Market Commentary Sector Wise Performance Indices Last Traded % Change NIFTY IT 15591.65-2.99 NIFTY BANK 24443.45-10.01 NIFTY REALTY 208.8-21.55 NIFTY INFRA 2845.4-12.30 INDIA VIX 19.7325 42.55 NIFTY ENERGY 13278-15.92 NIFTY FMCG 27873.8-10.05 NIFTY PHARMA 9547.35-10.38 NIFTY PSU BANK 2656-14.22 NIFTY AUTO 8915.1-17.66 NIFTY MEDIA 2371.4-12.50 NIFTY METAL 3444.65-7.24 NIFTY COMMODITIES 3359.45-12.33 NIFTY CONSUMPTION 4483.3-12.90 TOP WEEKLY GAINERS YESBANK IBULHSGFIN TOP WEEKLY LOSERS HPCL BPCL Sensex opened the week at 36274, made a high of 36616, low of 34202 and closed the week at 34376. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 1851 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10930, made a high of 11035, low of 10261 and closed the week at 10316. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 614 points. Options data for October series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 11000 followed by 11500CE whereas the highest OI build-up in PUT is now at the strike of 10500 followed by 10700 PE. Nifty Spot closes at 10316 but the highest OI in Put is still at 10500 and 10700 which indicate the possibility of a bounce in index.11000 would act as a major resistance. NIFTY PE-24.95. VIX is at 19.7325, if it moves above 20, it would be indicate possibility of more downside. VIX if moved below 17 there may be pull back rally in midcap also. Presently market is expected to trade in a wide range. PCR is now at 1.11come down from 1.35. Below 1020 it will be a comfortable level for bulls to enter. Market is likely to get a pull back rally from current level. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy statement is one of the most tracked events in the financial world. With a weakening Rupee and both core and retail inflation heading upwards, a rate hike in key interest rates was widely expected. However, the RBI surprised market participants as it held key interest rates. The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank kept the repo rate unchanged at to 6.5% in its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review of 2018-19. USFDA alerts on Indian pharma companies have increased over the past few years. Regulators used to visit the plants every two years. Now they come every eight months. Increasing inspections have led to a total of 41 import alerts in the past eight years - 33 of them (80%) in just the last four years (2013-16). This clearly signifies increased USFDA scrutiny on Indian pharma firms. If that wasn't enough, increasing pricing pressure in the generics segment has dented realizations. Downgrade of the credit rating of IL&FS paper to D (default) from AAA has unnerved the money markets and shaken the confidence of investors in debt paper from NBFCs. This has led to a spike in yields and the ability of NBFCs to raise shortterm funding at a reasonable rate becomes questionable USDINR rallied to 74.475 as a confirmation to an inverted hammer type candle on weekly chart. This indicates a strong support around 72.60 and major trend is expected to be bullish as long as 72.60 is not breached. IN daily chart it has continuous three doji candles and any negative closing would create an evening star type pattern. 73-73.60 is another support zone. Sustaining above 74.20 would cause upside momentum to move towards 750-76$. The strength in USDINR chart is supported by good volumes. Brent Crude (84.00$) after making 86.74 high has two continuous red candles which has prepared a head and shoulder pattern in hourly chart. It will resume the uptrend only after a closing above 85.50$. The pattern suggests the downside capacity would be 81. The previous breakout level around 79 would act as a crucial support. Any closing below 79$ would further insert weakness. Above 85.50 decisive closing, it may again move towards 87-88$. Conclusively the range of Brent crude would be 81 to 85.50. HINDALCO ICICIBANK WIPRO IOC ONGC RELIANCE 1
