Reliance Industries Ltd.

May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18. Volume No.. I Issue No. 175 Reliance Industries Ltd. May 25, 2018 BSE Code: 500325 NSE Code: RELIANCE Reuters Code: RELI.NS Bloomberg Code: RIL:IN RIL is the largest private sector company in India, with businesses in the energy, petrochemicals, textiles, natural resources, retail, and telecommunications. It has a strong presence in the integrated energy value chain and pre-eminent position in retail and digital services in India. Strong operating performance: RIL reported a strong show in Q4FY18 with 18% YoY growth in standalone revenue thanks to its improved performance from petrochemicals segment. Further, demand recovery post GST stabilization and improving economic activity also supported growth. EBITDA increased at a strong pace of 19% YoY supported by performance of petrochemical segment, however, EBITDA margin improved marginally by 19 bps YoY to 15.3% due to disappointing refining margins. Adj. PAT grew by just 6.7% YoY due to sharp increase ( 521% YoY) in interest expense. Going forward, we expect revenue/adj.pat to grow at a CAGR of 13%/9% over FY18-20E led by healthy gross refining margin (GRM) and strong growth momentum in petchem segment. Healthy GRM to drive refining segment: Despite 16% YoY growth in refining revenue during the quarter on account of higher crude oil prices, EBIT declined 11% YoY largely due to reduced crude throughput (down 4% YoY) and adverse movement in Brent-Dubai differentials. As a result, EBIT margin contracted by 229 bps YoY to 7.5%. RIL s GRM came in at $11 per barrel during Q4FY18 and outperformed Singapore complex refining margins by USD4/bbl (USD5.1/bbl in Q4FY17) due to lower light heavy and Brent-Dubai differentials. We expect GRMs to remain strong (in the range of USD11-12/bbl) over FY18-20E as oil demand stays robust with no major capacity addition in sight. Further, refining capacity addition of 0.8mbpd in 2018 will also drive growth going ahead. Petchem maintains strong growth momentum: Petchem segment grew strongly with 46% YoY increase in revenue on the back of higher volumes from new paraxylene, refinery offshore cracker (ROGC) and downstream units. Volumes grew 42% YoY supported by ramp-up of the recently commissioned ROGC. Further, Petcoke gasifier is expected to be fully operational by H1FY19. EBIT increased by 84% YoY leading to 356 bps YoY increase in EBIT margin to 17.2% on the back of strong volumes and higher margins from polypropylene, polyester and fiber intermediate products. Going forward, with near full utilization of petchem projects and expected firming-up of propylene and MEG margins will boost RIL s earnings. Outlook and Valuation: Going forward, improved petchem performance coupled with rising refining margins globally augurs well for RIL s earnings outlook. Driven by strong outlook, we recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price (TP) of Rs 1013 based on sum of the parts (SOTP) valuation methodology wherein we value its standalone business at Rs 640 (P/E of 10x for FY20E) and investments at Rs 374. Market Data Rating BUY CMP (Rs.) 922 Target (Rs.) 1,013 Potential Upside 10% Duration Long Term Face Value (Rs.) 10 52 week H/L (Rs.) 1011/649 Decline from 52WH (%) 9% Rise from 52WL (%) 42% Beta 1.2 Mkt. Cap (Rs.Cr) 583,929 Fiscal Year Ended Y/E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue (Rs.Cr) Adj. profit (Rs.Cr) 2,42,025 2,90,042 3,65,670 3,73,401 31,425 33,612 37,521 39,721 Adj. EPS (Rs.) 49.6 53.1 59.2 62.7 P/E (x) 18.6 17.4 15.6 14.7 P/BV (x) 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 ROE (%) 11.6 11.1 11.3 10.9 900 Shareholding Pattern Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Promoters 47.6 47.5 47.5 FII s 23.6 24.1 24.3 MFs/Insti 11.8 11.7 11.5 Public 10.1 9.6 9.5 Others 6.9 7.1 7.2 One year price chart RIL Sensex (Rebased) 400

