Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Providing Insights Into Current Lending Activities and Market Expectations Full Report published December 26, Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 1
Table of Contents Summary of Key Findings..... 4 Research Objectives 5 Respondent Sample and Groups..... 6 Key Findings Consumer Demand (Purchase and Refinance Mortgages)... 8 Credit Standards..... 11 Mortgage Execution Outlook... 13 Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution Outlook... 15 Profit Margin Outlook... 17 Appendix 20 Survey Methodology Details 21 Economic and Housing Sentiment... 29 Consumer Demand (Purchase Mortgages).. 33 Consumer Demand (Refinance Mortgages). 45 Credit Standards... 52 Mortgage Execution Outlook... 60 Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution... 68 Profit Margin Outlook 73 Survey Question Text... 78 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 2
Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 3
Key Findings : Profit margin outlook remained negative throughout the year, with competition continuously being cited as the key reason. Profit Margin Outlook Lenders net profit margin outlook has been negative for five consecutive quarters (since ). Competition from other lenders was again cited as the key reason for lenders decreased profit margin outlook, reaching a new survey high for the fourth consecutive quarter. Purchase Mortgage Demand The net share of lenders reporting demand growth over the prior three months has fallen for all loan types when compared with,, and, reaching the lowest reading for any fourth quarter over the past three years. Credit Standards The net share of lenders reporting easing of credit standards over the prior three months has continued its upward trend since across all loan types reaching or equaling survey highs for the second consecutive quarter. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 4
Research Objectives The Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, which debuted in March, is a quarterly online survey among senior executives in the mortgage industry. The survey is unique because it is used not only to track lenders current impressions of the mortgage industry, but also their insights into the future. Tracks insights and provides benchmarks into current and future mortgage lending activities and practices. Quarterly Regular Questions Consumer Mortgage Demand Credit Standards Mortgage Execution Outlook Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution Outlook Profit Margin Outlook Featured Specific Topic Analyses Lenders Customer Service Channel Strategies Lenders Experiences with APIs and Chatbots Next-Gen Technology Service Providers (TSPs) Mortgage Technology Innovation Lenders Experiences with TRID It is a quarterly 10-15 minute online survey of senior executives, such as CEOs and CFOs, of Fannie Mae s lending institution customers. The results are reported at the lending institution parent-company level. If more than one individual from the same institution completes the survey, their responses are averaged to represent their parent company. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 5
Respondent Sample and Groups For, a total of 224 senior executives completed the survey during November 1-14, representing 196 lending institutions.* HIGHER loan origination volume LOWER loan origination volume Loan Origination Volume Groups** Larger Institutions Top 15% Mid-sized Institutions Top 16% - 35% Smaller Institutions Bottom 65% 10 85% 65% Sample Total Lending Institutions The Total data throughout this report is an average of the means of the three loan origination volume groups listed below. Larger Institutions Fannie Mae s customers whose total industry loan origination volume was in the top 15% (above $1.01 billion) Loan Origination Volume Groups Institution Type*** Mid-sized Institutions Fannie Mae s customers whose total industry loan origination volume was in the next 2 (16%- 35%) (between $248.3 million to $1.01 billion) Smaller Institutions Fannie Mae s customers whose total industry loan origination volume was in the bottom 65% (less than $248.3 million) Sample Size 196 Mortgage Banks (non-depository) 74 Depository Institutions 77 Credit Unions 37 72 55 69 * The results of the Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey are reported at the lending institutional parent-company level. If more than one individual from the same institution completes the survey, their responses are averaged to represent their parent institution. ** The total loan volume per lender used here includes the best available annual origination information from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Marketrac. *** Lenders that are not classified into mortgage banks or depository institutions or credit unions are mostly housing finance agencies. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 6
