Forecast Version: Spring 216 Economic Indicators The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 287, in June with the unemployment rate rising.2% to 4.9%. The jobs gains primarily occurred in hospitality and healthcare. Total construction spending (real SAAR) shrank 1.6% on a yearover-year basis in June. Nonresidential construction grew by 1.8%. Residential (-1.) and public spending (-6.3%) both fell. With the onset of somewhat slower economic growth anticipated for the next two years, job creation is expected to slow to roughly 2.4 million net new jobs in 216 and 2.3 million net new jobs in 217. Residential Construction From Jume 215, residential spending (real SAAR) fell 1. due to a 9.% fall in improvements. Singlefamily and multifamily were up.6% and 11.8%, respectively. In June, there were 1,189, housing starts, an addition of 54, (4.8%) from May. Of those 1,189, starts, 778, were for single family homes, a rise from 745, previously. Compared to June of 215, there have been 24, less total starts. PCA reduced its outlook in March for residential construction activity. Total starts activity is now expected to reach 1.2 million in 216 and 1.25 million in 217. Nonresidential Construction From June 215, nonresidential spending climbed by 1.8%. Nearly every sub-market improved, with the exception of office and educational. There was a -1.8% month-over-month change. There was no significant directional movement in the amount of jobs in the nonresidential sector, now at 74,975 thousand jobs, up.3% from last month. The three month average (74,849,133) compared to the yearly average (74,31,462), shows recent improvment. Growth in net operating income (NOI) will play a key role in the nonresidential market. It s strengthening will play an increasingly important role in determining asset appreciation in the years ahead influencing total ROI. To this end, nonresidential NOI is tied to job creation. Public Construction Public construction spending (real, SAAR) declined 6.3% from June 215. All sectors acted as drags, except for defense spending. Month-over-month, there was a 1.1% decline in public construction. On the local level, the number of government jobs increased by.12% from last month. Federal and State jobs were both up,.7% and.6%, respectively. For June, local government employment was at 14.23 million, state held 5.11 million, and federal held 2.78 million jobs. As the economy s momentum slows, and job creation softens slightly, states ability to spend will continue to expand, but eventually ratchet down to a slightly slower growth pace. Data current as of: August 5, 216 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Report Printed On: 8/5/216 1 Total Real Construction PIP Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Total Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Real Construction PIP) Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 5, 5, Res. Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Res. Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Res. Real Construction PIP) Nonresidential Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Nonresidential Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Nonresidential Real Construction PIP) Public Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Public Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Public Real Construction PIP) Next Forecast Release: Y-O-Y M-O-M Real GDP % Change (Q-O-Q) Job Gain/Loss ( SA) Y-O-Y -.4 2451 287 1.