CHRISTIE RATING CLIMBS TO 50 PERCENT IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 June 12, 2012 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Professor David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134, 732-932-9384, ext. 285, or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Visit http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. CHRISTIE RATING CLIMBS TO 50 PERCENT IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL Governor s highest favorability since taking office but gender gap grows NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J Gov. Chris Christie s favorability and job performance ratings are at their highest since he became New Jersey s chief executive in January 2010, according to the latest. For the first time, 50 percent of registered New Jersey voters feel favorably toward Christie an increase of four percentage points since late March. Those with an unfavorable opinion have declined to 39 percent, while 11 percent continue to hold no opinion. Christie s job performance grades also have improved as voters become more favorable toward him. The governor received an A or B grade from 46 percent of respondents, up 3 points. Those grading him as D or F fell three points to 29 percent. Almost one-quarter (24 percent) continue to grade him C, which is unchanged since March. Completing the trifecta of improved ratings, just over half now say New Jersey is going in the right direction, up four points. Meanwhile, wrong track responses remain steady at 40 percent, while 9 percent are unsure about how the state is doing. Half of voters also believe things have gotten neither better nor worse. After some weakening between November and March, Governor Christie s favorability rating has rebounded to as positive as we ve seen, said Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. Despite recent controversies over plans for Rutgers and less-than-positive economic news, voters are trending toward more positive ratings for the governor and the state. But more improvement will probably require more voters to think things are getting better, not just standing still. Results are from a poll of 1,191 adults with a subsample of 1,065 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from May 31-June 4. The registered voter subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. As Christie ratings improve, gender gap grows Men primarily have boosted Christie s favorability; women remain much less positive. The result is a near doubling of the gender gap since the last poll. In late March, 49 percent of men and 43 percent of women were favorable toward Christie. Now, 56 percent of men feel the same while women have barely budged to 45 percent favorable, resulting in an 11-point gap, up from 6 points just over two months ago. 1

The gap between men and women on the negative side is even larger, said Redlawsk. Only 31 percent of men feel unfavorable, compared to 45 percent of women. The governor has simply not been able to win over women as well as he has men. Some groups now more favorable toward Christie, but divides remain Independent voters have also driven up Christie s favorability ratings. The group s positive feelings have increased by 12 percentage points to 55 percent since March. Only 27 percent of Democrats view the governor favorably, and GOP support has actually declined from 85 percent to 79 percent. This most likely simply reflects a ceiling effect, since the vast majority of Republicans do support Christie, Redlawsk said. Interestingly, while Democrats have shown little change, selfdescribed liberals are actually 10 points more positive, at 29 percent, he added. The poll also finds that both those who are least educated and voters with a college degree became 10 points more favorable, as did voters under 30. Voters at both ends of the income scale have become much more favorable, while those in the middle becoming somewhat less so. The recent intense focus on tax cuts may be one reason high-income voters who would benefit the most see the governor in a better light, said Redlawsk. But lower income voters also have become more positive. This makes sense given that earlier polling we ve done shows low-income voters likely to overestimate how much they would gain from the tax cut proposals. While changes in the governor s favorability rating show great variation across groups, his job performance grade remains relatively steady across the same groups. For example, while independent voters are 12 points more favorable, this increase does not translate into a significant grade improvement. Half of independents give Christie an A or B, up only three points since March. Although Republicans seem to feel somewhat less favorable, they show little change in grades, with 72 percent giving an A or B, compared to 75 percent in March. Most interesting is how lower income voters now 47 percent favorable remain harsher in their grading, with only 38 percent giving an A or B, while 36 percent give a D or F, noted Redlawsk. With this group, favorability does not translate to a good job performance grade. Partisan and gender gap in views of state s direction While most respondents say New Jersey is headed in the right direction, the gender gap apparent in Christie s ratings shows up as well: 58 percent of men say the state is heading in the right direction, and 33 percent disagree. But women are evenly split, with 45 percent positive about New Jersey s direction and 46 percent negative. Fifty-three percent of Democrats believe New Jersey is on the wrong track, while 53 percent of independents and 74 percent of Republicans say the opposite. Voters in either public or private union households are more likely to disapprove of the state s direction: 58 percent of those in public union households and 49 percent in private union households think the state is on the wrong track. However, 56 percent of non union households are positive about where New Jersey is headed. 2

Voters approve state s direction because things are not getting worse Regardless of the state s direction, half the voters think that New Jersey s situation has basically remained unchanged since March. To determine their views, respondents were asked different questions depending on their positive or negative feelings. Among the 51 percent of voters who view the state s direction positively, about half report they are positive because things are changing for the better while 46 percent say New Jersey s direction is positive simply because things are not getting worse. At the same time, among the 40 percent who say the state is on the wrong track, two-thirds say this is simply because things are not getting better, while 30 percent say it is because things are changing for the worse. The follow-up questions tell us that voters feel only somewhat positive, said Redlawsk. Across all voters, only 26 percent think things are actually getting better, while 12 percent say they are getting worse. Most are somewhere in the middle. Beliefs about the state s direction are intertwined with favorability toward Christie, as 47 percent of those favorable toward the governor say New Jersey is changing for the better, compared to just 4 percent of those who are unfavorable. However, this latter group does not necessarily believe New Jersey is changing for the worse, since 61 percent say they see little change for better or worse. Unsurprisingly, partisan divisions follow a similar pattern, with Democrats and independents more likely to believe little is changing in New Jersey (57 percent and 51 percent, respectively), while almost half of Republicans (48 percent) say the state is changing for the better. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE NEXT PAGE 3

Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of June 12, 2012 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters unless otherwise noted. Q. I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. [ROTATE] Governor Chris Christie Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% No Opinion/DK 11% Unwgt N= 1,064 Trend 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 12/10 Adults 10/10 9/10 8/10 2/10 Favorable 46% 47% 49% 49% 45% 44% 46% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% Unfavorable 42% 42% 37% 39% 47% 42% 44% 38% 38% 42% 39% 26% No Opinion/DK 12% 11% 14% 12% 8% 14% 10% 17% 17% 12% 15% 29% Unwgt N= 514 910 752 803 613 769 810 906 879 911 751 881 Registered Voters Trend Graph Registered Voters Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work Favorable 27% 55% 79% 29% 45% 79% 54% 48% 55% 41% Unfavorable 62% 32% 12% 60% 41% 14% 33% 40% 36% 48% No opn/dk 11% 13% 9% 12% 13% 6% 13% 12% 10% 11% Unwgt N= 370 445 239 212 564 265 270 272 276 234 4

Employment Race Age Full Time Part Time Retired Not Empl White Black Hisp 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 49% 44% 56% 48% 56% 31% 37% 39% 49% 51% 56% Unfavorable 41% 44% 33% 38% 35% 55% 48% 40% 41% 40% 33% No opn/dk 10% 12% 12% 13% 10% 14% 16% 21% 10% 9% 11% Unwgt N= 498 91 322 120 811 113 63 98 267 368 317 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union Favorable 47% 44% 47% 60% 56% 45% 32% 46% 55% Unfavorable 39% 43% 43% 33% 31% 45% 60% 43% 33% No opn/dk 14% 12% 10% 7% 13% 10% 8% 11% 12% Unwgt N= 236 299 190 137 498 566 165 60 801 Region Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Favorable 38% 49% 61% 48% 59% Unfavorable 51% 41% 32% 37% 27% No opn/dk 11% 9% 7% 15% 15% Unwgt N= 189 341 124 224 186 Q. Please rate how Chris Christie is handling his job as governor, using a grading scale from A to F. You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F. Trend 6/12 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 A 15% 12% 16% 18% 14% 13% 14% 14% B 31% 31% 27% 28% 30% 25% 32% 24% C 24% 25% 24% 21% 27% 18% 20% 26% D 15% 13% 14% 17% 14% 24% 14% 15% F 14% 17% 18% 13% 14% 19% 21% 19% DK (vol) 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% Unwgt N= 1,063 516 914 752 799 612 390 416 Registered Voters Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work A 5% 14% 33% 8% 10% 32% 18% 12% 18% 12% B 19% 36% 39% 16% 34% 36% 25% 30% 35% 32% C 29% 25% 15% 27% 25% 20% 27% 28% 19% 24% D 22% 13% 6% 20% 18% 3% 15% 13% 14% 17% F 22% 12% 5% 27% 11% 9% 14% 16% 13% 14% DK (vol) 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Unwgt N= 370 444 239 212 563 265 269 272 276 234 5

Employment Race Age Full Time Part Time Retired Not Empl White Black Hisp 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ A 15% 14% 17% 17% 18% 6% 8% 4% 17% 13% 21% Unwgt N= 32% 37% 29% 24% 33% 18% 29% 34% 31% 31% 28% C 24% 21% 20% 30% 22% 30% 26% 25% 25% 27% 18% D 15% 14% 16% 12% 13% 24% 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% F 13% 12% 16% 15% 13% 21% 19% 18% 12% 12% 17% DK (vol) 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% Unwgt N= 498 91 322 119 810 113 63 98 267 368 316 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union A 13% 13% 12% 20% 17% 14% 7% 7% 17% B 25% 28% 32% 41% 35% 27% 17% 29% 34% C 24% 29% 24% 17% 23% 25% 27% 18% 23% D 17% 14% 18% 12% 13% 16% 24% 21% 13% F 19% 14% 11% 10% 12% 16% 24% 21% 12% DK (vol) 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% Unwgt N= 235 298 190 137 498 565 165 60 800 Region Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore A 13% 20% 14% 22% 13% B 32% 37% 31% 31% 32% C 23% 24% 24% 24% 23% D 17% 8% 15% 13% 17% F 14% 11% 15% 7% 14% DK (vol) 2% 0% 1% 2% 2% Unwgt N= 189 341 124 224 186 Q. Would you say the state of New Jersey is currently going in the right direction or has it gone off on the wrong track? Christie Favorability Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Right Direction 51% 81% 20% 30% Wrong Track 40% 13% 73% 49% DK (vol) 9% 7% 8% 22% Unwgt N= 1,064 545 398 109 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 Right Direction 47% 49% 45% 44% 43% Wrong Track 41% 42% 45% 46% 51% DK (vol) 12% 9% 10% 10% 6% Unwgt N= 511 911 744 817 612 6

