Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 848-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01AM THURSDAY AUGUST 6, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Asst. Director Ashley Koning may be contacted at 908-872-1186 (cell), 848-932-8940 (office), or akoning@rutgers.edu until 11:00pm. Poll Director David Redlawsk may be reached at 319-400-1134 (cell), 848-932-8504 (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available during embargo at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/new-wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/release_08-05-15- Embargoed.pdf. Find all releases at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu, and visit our blog at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. CHRISTIE S NJ RATINGS DROP TO NEW ALL-TIME LOWS; VOTERS CITE GOV S ATTITUDE, BULLYING, AND UNTRUSTWORTHINESS Note: This was conducted prior to Gov. Chris Christie qualifying as a participant in Fox News first Republican presidential primary debate this Thursday, August 6 th. NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. As Gov. Chris Christie campaigns to win over voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, voters back home are more dissatisfied with him than ever, according to the latest. Just 30 percent of New Jersey registered voters have a favorable opinion of Christie, an eight-point drop since April and less than half his favorable rating following his November 2013 re-election; 59 percent are now unfavorable, an 11-point increase since April. Christie s favorability has mostly been on a downward spiral since August 2014. Governor Christie has not experienced any kind of 2016 announcement bump in ratings from voters back home in fact, quite the opposite, said Ashley Koning, assistant director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. While he has yet to challenge the record low job approval of 17 percent logged by Brendan Byrne in April 1977, he is edging toward the lowest ratings recorded for any New Jersey governor over 45 years of s. Voter dislike for Christie stems from defining traits that have proved both a blessing and a curse for him since taking office. Asked to justify their negative assessments, 18 percent cite his character, attitude, and image as reasons for their unfavorable feelings; another 10 percent use such terms as untrustworthy, deceitful, and liar. Among the 30 percent who are favorable, 28 percent point to his honesty and straightforwardness, 15 percent like his overall governing style and performance, and 14 percent each cite his personality and his attempts to better New Jersey. Christie s overall job approval shows a similar collapse over the past year, also reaching a new low after a steady decline since August 2014. He now stands at 37 percent approve (down four points) to 59 percent disapprove (up five points). Christie fares no better on individual issues, reaching a new low on approval for Superstorm Sandy recovery now at 46 percent approve, far below his April 2013 peak of 87 percent. Forty-seven percent currently disapprove of his work in this area. 1
Christie also falls to new lows on education (34 percent approve, 58 percent disapprove) and crime and drugs (43 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove). He remains at his low point on the economy and jobs (31 percent approve, 62 percent disapprove), and continues to receive substantial disapproval for his efforts on taxes (28 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove), the state budget (30 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove), and the state pension fund situation (22 percent approve, 62 percent disapprove). Results are from a statewide poll of 867 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from July 25 to August 1, including 757 registered voters reported on in this release. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Christie s favorability drops across the board Christie s favorability has reached new lows in virtually every demographic, seeing declines among his usual supporters and detractors alike. His Republican base seems to be growing more weary, with just 61 percent of GOPers now having a favorable impression of the governor, down seven points since April and miles from the near-unanimous party support he received pre-bridgegate. Views among Democrats have sunk even lower, with just 11 percent now favorable toward the governor less than half of the favorable rating four months ago; 78 percent are unfavorable. Independents also show a six-point drop in favorability, now at 30 percent, versus 59 percent who are unfavorable. Christie now does worse with men than with women, reversing the typical gender gap that Christie has faced as a Republican down 10 points to 29 percent favorable among the former, and down five points to 32 percent among the latter. His favorability has also dropped among both white (seven points to 36 percent favorable) and non-white voters (11 points to 18 percent favorable). Middle-aged voters show an especially large decline compared to other age groups: now 28 percent favorable (down 18 points), versus 24 percent favorable among millennials and 40 percent among senior citizens. Even many of Christie s strongest supporters in shore and especially exurban counties have pulled away from him, with about four in 10 now feeling favorably an 11-point drop since April for exurbanites. Residents of urban, suburban, and southern counties traditionally more Democratic regions show further drops in their already lower favorability rating. The attitude, the bullying, perception of lies When New Jersey voters are asked why they feel favorable or unfavorable toward the governor, Christie s most famous traits spur both positive and negative views. His tell it like it is campaign seems to be working at least on some Garden State voters, with a few respondents directly referencing the slogan to explain their positivity. Among the 28 percent who feel similarly, his frankness, no nonsense approach, ability to speak his mind, and being a man of his word are frequently mentioned. The 15 percent who give his performance as governor as a reason for their favorable views 2
think Christie is doing a good job and is trying and working hard. Favorable voters also mention a range of positive personal attributes, calling him respectful, caring, nice, and courageous and even appreciate his tough guy, bully approach. Christie s policy decisions and actions, his Superstorm Sandy leadership, and his effectiveness and ability to get things done are mentioned as positive reasons as well, but each come in at single digits. Christie s most infamous personal traits some of the very same mentioned by Christie supporters take the top three spots among reasons given by unfavorable voters. In the words of one voter among the 18 percent who mentioned Christie s personality, I am tired of the loudmouth Jersey guy routine. Among those unfavorable voters who mention something pertaining to honesty, the second-highest reason at 10 percent, many outright call Christie a liar and believe he does not keep his promises. Another 9 percent specifically mention bully as why they dislike him, the same percentage that cites his treatment of teachers and the education system. Other reasons for voter dislike include: Christie s handling of state workers, unions, and the pension system (8 percent); his overall governing and apathy toward New Jersey and its citizens (each at 7 percent); his ineffectiveness and lack of accomplishments (5 percent);,and his policy decisions (5 percent). His out-of-state traveling and campaigning for president, as well as scandals such as Bridgegate, actually rank low among voters reasons for discontent (3 percent each). While there have been both highs and lows in the trajectory of Chris Christie as governor, voters are more focused on Christie s personal qualities than specific events, said Koning. In his heyday, Christie was the tough Jersey guy you wanted on your side, the refreshing straight-talker who tells it like it is. But at his lowest moments, these same traits have been used against him and are painted in a much more unflattering light. Voter explanations of their views especially negative ones have more to do with the governor himself and his personal style than anything else. Negativity grows among Christie s base Though slightly higher than his favorability, Christie s overall job approval as governor has nevertheless reached a new low. While 69 percent of Republicans are still in his corner, only 19 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of independents approve of his performance as governor. Since April, backing from many of his typical supporters has fallen: male voters to 36 percent (down seven points), white voters to 41 percent (down five points), those who are middle-aged to 34 percent (down 13 points), and exurbanites to 44 percent (down 10 points). Christie s approvals by issue fare no better. On Republicans top concern, taxes, just 38 percent approve of his approach, while 54 percent disapprove the first time a majority of Christie s base has given him disapproval on the issue. Twenty percent of Democrats and 30 percent of independents approve Christie s job in this area; similar numbers feel the same on his handling of the economy and jobs. Christie does better with Republicans on the economy, at 50 percent approval. 3