Loan Type Definition Questions about consumer mortgage demand and credit standards are asked across three loan types: GSE Eligible, Non-GSE Eligible, and Government loans. Loan Type Definition Used in the Survey Loan Type Definition GSE Eligible Loans GSE Eligible Mortgages are defined as mortgages meeting the underwriting guidelines, including loan limit amounts, of the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Government loans are excluded from this category. Non-GSE Eligible Loans Non-GSE Eligible Mortgages are defined as mortgages that do not meet the GSE guidelines for purchase. These loans typically require larger down payments and typically carry higher interest rates than GSE loans. Government loans are excluded from this category. Government Loans Government Mortgages primarily include Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) insured loans but also includes other programs such as Rural Housing Guaranteed and Direct loans. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 7
Consumer Demand (Purchase and Refinance Mortgages) For purchase mortgages, the net share of lenders reporting demand growth over the prior three months has fallen for all loan types when compared with,, and, reaching the lowest reading for any fourth quarter over the past three years. However, the net share of lenders expecting increased demand over the next three months remains relatively stable for the fourth quarter over the past three years. For refinance mortgages, on net, more lenders reported declining demand over the prior three months, continuing the trend that started in Q1. For the next three months, the net share of lenders expecting demand growth dropped from last quarter (Q3 ) across all loan types, reaching the worst outlook in a year. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 8
Purchase Mortgage Demand The net share of lenders reporting demand growth over the prior three months has fallen for all loan types when compared with,, and, reaching the lowest reading for any fourth quarter over the past three years. However, the net share of lenders expecting increased demand over the next three months remains relatively stable for the fourth quarter over the past the past three years. Up Down Net Up + GSE Eligible Non-GSE Eligible Government Past 42% 22% 2 47% 56% 32% 45% 15% 11% 37%*^ 26%*^ 11%*^ 28% 15% 43% 49% 45% 38% 34% 36% 19%^ 15% 9% 19%^ 3 29% -1% 46% 44% 33% 35% 13% 9% 33% 29%*^ 4%*^ Next 22% 17% -5% 25% 25% 33% 3 25% 19%*^ -3% -6%* 3 24% 24% 2 3 26% 19%* 19%^ -4% 6% -4% * 27% 16% -11% 24% 23% -1% 36% 26% 25%* 18%* -1-7%* Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 9
Refinance Mortgage Demand On net, more lenders reported declining demand over the prior three months, continuing the trend that started in Q1. For the next three months, the net share of lenders expecting demand growth dropped from last quarter (Q3 ) across all loan types, reaching the worst outlook in a year. Up Down Net Up + GSE Eligible Non-GSE Eligible Government Past 39% 42% 31% 19% -8% -23% 55% 41% 14% 55%^ 11%^ -44%^ 31% 28% -3% 39% 18% -21% 42% 26% 16% 49%^ 6%*^ -43%^ 36% 39% 2 17% -16% -22% 39% 2 19% 58%^ 6%^ -52%^ 34% 62% 69% 52%*^ 33% 57% 68% 45%^ 38% 6 67% 55%* Next 7% -27% 6% 8% 5% -56% -61% -47%*^ 9% -24% 6% 3% 5% -51% -65% -4*^ 3% 5% 2% 4% -35% -55% -65% -51%*^ Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 10
Credit Standards The net share of lenders reporting easing of credit standards over the prior three months has continued its upward trend since across all loan types reaching new survey highs for the second consecutive quarter. Expectations of credit easing over the next three months declined on net for GSE Eligible loans. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 11
Credit Standards The net share of lenders reporting easing of credit standards over the prior three months has continued its upward trend since reaching new survey highs for the second consecutive quarter. Ease Tighten Net Ease + GSE Eligible Non-GSE Eligible Government Past 13% 12% -1% 17% 13% 4% 1 6% 4% 25%^ 25%^ ^ 18% 18% 9% 11% 9% 7% 1 6% 4% 21%^ 2^ 1%^ 16% 13% 3% 1 7% 8% 5% 2% 2% 18%^ 16%^ 2% Next 9% 6% 3% 16% 14% 2% 6% 8%* 7%* 5% 1% 1% 13% 13% 1 11% 9% 1 8% 8% 4% 3% 2% 3% 7% 6% -1% 12% 9% 3% 1 6% 9% 3% 3% 1% Net Ease + = % of lenders saying ease minus % of lenders saying tighten The % saying remain unchanged is not shown * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, how did your firm s credit standards for approving consumer applications for mortgage loans change (across both purchase mortgages and refinance mortgages)? Ease = Eased considerably + Eased somewhat, Tighten = Tightened somewhat + Tightened considerably Q: Over the next three months, how do you expect your firm s credit standards for approving applications from individuals for mortgage loans to change (across purchase mortgages and refinance mortgages)? Ease = Ease considerably + Ease somewhat, Tighten = Tighten somewhat + Tighten considerably Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 12
Mortgage Execution Outlook On net, lenders continue reporting expectations to grow GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and Ginnie Mae shares over the next 12 months and reduce portfolio retention and whole loan sales shares. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 13
Mortgage Execution Outlook Over Next 12 Months On net, lenders continue reporting expectations to grow GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and Ginnie Mae shares over the next 12 months and reduce portfolio retention and whole loan sales shares. Portfolio Retention GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) Ginnie Mae (FHA/VA) 16% 12% 1 11% -4% 19% -9% 16% -5% 26% 26% 25% 25% 1% 18% 23%* 8% 2% 16% 16% 15% 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% Private Label Securities / Non-Agency Securities Whole Loan Sales to Non-GSE (Correspondent) Increase Decrease Net Increase + 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 1% 8% 7% 1% 19% 17% 13% -6% -8% 13% 9% 9% -4% Net Increase + = % of lenders saying increase minus % of lenders saying decrease The % saying about the same is not shown Whether an institution reported increase/decrease/stay the same was based on the difference to their responses to the following 2 questions: Q: Approximately, what percent of your firm s total mortgage originations goes to each of the following categories? Q: Looking forward, what percent of your firm s total mortgage originations over the next year will go to each of the following categories? * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 14
Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution Outlook This quarter, slightly more lenders reported expectations to decrease rather than increase the share of MSR sold and the share of MSR retained and serviced in-house. The majority of lenders continued to report expectations to maintain their MSR execution strategy. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 15
Mortgage Servicing Rights Execution Outlook Next 12 Months This quarter, slightly more lenders reported expectations to decrease rather than increase the share of MSR sold and the share of MSR retained and serviced in-house. The majority of lenders continued to report expectations to maintain their MSR execution strategy. MSR Sold MSR Retained, serviced by a subservicer MSR Retained, serviced in-house 15% 11% 13% 13% 9% 9% -2% -2% -4% 13% 1 3% 8% 9% 4% 6% 4% 3% 7% 7% 8% 6% 5% 6% -1% -2% -2% Increase Decrease Net Increase + Whether an institution reported increase/decrease/stay the same was based on the difference to their responses to the following 2 questions: Q: Approximately, what percent of your mortgage servicing rights (MSR) goes to each of the following categories? Q: Looking forward, what percent of your firm s mortgage servicing rights (MSR) over the next year will go to each of the following categories? Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Net Increase + = % of lenders saying increase minus % of lenders saying decrease The % saying about the same is not shown * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 16
Profit Margin Outlook Lenders net profit margin outlook has been negative for five consecutive quarters (since ). Those expecting a lower profit outlook generally point to competition from other lenders as the primary reason. While institutions of all sizes and types generally reported an expected net decrease in profit margin, larger institutions were the most likely to do so. Competition from other lenders set a new survey high for the fourth consecutive quarter across all profit margin drivers, cited as the key reason for lenders lower profit margin outlook. The other top drivers for a decreased profit margin outlook include consumer demand, staffing, and market trend changes. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 17
