Confidence Edges Up As Gas Prices Abate

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 5/8/5 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, May 1, 25 Confidence Edges Up As Gas Prices Abate After reaching an 11-month low last week, consumer confidence has recovered slightly, alongside the year s biggest one-week drop in gasoline prices. The average price of gas lost five cents per gallon in the latest weekly survey from the U.S. Department of Energy, and it s down nine cents from its recent peak. Consumers seem to have taken note: The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index inched up by three points this week, back to the narrow range it held throughout April. In addition to lower gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report on Friday exceeded expectations. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since /11/4 2/1/4 2/22/4 3/14/4 4/4/4 4/25/4 5/16/4 6/6/4 6/27/4 7/18/4 8/8/4 8/29/4 9/19/4 1/1/4 1/31/4 11/21/4 12/12/4 1/2/5 1/23/5 2/13/5 3/6/5 3/27/5 4/17/5 5/8/5 INDEX The index is now -16 on its scale of +1 to -1; last week, at -19, it was its lowest since last year. It s based on Americans assessments of their personal finances up three points this week and of the national economy and buying climate, each essentially unchanged

2 ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week Last week 25 avg. 19-yr. avg. National economy 34% Buying climate Personal finances Consumer Comfort Index TREND The CCI started the year at -9 and held relatively stable until late March, when it lost eight points in two weeks amid spiking gas prices. It s been between -16 and -19 since. The index is now seven points below its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985, four points below its 25 average and five points off its average last year. Its best year was 2, when it averaged +29 and hit a one-week peak of +38; its worst was 1992, when it averaged -44 and reached a one-week low of ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ Recession starts 3/ Recession starts 7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/199 12/8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/8/23 12/8/24 ABC/Post CCI Today -16 Last week high -7 March 6 25 average average average average average +29 Best full year

3 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, Record high Feb. 9, Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS As is typical, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +38 among higherincome Americans while -67 among those with the lowest incomes, -4 among college graduates while -42 among those who haven t finished high school, -13 among whites but -47 among blacks and -7 among men while -24 among women. The confidence gap between men and women, at 17 points, is back to its 19-year average. The index is similar regionally, from -14 in the South and West to -19 in the Northeast. It's +21 among Republicans, but -23 among independents and -36 among Democrats a big gap, but far less than at its partisan height last year. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December Personal Finances 6 5 Buying Climate National Economy 1 5/25/86 2/15/87 11/8/87 7/31/88 4/3/89 1/21/9 1/14/9 7/7/91 3/29/92 12/2/92 9/12/93 6/5/94 2/26/95 11/19/95 8/11/96 5/4/97 1/25/98 1/18/98 7/11/99 4/2/ 12/24/ 9/16/1 6/9/2 3/2/3 11/23/3 8/15/4 5/8/5 Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-four percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/

4 PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good, up three points from last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug. 3, 1998, matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 33 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1, adults in the four weeks ending May 8, 25. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same. Analysis by Jon Cohen. ABC News polls can be found online at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212)

5 5/8/5 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg Group GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index State of Economy Personal Finances Buying Climate OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men Women Age: Income: Under $15K $15K To $24.9K $25K To $39.9K $4K To $49.9K Over $5K $5K To $74.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $1K N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast Midwest South West Race: White Black Politics: Republican Democrat Independent Education: < High School High Sch. Grad College Home: Own Rent Marital Status: Single Married Sep/Wid/Div Employ. Status: Full-Time Part-Time Not Employed