Reliance Industries Ltd: Business overview RIL is the largest private sector company in India, with businesses in the energy, petrochemicals, textiles, natural resources, retail, and telecommunications. It has a strong presence in the integrated energy value chain and pre-eminent position in retail and digital services in India. With a portfolio consisting of onshore and offshore blocks in India (including CBM) as well as acreage in US Shale plays, RIL is one of the largest exploration and production players in India. At Jamnagar, it has commissioned the world's largest refinery off-gas cracker (ROGC) complex at Jamnagar which will use refinery process residue to produce feedstock used to make petrochemicals. On Petrochemicals segment, it is one of the most integrated petrochemicals producers globally and holds leadership position across product categories Quarterly Financials (Standalone) QoQ (Rs cr) Q4FY18 Q4FY17 YoY Growth % Q3FY18 Growth % Sales 84,037 67,146 25.2 73,256 14.7 EBITDA 13,425 11,280 19.0 13,744-2.3 Margin (%) 16.0 16.8 18.8 Depreciation 2,679 2,409 11.2 2,475 8.2 EBIT 10,746 8,871 21.1 11,269-4.6 Interest 1,460 235 521.3 1,094 33.5 Other Income 2,621 1,371 91.2 1,624 61.4 Exceptional Items - - - - - PBT 11,907 10,007 19.0 11,799 0.9 Tax 3,210 1,856 73.0 3,345-4.0 Reported PAT 8,697 8,151 6.7 8,454 2.9 Adjustment - - - - - Adj PAT 8,697 8,151 6.7 8,454 2.9 No. of shares (cr) 633.3 633.3 0.0 633.3 0.0 EPS (Rs) 13.7 12.9 6.7 13.4 2.9 Source: Company, In-house research

Investment Rationale Healthy GRM to drive refining segment Despite 16% YoY growth in refining revenue during the quarter on account of higher crude oil prices. EBIT declined 11% YoY largely due to reduced crude throughput (down 4% YoY) and adverse movement in Brent-Dubai differentials. As a result, EBIT margin contracted by 229 bps YoY to 7.5%. RIL s GRM came in at $11 per barrel during Q4FY18 and outperformed Singapore complex refining margins by USD4/bbl (USD5.1/bbl in Q4FY17) due to lower lightheavy and Brent-Dubai differentials. We expect GRMs to remain strong (in the range of USD11-12/bbl) over FY18-20E as oil demand stays robust with no major capacity addition in sight. Further, refining capacity addition of 0.8mbpd in 2018 will also drive growth going ahead. Petchem to maintain strong growth momentum Petchem segment grew strongly with 46% YoY increase in revenue on the back of higher volumes from new paraxylene, refinery offshore cracker (ROGC) and downstream units. Volumes grew 42% YoY supported by ramp-up of the recently commissioned ROGC. Further, Petcoke gasifier is expected to be fully operational by H1FY19. EBIT increased by 84% YoY leading to 356 bps YoY increase in EBIT margin to 17.2% on the back of strong volumes and higher margins from polypropylene, polyester and fiber intermediate products. Going forward, with near full utilization of petchem projects and expected firming-up of propylene and MEG margins will boost RIL s earnings. Aggressive pricing impacts ARPU Reliance Jio posted subdued performance during the quarter as tariff cut resulted in 11% YoY contraction in ARPU to Rs137 in Q4FY18. As a result, topline rose by a meagre 3.6% QoQ while Ebitda margin contracted by 40 bps QoQ to 37.8%. However, customer additions at 26.5 million remained strong taking the total subscriber base to ~18.66 crore as on March 31, 2018. We expect Jio s revenue to grow at 50% CAGR over FY18-20E while EBITDA margin is expected to expand from 33% in FY18 to 42.2% in FY20E driven by strong subscriber additions and expected easing in tariff war in the sector. We now value Jio at Rs 253 a share based on DCF methodology. E&P continues to disappoint Oil & Gas segment continues its disappointing performance as the segment reported 10% YoY decline in revenue impacted by declining volumes. Further, EBIT