Lenders Profit Margin Outlook Next Lenders net profit margin outlook has been negative for the past five consecutive quarters. Those expecting a lower profit outlook generally point to competition from other lenders as the primary reason. 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Profit Margin Outlook 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 n=182 n=180 n=222 n=200 n=186 n=194 n=164 n=190 n=134 n=166 n=176 n=174 n=190 Q3 16 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 '17 Key Reasons for Expected Increase Operational efficiency (i.e. technology) 62% GSE pricing and policies 36% Market trend changes (i.e. shift from refinance to purchase) 34% Consumer demand 22% Increase About the same Decrease 41% 13% 33% 3 28% 26% 13% 13% 55% 5 48% 49% 46% 49% 53% 55% 1 32% 25% 19% 18% 17% 38% 42% 15% 39% 46% 23% 17% 16% 46% 48% 54% 38% 29% 29% 16% 46% 38% Staffing (personnel costs) reduction 16% Showing data for selected answer choices only. n=29 Key Reasons for Expected Decrease Competition from other lenders 75% Consumer demand 3 Staffing (personnel costs) 29% Market trend changes (i.e. shift from refinance to purchase) 19% Net increase % (% of lenders saying increase minus % of lenders saying decrease) -19% 31% 1% -25% -29% 14% 12% 11% -31% -22% -6% -12% -22% Q: Over the next three months, how much do you expect your firm's profit margin to change for its single-family mortgage production? [Showing: (Substantially Increase (25+ basis points) + Moderately Increase (5-25 basis points)), About the same (0-5 basis points), (Moderately Decrease (5-25 basis points) + Substantially Decrease (25+ basis points)] Q: What do you think will drive the increase (decrease) in your firm s profit margin over the next three months? Please select up to two of the most important reasons. Government regulatory compliance 13% Showing data for selected answer choices only. n=75 * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 18
Decreased Profit Margin Outlook Top Drivers Competition from other lenders set a new survey high for the fourth consecutive quarter across all profit margin drivers, cited as the key reason for lenders lower profit margin outlook. The other top drivers for a decreased profit margin outlook include consumer demand, staffing, and market trend changes. Competition from Other Lenders Consumer Demand Staffing Market Trend Changes 75%^ c 66% 71% 74% 3 c 29% 44% 46% 34% 39% 33% 27% 25% 6% 21% 26% 1 18% 35% 27% 26% 31% 19% 12% 7% 21% 17% 43% 51% 2 23% 26% 11% 15% 8% 19%^ Q: What do you think will drive the decrease in your firm s profit margin over the next three months? Please select the two most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1 + 2) Total: : N=76; Q1 : N=35; Q2 : N=29; Q3 : N=33; : N=64; Q1 : N=63 ; Q2 : N=49 ; Q3 : N=49 ; : N=75 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 19
Appendix Survey Methodology Details 21 Economic and Housing Sentiment. 29 Consumer Demand (Purchase Mortgages).. 33 Consumer Demand (Refinance Mortgages). 45 Credit Standards. 52 Mortgage Execution Outlook... 60 Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution Outlook.... 68 Profit Margin Outlook. 73 Survey Question Text. 78 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 20
Appendix Survey Methodology Details Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 21
Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Background The Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey is a quarterly online survey of senior executives of Fannie Mae s lending institution partners to provide insights and benchmarks that help mortgage industry professionals understand industry and market trends and assess their own business practices. Survey Methodology A quarterly, 10-15 minute online survey among senior executives, such as CEOs and CFOs, of Fannie Mae s lending institution partners. To ensure that the survey results represent the behavior and output of organizations rather than individuals, the Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey is structured and conducted as an establishment survey. Each respondent is asked 40-75 questions. Sample Design Each quarter, a random selection of approximately 3,000 senior executives among Fannie Mae s approved lenders are invited to participate in the study. Data Weighting The results of the Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey are reported at the institutional parent-company level. If more than one individual from the same parent institution completes the survey, their responses are averaged to represent their parent institution. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 22
