Investment-grade and high-yield credit interest rates, spreads, defaults and liquidity keep arry lpha iquidity anaged September 2016
Macro outlook Continued muddle-through global economic growth, no recession FOMC raises rates once, U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, 1%-1.75% range No interest rate changes in Canada, continued QE in Eurozone, Japan, U.K. Global inflation and inflation expectations remain tempered Investment-grade corporate credit spreads range-bound providing attractive carry Market volatility to remain high Key market risks: U.S. elections, Italian Constitutional Referendum, European elections, Chinese growth, energy and commodity prices, post-brexit negotiations Key credit market risks: commodity prices, recession, spike in interest rates, USD strength
Attractive risk-adjusted return Carry: attractive carry in a low yield environment Alpha: excess return from deleveraging plays and new issue concessions Liquidity: global exposure and diversification provides enhanced liquidity Managed: increasing volatility risk demands active management and effective hedging tools
Does this look like a bear market? US 10yr Yield (%) 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: Bloomberg
Interest rates stay lower for longer High levels of government indebtedness Modest global economic growth Low inflation energy / wages Abundance of idle industrial capacity Continued QE Europe, Japan, U.K., China? Fed is normalizing interest rates not a tightening cycle
IG Credit Spreads (bps) Investment-grade spreads are below historic average 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 Source: BAML C0A0 Index S&P Declines >15% IG Spread Avg. IG Spread
Credit fundamentals on a weakening trend
Credit fundamentals deteriorating but look closer
Leverage rising for high-rated companies
Leverage should stabilize
Profit margins remain strong
Technicals Trump Fundamentals Central bank buying of corporate bonds ECB, BOE Inflows into bonds funds strong - $96.5bn YTD in the U.S. Heavy buying by offshore accounts due to negative yields Aggregate new issue supply IG/HY/EM lower year-over-year
Foreign demand growing at double-digit rates
The Case for Credit Offers attractive carry in a low/negative yield environment Technicals will continue to dominate demand Manage credit fundamentals Portfolio construction Active management Hedge strategies Investment grade to return 3-4%
Fund performance: Since Inception Fund YTD 3 month 6 month Since inception Inception Date CI Investment Grade Bond Fund (Class F) 6.71% 3.23% 6.43% 7.33% 12/31/14 FTSE TMX Corporate Index 4.77% 2.69% 4.75% 4.76% Source: RBC Investor and Treasury Services, Jul 2016, FTSE TMX. Net of management fees.
Thank you Thank you Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. CI Investments, the CI Investments design, are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. This communication is published by CI as a general source of information and is not intended to provide personal legal, accounting, investment or tax advice. Facts and data provided by CI and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted; however, CI cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. This report may contain forward-looking statements about the fund, its future performance, strategies or prospects, and possible future fund action. These statements reflect the portfolio managers current beliefs and are based on information currently available to them. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement, including economic, political and market changes and other developments. CI and its affiliates will not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this presentation. FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS
Stable Returns in a Volatile World Barry Allan Marret Asset Management September 2016
Macro outlook - 2017 18 Volatility to rise but don t see recession or bear market U.S. Treasury yields have room to fall with inflation could go below 1% - 10 year U.S. Dollar range bound which is positive for earnings and stocks Growth will continue to disappoint and stay in Muddle Through category Safe yield hard to find and requires creativity Beware of trading one risk for another
High-yield spreads and default rates % High-yield spreads remain around historical averages and default rates to moderate in 2017. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Spread LT Avg Spread BofA-ML US HY Default Rate **As of July 31, 2016 Date: As of August 23, 2016, Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Current Market Yield +639bps Current Spread +514bps Current Default Rate** 6.3%
Yield (%) Bond yields are expected to be range bound with risk to downside 16.00 14.00 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Long Period of Stability Projected 0.00 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Yale University, Shiller Year
Total Return (%) Total Return (%) Total Return (%) Total Return (%) Total Return(%) Total Return (%) High yield has historically been less interest rate sensitive Periods when 10Yr Treasury has risen >100bps 15% 5% 11/01-03/02 UST: +123bp HY: -121bp 15% 5% 03/04-05/04 UST: +109bp HY: +99bp 15% 5% 10/10-02/11 UST: +132bp HY: -55bp -5% -5% -5% -15% 10Yr Yield H0A0-15% 10Yr Yield H0A0-15% 10Yr Yield H0A0 15% 5% -5% -15% 06/03-09/03 UST: +150bp HY: +19bp 10Yr Yield H0A0 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch (H0A0, GA10), as of June 24, 2013 01/09-06/09 UST: +185bp HY: -655bp 10Yr Yield H0A0 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 05/13-06/13 UST: +92bp HY: +170bp 10Yr Yield H0A0 21
Inflation is the key to markets in the next few years Source: GaveKal Capital
Summary Volatility to be volatile Likely 2 meaningful risk selloffs No recession or bear market but rate structure is stretching valuations Fed probably can t raise rates any meaningful amount Maintain defensive stance except after selloffs for shorter periods Trading market continues High-yield default rates to moderate after resources related rise in 2016 High yield to return 4-6% with good trading opportunities
Fund positioning, July 31, 2016 Fund Cash Governmen t bonds Investment - grade bonds High-yield bonds Equities Average duration Average credit quality CI Investment Grade Bond Fund 9.5% 15.6% 74.4% 0.5% - 6.0 BBB Marret Short Duration High Yield 20.7% - 0.5% 78.7% - 0.8 BB Marret High Yield Bond 19.7% - 0..5% 79.0% - 1.6 BB Marret Strategic Yield 21.8% - - 32.2% 42.9% 5.3 B Source: Marret Asset Management
Fund performance: July 31, 2016 Fund YTD 3 month 6 month 1 year Since inception Inception Date CI Investment Grade Bond Fund 6.4% 3.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.6% 12/30/14 Marret Short Duration High Yield 2.2% 1.2% 3.4% 0.1% 1.4% 02/14/14 Marret High Yield Bond 6.0% 2.7% 8.8% -0.1% 0.6% 02/14/14 Marret Strategic Yield 9.4% 3.5% 13.6% 5.4% 2.4% 02/14/14 Source: RBC Investor and Treasury Services, July 2016
Thank You Thank you Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. CI Investments, the CI Investments design, are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. This communication is published by CI as a general source of information and is not intended to provide personal legal, accounting, investment or tax advice. Facts and data provided by CI and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted; however, CI cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. This report may contain forward-looking statements about the fund, its future performance, strategies or prospects, and possible future fund action. These statements reflect the portfolio managers current beliefs and are based on information currently available to them. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement, including economic, political and market changes and other developments. CI and its affiliates will not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this presentation. FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS