SOYBEAN COMPLEX FUNDAMENTALS Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed lower on Wednesday as a round of welcome showers in the U.S. Midwest prompted investors to take profits following multi-month highs set last week, traders said. CBOT July soybeans settled down 13-1/2 cents at $11.56 per bushel, after trading as high as $12.08-1/2 last week. Market briefly pared declines after the National Oilseed Processors Association in a monthly report said its members crushed 152.8 million bushels of soybeans in May up from 147.614 million during April and more than analysts expected and the most on record for the month. NOPA said that soy meal exports fell to 682,500 MT in May from 769,035 MT in April. But they were still well above the 551,146 MT recorded in May 2015. Soy oil stocks as of May 31 stood at 1.994 billion lbs. Analysts had forecast soy oil stocks of 1.971 billion lbs. Stocks were 1.578 billion lbs a year ago and 1.943 billion at the end of April. Updated Midwest weather forecasts looked wetter for next week but temperatures should remain mostly above normal. Argentina's Rosario grains exchange raised its forecast for the country's 2015-16 soybean harvest to 55.3 million MT, from 55 million MT previously. CBOT soy meal and soy oil futures followed soybeans lower. July soy oil hit a two-week low of 31.80 cents per lb before settling at 31.96 cents. Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures contracts on Wednesday. Trade estimates that funds were seen as net sellers of 8,000 soybean contracts. CBOT soybean could continue witness some more profit booking. Slightly better weather in the Midwest could also impact prices Soy meal and Soy oil could also continue move lower on Thursday. INTERNATIONAL RECAP CBOT Soybeans as on 15-06-16 (USc / BSH ) Contract Close High Low Net Chg % Chg Jul-16 1156.00 1178.00 1154.50-13.5-1.15 Aug-16 1155.00 1173.25 1153.00-11.0-0.94 Sep-16 1145.00 1163.50 1143.75-10.8-0.93 CBOT Soy meal as on 15-06-16 (USD / TONS) Jul-16 407.2 414.3 406.6-1.4-0.34 Aug-16 404.8 410.8 404.2-0.6-0.15 Sep-16 403.1 409.2 402.7-1.1-0.27 CBOT Soy Oil as on 15-06-16 (USc / LBS ) Jul-16 31.96 32.56 31.80-0.56-1.72 Aug-16 32.10 32.70 31.94-0.57-1.74 Sep-16 32.24 32.83 32.08-0.57-1.74 ICE Canola as on 15-06-16 (CAD /TONNE) Jun-16 521.6 528.2 521.4-4.7-0.89 Nov-16 525.3 532.0 525.2-4.7-0.89 Jan-17 528.8 535.7 528.6-5.6-1.05 Source: Thomson Reuters MUSTARDSEED ICE Canada canola futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by weaker soybean prices due to favorable rains in the U.S. Midwest. Canola's recent run higher and good growing conditions in Western Canada overhang the market. July canola lost $4.70 to $521.60 per tonne. November canola shed $4.70 at $525.30 per tonne. The Canadian dollar was trading at $1.2881 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.63 U.S. cents lower than Tuesday's close of $1.2853, or 77.80 U.S. cents. Canola prices could track soy prices and trade weak on Thursday.
US WEATHER According to national weather service (NWS), dry weather conditions expected much of the central/southern plains and Mississippi valley. The NWS also added that heavy rain possible on Thursday across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio & Tennessee valleys and northern high plains. Source: http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php The soil moisture plot shows the current analysis. US NATIONAL FORECAST MAPS Source: Weather.gov > National Forecast Maps
OILSEEDS FUNDAMENTALS DOMESTIC Indian soybean rose on Wednesday on expectations of a delay in sowing as monsoon rains are yet to arrive in regions where the oilseed is grown. Rapeseed ended flat on Wednesday, but demand for crushing supported limited downside. The Solvent Extractors Association of India has compiled the Import data of Vegetable Oils (edible & non-edible) for the month of May 2016. Import of vegetable oils during May, 2016 is reported at 1,024,878 MT compared to 1,371,662 MT in May, 2015. Preliminary reports of oilseeds crop coverage in the kharif season have started coming in. The total sown area as on 10th June, as per reports received from States, stands at 0.72 lakh hectare as compared to 1.22 lakh hectare at this time last year. July refined soy oil futures eased 0.42% to 644 rupees per 10 kg due to high stocks of oil in the country. Indian soybean prices could remain firm as sowing intentions remain behind schedule to weak monsoons. A stronger Rupee could limit upside. DOMESTIC RECAP NCDEX Soybeans as on 15-06-16 (INR /KG100) Contract Close High Low Net Chg % Chg Jun-16 3887.0 3905.0 3815.0 37.0 0.96 Jul-16 3954.0 3973.0 3871.0 38.0 0.97 Oct-16 3868.0 3885.0 3825.0 20.0 0.52 NCDEX Refined Soy oil as on 15-06-16 (INR /KG10 ) Jun-16 631.75 634.35 631.50-2.60-0.41 Jul-16 643.35 647.65 643.00-3.35-0.52 Aug-16 650.75 655.00 650.35-3.50-0.53 NCDEX RM Seed as on 15-06-16 (INR /KG100) Jun-16 4691 4745 4676 1 0.02 Jul-16 4767 4823 4752 3 0.06 Aug-16 4840 4891 4823 Unch - CROP COVERAGE KHARIF 2016-17 Crop 2016-17 2015-16 Oilseeds 0.72 1.22 Data in lakh hectares, Source: PIB SOYBEAN RM SEED SPREAD Line, NRSc2 Line 4,747.00 Net Chg -20.00 % Chg (-0.42%) Line, NSBc2 Line 3,923.00 Net Chg -31.00 % Chg (-0.78%) Spread, NSBc2 Spread -824.00 12/1/2015-6/27/2016 (BOM) 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 Price 4,747.00 INR 100B 4,000 3,923.00 Spread between Soybean and RM Seed July remained flat to trade at Rs.-824/Quintal. 4,400 4,200 3,800 Auto Value INR 100B -824.00-800 Auto NCDEX WAREHOUSE INVENTORY Commodity 15-Jun-16 RM Seed RM Seed - Alwar 2655 RM Seed - Bikaner 31927 RM Seed - Jaipur 3531 RM Seed - Jodhpur 3794 RM Seed - Kota 1291 RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar 7762 TOTAL RM Seed 50960 Soybean Soybean B - Akola 18276 Soybean B - Indore 480 Soybean B - Kota 5050 Soybean B - Latur 1890 TOTAL Soybean 25696 Source: NCDEX
INDIA WEATHER NORTHERN LIMIT OF MONSOON - 2016 According to IMD, conditions are favourable for further advance of SW monsoon into entire Goa, some parts of Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra & Marathawada, and remaining parts of north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 3-4days. INDIA WEATHER FORECAST According to IMD, heavy to very heavy rains is expected at isolated places over West Bengal and Sikkim. The report also added that heavy rainfall is expected over Uttarakhand, East U.P. and coastal Karnataka. Thunderstorm accompanied by squall is very likely over isolated places over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand,Chandigarh & Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. Source: IMD FORECAST FOR 16 THURSDAY 2016 SATELLITE IMAGE Source: IMD Source: IMD
SKYMET WEATHER UPDATE Source: Skymet According to Skymet, monsoon current continues to be week over Peninsular India. Particularly, the West Coast has recorded significant drop in rain activity. Similar weather conditions will prevail on Thursday, light to moderate Monsoon rain will continue over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Konkan & Goa. While interior pockets will also record isolated light rain. Meanwhile, Monsoon current remains active over Northeast India, particularly over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Assam region. Moreover, we can expect another Monsoon system brewing in West central Bay of Bengal, which is likely to enhance the Monsoon into some more parts of east India. It will also activate the western arm of the Monsoon, leading to increase in rains over west coast.
PALM OIL FUNDAMENTALS Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday, its seventh straight losing session, as bearish palm fundamentals and declining rival oils weighed on the market. Traders forecast a rise in seasonal output in the coming months, while exports were seen declining after it peaked in May to accommodate Ramadan demand. Palm oil futures for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 1.9 percent to 2,481 ringgit ($605) per tonne at the close of trade on Tuesday. It earlier fell to 2,478 ringgit per tonne, the lowest since May 25. Investors believe that a combination of declining exports, an increase in output and weakness in soy, seen in Dalian and all commodities markets in general is pressurizing palm prices. Additionally, Malaysia, after Indonesia, will raise its crude palm oil export tax to 6% in July from 5.5% in June, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed on Wednesday. Export data from cargo surveyors for the first half of June is scheduled for release on Wednesday. Exports dropped 5-10% in the first ten days of June compared with May's corresponding period, according to the cargo surveyors' data. Palm oil on the European vegetable oils market continued to ease on Wednesday on the back of weakness in rival oils and mineral oil. Palm oil was mostly offered between $10 and $17.50 a tonne down from Tuesday amid lower CBOT soy oil futures. EU rape oil was mostly offered between 3-5 Euros per tonne lower, tracking weaker CBOT soy oil and because of technical selling in rapeseed futures, which followed the trend in Chicago soybeans and lower energy markets. Indian CPO on MCX ended with losses on Wednesday, tracking weak overseas prices. A stronger Rupee also aided weakness. BMD prices could move range bound to weak on weak export demand due to higher export tax. Indian prices could track overseas prices and trade weak. A stronger Rupee could aid downside in prices. MARKET RECAP BMD CPO as on 15-06-16 (MYR /TONNE) Contract Close High Low Net Chg % Chg Jun-16 2399 - - -121-4.80 Jul-16 2477 2507 2444-11 -0.44 Aug-16 2468 2502 2437-13 -0.52 ICDX CPO as on 15-06-16 (IDR / KG) Jun-16 8800 8965 8570 160 1.85 Jul-16 8525 8660 8350-30 -0.35 Aug-16 8425 8590 8265-40 -0.47 MCX CPO as on 15-06-16 (INR /KG10 ) Jun-16 515.10 517.90 514.20-3.50-0.67 Jul-16 512.10 514.70 509.60-3.00-0.58 Aug-16 508.90 511.70 505.80-2.50-0.49 SOY OIL CPO SPREAD Line, 1FCPOc3 Line 593.444 Line, BOc2 Line 705.921 Spread, BOc2 Spread 112.476 11/3/2015-6/29/2016 (KUL) 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 26 02 10 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 03 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 Spread between Soy oil and CPO widened on Thursday morning and was trading at $112.48/MT. The spread continued to widen as Palm oil fell more than Soy oil prices. Price USD T 705.921 700 650 593.444 600 550 500 Auto Value 112.476 USD T Auto
PHYSICAL MARKET RATES - PALM Commodity Rate Units Malaysia CPO FOB - September 625.15 $ / MT Malaysia Palm Kernel FOB - September 1323.43 $ / MT Malaysia Palm Oil RBD FOB - September 647.50 $ / MT Malaysia Palm olein - September 651.25 $ / MT Malaysia Palm Stearin - September 615.00 $ / MT China - Tianjin Refined Palm oil Spot 5800.00 CNY / MT Indonesia CPO FOB Spot 635.00 $ / MT India Mumbai C & F CPO Spot 650.00 $ / MT India Mumbai C & F Palm olein RBD Spot 657.00 $ / MT India Kakinada Palm olein RBD Spot 575.00 Rs. / 10 Kg India Kandla Palm olein RBD Spot 568.00 Rs. / 10 Kg India Mangalore Palm olein RBD Spot 590.00 Rs. / 10 Kg PHYSICAL MARKET RATES SOY COMPLEX Soybean Brazil Soybean September - FOB Paranagua 473.55 $ / MT Argentina Soybean Oct - FOB Up River 448.2 $ / MT China Imported Soybean Dalian 3650 CNY / MT USA Soybean September - FOB Gulf 450.4 $ / MT Soy meal Brazil Soy meal September- FOB Paranagua 439.4 $ / MT Argentina Soy meal October- FOB Up River 442.24 $ / MT China HQ Soy meal Dalian 3660 CNY / MT Soy Oil Brazil Soy Oil September - FOB Paranagua 693.6 $ / MT Argentina Soy Oil September - FOB Up River 696.88 $ / MT China Standard Soy Oil Dalian 6280 CNY / MT India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai 768 $ / MT CBOT SOYBEAN JULY Cndl, Sc1 Open 1155 1 /2 High 1160 Low 1145 3 /4 Last 1147 1 /4 Net Chg -8 3 /4 % Chg (-0.76%) 3MA, Sc1 3MA_1 1142 3 /8+ 3MA_2 1052 1 /8+ 3MA_3 967 5 /8+ 11/30/2015-6/27/2016 (CHG) Price USc Bsh 1170 1147 1140 1 /4 1142 3 /8+ 1110 1080 1052 1050 1 /8+ 1020 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 19 25 01 08 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 31 06 13 20 27 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 INTRADAY LEVELS AND TREND Contracts Support Resistance Overall Intraday Trend CBOT Soybeans - Aug 1147.58 1167.83 Bearish CBOT Soy meal - Aug 402.4 409.0 Bearish CBOT Soy Oil - Aug 31.79 32.55 Bearish ICE Canola - Nov 523.0 529.8 Bearish NCDEX Soybeans - Jul 3892 3994 Bullish NCDEX Ref. Soy Oil - Jul 641.68 646.33 Bearish NCDEX RM Seed - Jul 4738 4809 Bullish BMD CPO - Aug 2436 2501 Bearish ICDX CPO - Aug 8263 8588 Bearish 990 967 960 5 /8+ 930 900 870 1/8
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