Nivesh Commodity 11 th JAN, 2018 FROM RESEARCH DESK Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1,090,525 2325 Copper 203,750 75 Lead 143,450 600 Nickel 365,868 1188 Zinc 180,225 25 Scrip Close % Change R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 29324 0.58 29600 29462 29292 29153 28982 SILVER 38992 0.38 39569 39280 39011 38722 38453 CRUDE 4036 0.82 4080 4058 4037 4015 3994 NG 185.40 1.20 194.40 189.90 186.80 182.30 179.20 ALUMINIUM 138.90 1.46 140.30 139.60 138.35 137.60 136.30 COPPER 457.10 0.74 464.50 460.80 457.70 453.90 450.80 LEAD 163.00 0.37 165.40 164.20 163.20 162.00 161.00 NICKEL 819.00 1.65 852.30 835.60 821.20 804.50 790.00 ZINC 214.65 0.63 217.10 215.80 214.20 213.00 211.40 Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold $1319.30 0.43 Silver $17.03 0.12 * Closing rates & LME Stock of 10th Jan. Manoj Jain Director (Head of Commodity Research) Mobile: +91 7389934305 Tel: +91 0731 4262718 manoj.jain@indianivesh.in 1
BULLION Gold prices hover near 4 months High on Soft Dollar, Silver trades flat. Yesterday, both the precious metals trade with positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1319.30 per troy ounce up by 0.43% while silver settled at $17.03 per troy ounce up by 0.12%. In domestic market rupee shows some strength against dollar as dollar index shows correction from higher levels. Domestic markets are also closed with positive trend, Gold settled at Rs.29324 per 10gram with the loss of 0.58% while MCX Silver is settled at 38992 per 1kilogram with the loss of 0.38%. Gold prices were hovering near four month highs on Wednesday, as sentiment on the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of retail sales and inflation reports due at the end of the week. The U.S. dollar received no support after official data on Wednesday showed that U.S. import prices rose less than expected in December, while export prices unexpectedly fell. Market participants were now focusing on the release of U.S. inflation data due on Friday, for clues on the potential pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The greenback had initially strengthened after San Francisco Fed President John Williams said on Saturday that the Fed should raise interest rates three times this year given that economy will benefit from tax cuts. The comments came a day after Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she expects about four interest rate hikes this year, thanks to solid U.S. economic growth and low unemployment. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback s strength against a trade weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.49% at 91.77, off the previous session's one week high of 92.36. Gold is sensitive to moves in both U.S. rates and the dollar. Weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency, while a rise in U.S. rates lifts the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets such as bullion. Gold is having support at $1304 1290 while having resistance at $1324 1332, Silver is having support at $16.95 16.80 and resistance at $17.15 17.28 in international markets. At MCX Gold is having support around 29150 29050 while resistance around 29380 29450. Silver is having support at 38700 and 38500 while resistance around 39300 and 39500. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today Gold is having support at 29150 29050 while resistance at 29380 29450, silver is having support at 38700 38500 and resistance at 39300 39500. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. 2
ENERGY Crude Oil closed at 3 years high due to Production, Supplies Fall Yesterday, Crude oil closed with gain in international market WTI Crude settled at $63.58 while Brent settled at $69.20 per barrel. Crude oil is closed with gain in international market which is high of more than 3 years. At MCX Crude oil is settled at 4036 per barrel with the gain of 0.82%. Crude oil prices settled higher on Wednesday as traders cheered an unexpected drop in US production while data showing crude stockpiles fell for the eighth straight week lifted sentiment. Crude oil prices continued their bullish start to the week as traders cheered signs of ongoing tightening in domestic crude oil supplies which offset a larger thanexpected build in both gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 4.95 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 5, beating expectations for of a draw of 3.44 million barrels. Gasoline inventories one of the products that crude is refined into rose by 4.14 million barrels, well above expectations for a rise of 2.62 million barrels, while supplies of distillate the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil rose by 4.3 million barrels, confounding expectations for a rise of just 1.46 million barrels. For tax purposes refiners tend to ramp up activity at the end of the year burning through crude supplies but this activity traditionally slows down in January, supporting a build in product inventories. Investor fears of rising US production capped upside momentum, however, despite data showing U.S. output fell by nearly 300,000 barrels a day to 9.49 million barrels a day (bpd). Crude oil is having support at $62.40 while resistance at $64.50 in international markets. At MCX Crude oil is having support at 3990 3960 and resistance at 4060 and 4120. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 3990 3960 while resistance at 4060 4120, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. 3
BASE METAL UK manufacturing output at highest in 10 years lift the sentiment in base metals. Yesterday, base metals trades positive in international market. UK manufacturing output is expanding at its fastest rate since early 2008 after recording a seventh consecutive month of growth in November. Renewable energy projects, boats, aeroplanes and cars for export helped make output 3.9% higher in the three months to November than in 2016. Official figures also show industrial output rose by 0.4% in November. Construction output in the three months to November fell by 2%, compared with the previous three months. That was the industry's biggest quarterly fall since August 2012, with the only bright spot for the sector being a 1.2% increase in new housing. Copper 3M LME settled at $7146 per metric ton which is still trading above important support levels of $7000. At MCX Copper closed at 457.10 with the gain of 0.74%. In other base metals Lead, Zinc, aluminium and Nickel closed positive. In entire base metal pack Nickel and Zinc are looking promising and we expect both the metal will took support at lower levels. Today Copper is having support around 452 while resistance at 461. Nickel will continue to take support at lower levels and will trade in positive territory. Copper is having support at 452 and 448 while resistance at 461 and 464, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss 4
AGRI COMMODITY Supply concern support Soybean in domestic market, long term trend bullish Yesterday, soybean gain in domestic markets due to supply concern and settled at 3241 per quintal with the loss of 1.15%. Soybean closed above important resistance level of 3190 which indicates it is still in bull trend and will take support at lower levels. CBOT closed at 954 cents per bushel with negative bias. Bursa Malaysia trade positive and impact is seen in Refined soy oil and CPO as both the commodities trade positive. In other Agriculture commodities we have seen mixed trend, Chana and Castor seed shows recovery from lower levels. Guarseed and Guragum trade positive as strong crude oil trend supported price of both the commodities and export demand of guargum is bright and will support prices long term trend is still bullish and any dip in commodity will be good opportunity to buy. In Spices Coriander shows recovery amid worry of loss of production due to cold waves in producing area while Jeera and Turmeric shows weakness due to higher production expectations. Mustard seed is shows recovery from lower levels. Today, Soybean is having support around 3170 while resistance at 3260 3280. We expect soybean will show some profit booking today and refined soyoil will in a range of 738 747. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support at 3170 while resistance at 3260 3280, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss on closing basis. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com and kitco.com. 5
IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 E mail: manoj.jain@indianivesh.in Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. 6