The Malaysian Economy

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Malaysian Economy"

Transcription

1 The Malaysian Economy Prospects and critical issues in Presentation for ISIS PRAXIS Seminar Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist March 3 rd, 2011

2 In a nutshell US economy is emitting more positive signs, judging by leading indicators in the financial market (yield gaps and corporate-bond spread). Unemployment dropped the most in two months since 1958 in January, but labour market remains the key concern among policymakers. European countries are still struggling with the sovereign debt crisis. Capacity utilisation remains below the long-term average. Asian economies remain strong, fueled by the twin engines of China and India. World growth was revised upwards by the IMF. Most notable improvement was the outlook of the US economy. Malaysia s growth momentum is decelerating as the base effect wanes and the external sector is affected by slowing global demand. Among the important issues for the Malaysian economy are: (1) effect of higher prices on consumers (2) effect of possible monetary tightening measures, if policymakers react (3) effect of a possible sudden reversal in capital flows, and (4) effect of surging oil prices on government finances. 2

3 US light at the end of the tunnel? Yield gap of 2-10 US Treasuries (UST) jumped to 290 basis points (bps) in February 2011, the most since Feb 2010; 30-year yield at 4.74%, the highest since April Average gap between was 240 bps, higher than the average between prior to the boom. Corporate bond spread shrank, suggesting that perception of risk has declined for both high- and low-rated corporate bonds yield gap of UST Corporate bond spread Ave: 210 bps Ave: 240 bps Aaa Baa Lehman Crisis 1 Feb b 99 Aug g 99 Feb b 00 Aug g 00 Feb b 01 Aug g 01 Feb b 02 Aug g 02 Feb b UST 2 yr average Source: Bloomberg Aug g 03 Feb b 04 Aug g 04 Feb b 05 Aug g 05 Feb b 06 Aug g 06 Feb b 07 Aug g 07 Feb b 08 Aug g 08 Feb b 09 Aug g 09 Feb b 10 Aug g Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 3

4 G3 economies European problems Astronomical levels of budget deficits and sovereign debts in European countries prevent a smooth recovery of advanced economies. Capacity utilisation (CAPU) rates remained well below historical average, suggesting that weak labour market will persist inthe near term. Government debt-to-gdp ratio (%) CAPU rates (%) 140 US Ireland Greece Portugal Spain UK E Average for eurozone : 81% US Average for US : 77% 0 Y81 Y85 Y89 Y93 Y97 Y01 Y05 Y Sources: IMF & Bloomberg 4

5 Global economic outlook by the IMF Overall growth forecast was revised upward in January 2011, with the US having been upgraded the most among G3 economies (+0.7 percentage points). Prospects of Asian economies remain encouraging as the twin growth engines of China and India continue to be strong. GDP forecasts by the IMF Source: IMF 5

6 Back home growth is also moderating Followingasharprecoveryin2010,Malaysianeconomicgrowthmoderated in the last three quarters as weaker global demand weighed on its external sector. Leading indicators are pointing to softer growth in the next few quarters. Malaysia s quarterly GDP growth KLCI (4-mth lead) and GDP growth (yoy%) Recessions GDP yoy % KLCI yoy % Jun n 00 Dec c 00 Jun n 01 Dec c 01 Jun n 02 Dec c 02 Jun n 03 Dec c 03 Jun n 04 Dec c 04 Jun n 05 Dec c 05 Jun n 06 Dec c 06 Jun n 07 Dec c 07 Jun n 08 Dec c 08 Jun n 09 Dec c 09 Jun n 10 Dec c 10 GDP yoy (%) KLCI yoy (%) GDP yoy (%) 6 Source: CEIC

7 Back home growth is also moderating Major reason for the expected slower growth in 2011 is the weaker external trade (smaller net exports) due to waning global demand particularly for E&E products. Global chip sales are expected to grow by 6.0% and 3.4% in 2011 and 2012, down from the estimated 32.8% in Global chip sales and Malaysia ss E&E exports IPI and OECD composite leading indicators 80% Global chip sales growth (y o y%) E&E exports growth (y o y%) 60% BTB ratio (RHS) 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% % 15.0% 10.0% 0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 60% 0.00 Jan 01 Jun 02 Nov 03 Apr 05 Sep 06 Feb 08 Jul 09 Dec 10 IPI yoy% OECD total yoy% 7 Source: SIA & CEIC