Registered Voters Trend Graph Registered Voters Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work Right Direction 36% 53% 74% 36% 47% 74% 57% 49% 55% 43% Wrong Track 53% 39% 20% 54% 43% 22% 34% 42% 38% 47% DK (vol) 11% 9% 5% 10% 10% 4% 9% 9% 7% 10% Unwgt N= 370 445 239 212 564 265 270 272 275 235 Employment Race Age Full Time Part Time Retired Not Empl White Black Hisp 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Right Direction 50% 47% 55% 57% 54% 38% 55% 50% 53% 48% 55% Wrong Track 41% 45% 35% 36% 38% 49% 41% 39% 40% 45% 33% DK (vol) 9% 7% 10% 7% 8% 13% 4% 11% 7% 7% 11% Unwgt N= 499 91 322 119 811 113 63 98 267 368 317 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union Right Direction 55% 46% 46% 59% 58% 45% 36% 38% 56% Wrong Track 35% 48% 42% 34% 33% 46% 58% 49% 35% DK (vol) 11% 6% 11% 7% 9% 9% 6% 14% 9% Unwgt N= 236 299 189 137 498 566 165 60 801 Region Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Right Direction 47% 49% 56% 52% 58% Wrong Track 45% 41% 32% 43% 34% DK (vol) 7% 10% 12% 6% 8% Unwgt N= 189 340 124 224 187 7

[IF RIGHT DIRECTION, ASK:] QA. Is New Jersey going in the right direction because things are changing for the better or simply because things are not getting worse? Changing for the better 51% Not getting worse 46% DK (vol) 3% Unwgt N= 552 [IF WRONG TRACK, ASK:] QB. Is New Jersey off on the wrong track because things are changing for the worse or simply because things are not getting better? Not getting better 30% Changing for the worse 67% DK (vol) 4% Unwgt N= 417 COMBINED RESULTS A + B DIRECTION FOLLOW UP Christie Favorability 6/12 Favorable Unfavor able No Opinion Changing for the better 26% 47% 4% 9% Staying the same 50% 41% 61% 54% Changing for the worse 12% 2% 25% 12% DK (vol) 12% 10% 10% 25% Unwgt N= 1,062 543 398 109 Combined Results - Registered Voters Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work Changing for the better 13% 26% 48% 13% 22% 47% 25% 25% 26% 30% Staying the same 57% 51% 38% 53% 54% 41% 58% 49% 52% 42% Changing for the worse 16% 11% 7% 21% 11% 5% 6% 12% 12% 18% DK (vol) 14% 12% 7% 13% 13% 7% 11% 14% 10% 11% Unwgt N= 369 444 239 212 564 263 268 272 275 235 Employment Race Age Full Part Not Time Time Retired Empl White Black Hisp 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Changing for the better 27% 23% 28% 24% 30% 16% 21% 22% 25% 28% 29% Staying the same 50% 52% 46% 57% 47% 63% 65% 49% 56% 48% 45% Changing for the worse 13% 12% 11% 7% 12% 7% 10% 16% 9% 14% 10% DK (vol) 11% 13% 14% 11% 12% 14% 4% 13% 10% 10% 15% Unwgt N= 499 91 320 119 809 113 63 98 267 367 316 8

Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union Changing for the better 25% 22% 25% 38% 32% 21% 19% 19% 29% Staying the same 54% 55% 48% 42% 45% 55% 56% 44% 49% Changing for the worse 9% 14% 12% 13% 11% 12% 18% 20% 10% DK (vol) 13% 9% 15% 7% 11% 12% 7% 16% 12% Unwgt N= 235 298 189 137 496 566 165 60 799 Region Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Changing for the better 19% 24% 35% 28% 31% Staying the same 59% 50% 39% 48% 51% Changing for the worse 14% 12% 11% 15% 7% DK (vol) 8% 14% 15% 9% 12% Unwgt N= 188 340 124 223 187 May 31 June 4, 2012 The was conducted by telephone from May 31 June 4, 2012 with a scientifically selected random sample of 1191 New Jersey adults, including a subsample of 1065 registered voters reported here. Data are weighted to represent known parameters in the New Jersey population, using gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity matching to 2010 US Census Bureau data. All results are reported with these weighted data. This telephone poll included 1040 landline respondents and 151 cell phone respondents, all acquired through random digit dialing. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for 1065 registered voters is +/-2.9 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey voters favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 47.1 and 52.9 percent (50 +/-2.9) had all New Jersey registered voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded by Braun Research Incorporated. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center focused on the study and teaching of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 1,065 New Jersey Registered Voters 37% Democrat 47% Male 13% 18-29 72% White 41% Independent 53% Female 33% 30-49 13% Black 22% Republican 29% 50-64 8% Hispanic 24% 65+ 7% Asian/Other/Multi 9