Weekly outlook for April 23, 2018 Summary The S&P 500 index is expected to go down further if price stays below the 2700 level. A weekly doji candle formed on the intermediate-term chart, and the short-term rally failed to reach the top of the triangle pattern. A drop below 2675 will be bearish. Oil is expected to retrace in the early days of the week, the rally again later. The price has moved past the former resistance area around $65-$66, which now becomes support. The next target is $75. GOLD is expected to hold above the $1320-10 zone and rally from that point if the support around $1330 fails to hold. The market has been stuck in a three-month-long trading range. It needs to break the 2016 high to move out of this range, but the recent strength in the US dollar is working against it. Page 1 of 8
SP500 index (ES mini, and SPY): LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: Up Trade strategy: flat The long term trend is up, but both monthly PMO and STO indicator are heading down, away from overbought territory. 2480 remains the first long-term support area INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: neutral Trade strategy: short on bounce The intermediate-term trend is neutral. A weekly doji candle formed this week which looks like a bearish sign. The weekly PMO indicator continues to fall. Weak internal strength could change the direction of the intermediate-term trend. At a minimum, expect the 50-wEMA line to be challenged again soon. Page 2 of 8
SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: flat Trade strategy: short on major resistance at 2725 SP500 index failed to rally into the top of the triangle pattern last week. However the selling in the last two days on heavy volume could be associated with option expiration. PMO indicator is getting ready to top soon, which could be a negative sign. This week the 2675 area could be key. A move below it will be bearish. The 200-dEMA line could be retested again. Weekly Option Strike price 2725 Expiration Date Strike price Expiration Date Meanline 2685 04/23/18 **** 4/25,27/2018 2600 **** see daily trading plan Page 3 of 8
2. Oil ($WTIC, CL) LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy The long-term direction is up and bullish. $75-$78 upside target should be expected. INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on early retracement Oil intermediate-term trend is up. Oil broke out of the range established in the first three months of this year. The weekly PMO indicator moved up and has a buy signal. The full measurement target for the breakout will be around the $75.15 area. The next strong resistance after that will be $78. Page 4 of 8
SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on dip above $64 line. Oil had a decisive breakout last week. The $66-$65 zone is expected to hold the price up and help oil move higher. $75 will be the upside target. Page 5 of 8
3. GOLD (GC, GLD) LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: flat The long-term trend is up. But slow STO indicator is getting overbought and has a selling sign. Gold could return to its monthly EMA lines. INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on support Intermediate-term trend is up. The weekly PMO indicator holds up, but has lower highs. Strong moves up in the US$ recently decreased the desire for Gold. Price needs to exceed the 2016 top before a long-term rising trend will be in force. Otherwise Gold will remain inside a long-term triangle. Page 6 of 8
SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: neutral Trade strategy: range trading method: Scalping short on strong bounce at top and buy on range bottom. Gold remains within its four-month trading range. Daily PMO indicator turns down again. The sentiment went negative again. Even though the EMAs are still positive, it needs a strong price move to bring positive sentiment back. $1330 will be a key line for this week. A failure to hold above this level will likely send Gold down toward the $1320-1310 zone again. At that point we would expect to see some buying activity again. Page 7 of 8
WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORTS Page 8 of 8