Public Disclsure Authrized Public Disclsure Authrized Public Disclsure Authrized Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia Anita M. Schwarz Lead Ecnmist Scial Prtectin and Labr Glbal Practice d
The Wrld is Aging Percentage f Elderly Ppulatin, 2015 Percentage f Elderly Ppulatin, 2050 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 Wrld Africa Asia Latin Am Nrth Am Eurpe 0 Wrld Africa Asia Latin Am Nrth Am Eurpe 60-64 65-79 80+ 60-64 65-79 80+ Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 2
Even in Africa, the Number f Elderly Will be Grwing 250000 Numbers f Elderly in Africa, 2015 and 2050 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2015 2050 60-64 65-79 80+ Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 3
Wrking Age Ppulatin Grwing Much Slwer Than Retiree Ppulatin 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Wrld Africa Asia Latin Am Nrth Am Eurpe WAP 2050/2015 65+ 2050/2015 Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 4
Impact n Pensin Systems Wrking Age Ppulatin Cntributrs Revenues 65+ Pp Pensiners Expenditures When Expenditures rise faster than Revenues, pensin systems begin t get in truble Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 5
Histry f Eurpean Pensin Systems Pensin systems in Eurpe started ff mdestly Bismarckian system in Germany 1889 paid benefits equal t 18% f average wage t wrkers wh reached the age f 70 and had lst 1/3 f wrking capacity Peple expected t wrk until they died, but acknwledgment that wrking capacity might be reduced Systems were flush with revenues as labr frce grew and cverage expanded Went frm supplementing retirement incme t prviding a pverty level benefit at a specific age Increased benefit t sme percentage f wn earnings Intrduced cncept that pensiners shuld share in the grwth f the ecnmy Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 6
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Expected Years in Retirement 1957 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 When cntributrs were grwing, genersity f the systems grew Average Pensin Cmpared t Average Wage 60% Netherlands 25 50% 20 40% 30% 15 20% 10 5 0 63 57 59 71 64 63 67 63 65 Belgium Spain Sweden 60% 50% 40% Hungary Effective Retirement Ages 1970 1990 2009 30% 20% Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 7
Nw the Cuntries are Stuck Initially culd raise cntributin rates At sme pint, cst f labr becmes t high and ecnmy starts lsing jbs t ther cuntries and t infrmal sectr Have t think abut mre sustainable benefits Current generatins f elderly Thse already wrking Thse beginning wrk Extra difficult when there are large chrts f retirees Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 8
Lessns fr Yunger Cuntries Yu t will get ld ne day Keep benefits mdest In the lng run, ecnmies cannt affrd t pay benefits higher than 40-50% f average wage fr a full career (40-50 years) D nt use pensin system as a way f giving away gdies Keep cntributin rates lw if pssible Tendency t think that accumulatin f reserves will help might, but they tend t disappear, even in best gverned cuntries Keep plicy reserve can raise cntributin rates later if needed Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 9
Italy France Greece Spain Malta Belgium Slvenia Cyprus Luxemburg Denmark Prtugal Sweden United Kingdm Austria Germany Finland Netherlands Ireland Nrway Cratia Latvia Armenia Pland Estnia Russia Albania Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Lithuania Rmania Slvakia Serbia BH Federatin Belarus Republika Srpska Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Turkey Prjected Pensin Spending in 2060 Relative t Tday 20.0% Average Spending in 2010 9.5% f GDP 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2010 2060 0.0% High Incme Generus Spenders High Incme Mderate Spenders Lwer Spending Transitin Cuntries High Spending Transitin Cuntries Yung cuntries Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 10
What Can Be Dne? Priritize spending: All elderly will need t be prvided enugh t survive Disabled will als need t be prvided means t survive Wuld like t prvide thse wh cntribute smething mre than pverty level benefits Als need t prvide smething fr survivrs Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 11
France Slvenia Greece Belgium Cyprus Italy Spain Malta Prtugal Ireland Nrway United Kingdm Denmark Sweden Finland Iceland Germany Netherlands Austria Albania Gergia Russian Federatin Mldva Armenia Belarus Lithuania Bulgaria Hungary Estnia Czech Republic Latvia Slvakia Rmania Pland Cratia FBIH Republika Srpska Serbia Tajikistan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Republic Ksv Turkey Pensin spending, percent GDP An Example f Priritizing With Retirement Age at 65 20% 18% basic t all ld disabled tp-up t cvered survivr 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% HIGS HIMS LSTC HSTC YC Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 12
Priritizatin with Retirement Age Where Life Expectancy is 15 Years Pensin spending, percent GDP France Slvenia Cyprus Greece Belgium Spain Italy Malta Prtugal Ireland United Kingdm Nrway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria Albania Russian Federatin Slvakia Gergia Armenia Mldva Czech Rep. Estnia Lithuania Belarus Latvia Hungary Bulgaria Rmania Pland Cratia FBIH Republika Srpska Serbia Tajikistan Ksv Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Republic Turkey 16% Basic t all ld disability Tp-up t cvered Survivr 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% HIGS HIMS LSTC HSTC YC Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 13
Bttm Line: It is Pssible t Prvide Old Age Security with Challenging Demgraphics Will need sme changes in expectatins Future may be mre like past in ne f tw ways: Pensins given when peple are t ld t wrk Pensins nly guarantee pverty preventin Peple will als have t save fr their wn retirement Gvernment prgrams will nt be sufficient t prvide peple the retirement incme they may want Labr markets will als need t adapt t lder wrkers Allw mre flexibility (part-time wrk, cmbine wrk and retirement, mving away frm wages based strictly n senirity) Wrkplace adaptatins t accmmdate lder wrkers Lifelng learning with training prgrams designed fr lder brains Pensins and Aging: Lessns frm Eurpe and Central Asia 14