8 Issue 1 How do consumers react to higher prices? Although the consumer price index (CPI) remained below 3%, higher pump prices will dampen consumers spending habits, putting pressure on private consumption, as evidenced by the fall in the retail trade index (RTI). Over the years, actual private consumption has had a strong correlation with the consumer sentiment index (CSI), with a two-quarter lag. Consumers reaction to hikes in pump prices CSI normally leads actual private spending by 2 quarters CSI RTI Source: CEIC 8 CSI (index) 2Qtr lag Nom pvt consumption (%)

9 Issue 1 How do consumers react to higher prices? Food prices increased at exponential rates since 2005, and the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) predicted that consumerswillcontinuetopaymoreforfoodaspriceincreasesarenot likely to slow in the near future. Malaysia s trade deficit in foodstuff has risen over the years. Global wheat, rice and F&B price indices (2005 = 100) Malaysia s trade in foodstuff Wheat Rice F&B Price Index 14.0 Trade deficit. (% of GDP) Trade deficit. (RM Bn) LHS % 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% % 1.2% % 1.0% 0.9% 0 Y80 Y82 Y84 Y86 Y88 Y90 Y92 Y94 Y96 Y98 Y00 Y02 Y04 Y06 Y08 Y Y95 Y96 Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 0.8% 9 Sources: UN and CEIC

10 Issue 2 How s monetary policy responding to higher prices? Capacity utilisation (CAPU) in domestic and export-oriented industries have surged beyond their long-term averages, suggesting higher risk of demandpull factors emerging. The overnight policy rate (OPR) normally reacts to rising CAPU to prevent the second-round effect. CAPU domestic and export-oriented industries (%) CAPU and OPR (%) Mar 99 Oct 99 May 00 Dec 00 Jul 01 Feb 02 Sep 02 Apr 03 Nov 03 Jun 04 Jan 05 Aug 05 Mar 06 Oct 06 May 07 Dec 07 Jul 08 CAPU (Export oriented) % CAPU (Dom. oriented) % Source: CEIC Feb 09 Sep 09 Apr 10 Nov CAPU OPR Apr 04 Jun 06 Aug 08 Oct

11 Issue 2 How s monetary policy responding to higher prices? The growth in Malaysia s house price index is currently above 1 standard deviation (SD) from the historical mean, even though there is no real property bubble across the board. 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% The growth in payroll and employment in the manufacturing sector has slightly moderated after recording sharp increases in the past one year. Malaysia s house price index Ave = 3.6% +1 SD = 5.4% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% Malaysia s manufacturing payroll and employment (yoy%) y Payroll Employment 1.0% 10.0% 1 SD = 1.8% 0.0% 15.0% Jan 08 Jun 08 Nov 08 Apr 09 Sep 09 Feb 10 Jul 10 Dec 10 Source: CEIC 11

12 Issue 3 - inflows, inflows Massive capital inflows are evidenced by the surge in the local stock and bond markets. Malaysia s inflows have been largely characterised by portfolios investments. Experience suggests that large amount of outflows can drastically affect both the financial market and the real economy. Portfolio flows (RM Million) 30.0 Net portfolio flows (LHS) MGS holdings by 30.0 foreigners % of outstanding Q Q % 10.0% 25.0% 5.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.0% Portfolio flows - historical experience 7.0% 7.4% 2.2% 29% 2.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.6% 2.7% 11.1% Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10* Sources: CEIC & MARC Economic Research 12

13 Issue 3 - inflows, inflows Amount of capital inflows into Asia (including Malaysia) is exerting upward pressure on Asian currencies, including the ringgit. Malaysia s real effective exchange rate (REER) is currently above 1SD from its mean. Any sudden reversal in flows will affect the ringgit s performance. Currency movement (Y-T-D%) Malaysia s REER MYR THB TWD SGD PHP IDR CNY INR KRW HKD Source: Bloomberg Feb-98 Oct-99 Jun-01 Feb-03 Oct-04 Jun-06 Feb-08 Oct-09 REER Ave 13