%.3% -1.6% -.8% Y-O-Y M-O-M Change in Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.2% 1.1% M-O-M (.) Change in Average Home Price 1.2% Change in Unemployment Change in Inflation.2 Change in Consumer Confidence (2) Total Real Construction PIP (.2) August 3, 216 Total Single Family Sales Change in Housing Starts -2% -.3% Res. Construction Employment 5.1% Res. Real Construction PIP Y-O-Y -2% -.4% Change in DJ REIT Index 17% (.4) Nonres Constr. Employment 2.8% 2.6% Public Employment.6%.1% Nonres. Real Construction PIP 2.7% Heavy & Civil Constr. Emp. -.1% -6.3% M-O-M 6.% Change in Corp Risk Prem (1.1) % of Banks Tightening Credit 9% Nonres. Employment. Real Personal Income.3% 1.8% -1.8%.2% 2 Yr Muni Yield Composite - - -.8% Real Public Expenditures 1.%.1% -.4% Public Real Construction PIP - -1.1%
4..6 216 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 3MMA 12MMA Forecast Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change General Economic Indicators Real GDP Growth (SAAR, % chng) - - 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.1 1.2% - - Inflation Rate 1.1% 1.% 1.% 1.1%.6% 1.2% 1.%.3% Consumer Sentiment Index (1985=1) 97 91-2.4% 5.4% Employment (, SA) Employment 143,877 143,888 144,175 143,98 143,25 145,53 1.7%.2% M-O-M Change in Employment 144 11 287 147 172-2,451 287 Unemployment Rate (%) 5. 4.7 4.9 4.9 5. 4.9 (.4).2 Total Construction Employment 6,659 6,643 6,643 6,648 6,557-3.4%.% M-O-M Change in Employment (6) (16) - (7) 17-217 - Residential Construction Employment 2,589 2,584 2,586 2,586 2,531-5..1% M-O-M Change in Employment (5) (5) 2 (3) 1-217 2 Nonresidential Construction Employment 3,125 3,122 3,125 3,124 3,87-2.8%.1% M-O-M Change in Employment 4 (2) 2 1 7-85 2 Heavy & Civil Engineering Constr. Employment 946 937 933 939 939 - -.1% -.4% Change in Employment (5) (9) (4) (6) - (3) (4) Interest Rates (%) Federal Funds Rate.4.4.4.4.3.5.3. LIBOR (1 month).4.4.5.4.3 -.3 (1.) Three Year Treasury.9 1..9.9 1. 1.5 (.2) (1.1) BAA Bond 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.8 (.6) (1.2) Key Residential Indicators Mortgage Rate 3 Yr Fixed (%) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4. (.2) (.) Median Existing Home Price (, SA) 233.7 23.8 23.1 231.6 226.8 32.2 5.% (.) Median New Home Price (, SA) 32.6 288.5 39.9 36.4 33.1-6.% 7.4% Home Affordability Index (24=1) 129.6 124.1-126. 127.9 - -.1%.% New Home Sales (, SAAR) 572 572 592 579 522-25.4% 3. Existing Home Sales (, SAAR) 4,81 4,88 4,92 4,87 4,742-3.1%.8% Months Supply of New Single Family Homes 5.1 5.1 4.9 5. 5.3 - (.6) (.2) Total Housing Starts (, SAAR) 1,155. 1,135. 1,189. 1,159.7 1,155.2 1,186. -2.% 4.8% Key Nonresidential Indicators Percent of Banks Tightening Lending Standards (%) 5. 5.8 6.6 5.8 1.1-9.2.8 Corporate Risk Premium (%) 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.1 - (.4) (1.1) Capacity Utilization (%) 75.2 74.9 75.4 75.2 75.8 76.4 (1.).4 Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - - - - Office Vacancy Rate - - - - - 13.4 - - Nonresidential Employment (, SA) 74,798 74,775 74,975 74,849 74,31-1.9%.3% Office Employment 31,134 31,127 31,225 31,162 3,89 31,477 2.3%.3% Retail Employment 15,92 15,923 15,952 15,932 15,793-2.%.2% Leisure Employment 15,446 15,443 15,52 15,464 15,315-2.7%.4% Manufacturing Employment 12,298 12,282 12,296 12,292 12,312 - -.2%.1% Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 245.3 25.7 265.7 253.9 238. - 17. 6.% Retail Dow Jones REIT Index 376.4 372.4 46.8 385.2 363.3-22. 