06 April 2018
S&P 500 A 5 wave decline can be counted on the daily chart from the 2807.25 high of March to the low of 2552. This is the first indication that a trading low may be in place. Confidence that a low is in would increase on a daily close above the 2680/2700 resistance region. Until that close is achieved there remains the possibility of a move into the 2500/2460 area to complete the corrective sequence. TRADING VIEW: Neutral at current levels. Waiting for a dip into the 2500/2460 area to build longs or alternatively would consider building longs on dips once a close above 2680/00 is achieved. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 2
EURUSD Overnight the EURUSD has tested and broken recent lows at 1.2239 as well as long term trendline support ~ 1.2230/20. This is the first indication that a deeper retracement back to 1.2070 is underway. Ideally this confirmation will come post the Non Farm Payrolls Data tonight in the U.S, however as always heading into Tier 1 data some caution is warranted. TRADING VIEW: Short EURUSD post the break of 1.2220. Look to add on a bounce to 1.2280, the target will be a move to the 1.2070/90 area. Stops should be placed above 1.2350. Please note the short EURUSD and Long USDJPY trade are correlated which means position sizing must be reduced accordingly. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 3
AUDUSD I am neutral at current levels waiting for confirmation the most recent down leg was the start of a Wave III lower. A break and close below key support.7600c area (the uptrend from the January 2016.6825 low as well as the 100% fibo extension level) would confirm the bearish wave count and in this instance the initial target becomes.7180/60. Conversely, gains above.7920 would be a positive development and put a retest of.8125/35 back in focus. TRADING VIEW: A Break and close below support.7600c would be the catalyst to looking for short trade opportunities in the sessions ahead. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 4
AUDNZD The downside focus remains on the long term weekly support line which comes in 1.0500/1.0480 area. There is a good chance of a bounce from this 1.0500, if only to correct the recent downtrend. In fact the bounce may be closer than anticipated given the appearance of a double low and a daily doji candle overnight. TRADING VIEW: Aggressive traders may consider a countertrend long trade should AUDNZD test, hold and close above the support at 1.0500. Stop losses should be placed below 1.0380 initially. The targets for the bounce would be the 1.0750 area. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 5
EURAUD The corrective pullback in EURAUD continues With a well established uptrend in place my preference is to trade EURAUD from the long side. Currently waiting for a Wave IV pullback towards the 1.5800/1.5650 value zone to reset longs. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 6
GBPUSD GBPUSD has tested and marginally broken the 1.4000/1.3980 support zone, before reclaiming the 1.4000 handle on the close. The view remains that a daily close below 1.4000/1.3980 is the initial indication a deeper retracement towards 1.3710/1.3650 has begun. TRADING VIEW: Consider shorts post a daily close below 1.4000/1.3980. Stops above 1.4250 initially. Initial target is 1.3710. Should the correction deepen, a break of 1.3600/1.3550 would shift the focus to downside targets in the mid 1.20 s. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 7
USDJPY The view remains that last weeks low at 104.62 was a Wave III low and that a Wave IV bounce towards 108.00/50 has commenced. In Wednesdays update it was suggested Establishing USDJPY longs on a dip towards 106.25/05 with stop losses placed below 105.60 in anticipation of a move to 108.00. This idea has benefited from the break of the short term downtrend 106.85 and the highs from last week 107.02 area. TRADING VIEW: Long from Wednesdays dip to 106.25/05. Raise the the stop losses from 105.60 to breakeven. The Target remains the 108.00 area. Please note this is a countertrend trade so consider trailing stops higher. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 8
BITCOIN An indecisive few days of price action with Bitcoin trading either side of the trendline support ~ 6800. Given the lack of downside follow through post the break of the trendline it could be argued Bitcoin is searching for a low. However whether we have a failed Wave 5 low in place or a new low below 5920 is required, remains to be seen. To become more comfortable a low is in place a move/close above the downtrend 8600 would be a good start followed by a move above the 200 day moving average at 9400. A break below 5920, downside targets in the 5k to 4 k region attract. TRADING VIEW: In mid-march I opened a long position in Bitcoin avg 9100 to reflect my bullish longer term view. Stops are placed below 5920. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of April 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 9
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