Commodities Daily 1 September 2009 Focus: Copper Forward Curve The rally in copper prices over the past month appears to have been driven predominantly by the addition of new long positions, with the front part of the curve moving first, then the back end of the curve playing catch up. The exception has been the Sept-09 and Dec-10 contracts, which have seen open interest decline over the past month, indicating some short covering activity has taken place. This morning has seen the LME metals all open lower than Friday s closing figures, with the complex having a bit of a shake out after the long weekend. Another improvement in the Chinese PMI, which increased from 53.3, to 54.0, in August, has lent some stability to the metals, however, after a period of sideways trading during the morning, a stronger dollar has started to weigh on prices heading into the afternoon. Walter de Wet +44 (20) 3145 6821 Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com +44 (20) 3145 6822 Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Manqoba Madinane +27 (11) 378 7220 Manqoba.Madinane@standardbank.com Platinum benefited from reports of a 2.3% y/y increase in August Japanese vehicle sales this morning. While the data is positive, we caution that y-o-y comparisons may become a little misleading over the coming months as the August through December 2008 period, with which the comparisons are being made, was the period last year that saw global economic activity fall off a cliff. We note that the front-month WTI/Brent crude oil differential has climbed back into positive territory, coming in at $0.20/bbl this morning. Commodity price data (31 August 2009) Base metals LME 3-month Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle Change in cash settle Cash 3m Aluminium 1,858 1,885 1,890 1,840 16 0.86 1,833.00-24 -33.00 Copper 6,290 6,271 6,352 6,222-16 -0.25 6,261.00-44 -12.50 Lead 2,035 2,012 2,065 1,999-40 -1.95 2,020.50-57 -15.25 Nickel 18,974 18,760 19,304 18,749-320 -1.68 19,390.00-110 26.00 Tin 13,900 14,000 14,200 13,875 125 0.90 14,250.00 25 215.00 Zinc 1,830 1,831 1,858 1,815-15 -0.81 1,818.00-7 -27.50 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ICE Brent 69.65 70.10 70.10 69.50 0.45 0.64% NYMEX WTI 69.56 70.42 70.43 69.55 0.46 0.65% ICE Gasoil 567.00 571.25 571.75 566.50 8.50 1.49% API2 Q3'09 71.35 70.70 - - -0.65-0.92% ICE EUA Dec09 15.25 14.98 - - -0.27-1.77% AM Fix PM Fix High bid Low offer Closing bid Change (d/d) EFPs Gold 950.75 955.50 960.00 944.00 951.50-5.50 1.0/1.40 Silver - 14.97 14.90 14.56 14.90 0.11 0.5/2.5 Platinum 1,235.00 1,234.00 1,247.00 1,240.00 1,238.00-4.00 1/4 Palladium 284.50 285.00 291.00 290.00 291.00 3.00 0/3 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Focus: Copper forward curve The rally in copper prices over the past month appears to have been driven predominantly by the addition of new long positions, with the front part of the curve moving first, then the back end of the curve playing catch up. The chart plots the evolution of copper forward curve over the past month, vs. the open interest by prompt date. The front part of the curve was the first to move at the start of the month, with the Dec-12 and Dec-13 contracts catching up over the past couple of weeks. Looking along the forward curve, the general trend has been rising prices and rising open interest, suggesting new long positions have been added, both in the nearby and far-dated portions of the curve. The exception has been the Sept-09 and Dec-10 contracts, which have seen open interest decline over the past month, indicating some short covering activity has taken place. The increase in prices and open interest at the beginning of the month was focused in the more liquid nearby portion of the curve, lending weight to the view that the rally was primarily driven by investor flows. As the month has progressed however, the activity further along the curve suggests that the recent run of better than expected economic data is also starting to feed through to sentiment generally. Given copper s recent price history, it will be interesting to see if Copper forward curve & open interest by prompt date $/mt 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Source: Standard Bank, LME, Bloomberg open interest 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 OI - 08/27/09 OI - 08/18/2009 OI - 07/31/09 FW - 08/27/09 FW - 08/18/2009 FW - 07/31/09 current price levels towards the back end of the curve start to attract significant producer hedging activity, or whether the metal s spectacular journey from $8,940 to $2,817 - in the space of only 125 trading days late last year - has been well and truly forgotten. 