9.2% Office Dow Jones REIT Index 339.7 339.2 354.9 344.6 327.1-11.6% 4.6% Industrial Dow Jones REIT Index 38.7 328. 354.7 33.5 284.2-42.7% 8.1% Key Public Indicators Personal Income (Billions, SAAR) 15,827 15,854 15,883 15,855 15,692-2.7%.2% State and Local Government Tax Collections (Billion $) - - - 2,354 2,347-2.7% -2.3% State and Local Government Expenditures (Billion $) - - 2,554 2,554 2,529-2.6% 1.% Public Debt Outstanding (Billion $) 19,187 19,265 19,382 19,278 18,75-6.8%.6% Government Employment (, SA) 22,83 22,8 22,97 22,99 22,53 -.6%.1% 2 Year Municipal Bond Yield Composite (%) - - - - - - - - SAAR= Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; SA = Seasonally Adjusted; NSA= Nonseasonally Adjusted; #MMA=# Month Moving Average; Y-O-Y= Year over Year; M-O-M= Month over Month; 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Change in Real GDP -2.% Jun-1 Apr-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15 Apr-16 Real GDP Growth (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 Construction Employment (, SA) 3 Jun 13 Oct 13 Feb 14 Jun 14 Oct 14 Feb 15 Jun 15 Oct 15 Feb 16 Jun 16 Construction Employment 6MMA 2
This Version: Current Dollars Real 29 Dollars 4..6 16/15 16/15 216 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Change Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Change Forecast Total 1,142,528 1,14,93 1,133,545.3% 994,399 99,172 982,172-1.6% 3.9% Month to Month % Change -2.9% -.1% -.6% -3.% -.4% -.8% Residential Buildings 445,499 445,99 445,82 2.6% 373,687 371,218 369,98-1. 5. Month to Month % Change -4.9%.1%.% -5.2% -.7% -.4% New Housing Units 32,199 31,142 299,369 6.9% 253,486 25,7 248,394 2.7% 9. Single Family 243,31 24,494 239,648 4.8% 24,82 2,211 198,842.6% 7.7% Multifamily 58,898 6,648 59,721 16.4% 49,44 5,489 49,552 11.8% 17.1% Improvements 143,3 144,767 146,451-5.2% 12,21 12,518 121,514-9.% -2.% Nonresidential Buildings 267,338 268,254 263,522 3.1% 242,429 243,39 238,931 1.8% 2.8% Month to Month % Change -1.3%.3% -1.8% -1.3%.4% -1.8% Manufacturing 74,91 73,936 7,575-1.4% 67,29 67,142 64,67-11.2% -5.6% Office 63,85 63,576 63,633 11.9% 58,11 57,911 57,951 1.7% 8.8% Lodging 25,883 26,615 26,768 17.4% 22,686 23,252 23,31 13.% 12.8% Health Care 24,234 25,12 24,748 2.4% 23,552 24,465 24,146 2.4% 3.7% Religious 4,287 3,876 3,961 4.% 3,759 3,388 3,451.1%.2% Educational 17,815 17,473 16,978-2.3% 15,637 15,348 14,921-3.1% 3.7% Commercial 57,223 57,658 56,859 9.7% 51,394 51,82 51,86 8.1% 5.2% Farm Nonresidential 1,817 1,919 1,641-1.9% 9,482 9,54 9,267-5. -3. Month to Month % Change 2.7%.9% -2. 2.3%.6% -2.9% Public Utility & Other 118,928 119,462 118,818 1.6% 13,212 13,687 13,129 2.4% 2.9% Month to Month % Change 1..4% -. 1.6%. -. Transportation 12,93 13,176 13,148 1.1% 11,469 11,696 11,655 -.6% - Power 87,455 87,483 86,882 3.4% 76,49 76,51 76,32 5.4% - Communication 18,57 18,83 18,788-5.8% 15,334 15,49 15,442-8.1% - Miscellaneous 5,435 51,723 52,7-4.9% 44,56 45,631 46,428-3.4% 4.3% Month to Month % Change -3. 2.6% 1.9% -3.7% 2.4% 1.7% Amusement 11,2 11,92 11,226 7.1% 9,658 9,689 9,775 3.% - Public Miscellaneous 39,415 4,631 41,474-4.1% 34,92 35,942 36,653-2.9% - Transportation 29,39 3,373 3,466-5.1% 26,51 26,96 27,6-6.8% - Power 9,291 9,467 1,223.1% 8,117 8,279 8,946 2.% - Communication 9 174 139-26.1% 74 143 114-27.9% - Manufacturing 725 617 646-13.4% 658 56 586-14.2% - Public Construction 249,511 244,636 242,44-6. 221,32 216,787 214,51-6.3% 3.3% Month to Month % Change -2.7% -2.