Arnedt. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-619.
7/11/4 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -7-8 -2-14 -21-3 -22-15 State of Economy -18-18 -32-34 -46-12 -46-33 Personal Finances 12 1 4 14 8 18 4 12 Buying Climate -16-16 -32-22 -26-14 -32-23 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men 6 5-13 -8-14 14-15 -6 Women -2-19 -26-19 -28-11 -28-22 Age: 18-34 -11-6 -17-7 -17 3-23 -13 35-44 -12-17 -29-6 -26-29 -13 45-54 -3-1 -13-2 -24-1 -24-14 55-64 -6-13 -22-17 -18 3-36 -17 65+ -2-3 -19-27 -23-2 -33-17 Income: Under $15K -54-6 -61-54 -55-42 -68-54 $15K To $24.9K -32-32 -61-32 -34-22 -61-39 $25K To $39.9K -21-21 -37-21 -43-8 -44-27 $4K To $49.9K 18 17-13 -9-9 2-29 -6 Over $5K 21 2 1 9 6 29 2 14 $5K To $74.9K 16 14 ---------------NA--------------- $75K To $99.9K 26 29 ---------------NA--------------- Over $1K 25 2 ---------------NA--------------- Region: Northeast -18-12 -23-27 -28-6 -31-19 Midwest -2-5 -29-18 -2 1-29 -16 South -7-8 -19-6 -19-1 -24-12 West -5-6 -9-2 -22 9-28 -12 Race: White -2-1 -14-8 -15 3-19 -1 Black -46-49 -51-51 -54-28 -68-43 Politics: Republican 42 42 2 37 7 43 5 26 Democrat -47-46 -43-35 -37-28 -47-38 Independent -1-9 -21-35 -24-2 -4-21 Education: < High School -36-32 -6-34 -56-26 -6-41 High Sch. Grad. -15-17 -3-2 -19-5 -32-2 College + 7 7-3 -12 12-15 -2 Home: Own -2-1 -8-1 -15 7-16 -6 Rent -22-27 -46-24 -43-22 -46-34 Marital Status: Single -22-21 -29-2 -33-8 -37-23 Married 8 9-9 -2-15 11-15 -2 Sep/Wid/Div -26-3 -38-34 -36-22 -46-36 Employ. Status: Full-Time 6 5-14 -7-12 12-16 -4 Part-Time -31-29 -14-12 -36 5-36 -17 Not Employed -18-19 -3-23 -31-16 -36-26