Stagnation Generation: Exploring Intergenerational Fairness Georgia Gould Labour Councillor, London Borough of Camden Omar Khan Director, Runnymede Trust Hashtag for Twitter users: #LSELitFest John Hills Richard Titmuss Professor of Social Policy, LSE David Willetts Chair, Resolution Foundation Nona Buckley-Irvine Labour Party activist and former General Secretary of LSESU Hosted by the Resolution Foundation and the International Inequalities Institute
. Stagnation Generation: Exploring intergenerational fairness. LSE Literary Festival February 2017
Britain has gone through baby boom and bust Births per year (millions) by generation: UK Intergencommission.org 3
Generational pay progress was the 20 th Century norm Median real weekly pay by age for each generation: UK (RPIJ-adjusted) Intergencommission.org 4
Generational pay progress was the 20 th Century norm Median real weekly pay by age for each generation: UK (RPIJ-adjusted) Intergencommission.org 5
Generational pay progress was the 20 th Century norm Median real weekly pay by age for each generation: UK (RPIJadjusted) Intergencommission.org 6
Generational pay progress was the 20 th Century norm Median real weekly pay by age for each generation: UK (RPIJ-adjusted) Intergencommission.org 7
The British home ownership rollercoaster Home ownership rates by age for each generation: UK Intergencommission.org 8
The British home ownership rollercoaster Home ownership rates by age for each generation: UK Intergencommission.org 9
The British home ownership rollercoaster Home ownership rates by age for each generation: UK Intergencommission.org 10
The British home ownership rollercoaster Home ownership rates by age for each generation: UK Intergencommission.org 11
. Stagnation Generation: Exploring intergenerational fairness. LSE Literary Festival February 2017
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 The recession hit those born in the 1980s hardest Median hourly pay by age, % change 2006-08 to 2013 (%) 20 15 10 7.2 15.1 9.3 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-18.3-25 -6.1-4.4-6.2-4.3-9.9-11.7-13.6-0.1 0.3-20.9-12.7-15.5-3.1-1.7-0.9-2.8-4.6-6.3-6.6 MEN WOMEN Source: Labour Force Survey, full-time employees only
Housing costs and benefit cuts compounded this Change in median income after housing costs by age, 2007/8-2012/3 (%) 5% 0% -5% -10% -7.9% -6.5% -4.6% -7.3% -7.6% -6.4% -1.6% 2.6% -0.2% -2.5% -2.8% -15% -15.1% -10.9% -11.9% -12.7% -20% -17.9% -19.7% -25% Source: CASE/DWP analysis of HBAI dataset
Austerity hit the young harder than the old Protected: Schools Protected: Higher tax allowances Protected: - NHS - State pensions (better for some) - Winter fuel etc. Cuts: - Child Benefit - Allowances for staying at school - Youth provision Cuts: - Working age benefits (CPI/ limits on totals/ 3 years of real cuts) - Disability benefits - Housing Benefit - Council Tax Benefit - Tax credits - Student loan repayments Cuts: - Local Authority care for elderly - Age allowance in income tax - Higher pension age (but longevity)
But it may still all come out OK in the end? Projected lifetime receipts from health, education and social security, and taxes paid towards them by five year age cohort, 1901-2051, GB Incomplete lifetimes 1971 (to 80) 1966 (to 85) 1961 (to 90) Complete lifetimes 1956 1951 1946 1941 1936 1931 1926 1921 1916 1911 1906 1901 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cumulative totals in years of GDP per capita Tax Receipts
The big issue is now wealth differences by age? Household wealth by age,, 2010-12 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age Median
The big issue is now wealth differences by age and within age groups? Household wealth by age,, 2010-12 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 P90 P70 Median P30 P10 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age
which will make (unequal) inheritances far more important than for earlier generations Household wealth by age,, 2010-12 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 P90 P70 Median P30 P10 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age
. Stagnation Generation: Exploring intergenerational fairness. LSE Literary Festival February 2017
Stagnation Generation: Exploring Intergenerational Fairness Georgia Gould Labour Councillor, London Borough of Camden Omar Khan Director, Runnymede Trust Hashtag for Twitter users: #LSELitFest John Hills Richard Titmuss Professor of Social Policy, LSE David Willetts Chair, Resolution Foundation Nona Buckley-Irvine Labour Party activist and former General Secretary of LSESU Hosted by the Resolution Foundation and the International Inequalities Institute