30 January, 2018 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Currency Pair Close % Change Currency Pivot Levels OI % Change Prev. OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 63.78 0.07 8.39 19.13 63.8675 63.7775 63.7100 EURINR 79.18 0.07 32.03 21.82 79.3167 79.2083 79.0817 GBPINR 89.85 1.28 16.7 17.09 90.2133 89.9917 89.6133 JPYINR 58.69 0.33 81.99 10.04 58.8242 58.6433 58.5342 Foreign Currency Update * R= Resistance. S = Support Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 89.17 0.34 EURUSD 1.2382 0.36 GBPUSD 1.4075 0.60 JPYUSD 108.95 0.33. USDINR 26 February, 2018 Expiry Option Update Options LTP %Chg OI %Chg OI CE 64.25 0.1225 3.92 83298 15.54 CE 64.00 0.26 0.00 113088 17.99 CE 63.75 0.50 1.52 42890 54.11 CE 63.50 0.8725 3.87 20400 25.7 PE 64.25 0.8175 5.49 44966 31.88 PE 64.00 0.46 8.91 95958 21.27 PE 63.75 0.205 17.17 87519 62.64 PE 63.50 0.0775 20.51 66046 14.11 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating positive move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate (January 29, 2018) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91 0731 4262718 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 63.5479 89.8237 78.8682 58.3800 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (February Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Dollar/rupee ended up Monday on buying by nationalized banks amid month end dollar demand by oil importers while greenback erased its losses against other major currencies on short covering after Trump contradicting US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's view of preferring a weak dollar to support US exports amid upbeat US economic data. Technical, USDINR remained somewhat neutral and settled at 63.80, almost unchanged. Intraday price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick which creating probability for indecisive trend for short time. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 63.58 breaks below will expect to test 63.30 and below, else any rise towards 64.00 is expect to attract near term selling activities. Recommendation: LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 63.78 63.90 64.00 63.60 64.15 Daily Chart Important Factor: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence EURINR (February Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Euro/Rupee traded down during European trades Monday as the dollar rebounded after US President Donald Trump said he favours a strong currency. Technical, EURINR retreated from its day high 79.3350 and settled at 79.19 levels. However, pair yet trading above its previous swing support 78.80 which still creating probability for bullishness. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 78.80 below it only will expect to test 77.80 77.60. Recommendation LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 79.18 79.00 79.45 78.80 0 Daily Important Factor : German Prelim CPI m/m
GBPINR(February Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Pound/rupee traded down during European trades Monday as the dollar rebounded after US President Donald Trump said he favours a strong currency.. Technical, GBPINR has stalled its recent bullish trend and retreated more than 1.20%, settled at 89.8350 levels. Evening star candle stick pattern was noted on the EOD chart which is indicating for trend reversal in GPBINR and below 89.60 pair could see drastic fall towards 89.00 and below. Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 89.85 89.90 89.60 89.20 90.35 Daily Chart Important Factor: BOE Gov Carney Speaks JPYINR ( February Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Yen traded up Monday as investors covered their short positions taking advantage of the sharp fall in pair after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave seemingly conflicting statements on the benefits of a weaker dollar. Technical, JPYINR extended its recent bullish trend for third consecutive day and settled at 58.72, up 0.33%. On the EOD chart, pair has broken its 29 November 2018 swing high 58.40 and formed a long bullish candle stick both of which indicating for bullishness. On the downside, 58.40 will act as a crucial support below it will expect to test 58.00. Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy around 58.60 Stop loss 58.69 Target 58.85 59.00 58.40 Daily Chart Important data : Unemployment Rate
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Japan jobs to applicants ratio rose to 1.59 from 1.56 in November, which is more than the median forecast of 1.57 and the highest since January 1974. Japan Retail sales jumped 3.6 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with a median market forecast for a 1.8 percent increase. That also marked the biggest increase since a 4.9 percent annual increase in April 2015. Japanese household spending, which is different from retail sales because it is based on surveys sent to a small sample of consumers, fell 0.1 percent in December from a year earlier in price adjusted real terms. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 5:00am JPY Household Spending y/y 1.60% 1.70% Negative JPY Unemployment Rate 2.70% 2.70% Neutral 5:20am JPY Retail Sales y/y 2.10% 2.20% Negative 10:30am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.50% 0.60% Negative 12:00pm EUR French Flash GDP q/q 0.50% 0.60% Negative All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.50% 0.60% Negative 1:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.40% 2.20% Negative 1:30pm EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.70% 0.80% Negative 3:00pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8B 4.9B Neutral GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.20% 0.10% Positive GBP Mortgage Approvals 66K 65K Negative 3:30pm EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.60% 0.60% Neutral Tentative EUR Italian 10 y Bond Auction 1.86 1.8 7:30pm USD S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI y/y 6.30% 6.40% Negative 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 123.2 122.1 Positive 9:00pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks Impact: HighLowMedium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source investing.com, Reuters & ticker news.
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e mail: research@indianivesh.in Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.