Metropolitan Washington Area Key Economic & Demographic Indicators Arlington County Community Facilities Study March 11, 2015 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President of Research National Housing Conference
KEY NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 2
3 The rate of household formation is beginning to pick up as a result of the improving economy. 2,500 Month-over-the-year Household Growth U.S. 2,000 Thousands of households 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey
4 Looking ahead, the population will become more racially diverse young people are much more diverse than older people. Racial Make-up of Different Age Groups: 2012 U.S. Under 5 51% 15% 4% 25% 5-17 55% 14% 4% 22% White Age Group 18-35 35-49 50-64 58% 64% 73% 13% 5% 12% 5% 11% 20% 16% 4% 10% Black Asian Hispanic 2+ Races Other races 65-74 79% 9% 4% 7% 75+ 85% 7% 2% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: From Diversity Explosion 2014, William Frey
5 Over the next 3 decades, the white population will actually decline in total numbers because of lower fertility rates. Thousands of people 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 Population by Race/Ethnicity: 2015 and 2045 U.S. 2015 2045 25,000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections
6 The decisions and opportunities of Boomers and Millennials will have important labor market and housing market implications. Population by Age Group U.S. Thousands of people 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Younger Millennials 43.1 million Older Millennials 41.2 million Gen X 39.9 million Younger Boomers 44.0 million Older Boomers 38.0 million 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
7 Longer life expectancies will mean dramatic growth in the nation s older population over the next 3 decades. 100,000 Population by Age Group: 2015 and 2045 U.S. Thousands of people 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 2015 2045 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections
OVERVIEW OF THE WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMY 8
9 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Nov 2014 Total 178 (000s) Total 243 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. -48-34 -23-23 -8-10 -12-10 -7-4 0 2 4 12 11 25 39 44 49 58-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 Federal Government Jobs in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2002-2014 (000s) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Annual Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar 2008 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Nov-14 Total: 365.7
Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY 1980-2014 11 $ billions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 TOTAL = $1,164.9 Billion 79.8 76.3 69.1 71.2 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov, GMU CRA
12 Professional & Business Services Jobs in the Washington Metropolitan Area Annual Data Annual Month over Year (000s) 30 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar 2008 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Nov-14 Total: 708.5
Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area 13 (000s) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2/2010-11/2014 Job Change (left axis) $94.2 44.1 Professional & Business Services 48.6 $51.4 Education & Health Services 2013 Wage (right axis) 58.1 $24.1 Leisure & Hospitality (000s of 2013 $s $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area 14 Jurisdiction Median HH Income 2013* Change from 2009* District (DC) $ 67,572 $2,919 Frederick Cty 84,308 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,052 - $4,060 Arlington County 102,501 - $1,675 Fairfax County 111,079 - $249 Loudoun County 116,848 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $ 90,149 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS 1-Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 2013 dollars
HOW ECONOMICS & DEMOGRAPHICS WILL SHAPE HOUSING DEMAND IN THE REGION 15
How Demographics Will Shape Housing Demand in 2015 16 Millennials: The First-Time Homebuyers Gen X: The Move-Uppers Baby Boomers: The Downsizers
17 Homeownership Has Declined Across Age Groups, Except Seniors 80% Homeownership Rate by Age Category Washington MSA 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2000 2013 20% 10% 0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age of Head of Household Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census SF3 and American Community Survey 1-year file
18 Millennials: The First-Time Homebuyer Time is the key 1. Wages 2. Marriage 3. Homeownership Preferences may not be substantially different from prior generations Housing options may be limited
19 Millennials Drove Population Growth in DC and Arlington 40% Percent Population Change, 2000-2012 Total 25-34 year olds 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census SF3 and American Community Survey 1-year file
20 But There Are Shifts to the Suburbs 60% 25 to 34 Year Old Share of Population Growth 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DC Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Prince William Montgomery Loudoun Stafford 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
21 Gen X: The Move-Uppers Inclination to move is contingent Interest rates Equity More likely to purchase new construction
22 Interest Rates are Still Very Low Conventional, Conforming 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Freddie Mac
23 Wealth Losses Hit Gen X ers Disproportionately Hard Total Decline in Median Wealth by Age of Household Head, US, 2000-2010 Younger than 35 - $5,270 35-44 - $56,029 45-54 - $49,793 55-64 - $51,040 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Source: Pew Research Center, tabulations of Survey of Consumer Finances data
24 Baby Boomers: The Downsizers Large wave of retirees Most live in suburbs Many will stay in the region Diversity of housing preferences
25 Seniors Are a Growing Share of Our Population 1,200 1,000 Population (000s) 800 600 400 200 0 Population Age 65+ Washington MSA 2000 2010 2020 2030 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: IHS Global Insight
26 Greatest Number of Boomer Households in Fairfax & Montgomery Counties 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Households Headed by a Person Age 60+: 2010 Washington MSA 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Households % of Total 0 Inner Core Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs Outer Outer Suburbs 0% Source: 2010 Census, SF1
Will There Be Sufficient Housing to Meet Demand for All Cohorts? 27 Lower-priced homes Homeownership and rental housing in the suburbs Accessible housing
28 Population Growth Outpaced Residential Construction During the Downturn Annual Building Permits 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Building Permit Activity Washington DC MSA 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Population Change per Building Permit Issued Source: Census Bureau
29 New Residential Construction to Meet Future Needs and Past Deficit The Washington MSA will need 39,000 new housing units each year between 2015 and 2019 31,000 to meet annual population growth 8,000 to make up deficit (assumed deficit made up over 10 years)
30 Where New Homes are Built Will Start to Shift 60% 50% 40% Share of Building Permits by Area Washington MSA Inner Core Outer Suburbs Inner Suburbs Outer Outer Suburbs 30% 20% 10% 0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Census Bureau
Single-Family Home Construction Still Hasn t Recovered 31 Units 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Building Permits by Type Washington MSA Single-Family (Attached/Detached) Multi-Family 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percent Multi-Family Source: Census Bureau
32 Key Takeaways for 2015 Housing market activity will pick up as inventories rise First-time homebuyers will be key driver Growing demand for single-family homes. But smaller homes, lower price points The suburbs are not dead and, in fact, are poised for a rebirth. While demand will be there in 2015, supply won t catch up until 2016.
33 Contact Lisa Sturtevant Center for Housing Policy and National Housing Conference Lsturtevant@nhc.org 202-466-2121 x234 www.nhc.org www.housingpolicy.org