14 Issue 4 government finances The fiscal and current-account (CA) deficit matrix indicates that Malaysia is in a less-favourable quadrant and is comparable to India and Pakistan. However, its CA position is more favourable than many Asian countries. Fiscal position and CA balance matrix CA % GDP Malaysia Philippines Indonesia India Pakistan Viet Nam Bahrain Thailand Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Most favourable quadrant U.A.E Kuwait 15.0 Most unfavourable quadrant Fiscal bal % GDP Source: CEIC 14

15 Thailand Korea Malaysia Issue 4 government finances Revenues are not a problem for Malaysia as the country s tax-to-gdp ratio is one of the highest in the region. However, operating expenditure (emoluments, subsidies, supply & services) has expanded over the years. China Philippines Hong Kong Singapore Indonesia India Tax-to-GDP ratio (%) % 0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 0% 10.0% 0.0% Malaysia s operating and development expenditure as a % of total expenditure Operating expenditure Developmentexpenditure Y70 Y73 Y76 Y79 Y82 Y85 Y88 Y91 Y94 Y97 Y00 Y03 Y06 Y09 Source: CEIC 15

16 Issue 4 government finances The rise in oil prices will result in higher revenues, but at the same time would increase the government s fuel-subsidy program. Obviously, the government has to strike a balance between restoring the budget balance and safekeeping the rakyat s welfare. Government revenue vs. prices of Tapis crude Total subsidy vs. prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Forecasts WTI crude (USD per barrel) Government revenue (RM Bn) Tapis crude USD per barrel (RHS) Y98Y99Y00Y01Y02Y03Y04Y05Y06Y07Y08Y09Y10 Sources: IMF & CEIC Subsidy in RM bn (LHS) Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11F Y12F

17 Thank You Copyright 2011 The material contained in this presentation may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the consent of Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad ( MARC ). The views expressed in this presentation should be construed solely as statements of opinion and not statements of fact. MARC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the material and comments made during the presentation and accepts no liability arising from any use of this presentation or its contents. This presentation ti is not to be relied upon in substitution of the exercise of independent judgement. 17

2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook

2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook 211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer

More information

EconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015

EconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015 EconWatch 21 August 2015 Patricia Oh Swee Ling patricia-oh@ambankgroup.com 603-2036 2240 Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US Investment Highlights Qualms of currency

More information

Comparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%)

Comparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%) The Impact Of GST It took 1 years from when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was first mooted in Malaysia to its implementation on April 1,1. The move was announced at Budget 1 to replace the existing

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

Monthly Outlook. June Summary

Monthly Outlook. June Summary Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the

More information

Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017

Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017 Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017 Facts Total exports in 2017 grew by 18.9% (2016: 1.2%) to RM935.4

More information

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17 Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)

More information

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811)

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) wider Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) Vol.: ER/009/2018 Capital Flows, Renminbi & the Ringgit Trend Economic Research Led By: Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist +603 2717 2936 zahidi@marc.com.my

More information

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, October 12, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, October 12, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update FX Viewpoint Wednesday, October 12, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 The net capital inflow

More information

L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study

L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute OT 18.52 Macroeconomic Diagnostics February 26 March 2, 2018 Presenter Stephan Danninger This training material

More information

FX Viewpoint. Tuesday, January 10, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

FX Viewpoint. Tuesday, January 10, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update FX Viewpoint Tuesday, January 1, 217 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update The net portfolio flow situation has improved in recent weeks (including in the opening week of this year). If the broad dollar

More information

Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates

Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Group Research 11 October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com

More information

Source: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Source: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note Indonesia: Portfolio Capital Flows Ahead Of Fed s 18 Rate Outlook Tuesday, 1 November

More information

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by

More information

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 20-Oct-16

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 20-Oct-16 Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Oct- ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)

More information

PPI Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture

PPI Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture 30 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW February 2018 Producer Price Index Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture Producer prices continued to fall for two consecutive months.

