Q3/17. Quarterly Market Commentary. Highlights. Canadian & U.S. Fixed Income. U.S. Equities. International Equities.

Transcription

1 Q3/17 Highlights Canadian & U.S. Fixed Income The Canadian government bond index declined during Q3/17, underperforming the U.S. government bond index as the Canadian index fell 2.02% Q/Q, compared to a 0.38% Q/Q advance for U.S. Government bond yields have drifted higher this year in adjustments to seemingly coordinated hawkish central bank policy shifts. Canadian and U.S. investment grade corporate bond indices registered returns of negative 1.34% Q/Q and positive 2.04% Q/Q, respectively in Q3/17. Credit markets continued to hold up very well, with investment grade (IG) credit spreads trending tighter (56 bps) during the quarter, touching levels last seen in Q4/14. High yield credit spreads have also trended steadily narrower during the quarter, resulting in a gain of 3.20% Q/Q for the sector. U.S. Equities U.S. equities delivered a positive return in Q3/17. The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) gained 4.48% Q/Q, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (Dow) rose 5.58% Q/Q and the NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQ) returned 6.06% Q/Q. Ten of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 delivered a positive return during the quarter. Large-cap U.S. equities outperformed mid-cap stocks but underperformed small cap stocks, and U.S. growth stocks outperformed their value counterparts. International Equities Most major developed international markets rose in Q3/17. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 7.72% Q/Q, outperforming most developed markets. Canadian Equities The Canadian equity market was stronger in Q3/17 as the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) returned 3.68%. Seven out of the eleven sectors posted a positive return. The, and Financials sectors, which are the largest sectors in the index, have rebounded after a slow start in the first half of the year. Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and mid-cap Canadian equities, and Canadian growth stocks outperformed value stocks during the quarter.

2 Canadian & U.S. Fixed Income Money Market/Bond Issues and Indices Q3/17 Return YTD Return Canadian Yields U.S. Yields 91-Day Treasury Bill % 1.04% 2-Year Government Bonds % 1.48% 5-Year Government Bonds % 1.94% 10-Year Government Bonds % 2.33% 30-Year Government Bonds % 2.86% FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index -1.84% 0.48% 2.51% -- FTSE TMX Canada All Government Bond Index -2.02% 0.10% 2.32% -- FTSE TMX Canada All Corporate Bond Index -1.34% 1.49% 3.01% -- FTSE TMX Canada Real Return Bond Index -3.02% -2.96% 0.72% -- BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Master Index US$ 2.04% 7.05% % BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index US$ 3.20% 7.80% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at September 30, Index returns are reported on a total return basis. The Canadian government bond index declined during Q3/17, underperforming the U.S. government bond index as the Canadian index fell 2.02% Q/Q, compared to a 0.38% Q/Q advance for U.S. Treasuries as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index. Government bond yields have drifted higher this year in adjustments to seemingly coordinated hawkish central bank policy shifts. In late June, at the European Central Bank s Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, the heads of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England appeared to communicate a pivot, joining peers at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Norges Bank. The BoC, in particular, caught markets by surprise, signaling a shift on June 12 th, followed by a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the July 12 th policy announcement date and another surprise 25 bps hike on September 6 th. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), on September 20, 2017, maintained the target federal funds rate a range of 1.00% to 1.25%, with a target effective rate of 1.125%. In conjunction, the FOMC also left unchanged the interest rate paid on required and excess reserves at 1.25%, the discount rate at 1.75%, and the overnight reverse repurchase offering rate at 1.00%. Canada Treasury Yield Curve U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Today 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago Today 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at September 30,