Lending Institution Characteristics Fannie Mae s customers invited to participate in the Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey represent a broad base of different lending institutions that conducted business with Fannie Mae in. Institutions were divided into three groups based on their total industry loan volume Larger (top 15%), Mid-sized (top 16%-35%), and Smaller (bottom 65%). The data below further describe the compositions and loan characteristics of the three groups of institutions. Institution Type 6% 1% 2% 7% 54% 6% 38% 19% 35% 41% 36% 55% Other Mortgage Banks Credit Union Depository Institution Larger Mid-sized Smaller Loan Types Loan Purposes 27% 21% 13% 11% 59% 67% 7% 11% 81% Government Jumbo Conforming 45% 54% 53% 46% 45% 55% Purchase REFI Larger Mid-sized Smaller Larger Mid-sized Smaller Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 23
Sample Sizes Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error Total Lending Institutions 194 ±6.58% 205 ±6.72% 169 ± 7.12% 200 ± 6.47% 139 ±7.93% 177 ±7.18% 184 ±7.22% 190 ±6.64% 196 ±6.42% Loan Origination Volume Groups Institution Type Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Mortgage Banks Depository Institutions Credit Unions 59 ±11.03% 57 ±12.64% 57 ±11.28% 70 ±9.82% 50 ±12.3 58 ±12.76% 54 ±13.34% 58 ±11.16% 72 ±9.47% 59 ±11.48% 68 ±11.53% 54 ±12.13% 59 ±11.5 45 ±13.53% 47 ±14.2 58 ±12.87% 66 ±10.69% 55 ±11.78% 76 ±10.81% 80 ±10.82% 58 ±12.5 71 ±11.22% 44 ±14.46% 72 ±11.43% 72 ±11.55% 66 ±11.65% 69 ±11.25% 71 ±10.15% 63 ±11.96% 65 ±10.78% 65 ±10.79% 52 ±12.4 53 ±13.36% 58 ±12.87% 73 ±10.12% 74 ±9.88% 75 ±10.76% 88 ±10.29% 63 ±11.84% 79 ±10.46% 54 ±12.87% 72 ±11.43% 82 ±10.82% 75 ±10.71% 77 ±10.37% 39 ±14.98% 47 ±14.07% 34 ±16.16% 49 ±13.21% 29 ±17.6 44 ±14.68% 36 ±16.33% 38 ±15.18% 37 ±15.27% Q1 was fielded between February 4, and February 16, Q2 was fielded between May 6, and May 17, Q3 was fielded between August 5, and August 17, was fielded between November 4, and November 16, Q1 was fielded between February 3, and February 16, Q2 was fielded between May 4, and May 16, Q3 was fielded between August 3, and August 15, was fielded between November 10, and November 20, Q1 was fielded between February 1, and February 13, Q2 was fielded between May 3, and May 14, Q3 was fielded between August 2, and August 13, was fielded between November 1, and November 14, Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 24
Cross-Subgroup Sample Sizes Total Larger Lenders Mid-Sized Lenders Smaller Lenders Total 196 72 55 69 Mortgage Banks (non-depository) Depository Institutions 74 44 25 5 77 20 20 37 Credit Unions 37 3 9 25 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 25
Sample Sizes: Consumer Demand Purchase Mortgages: GSE Eligible Past Non-GSE Eligible Government GSE Eligible Next Non-GSE Eligible Government Total Lending Institutions 196 174 157 195 174 157 Larger Institutions 72 64 69 71 64 68 Mid-sized Institutions 55 48 49 55 49 49 Smaller Institutions 69 61 39 69 61 40 Refinance Mortgages: GSE Eligible Past Non-GSE Eligible Government GSE Eligible Next Non-GSE Eligible Government Total Lending Institutions 188 162 142 188 165 142 Larger Institutions 70 59 66 70 62 66 Mid-sized Institutions 53 44 46 53 44 46 Smaller Institutions 66 58 30 66 59 30 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 26
Sample Sizes: Credit Standards GSE Eligible Past Non-GSE Eligible Government GSE Eligible Next Non-GSE Eligible Government Total Lending Institutions 196 173 156 196 175 156 Larger Institutions 72 64 70 72 65 70 Mid-sized Institutions 55 48 49 55 49 49 Smaller Institutions 69 61 38 69 61 38 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 27
Calculation of the Total The Total data presented in this report is an average of the means of the three loan origination volume groups (see an illustrated example below). Please note that percentages are based on the number of financial institutions that gave responses other than Not Applicable. Percentages may add to under or over 10 due to rounding. Example: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for singlefamily purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? GSE Eligible ( ) Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Total Go up 46% 32% 34% 37% [(46% + 32% + 34%)/3] Stayed the same 34% 49% 29% 37% 47% 38% 15% Q1 Q2 GSE Eligible Q3 56% 5 37%*^ 33% 34% 37% 11% Q1 Q2 16% 26%*^ Q3 Go down 2 18% 37% 25% Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 28