% -1.1% 1% -2.7% -1.9% -1.1% 1% Public Buildings 17,792 14,366 13,19-5.1% 95,483 92,489 91,464-6.2% 3.2% Education 7,847 67,823 67,489-4.8% 62,184 59,576 59,31-5. - Healthcare 8,646 8,652 8,735 -.7% 8,43 8,426 8,522 -.6% - Commercial 3,462 3,516 3,6 4.6% 3,19 3,159 2,71 3.2% - Residential 6,249 6,11 5,741-11.8% 5,242 5,87 4,763-15.3% - Lodging 399 3 339-37.2% 35 262 295-39.6% - Religious -1.% - - - -1.% - Amusement 1,761 1,321 1,299-8.% 9,431 9,15 8,967-11.4% - Office 7,428 7,644 7,581-4.2% 6,765 6,963 6,94-5.2% - Highways & Streets 89,652 89,562 88,329-5.9% 79,879 79,91 78,889-4.3% 4.2% Public Safety 8,64 7,959 8,1-8.4% 7,185 7,1 7,154-6.9% -1.3% Conservation 7,692 8,374 8,323 8.3% 6,727 7,36 7,244 8.4% -2.1% Sewer Systems 24,331 22,252 21,669-14. 21,28 19,414 18,86-14. 4.4% Water Supply Systems 11,98 12,123 12,523-14.% 1,478 1,577 1,899-14.% 2.2% Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are on a 29 dollar basis and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 2 Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y % Change) 2 Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y % Change) 2% 1 2% 1 1% 1% % % - -1% - Total Residential Buildings -1 Nonresidential Buildings Public Construction 3
This Version: 4..6 216 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 3MMA 12MMA Forecast Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change Residential Construction Spending 373,687 371,218 369,98 371,64 381,588 5. -1. -.4% New Housing 253,486 25,7 248,394 25,86 256,454 9. 2.7% -.9% Single Family 24,82 2,211 198,842 21,45 27,678 7.7%.6% -.7% Multifamily 49,44 5,489 49,552 49,815 48,776 17.1% 11.8% -1.9% Improvements 12,21 12,518 121,514 12,744 125,134-2.% -9.%.8% New Home Affordability Single Family Median Home Price () 234 231 23 232 227 32 5.% -.3% Year to Year % Change 5.4 4.2 5. 4.9 5.9 - - - - - Conventional Mortgage Payment ($) 874 92-872 868-3.7% 3.2% Single Family Affordability Index (24=1) 13 124-126 128 - -.1% -.1% Multifamily Average Rent ($) 85.6 845.6 845 847 839-5. -.1% Mortgage to Rent Ratio 1. 1.1-1.2 1.4 - -1. 3.8% Vacancy Rate(%) - - 6.8 6.9 7.2 - - - Apartment Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 394.5 49.2 418.2 47.3 391.1-16. 2.2% Sales Activity (, SAAR) Total Single Family 5,382 5,452 5,512 5,449 5,263 5.2% 1.1% Year to Year % Change 7. 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.9.% - - - - Month to Month % Change 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2.6.% - - - - Existing Single Family 4,81 4,88 4,92 4,87 4,742 3.1%.8% Year to Year % Change 6. 4. 3.1 18.3 29.4.% - - - - Month to Month % Change 1. 1..8 28. 6.8.% - - - - New Single Family 572 572 592 579 522 25.4% 3. Year to Year % Change 14.4 12.8 25.4 17.5 1..% - - - - Month to Month % Change 6.5-3.5 3.3 1.3.% - - - - Sales Inventory (, SA) Total Single Family 2,3 2,27 1,999 2,19 2,51 - -4.2% -1.4% Months Supply 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 - -.1 -.4 Existing Single Family 1,789 1,786 1,755 1,777 1,82 - -6.2% -1.8% Months Supply 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.63 4.6 -. -.4 New Single Family 241 241 244 242 232-13.% 1.2% Months Supply 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.4 5.36 -.1 -.4 Foreclosures Completed Foreclosures % Change From Last Period Foreclosures In Process % Change From Last Period Seriously Delinquent % Change From Last Period New Modifications and Payment Plans Initiated % Change From Last Period Starts Activity (, SAAR) Total 1155 1,135 1,189 116 1155 1186-2.