WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Italy Brings Renewed Concerns on Markets #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve ordered a new key rate hike. ff United States: The Conference Board confidence index reaches a new cyclical peak. ff Canada: Real GDP by industry rose % in. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Did Hurricane Florence have an impact on hiring in September? ff United States: A slight decline in the ISM manufacturing index is expected. ff Canada: Employment should rebound in September. ff Canada: The trade balance could deteriorate somewhat in August. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Troubles in Italy rattle international markets. ff U.S. bond yields weakened slightly. ff The euro stumbles on renewed financial concerns in Italy. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: 514 281 2336 or 1 866 866 7000, ext. 5552336 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2018, Group. All rights reserved.
Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES CANADA ff The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.00% to 5%. Fed leaders dropped the reference to the accommodative nature of their monetary policy from the statement. The Fed leaders median forecasts concerning key rates point to an additional increase of 25 points this year, three increases in 2019 and a final increase in 2020, leaving rates unchanged in 2021. ff Real GDP by industry rose % in. In general, results are consistent with expectations. Oil and gas extraction declined significantly (-1.2%) for a second straight month due to temporary issues. The effects of this drop are, however, offset by a considerable increase in production in many other sectors of Canada s economy. Manufacturing (+1.2%) and wholesale trade (+1.4%) as well as transportation and warehousing (+%) performed particularly well during the month. Utilities also saw gains of %, as heat waves drove up electricity consumption. Owing to the increase, the carryover for the third quarter is roughly 1.5% (annualized), which is in line with the latest Bank of Canada projection for the period. The final result will clearly exceed this target because there is every reason to believe that real GDP by industry will see further increases in August and September. ff Real consumption was up % in August after four consecutive gains of %. Durable goods and services also posted a % gain, while consumption of non-durable goods was up %. For the third month in a row, the monthly change in prices according to the consumption expenditure deflator was 0.1%. The annual change in the total deflator went from 2.3% to %. The core deflator, which excludes food and energy, stagnated in August for the first time since March 2017. The annual change in the core deflator is still 2.0%. ff The Conference Board s consumer confidence index recorded a third straight increase in September. This time, the monthly gain of points pushed this index to 138.4 its highest level since September 2000. ff New durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August, after declining 1.2% in. This increase stems mainly from aviation, which soared 53.3% after tumbling 30.1%. Excluding transportation, new orders were up by only 0.1%. ff After two months of declines, sales of single-family homes were up in August. However, the 3.5% gain recorded in August does not offset the 6.9% decline suffered in May and. Annualized sales reached 629,000 units in August. ff According to the establishment survey, 8,200 jobs were created in, a result that is clearly much weaker than what the household survey indicated for the same period. At %, annual growth in average weekly earnings remained very strong. ff Wholesale sales rose 1.5% in, beating expectations. What s more, motor vehicle and auto parts sales jumped %, ending three consecutive months of declines. In real terms, sales were up 1.2%, while inventories increased %. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.1% in, marking the weakest monthly advance since April. The index s annual change slowed once again, slipping from 6.4% to 5.9%, the lowest level since August 2017. Francis Généreux, Senior economist 2