3 The Fed has hiked policy rates four times since 2006, 25 bps each in December 2015, December 2016, March 2017 and June In their September projections, the Fed is still forecasting one more rate hike in 2017 and three in The median dot projection of FOMC members remained unchanged for both 2017 and 2018, but the 2019 dot fell for a second time and now suggests a year-end rate of 2.688% from 2.875% previously (the long run median was lowered to 2.75% from 3.0%). The FOMC will begin normalizing the Federal Reserve s balance sheet later in October, having outlined a plan in June to gradually reduce its $4.5 trillion in holdings by tapering reinvestments in its Treasury and mortgaged-backed securities (MBS) portfolio. The Fed expects to cap the balance sheet runoff at $10 billion per month initially ($6 billion for Treasuries and $4 billion for MBS) before raising it to $50 billion per month within a year with the same 60/40 split between Treasuries and MBS. The total equates to $300 billion in the first year, and $600 billion at the cap. The amounts are not expected to have a material impact on the bond market. Yield curves in North America continued to flatten in Q3/17. The U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve bear flattened, with yields on longer dated securities rising less than those at the front end of the curve. The 2-year UST bond yielded 1.48% at the end of September, as 2-year yields rose 10 bps during the quarter. The 10-year UST yielded 2.33% at the end of Q3/17, as yields rose 3 bps during the quarter. The Canadian yield curve flattened by 8 bps in Q3/17, in response to more forward Bank of Canada rate hike expectations. The 2-year Government of Canada bond yielded 1.52% at the end of September, up 42 bps from the end of Q2/17. The 10-year Government of Canada bond yielded 2.10% at the end of Q3/17, as its yield rose 34 bps during the quarter. On September 6, 2017, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised forecasters by raising the overnight target rate for a second consecutive meeting, by 25 bps to 1.00%. The Bank rate was correspondingly lifted by 25 bps to 1.25% and the deposit rate to 0.75%. The next scheduled date for announcing the BoC overnight rate target is October 25, With each fixed announcement date being live and data dependent, there is currently uncertainty as to whether there will be another BoC rate hike this year and the pace of hikes in the future. Canadian and U.S. investment grade corporate bond indices registered returns of negative 1.34% Q/Q and positive 2.04% Q/Q, respectively in Q3/17. Credit markets continued to hold up very well, with investment grade (IG) credit spreads trending tighter (56 bps) during the quarter, touching levels last seen in Q4/14. High yield credit spreads have also trended steadily narrower during the quarter, resulting in a gain of 3.20% Q/Q for the sector. Canadian Equities Indices Q3/17 Return YTD Return S&P/TSX Composite Index 3.68% 4.45% S&P/TSX 60 Index 3.98% 4.62% S&P/TSX Cdn MidCap Index 2.81% 3.98% S&P/TSX Cdn SmallCap Index 2.36% -1.85% S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index 0.56% 6.75% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at September 30, Total index values and returns, except the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index which is reported on a price return basis. The Canadian economy continued its strong momentum. Robust growth of 3.7% (annualized) in the first quarter was followed by an impressive 4.5% expansion in the April-June period. The higher frequency data again point to an economy likely to maintain above-trend growth in the second half of the year. TD Economics has increased its Canadian s GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 2.8% previously. The stronger-than-expected economic growth has supported the Bank of Canada s decision to raise interest rates twice in the third quarter. However, economies can only grow above their natural rate for so long, and Canada is no exception. Growth is expected to moderate to a still-respectable 2.1% in 2018 and decelerate to roughly its trend pace, growing 1.7% in

4 The Canadian equity market was stronger in Q3/17 as the S&P/TSX returned 3.68%. The, and Financials sectors, which are the largest sectors in the index have rebounded after a slow start in the first half of the year. These strong sector performances helped to offset weaknesses in the, and Healthcare. The Healthcare sector, which only accounted for 0.61% of the Canadian Equity markets, was the largest laggard, declining 10.30%, primarily due to the poor performance of Valeant Pharmaceutical. The posted negative returns of 2.65% following Amazon s acquisition of Whole Foods, which put further pressure on supermarket chains to step up their game in an already competitive environment. The sector was also weaker as the rising interest costs followed by the Bank of Canada s rates hikes have put additional financing burdens for companies in this sector. Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and mid-cap Canadian equities. The large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index returned 3.98% Q/Q compared to 2.81% Q/Q for the S&P/TSX Canadian Mid Cap Index and 2.36% Q/Q for the S&P/TSX Canadian Small Cap Index. Canadian growth stocks, as measured by the Morningstar Canada Target Momentum Index, advanced 6.23% Q/Q and outperformed the comparable value benchmark, the Morningstar Canada Target Value Index, which gained 5.81% Q/Q. The S&P/TSX outperformed the S&P 500 in Canadian dollar terms after underperforming for three consecutive quarters. Canadian preferred shares total return was 1.73% during the third quarter, of which 56 bps were due to price appreciation and the remaining 1.17% from dividends. Two rate hikes by the Bank of Canada and a contraction in market spreads helped lift Fixed and floating Rate-Resets 1.44% and 5.18%% respectively. The two segments constitute 71% of Canadian preferred shares by market value. Perpetual preferred shares, which decline in response to rising interest rates, closed the quarter 2.56% lower as the 30 Year Government of Canada Bond Yield rose 33 bps during the quarter. The drop in prices of perpetuals was cushioned by a tightening spread of the current yield over the 30 Year Government of Canada Bond Yield during the quarter. Floaters and Fixed-Floaters were the best performers, closing the quarter up 9.51% and 6.93% respectively. S&P/TSX Sector Returns (%) Q3/ YTD S&P/TSX Composite Financials S&P/TSX Composite Financials Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as at September 30, Index Total Returns. 4