% 4.8% Year to Year % Change (3.1) 6.8 (2.).6 11.5 - - - - - Month to Month % Change 3.8 (1.7) 4.8 2.3 1.1 - - - - - Single Family 764 745 778 762 757 783 13.4% 4.4% Year to Year % Change 2.4 7.3 13.4 7.7 13.7 - - - - - Month to Month % Change 1.7 (2.49) 4.4 1.2 1.1 - - - - - Multifamily 391 39 411 397 398 43-22.% 5.4% Year to Year % Change (12.3) 5.7 (22.) (9.6) 8.4 - - - - - Month to Month % Change 8. (.3) 5.4 4.4 2. - - - - - Housing Stock () Existing Single Family - - - - - - - - - - Year to Year % Change - - - - - - - - - - Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Residential Starts Activity ( SAAR) Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Single Family Starts Multifamily Starts () 2% 1 1% % - Residential Sales Activity (% Change) -1% Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Single Family Sales ( SA) 12MMA 4
This Version: 4..6 216 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 3MMA 12MMA Forecast Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change Office Construction Spending 58,11 57,911 57,951 57,991 55,26 8.8% 1.7%.1% Office Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - 13.4 - - Office Property Rate of Return (%) - - 1.7 1.7% 2.3% - (1.4). Office Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 34 339 355 345 327-11.6% 4.6% Year to Year % Change. 1.1 12 - (2) - - - - - Office Employment (, SA) 31,134 31,127 31,225 31,162 3,89 31,477 2.3%.3% Change in Employment (, SA) 78 (7) 98 56 61 - - - - - Retail Construction Spending 51,394 51,82 51,86 51,427 5,428 5.2% 8.1% -1.4% Retail Property Rate of Return (%) - - 2.2 2.2 2.9 - (.8) (.8) Retail Sales (Millions $, SA) 453,397 454,359 456,978 454,911 449,427-2.7%.6% Year to Year % Change 3. 2.2 2.7-2. - - - - - Retail Inventories (Millions $, SA) 598,29 61,151-599,428 585,715-6.%. Year to Year % Change 5.4 6. - 1. 5. - - - - - Retail Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 376 372 47 385 363-22. 9.2% Year to Year % Change 6.9 5.3 22.5 1. 4. - - - - - Retail Employment (, SA) 15,92 15,923 15,952 15,932 15,793-2.%.2% Change in Employment (, SA) (2) 3 3 1.2 26.8 - - - - - Manufacturing Construction Spending 67,29 67,142 64,67 66,166 69,386-5.6% -11.2% -4.6% Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - - - - Industrial Property Rate of Return (%) - - 2.9 2.9 3.2 - (.9) (.1) Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 75.2 74.9 75.4 75.2 75.8 76.4 (1.).4 Advanced Durable Goods Orders (Millions $, SA) 232,28 231,589 232,464 232,87 234,288 - -2.%.4% Year to Year % Change (1.4) (1.1) (2.) - - - - - - - Wholesale Trade Inventories (Millions $, SA) 433,212 435,473-432,879 438,414 - -2.. Year to Year % Change (2.8) (2.5) - (2.5) (4.) - - - - - Manufacturing Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 39 328 355 331 284-42.7% 8.1% Year to Year % Change 19. 26.6 43 (2.) (14.) - - - - - Manufacturing Employment (, SA) 12,298 12,282 12,296 12,292 12,312 - -.2%.1% Change in Employment (, SA) 5 (16) 14 1 (2) - - - - - Leisure & Hospitality Construction Spending 9,658 9,689 9,775 9,77 9,396 12.8% 13.%.3% Tourism Sales Total (Millions $, SAAR) - - - 929,321 912,463-5.9% 2.% Tourism Sales Accommodations (Millions $, SAAR) - - - 18,493 178,172-5.%.7% Hotel Property Rate of Return (%) - - 1.5 1.5 2.3 - (2.1).3 Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 58,886886 - - 57,121 58,724-2.1% -4.