Republicans are also mostly responsible for Christie s new lows on education (52 percent of GOP voters now approve, down 10 points) and crime (57 percent of GOP voters now approve, down 12 points), whereas Democrats and independents have fluctuated little. Republican voters also show growing disapproval with how the governor has handled the state pension fund: 32 percent of Republicans now support Christie here (down 13 points), while 45 percent disapprove. Only 14 percent of Democrats (up six points) and 23 percent of independents approve. Views on Sandy recovery efforts and the state budget are virtually steady since April. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 4
Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of August 6, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask you about some people. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN AND TO BE RELEASED AT A LATER DATE; ORDER RANDOMIZED] NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE Right Direction Wrong Track Economy and Jobs Taxes Gov. Corruption Favorable 30% 63% 11% 27% 44% 18% Unfavorable 59% 26% 80% 64% 45% 76% No opn/don t know person 11% 12% 9% 10% 11% 5% Unwgt N= 756 257 447 151 181 120 Click here to see graph of favorability trend Trend 4/15 2/15 12/14 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 Fav 38% 37% 44% 42% 49% 50% 49% 46% 65% 61% 60% 64% 64% 70% 67% 48% Unfav 48% 53% 46% 45% 40% 42% 40% 43% 27% 28% 32% 26% 26% 20% 25% 42% DK 14% 10% 11% 12% 10% 9% 11% 11% 8% 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 9% 11% N= 716 694 644 730 747 727 726 754 800 798 812 761 816 695 1105 787 Trend 8/12 6/12 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/118/114/112/11 Fav 49% 50% 46% 47% 49% 49% 45%44%46% Unfav 40% 39% 42% 42% 37% 39% 47%42%44% DK 11% 11% 12% 11% 14% 12% 8% 14%10% N= 911 1,064 514 910 752 803 613 769 810 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White 18-39 40-64 65+ Favorable 11% 30% 61% 14% 27% 55% 29% 32% 36% 18% 24% 28% 40% Unfavorable 78% 59% 29% 81% 61% 32% 61% 58% 56% 66% 63% 62% 50% Don t know 11% 11% 10% 5% 12% 13% 10% 11% 8% 16% 13% 10% 10% Unwt N= 242 310 189 164 403 171 374 382 555 174 146 388 211 Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Favorable 23% 27% 41% 21% 43% Unfavorable 63% 61% 50% 70% 48% Don t know 14% 12% 8% 9% 9% Unwt N= 102 252 129 127 146 [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE] 5
Q. In just a word or two, please tell me why you feel [FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE] toward Governor Chris Christie. [OPEN ENDED, RECORD VERBATIM] Favorable Toward Christie Click here to see word cloud of favorable open-ended responses Honesty and straightforwardness 28% Governing style and overall job as governor 15% Character, attitude, and image 14% Improving New Jersey 14% Policy decisions and actions 5% Hurricane Sandy leadership 3% Getting things done in New Jersey 3% Taxes 2% Education and teachers 2% Handling of unions, state workers, and pensions 2% Cares about New Jersey and its citizens 1% Other 10% Don't know 0% Unwt N= 248 Unfavorable Toward Christie Click here to see word cloud of unfavorable open-ended responses Character, attitude, and image 18% Untrustworthy, deceitful, and dishonest 10% Confrontational, bully-like approach 9% Education and teachers 9% Handling of unions, state workers, and pensions 8% Governing style and overall job as governor 7% Hurting New Jersey, uncaring about its citizens 7% Not getting anything done, ineffective 5% Policy decisions and actions 5% 2016 election, traveling out of state 3% George Washington Bridge and other scandals 3% Ideology, beliefs, and positions 2% Taxes 2% Hurricane Sandy leadership 2% Other 10% Don't know 1% Unwt N= 432 6
