INR: THE DOMESTIC CURRENCY COULD REMAIN RANGE BOUND. July 14 th, 2016 MARKET OUTLOOK The Indian Rupee could remain range bound on Thursday. Regional assets remain supported amid expectations global central banks will provide further stimulus. This could support the currency. However importers demand could limit appreciation. We expect the INR spot to remain within the trading range of 66.95-67.20 intraday. Investors await cues from WPI data due today. DOMESTIC MARKET The Indian Rupee appreciated against the Dollar, as foreign investors piled into local shares and bonds after better-thanexpected data boosted optimism the country s economy is on the mend. The rupee closed at 67.05 to a dollar, the highest since Jun. 10, compared with 67.18 yesterday. The rupee touched an intraday high of 67.03. India's benchmark BSE Sensex rose to a near 11-month high intraday, but added 0.03%. Other Asian stocks also gained on Wednesday. INTERNATIONAL MARKETS US Dollar The Dollar Index pared sharp losses, remaining near three-month highs, after the release of a closely-watched Federal Reserve survey on Wednesday and ahead of a highly-anticipated interest rate decision from the Bank of England. Euro The Euro was under pressure early in the session as many traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest trade balance data from China. The Euro is trading firm on Thursday morning. Japanese Yen The Yen ended flat against the Dollar on Wednesday after early session weakness which was attributed to profit-taking driven by strong appetite for risk and expectations of a massive amount of stimulus from the Bank of Japan. The Yen depreciated against the Dollar on Thursday morning. UK Sterling The Sterling fell on Wednesday after two days of strong gains, as attention shifted away from the political picture in Britain and towards the prospect that the Bank of England could cut interest rates on Thursday. MARKET RECAP INR Spot Pairs (As on 13 July 2016) Instrument Close 1 Day % % MTD % YoY USDINR 67.05-0.19-0.72 5.62 EURINR 74.47 0.30-0.07 6.47 GBPINR 88.11-0.66-1.94-10.35 JPYINR 64.13 0.25-1.87 24.76 Instrument Global Pairs (As on 14 July 2016 of 8:36 AM IST) Close 1 Day % % MTD % YoY US Dollar Index 96.21-0.01 0.07-0.45 Euro 1.1110 0.1803 0.0405 0.8945 UK Pound 1.3194 0.3385-0.8827-15.6338 Japanese Yen 104.68 0.17 1.34-15.16 Emerging Market Pairs vs. USD (As on 14 July 2016 of 8:36 AM IST) Instrument Close 1 Day % MTD % YoY % Chinese Yuan 6.69 0.02 0.60 7.71 Brazilian Real 3.27 0.07 1.64 4.02 Russian Ruble 63.97 0.01 0.07 13.39 South African Rand 14.46-0.19-1.67 17.32 Indonesian Rupiah 13095.00 Unch -0.89-1.80 Swaps (As on 13 July 2016) Instrument 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year LIBOR 0.67 0.97 1.28 INR Forward Premium 106.8 206.3 405.0 Generic Bond Yields and MIFOR (As on 13 July 2016) Instrument Close 1 Day % % MTD Indian Rupee 1 Year MIFOR 7.35 0.273 1.100 US Dollar 1 Year IRS 0.73-1.754 12.000 United States 10 Year Benchmark 1.47-3.040-1.676 Germany 10 Year Benchmark -0.14 52.688 11.811 India 10 Year Benchmark 7.28-0.722-2.228 FII Flows (As on 13 July 2016) Instruement Daily Monthly $Million Net. $Million Net. Equity 54.38-105.45 490.11 1045.15 Debt 376.26 446.35 491.31-430.72 Total 430.64 340.90 981.42 614.43
CURRENCY OPTIONS MONITOR USDINR JULY Ratio and IV Days to expiry for Near Month 13 Close Previous Put-Call OI Ratio Active months - July 0.73 0.78 Ratio Calls Puts Put-Call Ratio O/I Put-Call Ratio Vol OI Volume LTP Strike LTP OI Volume 1.55-2,323 3 2.27 65.00 0.00 3,602-36.95-255 - 1.72 65.50 0.01 9,423 972 12.64 22.49 6,600 323 1.18 66.00 0.013 83,395 7,264 39.61-314 - 1.00 66.25 0.015 12,436 440 12.67 56.14 7,957 379 0.71 66.50 0.035 100,782 21,277 36.11 29.42 1,424 1,122 0.50 66.75 0.068 51,420 33,009 1.23 1.71 163,561 67,928 0.32 67.00 0.138 201,977 116,290 1.33 1.86 32,853 20,981 0.20 67.25 0.27 43,753 38,944 0.89 0.57 193,433 144,263 0.12 67.50 0.44 171,450 82,466 0.31 0.14 66,201 28,644 0.07 67.75 0.64 20,221 4,023 0.66 0.38 217,262 135,682 0.05 68.00 0.87 144,143 51,010 0.25 0.36 144,143 51,010 0.87 68.25 0.04 36,043 18,128 0.11 0.05 36,043 18,128 0.04 68.50 0.97 4,096 831 52.91 92.36 4,096 831 0.97 68.75 0.02 216,722 76,755 0.23 0.02 216,722 76,755 0.02 69.00 1.35 48,785 1,427 Strike Moneyness Theoretical Market Option Greeks IV Price Price Delta Gamma Vega Theta Rho Call Options 69.00 OTM 0.001 0.015 7.58% 0.0037 0.0175 0.0014-0.0003 0.0001 Put Options 67.00 OTM 0.138 0.130 4.82% -0.3301 0.5718 0.0459-0.0049-0.0079 CURRENCY OPTIONS OI - JULY 300,000 Options OI 250,000 200,000 Put OI 150,000 100,000 50,000 Call OI 0 66.00 66.25 66.50 66.75 67.00 67.25 67.50 67.75 68.00 68.25 68.50 68.75 69.00
USDINR SPOT - DAILY 2/29/2016-7/20/2016 (GMT) Open 67.0900 High 67.2150 Low 67.0300 Last 67.0500 Net -0.1300 % (-0.19%) SMA 67.4600 Price 68 67.4600 67.5 67.0500 66.5 RSI 43.673 Value 60 43.673 30 29 08 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 Source: Thomson Reuters Oscillators and Statistics Recommendations INR Spot Stochastics Close S1 S2 R1 R2 July Contract USD Sideways 67.02 66.88 66.76 67.17 67.34 Remain in Range of 66.85 to 67.40 EUR Bullish 74.47 74.09 73.83 74.54 74.73 Buy @ 74.50 Target 75.00 SL 74.20 GBP Bullish 88.11 87.53 86.97 89.08 90.08 Buy @ 89.30 Target 89.85 SL 89.00 JPY Bullish 64.13 63.77 63.42 64.51 64.90 Buy @ 64.00 Target 64.55 SL 63.70 US DOLLAR INDEX - DAILY Cndl,.DXY Date 7/14/2016 Open 96.266 High 96.320 Low 96.170 Last 96.180 Net -0.036 % (-0.04%) SMA,.DXY Date 7/14/2016 SMA 96.161 Source: Thomson Reuters Oscillators and Statistics International Spot Stochastics Close S1 S2 R1 R2 Dollar Index Bullish 96.21 96.17 96.13 96.28 96.36 EUR Bullish 1.1125 1.1089 1.1070 1.1121 1.1134 GBP Bullish 1.3426 1.3129 1.3068 1.3223 1.3256 JPY Bullish 102.83 104.18 103.72 104.90 105.16 1/14/2016-7/25/2016 (NYC) Price USD 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 99 98.5 98 97.5 97 96.5 96.180 96 96.161 95.5 95 94.5 94 93.5 93 92.5 92