loss expanded to Rs416cr in Q4FY18 from Rs78 crore in Q4FY17as improved price realisation was offset by volume declines in oil & gas production primarily due to natural decline and shutdown of wells due to water and sand ingress. The company s KG D-6 gas production declined by 42% YoY to 4.3 mmscmd whereas production in US Shale operations declined by 27% YoY to 32.4 Bcfe. Sum of the parts (SOTP) valuation Particulars Basis Multiple Year Value (Rs Cr) Value/Share RIL (standalone) EPS 10.0x FY20E 405149 640 Investments Shale Gas Investments 1.0x - 60,570 95 Retail Investments 2.0x - 13,328 21 Telecom DCF 253 SEZ Investments 1.0X 2526 4 Target Price 1013

Financials: Strong operating performance RIL reported a strong show in Q4FY18 with 18% YoY growth in standalone revenue thanks to its improved performance from petrochemicals segment. Further, demand recovery post GST stabilization and improving economic activity also supported growth. EBITDA increased at a strong pace of 19% YoY supported by performance of petrochemical segment, however, EBITDA margin improved marginally by 19 bps YoY to 15.3% due to disappointing refining margins. Adj. PAT grew by just 6.7% YoY due to sharp increase ( 521% YoY) in interest expense. Going forward, we expect revenue/adj.pat to grow at a CAGR of 13%/9% over FY18-20E led by healthy gross refining margin (GRM) and strong growth momentum in petchem segment. Overall revenue to grow at 13% CAGR during FY18-20E 400000 200000 0 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 365670 373401 233158 242025 290042 20% 26% 4% 2% -29% FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenue (Rs Crore) % Growth (YoY) EBITDA to grow at 8% CAGR over FY18-20E 58212 60002 17.9% 5174117.8% 39347 43256 16.9% 15.9% 16.1% FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E EBITDA (Rs. Cr) EBITDA Margin (%) Return ratios to stay robust 50% 0% -50% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 15.0 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.5 13.1 13.2 11.6 11.1 11.3 10.9 10.0 5.0 0.0 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Profit & Loss Account (Standalone) Y/E (Rs. Cr) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Total operating Income 2,42,025 2,90,042 3,65,670 3,73,401 Profit & Loss Account (Standalone) Raw Material cost 1,64,572 2,02,065 2,61,774 2,66,748 Employee cost 4,434 4,740 5,976 6,102 Other operating expenses 29,763 31,496 39,709 40,548 EBITDA 43,256 51,741 58,212 60,002 Depreciation 8,465 9,580 11,002 11,592 EBIT 34,791 42,161 47,209 48,410 Interest cost 2,723 4,656 3,502 2,819 Other Income 8,709 8,220 7,691 8,821 Profit before tax 40,777 45,725 51,398 54,412 Tax 9,352 12,113 13,878 14,691 Profit after tax 31,425 33,612 37,521 39,721 Minority Interests - - - - P/L from Associates - - - - Adjusted PAT 31,425 33,612 37,521 39,721 E/o income / (Expense) - - - - Reported PAT 31,425 33,612 37,521 39,721 Balance Sheet (Standalone) Y/E (Rs. Cr) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Paid up capital 3,251 6,335 6,335 6,335 Reserves and Surplus 2,85,062 3,08,312 3,41,271 3,76,431 Net worth 2,88,313 3,14,647 3,47,606 3,82,766 Minority interest - - - - Total Debt 1,07,446 96,835 76,835 61,835 Other non-current liabilities 24,766 30,635 30,635 30,635 Total Liabilities 4,20,525 4,42,117 4,55,076 4,75,236 Total fixed assets 2,87,319 3,00,447 3,09,445 3,17,852 Capital WIP Goodwill 0 0 0 0 Investments 1,92,450 2,25,222 2,45,222 2,65,222 Net Current assets -71,846-1,04,773-1,20,811-1,29,060 Other non-current assets 12,602 21,221 21,221 21,221 Total Assets 4,20,525 4,42,117 4,55,076 4,75,236 Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) Y/E (Rs. Cr) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Pre tax profit 40,777 45,725 51,398 54,412 Depreciation 8,465 9,580 11,002 11,592 Chg in Working Capital 19,533 33,904 37,654 1,311 