5 U.S. Equities Indices Q3/17 Return Q3/17 Return (C$) YTD Return YTD Return (C$) Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 5.58% 1.46% 15.45% 7.16% S&P 500 Index 4.48% 0.40% 14.24% 6.04% S&P 400 Index 3.22% -0.81% 9.40% 1.55% NASDAQ Composite Index 6.06% 1.92% 21.67% 12.93% Russell 2000 Index 5.67% 1.54% 10.94% 2.97% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at September 30, Total index values and returns. Index returns calculated in local currency and C$. U.S. equities delivered a positive return in Q3/17. The S&P 500 gained 4.48% Q/Q, the Dow rose 5.58% Q/Q and the NASDAQ returned 6.06% Q/Q. However, the indices posted much lower returns (S&P 500: 0.40%, Dow: 1.46% and NASDAQ: 1.92%) in Canadian dollar term on the back of a stronger CAD. Ten of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 delivered a positive return during the quarter, with gains led by the Financials, and sectors. During the third quarter, the Dow Jones index repeatedly hit new highs as positive economic data and strong corporate earnings outweighed the negative headlines related to several personnel changes in the Trump s administration. The labor market was very healthy as the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%, which is near full employment. While the Federal Reserve did not raise the benchmark interest rate during its September meeting, they again stressed the need for a rate hike in December. The Federal Reserve will also start cutting its US$4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially by just US$10 billion per month and also signaled that the normalisation process would be gradual and predictable. S&P 500 Sector Returns (%) Q3/ YTD S&P 500 Financials S&P Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as at September 30, Index Total Returns. 5

6 The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. large-cap equities, rose 4.48% Q/Q but underperformed small-cap U.S. stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, which advanced 5.67% Q/Q. However, the S&P 500 outperformed the S&P 400 Index a measure of U.S. mid-cap stocks, which rose 3.22% Q/Q. U.S. value stocks, as measured by the Morningstar U.S. Value Index, gained 4.48% Q/Q, and underperformed the comparable growth benchmark, the Morningstar U.S. Growth Index, which registered a total return of 5.33% Q/Q. International Equities Indices Q3/17 Return Q3/17 Return (C$) YTD Return YTD Return (C$) FTSE 100 Index 1.82% 0.76% 6.59% 7.35% DAX Index 4.09% 3.44% 11.74% 16.06% CAC 40 Index 4.28% 3.64% 12.74% 17.10% MSCI Europe (LC) Index 3.49% 2.33% 12.23% 14.58% Nikkei 225 Stock Average 2.34% -1.89% 8.29% 4.10% MSCI Emerging Markets Free (LC) Index 7.72% 3.68% 23.88% 18.60% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at September 30, Total index values and returns. Index returns calculated in local currency and C$. Most major developed international markets rose in Q3/17. In Europe, economic growth remains strong and forward-looking indicators such as producer and consumer confidence remain at elevated levels. On the earnings front, eurozone companies remain on track to deliver 10-15% growth for the year. Investors were also comfortable with positive political development following President Emmanuel Macron s victory in France and Chancellor Angela Merkel s reappointment in Germany. With fading political risks and improving earnings, the European equities appeared relatively attractive to global investors, resulting in continued net capital inflows in the region. The U.K. s FTSE 100 Index gained 1.82% Q/Q as the UK economy continued to post modest growth and the country s unemployment rate fell to 4.5% its lowest level since France s CAC 40 Index gained 4.28% Q/Q and Germany s DAX Index rose 4.09% Q/Q. The European Central Bank (ECB) in September had reiterated its intention to wind down easy money policies, but the bank has also postponed a decision on when it would actually do so until Q4/17. The ECB has been exceedingly cautious about ending the emergency measures that helped prevent the euro from self-destructing after the global financial meltdown in Japan s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.34% Q/Q in Q3/17. Japan s economy is currently enjoying its third-longest period of expansion in postwar history (55 months). GDP grew at a 2.5% Q/Q annualized pace during the April-June quarter, driven by solid consumption and private capital expenditure growth. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan continues to be very accommodative, and unlike other central banks has shown no indication of considering a shift in stance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 7.72% Q/Q, again outperforming most developed markets. The South Korean KOSPI Index was relatively flat and the Taiwan Stock Exchange lost 0.10% Q/Q. The Chinese Shanghai Composite PR Index returned 4.90% Q/Q as investors were optimistic about the country s stable economic growth. The Indian Nifty 50 Index returned 3.24% Q/Q despite escalated geopolitical tensions between India and China over a border dispute. 6

7 The information contained herein has been provided by TD Asset Management Inc. and is for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual s objectives and risk tolerance. Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements ( FLS ) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as expects, anticipates, intends, believes, estimates and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. Index returns are shown for comparative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and their returns do not include any sales charges or fees as such costs would lower performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee ( WAAC ) comprises a diverse group of TD investment professionals. The WAAC s mandate is to issue quarterly market outlooks that provide its concise view of the upcoming market situation for the next six to eighteen months. The WAAC s guidance is not a guarantee of future results and actual market events may differ materially from those set out expressly or by implication in the WAAC s quarterly market outlook. The WAAC market outlook is not a substitute for investment advice. FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc FTSE is a trade mark of FTSE International Ltd and is used under licence. TMX is a trade mark of TSX Inc. and is used under licence. All rights in the FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. s indices and / or FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. s ratings vest in FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in such indices and / or ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. s data is permitted without FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. s express written consent. Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. TD Asset Management Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. 7