0 Base metals Although London had the luxury of a long weekend, metals traded on the SHFE and on Comex as normal on Monday, albeit with reduced liquidity. As such, the sharp fall in Shanghai equity prices on Monday, plus concerns over news reports, that China s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission had suggested that state-owned enterprises reserved the right to unilaterally default on OTC commodity hedge contracts, saw metals prices decline sharply. As an example, copper traded down to a low of $6,140 on Spectron on Monday, though this is not recorded by the Bloomberg or Reuters price feeds. This morning has seen the LME metals all open lower than Friday s closing figures, with the complex having a bit of a shake out after the long weekend. Another improvement in the Chinese PMI, which increased from 53.3, to 54.0, in August, has lent some stability to the metals, however, after a period of sideways trading during the morning, a stronger dollar has started to weigh on prices heading into the afternoon. Looking ahead, attention will likely focus on this afternoon s key US economic data, with the ISM Manufacturing data (expected at 50.5) Construction Spending (expected unchanged m-o-m) and Pending Home Sales (expected +1.6% m-o-m). The numbers are all being released at 15:00 UK time. In other news, concerns over the Chinese clampdown on lead smelting operations continues to rumble on, with newswire reports that China s Yunnan province is investigating a possible lead poisoning incident in Kunming and that the provincial government is casting its eye over up to 500 ktpy of smelting capacity in Gejiu city. The stories have given the metal a boost, with 3-month prices reaching a high of $2,150 during early trade, before declining to just below the $2,100 level. As noted previously, copper came under heavy pressure in New York on Monday. Prices have since recovered from those levels, opening this morning at $6,310, however a stronger dollar have seen prices retreat back around $6,250 heading into the afternoon. Of note available LME inventory declined by 3,400 mt this morning following a 4,800 mt jump in cancelled warrants in New Orleans. The data had little impact on prices however, with the dollar running the show. Elsewhere, Nickel came under pressure, following another large increase in LME stocks. The main location for the inflow was again Rotterdam, with on-warrant stocks climbing by 3,036 mt. On-warrant stocks at that location have climbed by 11,358 mt since the beginning of August. 2
Weaker crude oil prices and a 6.7% fall in the Shanghai Composite equity index weighed on precious metals on Monday. The metals have recovered slightly this morning, however fluctuations in the dollar are dictating short term price direction. We note that global equity index futures are pricing-in gains in Europe and the US today - this may help lend support to the precious metals, though much still depends on this afternoon s economic data. Gold found support at $950 in Asia this morning before rising to $955 ahead of European trade. We note that gold holdings by the Julius Baer ETF have climbed to a record 1.98 million ounces. Furthermore, ETF Securities Ltd s gold investment holdings also gained 6.1% w/w to 7.989 million ounces we believe this should help support price momentum, though we note that holdings by the SPDR Gold Trust ETF have remained steady at 1,061.83 metric tonnes. Platinum benefited from reports of a 2.3% y/y increase in August Japanese vehicle sales this morning, with the data helping to offset the previous month s 4.2% y/y contraction in July. While the data is positive, we caution that y-o-y comparisons may become a little misleading over the coming months as the August through December 2008 period, with which the comparisons are being made, was the period last year that saw global economic activity fall off a cliff. Nevertheless, the vehicle sales data saw platinum find support at $1,238 in Asia before rallying to $1,256 in early London trade this morning. We note that ETF securities Ltd s platinum investment holdings have risen 0.7% w/w to 330,762oz this should also support prices, as should the on-going strike at Impala Platinum in South Africa. The strike has now entered its 8th day. The action is starting to raise PGM supply-side risks which should lend support to platinum and rhodium. After climbing from $286 to $292 in New York yesterday, palladium has range-traded between $293 and $290 this morning despite a 3.5% increase in ETF securities Ltd s palladium investment holdings to 389,941oz. Support and resistance are at $287 and $294 respectively. By Manqoba Madinane and A global equity market slump, with the Shanghai Composite and DJIA shedding 6.7% and 0.5%, weighed on the energy complex yesterday. Front-month WTI crude encountered resistance at $73.36/bbl in Asia before nose-diving to $69.12/bbl in New York. However, positive Asian economic data and improved Japanese vehicle sales, have helped support crude oil this morning, with front-month WTI crude oil climbing from $69.60/bbl to $70.44/bbl between Asian and early London trade. Today s US ISM Manufacturing and Pending home sales data will likely impact on prices in New York later today. Front-month ICE Brent crude oil found support at $69.50/bbl in Asia and rallied to $70.20/bbl in London this morning. We note that the front-month WTI/Brent crude oil differential has climbed back into positive territory after turning negative on Thursday at $0.20/bbl this morning. Thermal coal export tonnage at Australia s Newcastle Coal terminal climbed 23% w/w to 1.95 million tonnes while the shipping queue at the port fell to 42 vessels last week, from 50 vessels 2 weeks ago. Coal stockpiles at the Newcastle Coal Terminal have meanwhile gained 4.18% and 2.93% at Carrington and Kooragang respectively signaling some signs of thermal coal demand weakness in the Asia-Pacific region. Carbon emission contracts came under pressure yesterday amid weaker energy prices. Active-year ICE EUA shed EUR0.27/ mtco2 to EUR14.98/mtCO2. UN-backed CER for December 2009 delivery slipped EUR0.10/mtCO2 to EUR13.35/mt. By Manqoba Madinane 3
Base metals Daily LME stock movement (mt) Metal Today Yesterday In Out One day change YTD change (mt) Contract turnover Aluminium 4,614,350 4,613,725 5,375 4,750 625 2,284,825 138,775 3.01 130,056 Copper 298,925 297,550 1,700 325 1,375-42,225 7,200 2.41 73,203 Lead 120,950 120,775 175-175 75,625 1,475 1.22 27,440 Nickel 113,442 112,026 1,620 204 1,416 33,636 1,704 1.50 22,875 Tin 19,765 19,625 145 5 140 11,835 885 4.48 7,946 Zinc 434,600 434,925-325 -325 181,425 9,450 2.17 38,993 Shanghai 3-month forward prices ZAR metal prices (31 August 2009) Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ZAR/USD fix Cash 14,395 49,171 15,868 152,279 111,912 14,278 7.8535 3-month 15,053 50,076 16,068 149,815 111,803 14,622 7.9859 futures pricing Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change 1-month forward 2-month forward 3-month forward 6-month forward 1-year forward Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) 74.99-4.63 75.51-4.58 76.22-4.51 78.94-4.29 - - Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) 571.25 8.50 577.50 8.25 576.25-33.50 597.25-32.25 634.75-30.25 NWE CIF jet ($/mt) 611.68-34.00 618.52-33.66 625.08-33.35 653.35-31.95 698.73-30.25 Singapore Kero ($/bbl) 74.89-4.93 76.46-4.78 77.67-4.66 80.89-4.34 86.36-4.07 3.5% Rdam barges ($/mt) 415.74-0.04 412.33-0.18 410.21 0.17 412.98 0.53 419.59-0.13 1% Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) 426.99-0.04 428.08-0.18 431.21 0.17 444.73 0.53 463.09-0.13 Sing FO 380 Cargo ($/mt) 435.58-0.43 432.46-0.08 433.04 1.72 433.49 0.36 - - Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) 439.99-0.04 438.33-0.18 435.96 0.17 436.73 0.53 - - Thermal coal Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Cal 11 Cal 12 API2 (CIF ARA) 70.70-0.65 86.20-0.05 80.70-0.30 94.50-0.05 101.25 0.20 API4 (FOB RBCT) 64.70 0.10 75.75-0.20 71.70-0.40 84.50-0.05 90.75 0.20 Carbon Spot Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 ICE - ECX EUA ( /mt) 14.93-0.27 14.98-0.27 15.35-0.28 15.98-0.27 17.00-0.26 ICE - ECX CER ( /mt) 13.35-0.15 13.35-0.10 13.15-0.10 13.15-0.10 13.45-0.09 Forwards (%) 1-month 2-month 3-month 6-month 12-month Gold 0.28500 0.29833 0.33333 0.41333 0.62167 Silver 0.45833 0.45833 0.50333 0.52833 0.60833 USD Libor 0.25875 0.28000 0.34750 0.75500 1.33000 Technical Indicators 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance Gold 52.96 948.79 949.45 934.89 909.81 945.00 961.00 Silver 57.33 14.38 14.45 13.95 12.99 14.68 15.10 Platinum 54.78 1,242.11 1,247.25 1,189.36 1,092.25 1,238.00 1,253.00 Palladium 63.14 284.35 279.51 249.03 223.10 287.00 294.00 Active Month Future COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD Aug'09 Jul'09 Jul'09 Jul'09 Jun'09 Apr'10 Jun'09 Settlement 954.70 14.9650 294.00 1,244.00 953.00 2,864.00 953.50 Open Interest 393,013 104,810 22,391 27,165 1,078 87,859 2,991 Change in Open Interest 17,792 4,453 704 37 0 3,922 105 Date: 31 August 2009 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Cancelled warrants (mt) COMEX active month future prices Cancelled warrants (%) Metal Open Last 1d Change Open Close Change Change (%) Aluminium 14,860 14,950 45 Ali Sep'09 92 92.75 1.25 1.37% Copper 49,100 49,220-530 Cu Sep'09 283 288.70 6.05 2.14% Zinc 14,870 14,920-5 4
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