Financial Markets The Federal Reserve Is Expected to Continue Its Monetary Tightening The new trade agreement reached between the United States and South Korea on Monday evening went mostly unnoticed on U.S. stock markets. The key rate increase ordered by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday pushed the market down temporarily. The ongoing strain in the U.S. s relationships with Canada and China wiped out the gains made early Thursday. The budget agreement in Italy rippled through markets on Friday, with a planned deficit higher than expected. The S&P 500 was on track to post a weekly loss of about % at the time of writing. Canada s stock market moved in a seesaw pattern, mostly as a result of the trade tensions with the United States, but also the Fed s move and the troubles in Italy. Friday morning, the S&P/TSX index was down about % for the week. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,950 16,600 16,500 2,925 16,400 2,900 16,300 2,875 16,200 16,100 2,850 16,000 2,825 15,900 2018/08/16 2018/08/24 2018/09/03 2018/09/11 2018/09/19 2018/09/27 S&P 500 (left) Market expectations of a key rate increase in the United States propped up bond yields on Tuesday. However, investors seem to have viewed the Fed s statement as dovish, since it no longer refers to an accommodating monetary policy. The budget proposed by Italy s new government spurred concerns. Italian yields climbed back on Friday, amid a renewed appetite for safer assets. This helped drive down U.S. yields. The 2 and 10 year yields were around 0% and 5% at the time of writing. Canadian bond yields followed their U.S. counterparts, rising slightly on Friday morning with the announcement of a higher than-expected monthly GDP increase. The greenback appreciated against a number of other currencies on Thursday and Friday. The U.S. dollar benefited from the renewed risk of escalating American protectionism and the rising concerns in Italy. At the time of writing, the euro was trading at about US$6, while earlier in the week it had hovered closer to US$8. The pound slid in step with the euro. We should point out that European currencies continued to be affected by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations. The loonie suffered from the stronger pessimism around the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the possibility that customs tariffs will be slapped on the automobile sector. That said, the solid monthly data on Canada s GDP released Friday pushed the loonie back up above US$0.77. Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points -0.56 In % 3.2-0.58-0 -2-4 2.6-6 -8-0.70 2018/08/16 2018/08/24 Spread (left) 2018/09/03 2018/09/11 United States (right) 2018/09/19 2018/09/27 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ 0.780 8 0.775 7 0.770 6 0.765 5 0.760 4 0.755 16/08/2018 3 24/08/2018 03/09/2018 11/09/2018 Canadian dollar (left) 19/09/2018 27/09/2018 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3
A Look Ahead UNITED STATES MONDAY October 1-10:00 September 60.0 60.5 August 6 The ISM manufacturing index (September) In August the ISM manufacturing index hit its highest point since May 2004. The 3.2 point monthly gain is the strongest since March 2010. After performances like those, we would expect the ISM manufacturing index to run out of steam. That is also what the movements of leading regional manufacturing indicators are pointing to. Their levels suggest a relapse that could bring the ISM index back down to 60.5, although that is still very high. WEDNESDAY October 3rd - 10:00 September 58.0 59.0 August 58.5 The ISM non-manufacturing index (September) Like the manufacturing index, the ISM non manufacturing index was also up nicely in August, although not to any remarkable extent (it was higher last June). The point gain is still the strongest since January. We expect another gain in September, as some other indexes in the services industry suggest. The new improvement in the Conference Board confidence index for September is also consistent with this view. We expect confidence to grow to 59.0. FRIDAY October 5 - August US$B -5-53.8-50.1 Trade balance (August) The U.S. trade balance dropped below US$50B for the first time since February. The deterioration in the balance was quite marked during June and, after hitting only -US$42.6B in May. We expect a similar deterioration for August. The preliminary figures for trade in goods point to a % drop in exports and a 0.7% increase in imports. The balance of trade in goods and services should go from -US$50.1B to -US$53.8B. FRIDAY October 5 - September 185,000 195,000 August 201,000 Job creation according to the establishment survey (September) Job creation was strong in August, with a gain of 201,000 on the heels of only 147,000 new hires in. Most indicators point to another good job market performance in September. Initial jobless claims in September hit their lowest levels since 1969. Consumer confidence in the job market was up again, according to the Conference Board confidence index, although Hurricane Florence may have put a spoke in the wheels. Bottom line: we expect 195,000 new hires. The release of the ISM and ADP indexes will help shape the forecast. Despite a foreseeable rebound in the labour force after last month s decline, the jobless