MONTHLY REVIEW MARCH 2012 12 MARCH 2012
INDEX CONTENTS PAGE NO. INDICES IN FOCUS NIFTY OVERVIEW 3 BANK NIFTY OVERVIEW 4 STOCKS IN FOCUS ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE 5 ABAN OFFSHORE LTD 6 BOMBAY DYEING & MANUFACTURING COMPANY LTD 7 LANCO INFRATECH LTD 8 FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTION LTD 9 GAIL (INDIA) LTD 10 IVRCL LTD 11 PATEL ENGINEERING LTD 12 COMMODITY IN FOCUS GOLD 13 SILVER 14 DISCLAIMER 15 2
NIFTY OVERVIEW Technically, Nifty has formed an interesting setup. From the start of the calendar year 2012, Nifty had a strong rally. So strong that Nifty broke a long term trendline resistance with ease. And now it has corrected and re-tested this trendline. In the technical analysis parlance, once a resistance is broken, it acts as a support in future. Not only the above setup, on the weekly basis Nifty has given a doji candlestick with bullish implications. In terms of events, the week ahead is expected to be action packed with multiple events viz. IIP numbers, inflation numbers, RBI policy and the Union budget. The surprise CRR cut by 75 bps is expected to lead the market to a gap up opening on 12 March 2012 and we believe short covering would add fuel to the fire. Post that the movements in the market would be guided by the events. For Nifty, a rise above 5385, Nifty can rise to 5515-5690 levels. On the downside, major support lies at 5160 where the 50 dma and 200 dma meet. (dma day moving average). Weekly Candlestick Chart of Nifty (spot) 3
BANK NIFTY OVERVIEW Bank Nifty too has a setup similar to Nifty. On weekly basis, Bank Nifty has hammer candlestick pattern. A hammer pattern candlestick suggest reversal and found after a correction. The surprise CRR cut by 75 bps will also have a strong positive effect on banking stocks. A rise above 10600, can trigger buying action in Bank Nifty. On the upside, the near term targets or resistance for bank nifty are 11150-11750. And supports lie at 10000. Weekly Candlestick Chart of Bank Nifty 4
STOCKS IN FOCUS ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE BSE Code: 500315 NSE Symbol: ORIENTBANK P/E : 6.90 ISIN Demat: INE141A01014 Div & Yield %: 3.63 EPS : 41.48 Book Value: 349.97 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 8358.92 Face Value : 10 Recommendation : BUY ABOVE 294 Last Close : 286.50 Targets : 328-361-390 Stop loss: 260 (on closing basis) On the weekly basis, OBC has given hammer candlestick pattern. A Hammer is a bullish reversal candle pattern. Further, after a long time, the stock is in the process making higher tops and higher bottoms, which is a key indicator that the stock is reversing from its downtrend. OBC can be bought above 294, for the medium term targets of 328-361-390. To trade safe, trade with stop losses in place. 5
STOCKS IN FOCUS ABAN OFFSHORE LTD BSE Code: 523204 NSE Symbol: ABAN P/E : 0 ISIN Demat: INE421A01028 Div & Yield %: 0.74 EPS : 0 Book Value: 466.91 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 2096.26 Face Value : 2 Recommendation : BUY ABOVE 490 Last Close : 482.55 Targets : 527-569-631. Stop loss: 445 (on closing basis) Aban Offshore is has recently seen a bullish crossover of 50 dma over 200 dma. Further, the stock has risen after taking support near 200 dma and at a support level around 450. On weekly basis, the stock has given a hammer candlestick pattern which is bullish for the stock. The stock can be bought above 490 for the medium term targets of 527-569-631. 6
STOCKS IN FOCUS BOMBAY DYEING & MANUFACTURING COMPANY LTD BSE Code: 500020 NSE Symbol: BOMDYEING P/E : 0 ISIN Demat: INE032A01015 Div & Yield %: 0.79 EPS : 0 Book Value: 78.3 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 1790.35 Face Value : 10 Recommendation : SELLBELOW 430 Last Close : 434.15 Targets : 421-412-398 Stop loss: 440 (on closing basis) Bombay Dyeing has recently broken a trendline. Further in the short term charts it has made lower top lower bottom formation, indicating a downtrend. The stock can be sold below 430, post entry stop loss can be kept at 440. Trade for the targets of 421-412-398. 7
STOCKS IN FOCUS LANCO INFRATECH LTD BSE Code: 532778 NSE Symbol: LITL P/E : 31.90 ISIN Demat: INE785C01048 Div & Yield %: 0 EPS : 0.63 Book Value: 14.1 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 4839.67 Face Value : 1 Recommendation : BUY AT CMP Last Close : 20.05 Targets : 22-26-30 Stop loss: 17.80 (on closing basis) Lanco Infra has recently taken support at its 200 dma and bounced back. Further, a trendline too gives support to the prices (as shown in the figure below). The stock has shown strong volume action in the last one month and it suggests accumulation in the stock. Buy the stock with the medium term targets of 22-26-30. 8
