France Economic Update QNB Group September 2014
France Overview France is the ninth largest economy in the world on a purchasing power parity basis and service-oriented; high indebtedness and lack of reforms are delaying the recovery following the Eurozone crisis, leading to high unemployment Overview Data (2013) GDP (bn USD) 2,808 % GDP related to Services 70.4 Real GDP Growth (%) 0.3 Per Capita GDP (k USD, PPP) 35.8 CPI Inflation (%) 1.0 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 FX Reserves (months of import cover, end-2013) 1.9 Exchange Rate (EUR:USD, period average 2013) 1.33 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 Government Debt (% of GDP) 91.8 Broad Money Growth (%) 0.3 Banking Assets (% of GDP) 372.9 3-Month Interbank Rate (%) 0.2 Population (m) 64.3 Population aged 15-64 Years (% share) 63.9 Population growth (%) 0.6 Unemployment (%) 10.3 Religion (% Muslim) 7.5 Doing Business Rank out of 189 38 Competitiveness Rank out of 148 23 Moody s Rating (Long-term FX debt) Aa1 Nominal GDP by sector (2013) Agriculture Industry Services Real Estate & Other Services Government & Education Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Transport & Communication Construction 5.4% Finance Hotels & Restaurants Other Total 25.7% 20.6% 10% 10.2% 9.4% 8.3% 4.0% 2.4% 2009-13 14.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 5.0% 4.0% 4.1% 2.2% Sources: Bloomberg,, CIA World Factbook, European Central Bank (ECB), Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Economic Forum and QNB Group analysis 2
France GDP Growth The recovery in real GDP growth is expected to remain slow despite the rise in investment spending; unemployment is projected to remain in double digits over the medium term while population is forecast to grow slowly Real GDP Growth (%) Investment (bn USD) 3.8% 1.4 1.7 66.0 66.7 7 73.3 76.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 Unemployment (%) Population (m) 0.5% 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.2 1 63.9 64.3 64.6 65.0 65.3 Sources: IMF, United Nations and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 3
France Balance of Payments The current account deficit is expected to narrow with the economic recovery as the EUR appreciates; French reserves are projected to decline moderately while trade is mostly with European partners Current Account (% of GDP) Exchange Rate (EUR:USD) -0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 Exports (RHS) Balance (LHS) -1.3-1.5-2.1 Imports (RHS) -0.5-0.9 3 29.0 28.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.39 1.41-2.5 27.0 1.0 International Reserves (months of import cover) Directions of Trade (2013) 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 Exports Imports Destination (bn USD) Source (bn USD) Germany 94.2 Germany 130.5 Belgium 44.6 Belgium 75.9 Italy 40.8 Italy 50.5 United Kingdom 39.9 Netherlands 49.7 Spain 39.0 Spain 45.2 Sources: Banque de France (BdF), Federal Reserve Board (FRB), IMF, INSEE and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 4
France Fiscal Policy The aim of fiscal policy is to reduce the deficit and contain public debt; the deficit is expected to gradually decline partly through cuts in current expenditures; public debt is therefore projected to stabilize at around 95% of GDP by 2015 Government Budget (% of GDP) Government Expenditure (% of GDP) 0-2 -4 Expenditure (RHS) Balance (LHS) -4.2-4.9-4.0 Revenue (RHS) -3.4-2.7 60 55 50 Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure 56.7 57.2 56.9 55.9 55.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.4 53.6 54.0 53.5 52.7 51.7-6 45 Public Debt (% of GDP) Fiscal Policy 96 94.3 95.1 95.0 94 91.8 92 90 88.7 88 86 84 Fiscal policy aims to reduce the deficit, which peaked at the height of the financial crisis and has been slowly brought under control The fiscal deficit is projected to gradually decline to around 2% by 2016 as the government reduces its current expenditure Public debt is expected to peak to around 95% of GDP in 2015 on lower projected fiscal deficits Sources: IMF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 5
France Monetary Policy Monetary policy set by the European Central Bank (ECB) aims to control inflation within a band close to 2%; interest rates and broad money growth has been declining on a slow Eurozone recovery and very low inflation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Inflation (%) 2.2 Inflation Target Inflation 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 Interbank Interest Rates (%, 3-Month) 1.5 France US 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Broad Money Change (%) Monetary Policy -4.2 6.5 2.3 2.1 0.3 Monetary policy (set for the whole Eurozone by the ECB) targets below but close to 2% inflation through the control of short-term interest rates Inflation has been very low in the Eurozone threatening a Japanese-style deflation but is expected to pick up slightly on recent ECB monetary easing Broad money shrank during the financial crisis and its recovery remains subdued on a slow recovery and low inflation Sources: BdF, ECB, IMF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 6