Others (7,765) (3,564) (4,189) (6,002) Tax paid (9,560) (8,953) (13,878) (14,691) Cash flow from operating activities 51,450 76,692 81,988 46,623 Capital expenditure (30,266) (22,708) (20,000) (20,000) Chg in investments 10,174 (32,772) (20,000) (20,000) Other investing cashflow (34,857) 5,470 7,691 8,821 Cash flow from investing activities (54,949) (50,010) (32,309) (31,179) Equity raised/(repaid) 696 3,084 - - Debt raised/(repaid) 3,020 (10,611) (20,000) (15,000) Dividend paid - (4,561) (4,561) (4,561) Other financing activities (5,355) (4,656) (3,502) (2,819) Cash flow from financing activities (1,639) (16,744) (28,064) (22,380) Net chg in cash (5,138) 9,938 21,616 (6,937) Key Ratios (Standalone) Y/E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Growth (%) Net Sales 3.8 19.8 26.1 2.1 EBITDA 9.9 19.6 12.5 3.1 Net profit 14.8 7.0 11.6 5.9 Margin (%) EBITDA 17.9 17.8 15.9 16.1 NPM 13.0 11.6 10.3 10.6 Return Ratios (%) RoE 11.6 11.1 11.3 10.9 RoCE 11.5 12.5 13.1 13.2 Per share data (Rs.) EPS 49.6 53.1 59.2 62.7 DPS 5.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 Valuation(x) P/E 18.6 17.4 15.6 14.7 EV/EBITDA 15.9 13.1 10.9 10.5 EV/Net Sales 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.7 P/B 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 Turnover Ratios (x) Net Sales/GFA 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Sales/Total Assets 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

Rating Criteria Large Cap. Return Mid/Small Cap. Return Buy More than equal to 10% Buy More than equal to 15% Hold Upside or downside is less than 10% Accumulate* Upside between 10% & 15% Reduce Less than equal to -10% Hold Between 0% & 10% * To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute Accumulate as Buy and Reduce as Sell. * Reliance Industries Limited is a Large-cap company. Disclaimer: Reduce/sell Less than 0% The SEBI registration number is INH200000394. The analyst for this report certifies that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his / her personal views about the subject company or companies, and its / their securities. No part of his / her compensation was / is / will be, directly / indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and no action is solicited on the basis of this. It is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security, in any jurisdiction, where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Wealth India Financial Services Pvt. Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees worldwide: 1. Do not have any financial interest in the subject company / companies in this report; 2. Do not have any actual / beneficial ownership of one per cent or more in the company / companies mentioned in this document, or in its securities at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, or the date of public appearance; 3. Do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report, or at the time of public appearance; 4. Have not received any compensation from the subject company / companies in the past 12 months; 5. Have not managed or co-managed the public offering of securities for the subject company / companies in the past 12 months; 6. Have not received any compensation for investment banking, or merchant banking, or brokerage services from the subject company / companies in the past 12 months; 7. Have not served as an officer, director, or employee of the subject company; 8. Have not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company; This document is not for public distribution. It has been furnished to you solely for your information, and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Contact Us: Funds India Uttam Building, Third Floor No. 38 & 39 Whites Road Royapettah Chennai 600014 T: +91 7667 166 166 Email: contact@fundsindia.com

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