STOCKS IN FOCUS FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTION LTD BSE Code: 532809 NSE Symbol: FSL P/E : 9.84 ISIN Demat: INE684F01012 Div & Yield %: 0 EPS : 1.14 Book Value: 21.42 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 483.32 Face Value : 10 Recommendation : BUY AT CMP Last Close : 11.25 Targets : 13-15-17 Stop loss: 10.10 (on closing basis) In our February 2012 monthly report, we had recommended to buy FSL at Rs8.75. Post that the stock rose to Rs15.4 giving a return of 76%. FSL has again become an attractive buy. The stock has recently taken support at a trendline support has bounced back. The volume action in the stock suggests accumulation. The stock can be bought for the near term targets of 13-15-17. 9
STOCKS IN FOCUS GAIL (INDIA) LTD BSE Code: 532155 NSE Symbol: GAIL P/E : 11.18 ISIN Demat: INE129A01019 Div & Yield %: 2.15 EPS : 31.17 Book Value: 151.78 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 44238.24 Face Value : 10 Recommendation : SELLBELOW 345 Last Close : 349.15 Targets : 336-327-320 Stop loss: 357 (on closing basis) Gail is trading below its 50 dma and 200 dma. Further, the stock is consistently making lower tops and lower bottoms, indicating downtrend in it. A break below 345 (spot) can take the stock down to 336-327-320. The stock can be sold. Post selling, keep the stop loss at 357 (spot). 10
STOCKS IN FOCUS IVRCL LTD BSE Code: 530773 NSE Symbol: IVRCLINFRA P/E : 17.64 ISIN Demat: INE875A01025 Div & Yield %: 1.08 EPS : 3.12 Book Value: 74.33 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 1469.83 Face Value : 2 Recommendation : BUY ABOVE 56.30 Last Close : 55.05 Targets : 60-66-75 Stop loss: 48.40 (on closing basis) IVRCL Ltd has shown strong volume action in the last few weeks. This shows accumulation in the stock. The stock has recently broken the previous tops and now is in the process of making higher tops and higher bottoms, indicating uptrend. The stock can be bought above 56.30 for the targets of 60-66-75. 11
STOCKS IN FOCUS PATEL ENGINEERING LTD BSE Code: 531120 NSE Symbol: PATELENG P/E : 8.51 ISIN Demat: INE244B01030 Div & Yield %: 0.90 EPS : 13.03 Book Value: 191.11 Market Cap (Rs Cr.): 774.43 Face Value : 1 Recommendation : BUY ABOVE 114 Last Close : 110.95 Targets : 127-141-154 Stop loss: 100 (on closing basis) Patel engineering has recently broken its long term trendline resistance. And is now taking support at it. The current correction should be used to buy the stock for the targets of 127-141-154. Buy above 114. 12
COMMODITY IN FOCUS GOLD MCX Gold CMP Rs27982 Support: 27850-27165 Resistance: 28620-29350 Comex Gold CMP - $1713 Support: 1705-1663 Resistance: 1752-1797 After strongly bounced back in the previous week after falling strongly in the week before. This has made a setup bullish and further rise can be expected. Thus corrections, if any, should be used to buy Gold. Watch for our daily calls for trades. Weekly chart of Comex Gold 13
COMMODITY IN FOCUS SILVER MCX Silver CMP Rs59052 Support: 57000-55880 Resistance: 62350-65600 Comex Silver CMP - $34.34 Support: 33.15-32.50 Resistance: 36.26-38.15 The bounce back in the previous week has created a hammer candlestick pattern in Comex Silver. A hammer is a reversal pattern and consequently an upmove cant be ruled out. Thus any correction in silver prices can be used to buy. Follow our sms during the market hours for trades. Weekly chart of Comex Silver 14
DISCLAIMER Created by: Inventure Research Contact : Research Coordinator, Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd,201,Viraj Tower, Near Landmark Building, Western Express Highway, Andheri (East),Mumbai -400 069 Tele: 91-22-39548500 Extension :577, Fax: 91-22-40751535. E-mail: milan.bavishi@inventuregrowth.com, website : http://www.inventuregrowth.com/ Notice: This document is prepared by Mr. Milan Bavishi. Research for Inventure Group for private circulation exclusively for their clients. Disclosure: We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company/companies mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company / companies discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company / companies or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here in. Disclaimer: This document has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. The material is based upon technical reading of the Graph. Though utmost care is taken by the writer of this document, and it should be relied upon as such. Neither Mr. Milan Bavishi of Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd. nor any person connected with any of these entities accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed herein the report are our own and are based on Technical Research as of the date appearing in this document only. Reports based on Technical Analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report based on a company's fundamentals. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward- looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that may not exactly adhere to the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and /or redistributed without Mr. Milan Bavishi s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. 15
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