TODAY S EVENTS (JULY 14, 2016) Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous Importance 7:00 AUD Employment Change (Jun) 7.9K 10.0K 19.2K High 7:00 AUD Full Employment Change (Jun) 38.4K 2.5K Medium 7:00 AUD Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.80% 5.80% 5.70% Medium 12:00 INR WPI Inflation (YoY) (Jun) 1.19% 0.79% High 12:45 CHF PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.40% Medium 16:30 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 0.25% 0.50% High 16:30 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes High 18:00 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.10% 0.30% Medium 18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 265K 254K High 18:00 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.30% 0.40% High 18:00 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.20% 0.30% Medium 18:30 RUB Central Bank reserves (USD) 393.7B Medium 20:45 USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks Medium 22:45 USD FOMC Member George Speaks Medium Red data in Actual Indicates negative for currency Source: Investing.com
General Disclaimers As part of regulatory requirement you are required to update your following KYC details with us: Correspondence Address Mobile Number Email Id Annual Income To update above details login to your online trading account or send Email/Letter along with the Pan Card copy or visit any of our branches. Kindly quote your client code and PAN while sending the aforesaid KYC update. General Disclaimers: This document is meant for the customers of Reliance Securities Limited only. In case you are a non resident, please note that you need to comply with the relevant local laws of the country of your residence, before investing. Mutual Funds and securities investments are subject to market risks, and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the Scheme will be achieved. As with any investment in securities, the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Units issued by Mutual Fund Schemes can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting the securities market. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of the mutual fund schemes will be achieved. The investments may not be suited to all categories of investors. Please read the Scheme Information Document and Statement of Additional Information of the respective mutual fund carefully before investing. The views herein constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the readers. This information is meant for general reading purpose only and is not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. This document has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Reliance Securities Limited (RSL) or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information. Due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given fair and reasonable. No action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, and the information is not intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument. Recipients of this information should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investments. None of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information contained in this material. RSL, the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL, associate companies, affiliates, and representatives including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) / specific economic sectors / mutual funds, if mentioned herein. Risks: Trading and investment in securities are subject market risks. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of trading / investment in securities will be achieved. The trades/ investments referred to herein may not be suitable to all categories of traders/investors. The names of securities mentioned herein do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns. The value securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro and macro factors and forces affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including but not limited to counter party risk, market risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing of derivatives. Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by RSL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. RSL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to RSL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/opinions in respect of the securities and their respective issuers. Neither RSL nor the research analysts did have any known direct /indirect conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any specific security on which views/opinions have been made, during the preparation of this Report. Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying, distribution of this Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL. Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of. ISO 9001:2008: Reliance Securities Limited holds a certificate issued by BSI Management System India Pvt. Ltd to the effect that it operates a Quality Management System that complies with the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 for providing equity & equity derivative trading services through online trading system. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk. Please read the risk disclosure document before investing. Reliance Securities is a distributor for MF, IPO, Bonds, NCDs and Corporate FDs. Registered Office: Reliance Securities Limited, 11th Floor, R-Tech IT Park, Western Express Highway, Goregaon (East), Mumbai - 400063. Tel: +91 22 3320 1212, CIN: U65990MH2005PLC154052. (SEBI registration No. INH000002384; NSE - INB / INF / INE 231234833; BSE - INB / INF / INE 011234839; AMFI ARN No.29889; CDSL - IN-DP-CDSL-357-2006; NSDL -IN-DP-NSDL-363-2013).