2 November, 2017 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Currency Pair Close % Change Currency Pivot Levels OI % Change Prev OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 64.82 0.28 20.68 10.72 64.9658 64.8392 64.6808 EURINR 75.54 0.28 2.46 0.89 75.6133 75.5067 75.3933 GBPINR 86.29 0.37 12.52 1.63 86.4117 86.1858 86.0167 JPYINR 56.91 0.89 13.76 3.62 57.0608 56.9692 56.7883 Foreign Currency Update * R= Resistance. S = Support Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 94.70 0.26 EURUSD 1.1619 0.23 GBPUSD 1.3245 0.28 JPYUSD 114.17 0.46. USDINR 28 November, 2017 Expiry Option Update Options LTP %Chg OI %Chg OI CE 65.75 0.0725 34.09 27368 14.63 CE 65.50 0.11 29.03 188975 0.6 CE 65.25 0.155 30.34 110666 5.86 CE 65.00 0.225 28.57 178092 0.51 PE 65.75 1.0075 14.81 15888 2.29 PE 65.50 0.8025 20.22 177919 3.79 PE 65.25 0.595 21.43 95665 2.74 PE 65.00 0.41 24.24 133245 2.09 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate (November 1, 2017) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91 0731 4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 64.5256 85.6706 75.0755 56.7000 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (November Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Indian rupee traded at six week high Wednesday on likely foreign fund inflows into local stocks while dollar pulled back from a 3 1/2 month high versus the yen, sagging ahead of a U.S. tax bill that will be unveiled after a one day delay. Technical, USDINR extended its fall for third consecutive day and settled at 64.8075 compared to previous close of 64.9975 levels. On the EOD chart, trading on verge of its previous swing support and a break below 64.70 could extend the loss and it may test 64.50 64.30 very soon. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 65.30. Recommendation: LTP Sell below Target Stop loss 64.82 64.70 64.50 64.25 64.88 Important Factor: U.S. Unemployment Claims EURINR (November Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Euro/Rupee traded little changed Wednesday as investors remained on the sideline ahead of Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meet outcome. Technical, EURINR recovered from the day low 75.40 and settled at 75.50. Intraday price action resulted in formation of hammer candle stick which is indicating for trend reversal in pair. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 75.90 breaks above only could result in momentum gain towards 76.35 and above. Daily Important Factor : Spanish Manufacturing PMI Recommendation LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 75.54 75.70 75.75 75.55 75.30 75.90 0
GBPINR(November Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Pound/rupee traded higher Wednesday after better than expected UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index while investors await the Bank of England monetary policy outcome due today. Technical, GBPINR settled up by 0.37%. On the EOD chart, pair broke pennant pattern resistance 86.12 which is indicating bullishness in days to come. Today, a break above 86.35 could extend the gain and pair may test 86.80 87.00 levels. On the downside pair would need to trade below 85.35 in order to test 85.00 and below, else recovery rally could expect towards 86.00 86.40. Recommendation : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 86.29 86.10 86.15 86.40 86.70 85.95 Important Factor: BOE Monetary Policy JPYINR ( November Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Yen traded down Wednesday on higher risk appetite tracking surge in Asian shares as investors digest regional earnings reports while investors await the release of US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting outcome. JPYINR plunged 0.89% yesterday and settled at 56.88 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of long bearish candle stick which is indicating for bearishness towards 56.30 and below. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 57.65 breaks above only could witness recovery towards 58.00 and above. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell below 56.80 Stop loss 56.91 Target 56.30 56.00 57.00 Important data : NIL
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today The UK manufacturing sector activity expanded notably in October, survey data from IHS Markit reported Wednesday. The IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply Purchasing Managers' Index increased to 56.3 in October from revised 56.0 in September. U.S. private employers added 235,000 jobs in October, well above economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor ADP showed. U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 58.7 from 60.8 the month before. The reading was just below expectations of 59.5 from a Reuters poll of 73 economists Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected while leaving the door open for a December rate hike. There was also little in the post meeting statement Wednesday to indicate that the Fed would hold off on rising rates again soon. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 1:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.8 54.3 Positive 2:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.3 Positive 2:20pm EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 56.7 56.7 Neutral 2:25pm EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 60.5 60.5 Neutral EUR German Unemployment Change 10K 23K Positive 2:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 58.6 58.6 Neutral 3:00pm GBP Construction PMI 48.3 48.1 Positive Tentative EUR Spanish 10 y Bond Auction 1.63 1.8 Tentative EUR French 10 y Bond Auction 0.88 1.9 5:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 27.00% 5:30pm GBP BOE Inflation Report GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 6 0 3 2 0 7 Positive GBP Monetary Policy Summary GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.25% Positive GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B Neutral GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0 0 9 0 0 9 Neutral 6:00pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks USD Unemployment Claims 235K 233K Neutral USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.50% 1.50% Positive USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.50% 0.20% Positive 9:50pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Impact: HighLowMedium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source investing.com, Reuters & ticker news.
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