Report From 8 12 January, 2018 Important Highlights Euro zone Purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector advanced in December at 60.6 from the 60.1 in month prior. US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which rose to 55.1 in December, from the prior reading of 55.0. It was the highest reading since March 2015. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting showed most participants reiterated their support for continuing a gradual approach to hiking interest rates. UK economic data front, construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in December, from 53.1 in November. German unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5% in December from last month. UK manufacturing sector grew on a slower pace, with its PMI fall to 56.3 from 58.2 in November. US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 3,000 to 250,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised up by 2,000. Economists had been expecting a drop to 240,000. U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 148,000 last month after a surge of 252,000 in November, the Labor Department said on Friday. Retail payrolls fell by 20,300 in December, the largest drop since March, despite reports of a strong holiday shopping season. U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at a 17 year low of 4.1 percent. FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Weekly Change & Technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI January Future Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 63.51 0.83 63.9033 64.2867 63.6767 63.2933 63.0667 EURINR 76.64 0.25 76.9300 77.2200 76.7000 76.4100 76.1800 GBPINR 86.07 0.55 86.5567 87.0533 86.2633 85.7667 85.4733 JPYINR 56.16 1.44 57.0533 57.9367 56.5867 55.7033 55.2367 Currency against U.S. dollar Currency LTP Wk % Trend Pair Change R1 R2 S1 S2 (wk) DOLLAR INDEX 91.75 0.26 92.1667 92.5833 91.4167 91.0833 Bearish EURUSD 1.2029 0.24 1.2084 1.2140 1.1974 1.1920 Bullish GBPUSD 1.3573 0.54 1.3592 1.3611 1.3552 1.3531 Bullish USDJPY 113.06 0.32 113.2733 113.4867 112.8233 112.5867 Bearish Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ December 29, 2017 Total Reserves $409.36 bln up $4.44 bln Change in$ (Wk) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91 0731 4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
USD INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 63.51 63.40 63.00 62.80 63.82 Dollar/rupee continued its recent bearish trend and tested fresh thirty month low. On Friday it tested 63.550 levels on selling by foreign banks likely for exporters amid overall slump in the greenback. The dollar slumped against major currencies as investors bet on faster monetary policy tightening outside the US. Technical, Sell strategy given below 63.95 was initiated with USDINR drop towards 63.4550 levels. On the weekly chart, pair trading on verge of crucial support 63.40 and break below it only could extend the recent losses and it may test 63.00 and below. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 64.30 breaks above only could expect to test 64.65 64.88 levels. Dollar Index Dollar remained subdued against major currencies as there is absence of major triggers in the market. Investors refrain from taking positions waiting for fresh cues expected oiut of upcoming data, mainly December retail sales and inflation data in US, due for release later this week. Technically, On the above chart, dollar index has broken its important support 92.35 which is coincided with July 2017 swing low. However, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which creating probability for temporary recovery before any next bearish move On the downside, crucial support is seen at 91.40 below only will expect to test 91.00 90.60.
EUR INR January Future LTP Sell around 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 76.64 76.70 76.75 76.20 76.00 77.02 Euro/Rupee retreated from the weekly high on Friday on profit booking by investors after the currency pair surged to four month high level post release of upbeat Euro zone purchasing manager s data in the previous session. Technically, on the weekly chart, EURINR has stalled its recent bullish move and retreated from the weekly high 76.9975 levels. Pair failed to break descending triangle pattern and formed a high wave candle stick which creating probability for indecisive move in days to come. On the upside, pair would need to break above 77.05 for the confirmation. A break above 77.05 is expected to witness abrupt bullish move towards 78.50 and above. On the downside, 75.50 will act as a crucial support for the week and break below only could show next downside move towards 75.00. GBP INR January Future LTP Buy around 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 86.07 85.80 86.30 86.65 85.55 Pound/rupee traded off three month high Wednesday as investors booked their profits taking advantage of the rally amid dismal UK construction data. On the UK economic data front, construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in December, from 53.1 in November. Technically, GBPINR retreated from the weekly high 86.76 and tested 85.97 before closing at 86.06 levels. Buy strategy given above 86.65 failed to hit predict ted level 87.00. In near term, any dip towards 85.80 85.90 is expected to attract near term buying activities. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 85.50 and break below only could test 85.00 and below.
JPY INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 56.16 56.10 55.65 55.30 56.48 Yen drop to one week high Friday as investors grew cautious post release of lackluster Japan services sector purchasing manager index data. Meanwhile, the dollar remained subdued against major currencies as investors bet on faster monetary policy tightening outside the US. Technical, JPYINR failed to hold above 57.25 levels and after hitting a weekly high 57.4750 retreated towards 56.12 levels. Weekly price action resulted in formation of long bearish candle stick and also pair broke its crucial support 56.50 both of which indicating for bearishness in near term. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 57.20 and break above it will expect to test 57.70 58.00 levels. High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 10.01.18 3:00pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.30% 0.10% Positive 9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.4M 11.01.18 7:00pm USD PPI m/m 0.20% 0.40% Negative 12.01.18 7:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.40% Negative USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% Positive USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 1.00% Negative USD Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 0.80% Negative Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source:Tickerplant *DOS Depends on statement. DOV Depends on Votes. DOR Depends on Report.
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