More information

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5

More information

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, September 28, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, September 28, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update FX Viewpoint Wednesday, September, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 The net capital inflow

More information

FX Viewpoint. Tuesday, January 17, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

FX Viewpoint. Tuesday, January 17, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update FX Viewpoint Tuesday, January 17, 217 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update The net portfolio inflow environment in Asia remains largely supportive and should bolster the regional currencies if the

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund. 2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil

More information

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, September 14, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, September 14, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update FX Viewpoint Wednesday, September 14, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 Risk of the short

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y

More information

Asia Bond Monitor March 2015

Asia Bond Monitor March 2015 June 1 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May from 1.8% y-o-y in April, mainly due

More information

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

More information

PPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price

PPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price 31 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW June 2018 Producer Price Index Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price grew for the first time in 2018. Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in

More information

Key developments and outlook

Key developments and outlook 1/22 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

4Q2013 GDP better than expected

4Q2013 GDP better than expected Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my 4Q2013 GDP better than expected GDP above expectation Malaysia s GDP scorecard for 4Q2013 released on Wednesday saw the

More information

GDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook

GDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook 5 July 2016 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW Jun 2016 GDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook Exports were down by 0.9%yoy in May, while trade balance moderated to RM3.2 billion. This was largely due to

More information

Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3%

Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% 12 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2018 Industrial Production Index Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% IPI meets market estimates. Malaysia s industrial production expands by 3%yoy

More information

(0.7) (17.0) (11.0) (21.7) (20.0) (21.2) 5.5 (14.7) (17.3) (7.6) (14.5) (19.2) 1Y Rtn (12/31/10-12/30/11)

(0.7) (17.0) (11.0) (21.7) (20.0) (21.2) 5.5 (14.7) (17.3) (7.6) (14.5) (19.2) 1Y Rtn (12/31/10-12/30/11) Research Division Monthly Unit Trust Review AMB Dec 2011:The MUTI continues expansion albeit slumps in the stock markets TABLE 1: MAJOR & REGIONAL INDICES AS AT 30 DECEMBER 2011 Index Points % MOM % YOY

More information

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to

More information

Recent Asia experiences with capital flows

Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Rob Subbaraman, Chief Economist Asia Ex-Japan December 2007 Asia ex-japan's total balance of payments % of GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

More information

Public Select Mixed Asset Growth Fund (PSMAGF) Breakdown of Unitholdings of PSMAGF as at 30 April 2018

Public Select Mixed Asset Growth Fund (PSMAGF) Breakdown of Unitholdings of PSMAGF as at 30 April 2018 Fund Information Fund Name (PSMAGF) Fund Category Mixed Asset Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period primarily through a portfolio allocation across equities

More information

Global House View: Market Outlook

Global House View: Market Outlook HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity

More information

FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged -

FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged - REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Oct-Dec Qtr of 2017 FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged - March 8, 2018 Copyright

More information

Monthly Economic Insight

Monthly Economic Insight Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.

More information

Indonesia Economic Update QNB Group. October 2014

Indonesia Economic Update QNB Group. October 2014 Indonesia Economic Update QNB Group October 214 Indonesia Overview The economy has enormous long-term potential based on a rich endowment of natural resources and a large population; the new Jokowi administration

More information

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL IMF upgraded ASEAN GDP growth forecast for ASEAN economies to benefit from strong economic growth in China The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded ASEAN GDP growth projection for in its

More information

Post QE2 The Dollar to rally? --- The verdict

Post QE2 The Dollar to rally? --- The verdict Post QE2 The Dollar to rally? --- The verdict Suresh Kumar Ramanathan Regional Rates/FX Strategist suresh.ramanathan@cimb.com +6 03 2084 9775 June 2011 3 camps with 3 different views Gradual exit - Doves

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on

More information

Asia Bond Monitor June 2018

Asia Bond Monitor June 2018 September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth

Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth 1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack

More information

APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure : Quarterly and annual GDP growth (percent growth) Appendix Figure : Contributions to GDP expenditures (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets L ast week, the Philippines raised USD. billion from the sale of -year global bonds priced at basis points above benchmark

More information

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL Bank Indonesia cut its reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% This was in tandem with slower global growth and Fed pause on rate Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly cut BI reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% on the

More information

First Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015 Unicharm Presentation Materials for Investor Meeting

First Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015 Unicharm Presentation Materials for Investor Meeting First Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015 Unicharm Presentation Materials for Investor Meeting May 8, 2015 Takahisa Takahara President and CEO Unicharm Corporation Projections stated herein

More information

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Pacific Dividend Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To provide income by investing in a portfolio of stocks in domestic and regional markets which

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Thursday, July 26, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Thursday, July 26, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas DAILY FX OUTLOOK FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Thursday, July 26, 218 Treasury Research & Strategy The broad USD traded on the backfoot in the NY session, getting hit by a series of trade and Fed headlines.