rate should go down to 3.8%. It will be interesting to watch where wages go after their rapid rise in August. st CANADA FRIDAY October 5 - August $B -0.52 1 International trade (August) Seasonally adjusted and expressed in Canadian dollars, the commodity price index was down % in August due to an overall reduction among the components. That should lower export values for many sectors. U.S. figures on industrial production show strong growth in the automobile sector in August, however, which should boost trade in that sector. Overall, exports should be down slightly for the month. Factoring in the upward trend in imports, everything points to a lower trade balance in August. FRIDAY October 5 - September 32,800 42,000 August -51,600 Labour force survey (September) With a loss of 51,600 jobs, the labour market was astonishingly weak in August. The trend that was established using a 6 month moving average went down to 9,700, which is far too low in view of the current economic growth. In those circumstances, an employment rebound is quite likely for September. That means the unemployment rate could edge down again from 6.0% to 5.9%. 4
OVERSEAS WEDNESDAY October 3rd - 5:00 August m/m % -% : Retail sales (August) Household spending seems to be in difficulty in the euro zone. The annualized growth of real consumption was only 0.7% in Q2, the lowest it has been since winter 2014. The annual change in retail sales dropped from around % in mid 2017 to only % this. A short-term sustained acceleration is too much to hope for. The European consumer confidence index fell to - in September, the lowest it has been since May 2017. Nevertheless, consumption in France shot up to 0.8% in August, which is encouraging for Euroland sales. We will learn more when the figures from are released on Monday morning. Among the other indicators, the final September versions of the PMI indexes will be released this week, with the August unemployment figures coming out on Monday. 5
Economic Indicators Week of October 1st to 5, 2018 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 1 --- 10:00 10:00 12:15 Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) Construction spending (m/m) ISM manufacturing index Speech of the Boston Fed President, E. Rosengren TUESDAY 2 12:00 Speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, J. Powell WEDNESDAY 3 6:00 8:05 10:00 16:00 Speech of the Chicago Fed President, C. Evans Speech of the Richmond Fed President, T. Barkin ISM non-manufacturing index Speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, J. Powell THURSDAY 4 10:00 Initial unemployment claims Factory orders (m/m) FRIDAY 5 15:00 Trade balance Goods and services (US$B) Change in nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Weekly worked hours Average hourly earnings (m/m) Consumer credit (US$B) 16,900,000 0.5% 60.0 17,000,000 0.0% 60.5 16,600,000 0.1% 6 58.0 59.0 58.5 24-28 210,000 1.5% 212,000 2.6% 214,000-0.8% -5 185,000 3.8% 34.5 % 15.0-53.8 195,000 3.8% 34.5 % 14.0-50.1 201,000 3.9% 34.5 % 16.6 CANADA MONDAY 1 --- --- TUESDAY 2 --- --- WEDNESDAY 3 --- --- THURSDAY 4 10:00 PMI-Ivey index n/a 61.5 6 FRIDAY 5 International trade ($B) Net change in employment Unemployment rate 32,800 5.9% -0.52 42,000 5.9% 1-51,600 6.0% Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6
Economic Indicators Week of October 1st to 5, 2018 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS SUNDAY 30 19:50 20:30 Tankan large manufacturers index PMI manufacturing index final Q3 22 n/a 21 5 MONDAY 1 Italy France Italy 2:00 3:45 3:50 3:55 4:00 4:00 4:30 5:00 Retail sales PMI manufacturing index PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final Unemployment rate PMI manufacturing index Unemployment rate % % 5 52.5 53.7 53.3 10.5% 52.5 8.1% -% 50.1 52.5 53.7 53.3 1% 5 8.2% TUESDAY 2 Australia 0:30 1:00 2:00 4:30 5:00 20:30 20:30 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting Consumer confidence Nationwide house prices PMI construction index Producer price index PMI composite index PMI services index Oct. 1.50% 43.1 % % 5 % 3.9% n/a n/a 1.50% 43.3-0.5% 5 % 52.0 51.5 WEDNESDAY 3 Italy Italy France France 3:45 3:45 3:50 3:50 3:55 3:55 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 PMI composite index PMI services index PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index PMI services index Retail sales 51.8 5 53.6 54.3 55.3 56.5 54.2 54.7 53.9 54.0 % 1.7% 51.7 52.6 53.6 54.3 55.3 56.5 54.2 54.7 54.2 54.3 -% THURSDAY 4 Mexico 14:00 Bank of Mexico meeting Oct. 7.75% 7.75% FRIDAY 5 France Italy India 2:00 2:45 4:00 5:00 Factory orders Trade balance ( M) Retail sales Reserve Bank of India meeting Oct. 0.7% -3.2% -4,500 % 0.1% 6.75% -% -3,490 % 6.50% 0.8% 2.0% 4.0% % -% -% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). 7
UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index (Dec. 2005 = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2017 2016 2015 4.2 3.8 2.5-8.7 --9.3-4.0-1.0 --- 2.6 7.1 --5.7 4.2 --- 2.5 3.3 5.3 22.5 4.6 2.5 2.5-449.1 2.7 1.4 6.5 0.5 23.4 2.3 0.1-43 3.7 10.1 1.8 129.0 5.5 3.3 1.0 1.7-407.8 18,512 12,842 3,172 613.2 2,710-36.8 2,574 3,415 19,331 11 105.1 109.3 133.3-101.5 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 ISM non-manufacturing index1 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits (k)1 New home sales (k)1 Existing home sales (k)1 Commercial surplus ($M)1 Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price (1982 1984 = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year * * * 111.2 6 58.5 138.4 12,953 14,398 3,918 509,025 58.1 55.7 134.7 0.1 58.7 58.6 127.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 2.5 60.8 59.5 127.0 2.0 3.3 6.4 59.3 55.2 12 4.6 6.6 407,332 1.5 3.8 7.3 * * 108.2 78.1 497,754 259,592 1,950 1,282 1,249 629.0 5,340-50,082 149,279 3.9 251.8 77.9-0.8 4.5 1,174 1,303 608.0 5,340-45,739 201.0 3.9 1.4 77.4 4.1 1,329 1,301 65 5,410-45,512 556.0 3.8 0.5 77.2 3.6 5.5 1.8 1,290 1,323 66 5,540-52,334 1,154 4.1 4.9 75.7 9.0 11.8 4.3 1,172 1,300 558.0 5,420-44,221 2,330 4.4 2.7 258.1 0.1 0.5 * 108.5 0.1 0.8 * 11 0.0 2.0 116.3 127.3 127.4 - - - 1.0 1.2 0.5 3.6 3.7 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8
CANADA Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2017 2016 2015 Current account balance ($M)1 1,891,153 1,083,677 366,209 128,092 182,622 14,112 607,635 621,979 1,882,843 117.6 110.0 116.8-15,876 2.6 --12.3 6.5 2.7 - --- 0.7 6.7 -- 4.9 0.0 --- 3.5 2.3 13,921 3.6 2.3-63,267 1.4 3.3-9.4 978.0 1.0-1.0-65,372 1.0 3.8-1 4,711 3.5 0.7-0.8-0.5 2.3-71,526 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 85.5 1,248,172 283,584 -- 11.8 --3.9 4.6 82.5 4.9 19.9 8-80.5 4.7-19.8 Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. CANADA Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 1 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 * * VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,789,035 390,151 58,614 201.0 8,208 50,903 205.8 0.8 3.6 194.7 3.9 3.4 7.2 23-3.2 10.5 225.5 3.7 37,486 2.7 4.6 * 63,927-114.3 1.5-74 -1,597-1,930 4.1-2,598 51,265 51,380 0.8-4.9 1.8 1 7.6 16.3 10.1 18,631-5 11.4 9.7 14.3 * * 6.0 996.7 16,642 134.2 5.8-8.2 5.8 33.2 5.8 3 6.2 27.6 128.5 13 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.7 * * 118.9 111.2 980,632-0.5-4.6-0.0-3.4 3.2 5.8 15.5 4.0 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9
UNITED STATES, CANADA, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) Sep. 28 Sep. 21-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) 5 0 1 4 4 3.18 2,919 26,481 1,193 195.48 73.23 2.00 4 1 5 7 3.20 2,930 26,744 1,198 193.98 70.80 2.00 2.07 2.63 2.74 6 1 2,902 25,965 1,203 196 69.84 2.00 1.89 2.53 2.73 6 9 2,718 24,271 1,251 209 74.13 1.75 1.70 7 2.55 2.75 7 2,641 24,103 1,323 195.36 64.87 1.25 1.04 1.49 2 2.33 6 2,519 22,405 1,284 189 57 5 0 4 9 3.12 3.25 2,931 26,744 1,359 206.38 77.41 6 6 4 2.54 2.74 0 2,722 24,739 1,281 193.80 64.02 1.25 1.00 1.48 1 8 2.69 2,529 22,558 1,179 180 49.34 Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years 1.50 1.56 1 2.33 2 1 1.50 1.51 8 2.33 3 4 1.50 1.53 2.06 6 2 5 1.25 1.26 1 2.06 7 0 1.25 0 1.77 6 2.09 3 1.00 1.00 1.52 1.75 0 7 1.50 1.58 1 2.35 2.52 2.53 1.23 8 1.82 2.01 9 2.33 1.00 0.87 9 1.59 1.83 0 Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target -0.75 Treasury bill 3 months -4 Treasury bonds 2 years -1 Treasury bonds 5 years -1 Treasury bonds 10 years -2 Treasury bonds 30 years -0.77-3 -3-2 -4-0.76-0.54-0.57-0.58-4 -0.76-0.75-3 -2-7 -9-0.79-0 -0.59-6 -0.74-5 -0.04 0.03 7-3 -9-5 0.05 5-0 -6-3 -8-3 -0.53-0.55-7 -0.75-0.74-0.77-0.79-0.78-0.85 S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 16,138 1.2915 1.5009 16,224 1.2915 1.5175 16,263 039 1.5127 16,278 132 1.5345 15,367 1.2894 1.5889 15,635 1.2470 1.4731 16,567 339 130 15,976 1.2832 1.5270 15,035 1.2268 1.4666 Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) 622 750 601 685 1.2323 814 1.2510 903 344 BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 0.75 1.57 7,522 044 0.75 1.46 7,490 078 0.75 4 7,432 1.2964 0.50 3 7,637 209 0.50 9 7,057 1.4018 5 1.40 7,373 397 0.75 7 7,877 1.4338 0.52 1.40 7,483 456 5 8 6,889 1.2698 Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) 7 12,257 6 12,431 3 12,364 1 12,306 0.50 12,097 6 12,829 0.72 13,560 6 12,702 7 11,787 BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 24,120 113.46 23,870 112.58 22,865 111.04 22,305 118 21,454 106.28 20,356 119 24,124 114.18 22,380 118 20,401 104.74 CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10