% International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 8,342 - - 8,229 8,579-1. -6.9% Hotel Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 367 356 377 366.6 381.6 - -13.1% 5.6% Year to Year % Change (16.8) (18.7) (13) (2.) (14.) - - - - - Leisure Employment (, SA) 15,446 15,443 15,52 15,464 15,315-2.7%.4% Change in Employment (, SA) 15 (3) 59 24 34 - - - - - Healthcare Construction Spending 23,552 24,465 24,146 24,54 23,732 3.7% 2.4% -1.3% Healthcare Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 1,15 1,13 1,235 1,157 1,62-22.1% 9.2% Year to Year % Change.3 5.3 22 1. (2.) - - - - - Healthcare Employment (, SA) 19,47 19,94 19,153 19,98 18,867-3.2%.3% Change in Employment (, SA) 34 48 58 47 49 - - - - - Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y) % Change) 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Real Construction PIP (Y-O-Y % Change) -2% Manufacturing Office Educational -2% Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Healthcare Lodging 5
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 3MMA 12MMA Forecast Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change Public Construction Spending 221,31 216,787 214,51 217,443 22,944 3.3% -6.3% -1.1% Federal Government Construction 16,532 17,212 17,212 17,147 17,37-1.3% -2.7% Share of Federal Construction to Total Public Construction 7.5 8.2 8. 1. 8. -.6% -.1% Federal Balance (Millions $, NSA) Federal Receipts 144,769 237,786 226,9 22,882 26,992 - -11.4% -4.9% Federal Outlays 269,97 289,54 289,548 283,19 264,218-22.%.% Federal Deficit\Surplus (125,21) (51,754) (63,458) (8,138) (57,225) - (81,296) (11,74) Highway Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 3,513 4,295 5,482 4,43 4,52-13. 27.6% Outlays 3,57 2,799 3,325 3,21 9,257-3.2% 18.8% Deficit\Surplus (6) (1,496) (2,157) (1,22) 4,737 - Reserves 75,591 74,68 73,69 74,447 38,444-1 () Highway Trust Fund Indicators Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions, NSA) 232,598 24,437 226,511 233,182 242,582 - -1.3% -5.8% Gas Station Retail Sales (Millions $, NSA) 29,881 26,387 26,553 27,67 4,794 - -31.4%.6% Airport Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 1,13 1,277 1,52 1,294 1,336 - -24.7% 17.6% Outlays 1,274 1,14 1,335 1,25 1,163-1.8% 17.1% Deficit\Surplus 171 (137) (167) (44) (173) - (1) Reserves 13,245 13,185 13,91 13,174 12,989 - () () Airport Construction Indicators () Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 58,886 - - 57,121 58,724-2.1% -4.% International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 8,342 - - 8,229 8,579-1. -6.9% Domestic Revenue Cargo Tons 825,196 - - 89,967 816,824-2.2% -6.% International Revenue Cargo Tons 751,278 - - 78,714 744,21 - -3. -2.8% State & Local Government Construction 24,5 199,9 197,297 2,296 24,26 - -7.% -.9% Share of S&L Construction to Total Public Construction 92.5 91.8 92. 9. 92. - -.6%.1% State and Local Balance (Billions $, SAAR) State & Local Receipts - - - 2,354 2,347-2.7% -2.3% State & Local Outlays - - 2,554 2,554 2,529-2.6% 1.% State & Local Deficit\Surplus - - - (165) (174) - (17) (63) Revenue Sources (Billions $, SAAR) Gross Sales Tax - - 56 56 552-3.7% 1.2% Property Tax - - 461 461 459-1.1%.3% Income Taxes - - 48 48 49 -.4% -.9% Other Revenue Sources - - 87 87 927 - -3.2% -6.4% Municipal i Bond Average Yield (%) 2-Year Aaa - - - - - - Aa - - - - - - A - - - - - - Baa - - - - - - 1-Year Aaa - - - - - - Aa - - - - - - Personal Income (Billions $, SAAR) Total Personal Income 15,827 15,854 15,883 15,855 15,692 13,745 2.7%.2% Year to Year % Change 3.3 2.9 2.7-4. 2.5 - - - - Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 7 2 Yr. Composite Municipal Bond Yield (%, Seasoned) State & Local Deficit/Surplus (Billions $ SAAR) -5 6-1 5-15 -2 4-25 3-3 Jun-1 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Composite Muni Bond Rate 12MMA Implied State Deficit 4 Per. MA 6