More information

BTMU ASEAN TOPICS. YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 23 JANUARY 2018

BTMU ASEAN TOPICS. YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 23 JANUARY 2018 BTMU ASEAN TOPICS YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp 23 JANUARY 218 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON 28 DECEMBER 217) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.

More information

Switzerland Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014

Switzerland Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014 Switzerland Economic Update QNB Group September 14 Switzerland Overview Switzerland s efficient capital markets, highly skilled human capital and low corporate tax rates make it the world's most competitive

More information

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL 4 August ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in July Drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI may be due to seasonal factors IHS Markit s ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in

More information

PURSUING SHARED PROSPERITY IN AN ERA OF TURBULENCE AND HIGH COMMODITY PRICES

PURSUING SHARED PROSPERITY IN AN ERA OF TURBULENCE AND HIGH COMMODITY PRICES 2012 Key messages Asia-Pacific growth to slow in 2012 amidst global turbulence: Spillovers of the euro zone turmoil Global oil price hikes Excess liquidity and volatile capital flows Key long-term challenge:

More information

社会经济研究中心 SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE QUARTERLY ECONOMY TRACKER (OCT-DEC 2016)

社会经济研究中心 SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE QUARTERLY ECONOMY TRACKER (OCT-DEC 2016) 社会经济研究中心 SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE QUARTERLY ECONOMY TRACKER (OCT-DEC 2016) AGENDA 1 2017 Macroeconomic outlook 2 Issues and challenges ahead 3 Conclusion Socio-Economic Research Centre 1 SECTION

More information

Breakdown of Unitholdings of PGF as at 31 January 2018

Breakdown of Unitholdings of PGF as at 31 January 2018 Fund Information Fund Name Public Growth Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve long-term capital appreciation with income considered incidental. Fund Performance Benchmark The

More information

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy Fund Information Fund Name (PRSEC) Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To seek long-term capital appreciation by investing in selected market sectors. Fund Performance Benchmark The benchmarks

More information

Malaysia. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Malaysia. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations July 212 Neel Sinha* Head of Research, Southeast Asia The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 658 neelsinha@hsbc.com.sg *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC

More information

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009 World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai

More information

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives .Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives How important is NEER to export growth? Strategies on Macro / FX/ Rates 1 April 2016 Non-conventional policies have resulted in non-normal consequences Currency

More information

Markets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only

Markets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only Markets at a Glance India Q CY 17 For Distributors use only India Macro Economy Trade Inflation Monetary Sector Valuations Liquidity Macro Economy GDP Emerging vs Developed (In % YoY) Credit Growth vs

More information

Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Economic Monthly ASEAN & India Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE APRIL 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON APRIL 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s November industrial production was revised upward to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) from the preliminary estimate of.%

More information

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to release monetary policy decision on the 2nd week of April 2018 (9th

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

Malaysia Bond Flows Update

Malaysia Bond Flows Update Malaysia Bond Flows Update Foreign net selloff lower in August, foreign buying to increase on improving fundamentals Economics Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad T: 603-2172 0880 OVERVIEW Foreign selloff moderated.

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2015

Asia Bond Monitor November 2015 1 February 16 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided on 11 February to keep unchanged the overnight borrowing rate at.% and

More information

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811)

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) wider Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) Vol.: ER/004/2015 Malaysia: Country Risk Insight Economics Team Led By: Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist +603 2082 2277 zahidi@marc.com.my www.marc.com.my

More information

Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral

Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Economics Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Group Research October 18 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 687881 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Export

More information

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments

More information

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Tuesday, September 04, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Revised FX forecasts

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Tuesday, September 04, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Revised FX forecasts DAILY FX OUTLOOK Tuesday, September 4, 218 FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Revised FX forecasts Treasury Research & Strategy The USD saw some mixed action amid light trading with the US off on holiday.