France Banking Sector Overview Asset penetration is high at 373% of GDP and banking assets have been growing slowly since the crisis on deleveraging; banking indicators have been weak on the back of the Euro crisis, a slow economic recovery, deleveraging and low inflation Assets to GDP (2012) Asset (tn USD) Loans (tn USD) Bahrain UK France Lebanon China Singapore Switzerland Jordan Iran Morocco UAE Qatar S Africa Turkey Kuwait Tunisia Egypt Libya India Oman Saudi Arabia Mauritania Indonesia Iraq Yemen Nigeria Sudan Syria S Sudan 586% 457% 373% 351% 268% 261% 218% 178% 136% 134% 132% 124% 113% 111% 100% 98% 96% 88% 78% 73% 67% 55% 55% 46% 37% 30% 25% 23% 15% 0.7% 10.5 10.7 11.5 11.1 10.8 Deposits (tn USD) 2.4% 6.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 2010 2011 2012 2013 Analysis 3.0% 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 31.6 Profits 1 (bn USD) 60.2 14.5% 44.3 33.0 54.2 The ECB has recently announced a new program of targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) to encourage lending to the real economy 1 Implied estimates from average assets and return on average assets Sources: : BdF, FRB and QNB Group analysis 7
France Banking Sector Ratios The loan to deposit ratio has been flat on deleveraging; profitability remains low as banks boost their capital base to comply with Basel III guidelines; non-performing loans remain moderate on a weak economic environment Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) Return on Average Assets and Equity (%) 15.0 12.0 ROAE ROAA 81.3 81.2 83.3 85.1 85.1 1 5.0 7.2 8.3 6.0 9.4 Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 Non-Performing Loans (% of Gross Loans) 16.0 15.0 14.0 14.5 15.2 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 13.0 12.7 12.0 12.4 Basel III Guideline 12.3 for 2019 11.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.4 Sources: FRB, GSFR, and QNB Group analysis 8
France Banking Sector Competitor Analysis The top 5 banks account for 57.7% of total banking assets; profitability is low on continued deleveraging; non-performing loans continue to be high at BNP and Société Générale Market Share by Assets Financials for Top 5 Banks (2013)* Net Income Equity Return on Equity Assets Return on Assets Loan to Deposit Ratio Non- Performing Loans (%) (bn USD) (bn USD) (%) (bn USD) (%) (%) (%) BNP Paribas 16.0 7.5 125.7 5.9 2,482.6 0.3 116.3 7.1 Crédit Agricole 15.2 7.6 112.6 7.0 2,353.2 0.3 114.5 3.8 Société Générale 11.0 3.5 74.6 4.7 1,703.6 0.2 112.2 7.7 BPCE Group 1 4.1 80.2 5.3 1,549.5 0.3 129.2 4.1 Credit Mutuel 5.5 2.9 50.7 6.1 851.3 0.4 127.1 4.1 Analysis There are 275 operational banks with the top 5 being fairly dominant, accounting for 57.7% of total market assets Profitability in the top 5 banks is low with ROE averaging 5.8% and ROA averaging 0.3% The loan to deposit ratio is high at over 110% for all the top 5 banks, suggesting heavy reliance on wholesale banking The ratio of non-performing loans is mixed across the top 5 banks, ranging from 3.8% to 7.7% * Consolidated balance sheet of each bank, including international operations Source: Bankscope and QNB Group analysis 9
France Financial Markets Since the peak of the Eurozone crisis in mid-2012, the stock market has returned 43% while French bond yields and CDS spreads have been on a declining trend; sovereign ratings remain strong despite a negative outlook from Moody s France Stock Exchange Index Sovereign USD 10-Yr Bond Yield (%) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 PE Ratio 15.1 1 Market Cap 55% of GDP 2 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2,500 2012 2013 2014 Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads (basis points) 30 25 20 15 10 5 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 Sovereign Ratings (July 2014) Rating Outlook Moody's Aa1 Negative Standard & Poor's Aau Stable Capital Intelligence N/A N/A Fitch AA+ Stable 1 Price to Earnings (PE) ratio, 12-month forward 2 Market Capitalization as at May 2014 as a share of 2013 GDP Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Group analysis 10
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