Q. Please rate how Chris Christie is handling his job as governor, using a grading scale from A to F. You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F. NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem Right Direction Wrong Track Taxes Economy and Jobs Gov. Corruption A 7% 18% 1% 11% 4% 6% B 22% 43% 9% 32% 23% 9% C 20% 23% 19% 21% 22% 19% D 23% 8% 31% 19% 25% 23% F 27% 6% 41% 17% 27% 42% DK 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Unwt N= 756 258 446 181 151 120 Click here to see graph of job grade trend Trend 4/15 2/15 12/4 10/14 4/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 A 5% 8% 8% 10% 13% 12% 21% 21% 17% 24% 21% 24% 28% 18% B 25% 23% 31% 25% 31% 31% 38% 39% 36% 34% 39% 40% 33% 29% C 28% 26% 22% 28% 24% 27% 22% 21% 23% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% D 18% 21% 17% 16% 16% 15% 10% 9% 13% 9% 10% 9% 11% 15% F 24% 22% 21% 19% 16% 14% 8% 9% 10% 8% 7% 4% 5% 15% DK 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% Unwt N= 715 692 645 733 730 751 800 798 813 759 819 698 573 788 Trend 8/12 6/12 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 A 15% 15% 12% 16% 18% 14% 13% 14% 14% B 30% 31% 31% 27% 28% 30% 25% 32% 24% C 25% 24% 25% 24% 21% 27% 18% 20% 26% D 13% 15% 13% 14% 17% 14% 24% 14% 15% F 16% 14% 17% 18% 13% 14% 19% 21% 19% DK 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% Unwt N= 913 1,063 516 914 752 799 612 390 416 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Registered Voters Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Nonwhite 18-39 40-64 65+ A 4% 6% 15% 4% 6% 12% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 10% B 10% 24% 38% 10% 21% 39% 22% 22% 26% 14% 25% 20% 22% C 19% 19% 28% 16% 21% 23% 23% 17% 20% 22% 19% 21% 20% D 30% 23% 9% 32% 22% 15% 25% 21% 21% 27% 25% 23% 21% F 38% 28% 10% 38% 30% 11% 23% 32% 26% 32% 25% 29% 27% DK 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Unwt N= 241 311 189 163 403 172 374 382 555 174 146 388 211 7
Region Urban Suburb ExurbanSouth Shore A 5% 6% 7% 8% 11% B 13% 22% 29% 20% 25% C 24% 18% 25% 16% 22% D 25% 24% 20% 26% 18% F 33% 29% 20% 30% 24% DK 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Unwt N= 102 253 129 126 146 Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? Christie Favorability NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem Fav Unfav Right Direction Wrong Track Taxes Economy and Jobs Gov. Corruption Approve 37% 94% 8% 75% 14% 49% 34% 24% Disapprove 59% 5% 91% 20% 83% 44% 64% 73% Don't know 4% 2% 2% 5% 3% 7% 2% 3% Unwgt N= 749 247 434 254 443 179 151 119 Click here to see graph of overall job approval trend Trend 4/15 2/15 12/14 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 Approve 41% 42% 48% 49% 52% 55% 55% 53% 68% 67% 66% 70% 68% 73% 67% Disapprove 54% 52% 47% 46% 41% 41% 39% 41% 26% 29% 31% 25% 26% 23% 26% Don t know 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 7% Unwgt N= 713 690 637 730 749 724 725 747 795 794 809 756 810 696 533 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White 18-39 40-64 65+ Approve 19% 34% 69% 18% 32% 65% 36% 37% 41% 28% 35% 34% 43% Disapprove 77% 62% 28% 80% 63% 31% 60% 58% 56% 66% 61% 61% 54% Don t know 4% 4% 4% 2% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 5% 3% Unwt N= 240 306 188 161 401 169 369 380 553 172 144 385 209 Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 30% 34% 44% 34% 44% Disapprove 67% 62% 51% 64% 49% Don t know 3% 4% 5% 1% 7% Unwt N= 101 249 128 126 145 Q. I am going to list some specific areas where I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as Governor. First: [ORDER RANDOMIZED] 8
NJ s economy and jobs Taxes Education and schools Sandy recovery Crime and drugs The state budget State Pension fund situation Approve 31% 28% 34% 46% 43% 30% 22% Disapprove 62% 63% 58% 47% 41% 57% 62% Don t know 7% 8% 8% 8% 16% 12% 16% Unwgt N= 754 755 752 755 746 750 749 Click here to see graph of individual issue approval trends NJ s Economy and Jobs Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Economy/Jobs Approve 31% 63% 15% 59% 13% 17% Disapprove 62% 29% 80% 33% 81% 79% Don't know 7% 8% 6% 8% 6% 4% Unwgt N= 754 248 437 278 437 150 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 22% 29% 50% 21% 29% 45% 32% 31% 21% 32% 34% 29% 38% Disapprove 72% 63% 44% 71% 64% 48% 61% 62% 71% 62% 62% 63% 52% Don t know 6% 8% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 6% 4% 8% 9% Unwt N= 242 309 188 163 401 172 373 381 102 253 129 126 144 Taxes Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Taxes Approve 28% 58% 14% 55% 12% 22% Disapprove 63% 35% 80% 37% 81% 70% Don't know 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% Unwgt N= 755 249 437 279 437 181 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 20% 30% 38% 19% 27% 39% 27% 30% 24% 26% 32% 25% 37% Disapprove 69% 64% 54% 68% 67% 51% 67% 60% 64% 67% 56% 70% 56% Don t know 11% 6% 8% 13% 6% 10% 7% 10% 13% 7% 12% 6% 7% Unwt N= 241 310 189 163 402 172 373 382 102 253 129 127 144 Education and Schools 9
