Platinum 2003 Interim Review Johnson Matthey 18th November 2003
Platinum Demand edges up to 6.59 million oz Purchases for jewellery in China & Japan drop Diesel sales drive record autocatalyst demand Output rises in S. Africa but falls in N. America Market deficit reduced but remains substantial Funds contribute to price strength
Platinum Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20
European Demand for Platinum in Autocatalysts 1999-2003 '000 oz 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Gasoline Diesel 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Autocatalyst demand - Japan Tokyo HDD retrofit boosts Pt demand
Platinum Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14
Platinum Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14 Jewellery 2,820 2,450 (13)
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999-2003 million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 China 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
SGE: growth in platinum trade 11 Aug 14 Nov 2003 Kg 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Aug 11 Aug 18 Aug 25 Sep 1 Sep 8 Sep 15 Sep22 Sep 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov-10
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999-2003 million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Japan China 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1998-2002 million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Europe etc N. America Japan China 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Platinum Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14 Jewellery 2,820 2,450 (13) Industrial 1,590 1,600 1 Investment 80 10 (88) TOTAL DEMAND 6,560 6,590 0.5
Platinum Supply by Region 000 oz 2002 2003 % change South Africa 4,450 4,650 4.5
Expanding South African Supply million oz 5 4 3 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Anglo Platinum Impala Lonmin Others
Platinum Supply by Region 000 oz 2002 2003 % change South Africa 4,450 4,650 4.5 Russia 980 950 (3) Others 540 510 (5.5) TOTAL SUPPLY 5,970 6,110 2
Platinum Supply and Demand 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Demand 6,560 6,590 0.5 Supply 5,970 6,110 2 Movements in Stocks (590) (480)
Platinum Price $ per oz 800 January October 2003 750 700 650 600 550 J F M A M J J A S O Platinum - Av. London fix
Platinum NYMEX speculative longs versus price, Jan Oct 2003 000 oz $ per oz 500 760 400 740 720 300 700 680 200 660 640 100 620 600 0 580 07- Jan 04- Feb 04- Mar 01- Apr 29- Apr 27- May 24- Jun 22- Jul 19- Aug 16- Sep 14- Oct Net speculative position 5-day moving av. price
Palladium Demand recovers to 5.65 million oz Much less use of inventories by auto companies Stocks no longer affecting electronics sector Russian sales rebound to 2.95 million oz Surplus continues to grow
Palladium Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19
Palladium Autocatalyst Demand 1999-2003 million oz 7 6 5 4 3 Purchases Use 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Palladium Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19 recovery (370) (410) 11 Electronics 750 985 31
Palladium Demand by Application Electronics Thrifting Miniaturisation Substitution
Palladium Demand by Application 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19 recovery (370) (410) 11 Electronics 750 985 31 Dental and Other 1,380 1,405 2 TOTAL DEMAND 4,850 5,650 16.5
Palladium Supply by Region 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Russia 1,930 2,950 53
Russian Palladium Sales 1999-2003 million oz 6 5 4 3 2 Russian sales Mine output 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Palladium Supply by Region 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Russia 1,930 2,950 53 South Africa 2,160 2,280 5.5 North America 990 850 (14) Others 170 240 41 TOTAL SUPPLY 5,250 6,320 20
Palladium Supply and Demand 000 oz 2002 2003 % change Demand 4,850 5,650 16.5 Supply 5,250 6,320 20 Movements in Stocks 400 670
Palladium Price $ per oz 300 January October 2003 250 200 150 100 J F M A M J J A S O Palladium - Av. London fix
Palladium NYMEX speculative longs versus price, Jan Oct 2003 000 oz $ per oz 500 280 400 260 240 300 220 200 200 180 160 100 140 120 0 100 07- Jan 04- Feb 04- Mar 01- Apr 29- Apr 27- May 24- Jun 22- Jul 19- Aug 16- Sep 14- Oct Net speculative position 5-day moving av. price
Key Issues Auto industry diesel car sales emissions legislation HDD retrofitting changing pgm ratios & thrifting
Key Issues Auto industry Chinese jewellery demand South African mine expansions PGM prices versus rand strength
rand:$ 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Monthly average rand:$ rate Jan 2000 Sept 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average $:rand exchange rate
Indexed average PGM Basket Price rand:$ Jan 2000 Sept 2003 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average indexed rand basket price - total all current mines Average rand:$ exchange rate
Indexed average PGM Basket Price rand:$ Jan 2000 Sept 2003 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average indexed rand basket price - total all current mines Average indexed rand basket price - UG2, central E. Bvd Average rand:$ exchange rate 120 110 100 90 80 70 60
Key Issues Auto industry Chinese jewellery demand South African mine expansions PGM prices versus Rand strength & inflation Legislative programme
Key Issues Auto industry Chinese jewellery demand South African mine expansions Palladium stocks Fund activity
Forecast Prices For The $ per oz Next 6 Months 900 800 700 $700 $820 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Platinum
Forecast Prices For The $ per oz Next 6 Months 900 800 700 $700 $820 600 500 400 300 200 100 $140 $220 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Platinum Palladium
Platinum 2003 Interim Review Johnson Matthey 18th November 2003