Gas Prices Hurt, But it's Been Worse

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 3/20/05 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, March 22, 2005 Gas Prices Hurt, But it's Been Worse Most Americans say spiking gasoline prices are causing them financial hardship but for now at least, broader consumer confidence is holding the line. Fifty-seven percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say $2-plus gas is hurting their family s finances, and 29 percent say it s hurting seriously. But that's down from 64 percent last May (37 percent seriously), when gas was five cents cheaper than it is now. Thicker skin when it comes to gas prices (up 33 cents since January) may be one reason the ABC/Post Consumer Confidence Index has held steady. The index stands at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100 this week, matching both its 2005 average and its long-term average in weekly polls since late Are Gas Prices Causing You Financial Hardship? ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup polls 90% 80% 70% 60% 40% 59% 41% 61% 39% 64% 36% 56% 44% 52% 48% 53% 47% 54% 46% 64% 36% 60% 57% 50% 43% 40% 30% Yes No 20% 10% 0% 2/15/00 3/12/00 4/2/00 5/24/00 6/25/00 4/29/01 4/28/02 4/18/04 5/23/04 3/20/05 As gas prices spiked last May, by contrast, the index fell five points, to -16. And from May to mid-june it lost nine points.

2 The change in gas prices this time has been less dramatic, which may help explain why it s been less disruptive. Prices spiked to $2 a gallon last spring from a lower point ($1.51 in January 2004, for example). Since last May, however, they ve stayed above $1.75. The U.S. Department of Energy reported this week that pump prices now average $2.11 a gallon an all-time high in nominal terms, though in inflation-adjusted terms the peak was much higher, $3.08 in March There are other factors in the economy, though, and in raising interest rates by a quarter point today the Federal Reserve noted that "labor market conditions continue to improve gradually" and the increase in energy prices "has not notably fed through to core consumer prices." These also could be helping to steady consumer confidence. Still, 57 percent is a substantial number to report financial hardship as a result of gas prices. It compares with an average of 47 percent in polls since GROUPS People in lower-income households feel the biggest pinch: Sixty-eight percent say gas prices are hurting them, compared with 41 percent of those in $75,000+ households. There are also some regional differences, with hardship because of gas prices ranging from 50 percent in the Northeast to 60 percent in the South. Have rising gasoline prices caused you financial hardship? Yes NET Yes, Serious All 57% 29 Income <$25k $75K South West Midwest Northeast BLAME More Americans are now blaming George W. Bush for the rising oil and gas prices 34 percent do, up from 27 percent last May. And Bush is also receiving more blame than others: Fewer, 19 percent, blame U.S. oil companies and 23 percent blame other oil producing countries. Blame for Higher Gas Prices Bush admin. Other countries Oil companies 3/20/ /23/ There s a strongly partisan aspect to this blame: Fifty-seven percent of Democrats blame Bush for rising gas prices (up 10 points from last May), compared with 29 percent of independents and 12 percent of Republicans. Younger and lower-income adults also are more apt to blame Bush.

3 This poll finds no difference in reported hardship as a result of gas prices between car drivers and SUV drivers, even though SUV s tend to get low gas mileage. One possible reason is that SUV drivers are better-positioned to afford it: High-income people are three times as likely as those with the lowest incomes to drive SUVs. INDEX The ABC/Post index is made up of ratings of the economy, the buying climate and personal finances. This week, 37 percent say the economy's in good shape, 39 percent call it a good time to buy things and 60 percent say their own finances are OK. All are within a few points of their long-term averages. ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week Last week 2005 avg. 19-yr. avg. National economy 37% Buying climate Personal finances Consumer Comfort Index ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since /04/04 01/25/04 02/15/04 03/07/04 03/28/04 04/18/04 05/09/04 05/30/04 06/20/04 07/11/04 08/01/04 08/22/04 09/12/04 10/03/04 10/24/04 11/14/04 12/05/04 12/26/04 01/16/05 02/06/05 02/27/05 03/20/05 INDEX TREND At -9 the index is well off its peak, +38 in January 2000, but also far from its worst, -50 in February As noted, it matches its average, -9 in weekly polls since December ABC/Post CCI Today -9 Last week -8 One month ago average high

4 2005 low average average average average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, Record high Feb. 9, Record low Average since 12/ ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ Recession starts 3/ Recession starts 7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/2004 INDEX GROUPS As usual, the index is better in better-off groups: +29 among higherincome Americans while -57 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -40 among those who haven t finished high school, -3 among whites but -52 among blacks and -3 among men while -16 among women. The index is best in the Northeast and West, worst in the Midwest. And it remains much higher among Republicans (+28) than among independents (-15) or Democrats (-35). Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor

5 This week Avg. since 12/ PERSONAL FINANCES Sixty percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 59 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January The worst was 42 percent on March 14, Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 40 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, The worst was 20 percent in fall Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December Personal Finances Buying Climate National Economy /06/86 12/28/86 09/20/87 06/12/88 03/12/89 12/03/89 08/26/90 05/19/91 02/09/92 11/01/92 07/25/93 04/17/94 01/08/95 10/01/95 06/23/96 03/16/97 12/07/97 08/30/98 05/23/99 02/13/00 11/05/00 07/29/01 04/21/02 01/12/03 10/05/03 06/27/04 03/20/05 METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending March 20, The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

6 The gas prices results are based on an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted by telephone March 16-20, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same. Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found online at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212)

7 03/20/05 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg Group GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index State of Economy Personal Finances Buying Climate OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men Women Age: Income: Under $15K $15K To $24.9K $25K To $39.9K $40K To $49.9K Over $50K $50K To $74.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $100K N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast Midwest South West Race: White Black Politics: Republican Democrat Independent Education: < High School High Sch. Grad College Home: Own Rent Marital Status: Single Married Sep/Wid/Div Employ. Status: Full-Time Part-Time Not Employed

8 1. On another subject, have recent price increases in gasoline caused any financial hardship for you or others in your household, or not? (IF YES) Has that been a serious hardship, or not serious? Yes Net Serious Not serious No No opin. 3/20/ * 5/23/ /18/ /28/ * 4/29/ * 6/25/00* 44 na na 56 * 5/24/ * 4/2/ * 3/12/ * 2/15/00 40 " " 60 * *6/25 and previous by Gallup; slightly different wordings. 2. Who do you blame for the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices - (other oil-producing countries), (U.S. oil companies), or (the Bush administration)? Other oilproducing U.S. oil Bush None Other All equal No countries companies admin. (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op. 3/20/ /23/ /15/00* *Clinton administration. 3. If you drive, what kind of vehicle do you usually drive - a car, an SUV, a pickup truck, or what? Pickup Van/ Something Don't No Car SUV truck Minivan else drive (vol.) op. 3/20/ * ***END***