Economic Indicators 4 Employment Situation 1. 4. Inflation Situation.4% Change in Employment (, SA) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Unemployment Rate (%) Inflation Rate 4.% 3. 3.% 2. 2.% 1. 1.%..%.4%.3%.3%.2%.2%.1%.1% Federal Funds Rate (%) Y-o-Y Change in Employment Unemployment Rate (%). -. Inflation (Y-o-Y % Change) Federal Funds Rate (%).% Residential Indicators Total Housing Starts (, SAAR) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Total Home Construction Total Housing Starts () Median Home Price ( SA) 25 2 15 1 5 Single Family Average Home Price (, SA) 3 Year Mortgage Rate (%) 5.% 4. 4.% 3. 3.% 2. 2.% 1. 1.%. Single Family Sales.% Mortgage Rate 3 Yr Fixed (%) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Total Single Family Sales Annual % Change Single Family Sales (, SA) Nonresidential Indicators 12 1 8 M O M Change in Nonresidential Employment 4% 3% Dow Jones REIT Index Y O Y % Change 6 2% 4 1% 2 % -1% -2-2% -4 April-216 May-216 June-216-3% April-216 May-216 June-216 Healthcare Office Retail Leisure Manufacturing Health REIT Office REIT Retail REIT Hotels REIT Industrial REIT Public Indicators Highway Trust Fund Monthly Balance (Millions $) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Highway Trust Fund Balance -1, Highway Trust Fund Balance Excess Highway Trust Fund Reserves 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Highway Trust Fund Reserves (Millions $) Airport Trust Fund Monthly Balance (Millions $) 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, Airport Trust Fund Balance -3, Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Airport Trust Fund Balance Excess Airport Trust Fund Reserves 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, Airport Trust Fund Reserves (Millions $) 7
Total Construction Spending 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 329 196 Real Total Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 211 375 37 235 229 239 Jun-14 Jan-14 Jun-15 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-16 Residential Buildings Nonresidential Buildings Public Construction 215 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Total Construction Spending -4% Total 12MMA Residential Spending 25 Real Residential Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 2 Residential Construction 2 198 199 2% 15 17 1 1 5 134 122 122 38 44 5 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Single Family Multifamily Improvements 1% % - Total 12MMA Nonresidential Spending 3 Real Nonresidential Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 2 Nonresidential Construction 25 2 15 196 235 239 2% 1 1 116 11 13 1% 5 1 1 9 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Nonresidential Buildings Public Utility & Other Farm Nonresidential % Nonresidential Buildings 12MMA Public Spending 25 Real Public Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 1 Public Construction Spending ( Y O Y % Change) 2 15 194 212 197 1% 1 % - 5 17 17 17 Jan-14 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-16 Real State and Local Construction Real Federal Construction -1% -1 Public Construction 12MMA 8