FX Viewpoint Wednesday, October 12, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 The net capital inflow situation for the region in aggregate continues to deteriorate on a short term horizon. Near term prospects for INR and IDR have weakened on the back of waning net inflow momentum. PHP weakness looking overdone on a short term horizon with net outflows continuing to moderate. The net inflow environment for KRW is perceived to be relatively stable with the currency deemed fairly valued within this metric. Net flows for the TWD remain very sparse, leaving the unit vulnerable to externally induced swings. Investments & Structured Product Tel: 69-1886 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 69-1899 Treasury Research & Strategy Tel: 3-87 Emmanuel Ng + 3 3 ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com
USD-TWD USD-TWD USD-KRW USD-KRW 12 October 216 FX Viewpoint 1 8 16 18 125 6 11 112 12 4 114 115 2-2 116 118 12 122 11 15-4 124 May-215 Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 Apr-216 Jul-216 Oct-216 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW 1-5 5 1 15 2 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS SOUTH KOREA 3 1 12 25 14 2 16 18 15 11 1 112 114 5 116 118 12-5 122-1 124 6-Mar-12 11-Dec-12 17-Sep-13 24-Jun-14 -Mar-15 5-Jan-16 11-Oct-16 NFB: Bond & Equity:RS6 USD-KRW (RHS) 6 5 4 3. 3.5. 3 2.5 125 12 115 11 15 1-1 1 2 3 Bond & Eq RS 6D 1-1 -2-3 -4..5..5. May-215 Sep-215 Dec-215 Mar-216 Jul-216 Oct-216 NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD 3-1 -6-2 2 6 NFB: 2D RS 12 1 TWD vs Net foreign equity interest..5 8 6 4 2 3. 3.5..5..5 3-2 -4..5-6. 6-Dec-13 23-Aug-14 1-May-15 25-Jan-16 11-Oct-16 6-day RS USD-TWD -1-5 5 1 15 TSEC net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 2
USD-IDR USD-IDR USD-INR USD-INR 12 October 216 FX Viewpoint 5 4 INDIA 63. 63.5 7 India 64. 3 64.5 2. 1.5 6 66. 66.5 55-1 67. -2 67.5 68. 5-3 -4 68.5 69. Sep-215 Dec-215 Mar-216 Jul-216 Oct-216 NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D USD-INR -1-5 5 1 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS 2 15 1 INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest 58 59 6 61 7 India 62 5 63 6 64 55-5 66-1 67 5 68-15 69 Jan-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 RS6 USD-INR -2-1 1 2 SEBI net bond & eq RS6 5 4 3 1 13 1 15 14 2 1-1 -2-3 1 1 138 14 1 1 1 13 12 11 1 9-4 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 1 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Bond & Equity:2D RS USD-IDR 95 1 15 11 115 12 125 13 1 14 1 15 18-Sep-13 25-Jun-14 1-Apr-15 6-Jan-16 12-Oct-16 Bond & Equity: 6D RS USD-IDR 8-7 -4-1 2 5 Bond & Equity: 2D RS 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8-1 -5 5 1 Net foreign bond & eq RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 3
USD-PHP USD-PHP USD-THB USD-THB 12 October 216 FX Viewpoint 25 2 15 1 5-5..5..5..5..5. 3-1.5-15. Aug-215 Jan-216 May-216 Oct-216 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB -3-1 1 3 5 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 5 4 3 3 2 1-1 3-2 -3 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 15 1 5-5 -1 17-Sep-13 24-Jun-14 -Mar-15 5-Jan-16 11-Oct-16 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 USD-THB..5..5..5..5..5 49. Jun-215 Aug-215 Oct-215 Jan-216 Mar-216 May-216 Aug-216 Oct-216 NFB: RS2 USD-PHP PHP vs Net foreign equity interest 4-4 -2 2 4 6 8 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 49 4-15 -1-5 5 1 15 NFB: RS2 49-15 49 17-Sep-13 24-Jun-14 -Mar-15 5-Jan-16 11-Oct-16 USD-PHP NFB: RS 6 4-2 -1 1 2 Net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 4
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