Market Commentary Sector Wise Performance Indices Last Traded % Change NIFTY IT 15811.4 1.81 NIFTY BANK 28061.75-0.15 NIFTY REALTY 275.85-0.07 NIFTY INFRA 3289.25 1.14 INDIA VIX 12.5975 1.49 NIFTY ENERGY 15763-1.24 NIFTY FMCG 32911.55 0.21 NIFTY PHARMA 10390.95 2.67 NIFTY PSU BANK 3315.5 0.62 NIFTY AUTO 11009.25 0.01 NIFTY MEDIA 2840.1-0.6 NIFTY METAL 3643.45-0.6 NIFTY COMMODITIES 3852.45 0.01 NIFTY CONSUMPTION 5379.3-0.13 TOP WEEKLY GAINERS UPL HINDALCO TECHM POWERGRID TATAMOT TOP WEEKLY LOSERS YESBANK BAJFINSERV EICHERMOT RELIANCE GAIL Sensex opened the week at 38472, made a high of 38989, low of 38416 and closed the week at 38645. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 394 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11605, made a high of 11760, low of 11595 and closed the week at 11680. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 123 points.. Options data for September series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 11800 followed by 12000CE whereas the highest OI build-up in PUT is now at the strike of 11600 followed by 11500 PE. Hence, 11600-11500 would act as a crucial support and trend decider for near term. Crossing of 11800 would indicate the possibility of 12000 on screen.. VIX is at 12.5975, if it remains below 13, it would be good for market. VIX if moved above 13 there may be profit booking. If moved below 12 there would be rally in Midcap. NIFTY PE-28.40. PCR is now at 1.57 come down from 1.75. It has created enough rooms for up move. Around 1.20 it will be a comfortable level for bulls to enter. The strong data for gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of FY19 may be one of the big movers. It is a multi-year high growth that the country posted and traders could positively react to it. The Indian economy grew 8.2 percent in April-June this year, the highest in two years, amid signs that households are buying more and companies are adding capacities, shrugging off the disorderly effects of the twin shocks of demonetization and the goods and services tax (GST). For the week ahead, investors could also react to monthly sales figures of auto companies. This month s figures may be in limelight owing to the pressure on big names such as Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors on the back of floods in Kerala. Indian currency would act as major concern as it touched to record low level of 71 on Friday, falling more than 11 percent year-to-date. It was trading at around 64 to the dollar on same day last year. USDINR (71.005) had a breakout after crossing the multiple top around 69 and rallied to 71.It is now in highly over bought region in daily chart. Any corrective fall would find support at 70 and 69.60. Major trend would be altered below 68.70 closing basis. Traders should keep an eye on crude prices. The Brent has been hovering around USD 78 per barrel mark and hovered around these levels. Supply shortage from Venezuela as well as Iran (on the back of looming sanctions which come into effect in November), there could be a case for higher prices. If the trade war issues between US and China, US and Europe weren t enough to rattle the markets, comments from President Donald Trump last week to go ahead with the latest tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods were not taken well. He also issued a threat to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to either shape up or be ensured of an exit by the United States could be seen as an eyesore moment for the markets too Shares of Infosys are likely to be in focus after it goes ex-bonus on September 4, 2018. The company had announced 1:1 bonus share during its financial results. 1
Nifty Weekly Outlook Outlook: Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11570 to 11800 in the coming week. Resistance 12000.Support 11500 Nifty (11681) has been making bullish candles for the last 9 weeks. It has been moved in highly over bought zone in daily as well as weekly chart. It is expected to consolidate in a range 11500 to 11800 before a breakout above 11800 for achieving the level of 12000. As long as it is holding 11500 there seems no reason to compromise with the major trend. 50 SMA lies at 11166. At present it is trading in the range 11630 to 11760. If breached this range it may be extended to 11540 to 11800. The rising trend line resistance would be around 11830. The index has continuous two bullish candles in monthly chart also and oscillator has a negative divergence with RSI. Conclusively, major trend is bullish but the traders should remain cautious at higher levels. Nifty Chart (Weekly):11681 High 11760 Low 11596 Resistance Levels - R1 11760 - R2 11800 - R3 11830 -R4 11900 Support Levels - S1 11630 - S2 11540 - S3 11500 -S4 11400 NIFTY - BANK Outlook Nifty Bank (28062) had behaved in a consolidation pattern for the last four weeks. The range seen in the index is 27700 to 28400. Presently it seems struck in the range 28000 to 28400 and failed to cross 28400 in multiple attempts. Above 28400 it would attain momentum and probably move towards 28600 and 28800. Below 28000 there is a strong support zone at 27700-27800 and major trend would remain intact as long as 27700 is not breached. Medium term support is at 27300 and 27150. Conclusively traders should watch 28400 and 27700 closely. 2
Bank Nifty Chart (Weekly): 28062 High 28389 Low 27941 Resistance Levels - R1 28400 - R2 28600 - R3 28800 - R4 29000 Support Levels - S1 28000 - S2 27800 - S3 27700 - S3 27500 NIFTY Midcap (19920) Nifty MIDCAP (19920) has shown continuous uptrend and moved above all major moving averages. Also it has a bullish breakout of above a rising wedge type pattern. This pattern lacks momentum but sustaining above 19960 or crossing 20000 decisively would be a strong signal for bulls and it would tend to move towards 20330. Immediate support is at 19745 but major trend would not be compromised as long as 19430 is not breached decisively. Confirmation of a doji candle in positive side in weekly chart added the strength. Daily chart Oscillators are in over bought territory. 200 SMA at 19528 is a good support. 3
Stock Picks GODREJIND (647) Godrejind has an inverse head and shoulder type breakout above 635 and there may be a dip up to the neckline. 625-626 is a strong support to decide the trend. The target of the pattern would be 670-680. ARVIND (399.30) Arvind (399) if breach 388 there will be a head and shoulder breakdown and the pattern has capacity to drag the stock towards 350-340. Closing above 415 would alter the trend. 4
JINDALSTEL (221) Jindal steel is preparing for a breakout above 228 and it may attain a capacity to test 250-260.Support after breakout would be 217-215. Disclaimer Source: Sumpoorna Research, NSE, BSE, SEBI, and other publically available documents. Document prepared by: Nitesh Aggarwala & Sunil Koul For further information, please contact: Sumpoorna Global Markets & Economics Research Phone: +91 120 4505200 email: globalresearch@sumpoorna.com url: www.sumpoornaonline.com This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the security/ instrument referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Sumpoorna Portfolio Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (collectively referred to as Sumpoorna ) may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a investment vehicle's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a instrument's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's/ investment vehicles fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Sumpoorna or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Sumpoorna has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Sumpoorna endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Neither Sumpoorna, its directors, employees nor its affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please contact Sumpoorna for more information on investment decisions. Also, please refer to the latest update on respective investment instruments for the disclosure status in respect of those particular investment instruments. Sumpoorna and its affiliates and clients may have investment positions in the investment vehicles recommended in this report. 5