More information

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research

More information

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan

More information

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN BOT raised GDP growth forecasts for and 2018 BOT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% for eighteen straight month Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its policy rate, i.e. one-day repurchase rate, at 1.5%

More information

Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Economic Monthly ASEAN & India Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI, SHOHEI TAKASE ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA, MAKIKO STOKES ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 1 DECEMBER 1 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED

More information

INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013

INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013 INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 213 PRESSURES MOUNTING Jim Brumby, PREM Sector Manager & Lead Economist Paramadina Public Policy Institute, March 213 www.worldbank.org/id MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION

More information

Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund (PIALEF)

Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund (PIALEF) Fund Information Fund Name (PIALEF) Fund Category Equity (Shariah-compliant) Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long term period by investing mainly in stocks of companies

More information

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009 The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions

More information

Fund Performance Average Total Return for the Following Years Ended 28 February 2018

Fund Performance Average Total Return for the Following Years Ended 28 February 2018 Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period by primarily investing in the securities

More information

Exports fell 5.3% in February. Surprised on the downside

Exports fell 5.3% in February. Surprised on the downside Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my Shafiz Jamaluddin Economic Analyst 03-2088 8399 shafiz@bankislam.com.my Nor Jannah Abdullah Economic Analyst 03-2782

More information

The global economy and the Fiji dollar

The global economy and the Fiji dollar The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:

More information

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political

More information

Trade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS)

Trade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS) 14,000 RM Million % change y-o-y 50.0 12,000 40.0 10,000 30.0 8,000 20.0 6,000 10.0 4,000 0.0 2,000 (10.0) 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16

More information

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015 Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in

More information

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com

More information

Some Perspectives on Malaysian

Some Perspectives on Malaysian Some Perspectives on Malaysian Fiscal Deficits and Debt 08 November 2012 Nurhisham Hussein Economist MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer The material contained

More information

4th - Asian Fixed Income Summit Investing in Asia s Fixed Income Market

4th - Asian Fixed Income Summit Investing in Asia s Fixed Income Market 4th - Asian Fixed Income Summit Investing in Asia s Fixed Income Market September 217 Derek Armstrong Credit Suisse Head of Debt Capital Markets, Asia Pacific These materials may not be used or relied

More information

GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION

GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION May-1 Nov-1 May-1 Nov-1 THIS QUARTER IN ASIA Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs), Vol.11 April July 213 Source: OECD Development Centre GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION

More information

GCC/ MENA macro outlook. Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research March 2018

GCC/ MENA macro outlook. Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research March 2018 GCC/ MENA macro outlook Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research March 18 1 % y/y GCC: Is the worst behind us? Average GCC GDP growth 1 and 17 have been challenging on a number of fronts for the GCC. Lower

More information

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Friday, June 29, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas

DAILY FX OUTLOOK. Friday, June 29, FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas DAILY FX OUTLOOK FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Friday, June 29, 218 The DXY index consolidated just below its year-to-date highs, before closing above the 95.3 level. The CAD outperformed on higher

More information

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy Fund Information Fund Name (PRS-GRF) Fund Category Core (Growth) Fund Investment Objective The Fund seeks long-term capital growth and to a lesser extent income. Fund Performance Benchmark The benchmarks

More information

Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014

Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014 Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group September 21 Nigeria Overview A rebasing of GDP in 213 has made Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa with the largest population; the economy is growing rapidly but remains

More information

Sublime. Key Take Away GDP Numbers Detail 1Q16 4Q15 1Q15 Real GDP (y-o-y) Real GDP (q-o-q) Domestic Demand Growth

Sublime. Key Take Away GDP Numbers Detail 1Q16 4Q15 1Q15 Real GDP (y-o-y) Real GDP (q-o-q) Domestic Demand Growth M&A Securities Economic Report: Malaysian 1Q16 GDP PP14767/09/2012(030761) Sublime Friday, May 13, 2016 Key Take Away GDP Numbers Detail 1Q16 4Q15 1Q15 Real GDP (y-o-y) 4.2 4.5 5.7 Real GDP (q-o-q) 1.0

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ

More information