Christie Favorability Christie Overall Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Education/Schools Approve 34% 69% 14% 65% 15% 15% Disapprove 58% 20% 80% 26% 80% 84% Don't know 8% 11% 6% 9% 6% 1% Unwgt N= 752 247 436 278 435 77* * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 22% 35% 52% 17% 36% 45% 35% 32% 27% 33% 41% 29% 41% Disapprove 72% 56% 38% 75% 59% 41% 56% 59% 67% 59% 51% 63% 48% Don t know 6% 9% 10% 8% 6% 14% 8% 8% 6% 8% 8% 8% 11% Unwt N= 240 309 188 161 402 171 372 380 99* 252 129 127 145 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution Hurricane Sandy Recovery Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 46% 75% 29% 75% 28% Disapprove 47% 18% 64% 19% 65% Don't know 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% Unwgt N= 755 249 436 279 437 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 32% 50% 59% 34% 46% 58% 48% 43% 38% 50% 41% 38% 56% Disapprove 60% 43% 34% 60% 46% 35% 45% 48% 54% 44% 49% 52% 38% Don t know 8% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 6% 10% 10% 6% Unwt N= 241 310 189 163 402 172 373 382 102 252 129 127 145 Crime and drugs Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 43% 71% 29% 68% 28% Disapprove 41% 16% 55% 19% 55% Don't know 16% 13% 16% 13% 16% Unwgt N= 746 243 433 274 433 10
Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 35% 43% 57% 30% 42% 61% 46% 41% 34% 46% 50% 40% 43% Disapprove 45% 44% 28% 50% 44% 23% 41% 41% 52% 39% 35% 38% 43% Don t know 20% 13% 15% 19% 14% 15% 14% 18% 14% 15% 15% 22% 14% Unwt N= 240 304 188 161 396 172 372 374 100 249 127 127 143 The state budget Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 30% 71% 10% 67% 8% Disapprove 57% 14% 82% 16% 84% Don't know 12% 15% 9% 17% 8% Unwgt N= 750 248 433 278 434 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 16% 29% 55% 19% 28% 48% 33% 28% 23% 26% 40% 25% 43% Disapprove 71% 59% 33% 70% 61% 37% 57% 57% 61% 62% 50% 64% 45% Don t know 13% 11% 12% 10% 11% 15% 10% 14% 16% 12% 10% 11% 11% Unwt N= 241 307 188 162 399 172 369 381 102 249 129 127 143 The state pension fund situation Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 22% 47% 10% 46% 8% Disapprove 62% 29% 80% 30% 81% Don't know 16% 24% 11% 23% 10% Unwgt N= 749 245 435 274 437 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 14% 23% 32% 9% 19% 41% 25% 20% 13% 21% 27% 21% 27% Disapprove 74% 60% 45% 79% 66% 35% 62% 62% 72% 63% 57% 62% 54% Don t know 12% 16% 22% 12% 14% 24% 14% 19% 15% 15% 16% 16% 19% Unwt N= 241 308 186 162 399 171 369 380 102 252 126 124 145 Q. Would you say the state of New Jersey is currently going in the right direction or has it gone off on the wrong track? 11
Going in the right direction 34% On the wrong track 59% Don't know 7% Unwgt N= 750 Q. Of the following, which is the MOST important problem facing New Jersey today? Is it: [ORDER RANDOMIZED] Taxes, including property taxes 21% The economy and jobs 20% Government corruption and abuse of power 18% Education and schools 12% Crime and drugs 9% The state pension fund 8% Government spending 5% Health care 3% Something else 2% Don't know 2% Unwgt N= 753 The was conducted by telephone using live callers July 25 August 1, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 867 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. The sample contains a subsample of 757 registered voters. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 505 landline and 362 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 17% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 25% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 52% Landline Only: 6% Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 867 adults is +/-3.3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.37, making the adjusted 12
margin of error +/- 3.9 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 757 registered voters is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.27, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.0 and 54.0 percent (50 +/-4.0) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, with additional calling by Braun Research, Inc. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at www.eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 757 New Jersey Registered Voters 35% Democrat 47% Male 21% 18-34 69% White 42% Independent 53% Female 21% 35-49 11% Black 23% Republican 33% 50-64 12% Hispanic 24% 65+ 8% Asian/Other/Multi 13