ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS June 2012 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
Composition of distressed sales by geography Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions April 2012 60% Percent of Total Transactions 40% 20% 0% 26% 35% 15% 10% 12% 13% 18% 13% 23% 24% 20% 18% 14% 14% 21% 12% 15% 9% 14% 16% 17% 17% 12% 10% 5% 13% 17% 16% 11% 6% Short Sale Move-In Ready REO Damaged REO Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties Who Is Buying Properties? April 2012 100% 21% 14% 33% 75% Percent of Property Type 50% 25% 61% 22% 43% 36% 34% 52% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 36% 32% 18% 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Financing for home purchases 100% Financing for Homebuyers April 2012 26% 17% 15% Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 75% 50% 25% 5% 19% 19% 7% 13% 53% 4% 3% 78% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash 31% 0% Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors 10% Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Arizona Trends
Arizona s unemployment rate keeping pace with US; down to 8.2 percent 12 10 Unemployment Rate (%) 8 6 4 2 United States Arizona 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Arizona house prices down to 2003 levels 240 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) Arizona FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 190 140 United States 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
House prices continued downward trend in many metropolitan areas; little change in Phoenix-Mesa 230 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100) 210 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 190 170 150 Flagstaff 130 110 Yuma Tucson Phoenix-Mesa 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure process continues to fall 200,000 160,000 Number of Mortgages 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Consumer debt delinquency down from 2010 peak 16% Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate 12% Arizona 8% U.S. 4% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
Asking rent has increased as vacancy rate falls in Phoenix $800 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Phoenix Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 15% $770 10% Asking Rent $740 5% Vacancy Rate $710 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category. 0%
Tucson rents up; vacancies down $700 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Tucson Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 12% $670 Asking Rent $640 6% Vacancy Rate $610 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Arizona Data Maps
Arizona Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Arizona Data Maps Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Phoenix Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Phoenix Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Oregon Tucson Area Data Data Maps Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Tucson Area Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events http://www.frbsf.org/community/