Nifty Weekly Outlook Outlook: Nifty is expected to trade initially in the range 11230 to 11430 in the coming week. Resistance 10660.Support 10100 Nifty (11316) has six weeks straight fall where the last weeks candle was the largest one with highest volumes. The Oscillators has been moved in highly over sold zone in weekly as well as daily chart. Nifty is expected to trade in the range 10230 to 10430, but if crosses 10430 the pull back may move towards 10500 and 10640-660. Major trend for short to medium term turned negative after breaching the support at 10660. Now 200 SMA would act as a crucial resistance around 10770-10800. If moved below 10230, the index may show more weakness and tend to move towards 10100 and 10000. Next key support level seems at 9888 or 9800 which is 50% retracement level of rally since December 2016. Presently the index is around 38.2% retracement level. Also 500 SMA is around 9888. 50 Weeks moving average is now a resistance at 10710. Conclusively, major trend of the market is down, any bounce back from current level would face difficulty in sustaining at higher levels. Nifty Chart (Weekly):10316 High 11036 Low 10262 Resistance Levels - R1 10430 - R2 10500 - R3 10660 -R4 10770 Support Levels - S1 11230 - S2 10100 - S3 10000 -S4 9888 NIFTY - BANK Outlook Nifty Bank (24443) has continuous five weeks fall with increasing volume. The index has been moved in highly over sold territory. It is near 100 weeks moving average and a trend line support 23940. The possibility of a dead cat bounce from this level could not be ignoring from this level. And the bounce may take the index towards 25000 and maximum 25500. Inability to hold the immediate support 25250 and 23940 would drag the index to 23500 and 23000. Immediate resistance will be at 23850 and crossing of it would give a clue of further upside. Conclusively 24250 and then 23940 should be watched closely. 2
Bank Nifty Chart (Weekly): 24443 High 25470 Low 24251 Resistance Levels - R1 24800 - R2 25000 - R3 25150 - R4 25550 Support Levels - S1 24250 - S2 23940 - S3 23600 - S3 23000 NIFTY Midcap (16300) Nifty MIDCAP (16300) had a severe breakdown in weekly chart. In the continuous 5 weeks fall it has breached 50 as well as 199 weeks moving averages and now seems moving towards 200 weeks moving average around 15800-15790. The neckline resistance of the pattern is around 18200, and since the weekly as well as daily chart has been moved in highly over sold territory, there may be a bounce back towards this level. 1000SMA at 15580 is another strong support. 17300 will be an intermediate resistance in case of any pull back rally. 500 SMA is around 18100. Conclusively, the midcap index seems moving towards 15580 but there may be a pull back up to 17300 or 18000-18200. 3
STOCK Picks Apollo Hospital (1057) Apollohospital (1057) has confirmed a volatile doji on weekly chart and reversed from the neckline support after completing the retracement. It has capacity to retest 1142 and 1200. Cadilahc(378) Cadilahc(378) has a head and shoulder pattern breakdown and the neckline is at 386. Resistance is 405. The downside capacity seems 340-350. 4
Hindalco (241) Hindalco(241) closed with a bullish engulfing candle on weekly chart and the inverse head and shoulder pattern in intact. Sustaining above 248 would be a breakout. The bullish pattern is intact as long as 224 is not breached. The upside potential would be 277-285. Disclaimer Source: Sumpoorna Research, NSE, BSE, SEBI, and other publically available documents. Document prepared by: Nitesh Aggarwala & Sunil Koul For further information, please contact: Sumpoorna Global Markets & Economics Research Phone: +91 120 4505200 email: globalresearch@sumpoorna.com url: www.sumpoornaonline.com This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the security/ instrument referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Sumpoorna Portfolio Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (collectively referred to as Sumpoorna ) may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a investment vehicle's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a instrument's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's/ investment vehicles fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Sumpoorna or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Sumpoorna has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Sumpoorna endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Neither Sumpoorna, its directors, employees nor its affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please contact Sumpoorna for more information on investment decisions. Also, please refer to the latest update on respective investment instruments for the disclosure status in respect of those particular investment instruments. Sumpoorna and its affiliates and clients may have investment positions in the investment vehicles recommended in this report. 5