Appendix Economic and Housing Sentiment Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 29
U.S. Economy Overall In general, do you, as a senior mortgage executive, think the U.S. economy overall is on the right track or the wrong track? Right Track Don t know Wrong Track 57% 12% Total 63% 62% 31% 29% 25% 8% 13% 89%*^ 6%^ 5%^ 52% National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers) 56% 57% 36% 37% 34% 11% 7% 9% Nov... Nov... Nov 5^ 38%^ 12%^... Nov Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions 65% 68% 62% 22% 12% 26% 29% 6% 9% 91%^ 5%^... 3% 46% 42% 12% 71% 25% 21% 4% 12% 67% 9^ 6% 4% 59% 3 52% 35% 11% 13% 57% 27% 16% 87%^ 9% 4%^ * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey National Housing Survey: http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/housing-survey.html Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 30
Home Prices Next 12 Months Nationally, during the next 12 months, do you, as a senior mortgage executive, think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now? Go Up Stay the Same Go Down Total 69%^ 5 58% 52% 47% 39% 41% 25%^ 2% 3% 6% 6% National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers) 44% 44% 43% 44% 44% 4 53%^ 35%^ 6% 6% 8% 7% By about what percent do you, as a senior mortgage executive, think home prices nationally will go up/down on average over the next 12 months? Nov... Nov... Nov... Nov 1.7% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.7% Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions 71% 73%^ 58% 49% 29% 39% 38% 21%^ 4% 8% 4% 5 61% 65% 57% 48% 4 36% 29% 3% 3% 6% 7^ 55% 47% 45% 46% 45% 43% 24%^ 2% 5% 7% 7% 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 2.3% 1.3% 2.5% * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey National Housing Survey: http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/housing-survey.html Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 31
Difficulty of Getting a Mortgage Do you think it is very difficult, somewhat difficult, somewhat easy, or very easy for consumers to get a home mortgage today? Easy (Very easy + Somewhat easy) 86% 13% 7 29% Total 65% 54%^ 34% 46%^ National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers) 48% 52% 54% 59%^ 47% 45% 44% 38%^ Difficult (Very difficult + Somewhat difficult) Nov... Nov... Nov... Nov Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions 93% 67% 7 7% 33% 3 57% 42% 83% 17% 73% 27% c 67% 56% 33% 44% 82% 16% 72% 28% 61% 39% 5 5 * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey National Housing Survey: http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/housing-survey.html Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 32
Appendix Consumer Demand (Purchase Mortgages) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 33
Purchase Mortgage Demand: GSE Eligible (by institution size) Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Past 37% 21% 16% 49% 59% 36% 46% 13% 13% 46% 26%S 2 52% 46% 41% 27% 25% 39% 19% 16% 13% 32%*^ 18% 14%^ 42% 21% 21% 6 51% 53% 34% 17% 7% 37%*^L/M 34%^ -3%^ Next 22% 13% -9% 3 19% 41% 11% 26% 26% 18%* -15% -8% 25% 17% -8% 29% 17% -12% 37% 31% 27% 2-6% -7%* 2 3 32% 28% 18% 23% 22% 19% 2% 2% 9% -3% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat L/M/S - Denote a % is significantly higher than the annual loan origination volume group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 34
Purchase Mortgage Demand: GSE Eligible (by institution type) Mortgage Banks Depository Institutions Credit Unions Past 49% 35% 14% 45% 59% 28% 49% 17% 1 39%^ 21% 18%^D 31% 23% 8% 5 64% 35% 56% 15% 8% 35%*^C 27%^ -8%*^ 49% 4 44% 54%D 27% 25% 28% 38%D 22% 15% 16% 16% Next 19% 17% 28% 26% -2% -2% 35% 35% 34%*C 18%*^ -16%* 26% 2 21% 4 16% -4% 5% 19% -21% 23%^ 18% -5% 24% 15% -9% -9% 42% 3 28% 21% 14% 24% 12%M 12% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat M/D/C - Denote a % is significantly higher than the institution type group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 35
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Non-GSE Eligible (by institution size) Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Past 46% 35% 11% 51% 5 34% 43% 17% 7% 4 24% 16% 45% 41% 44% 29%* 3 28% 34% 15% 15%* 13% 1 14% 39% 55% 44% 45% 21% 38% 34% 27%^ 18% 18% 17% 1 Next 3 25% 18% 19% -6% 12% 3 23% -7% 2 17% -3% 26% 26% 18% 23% -8% -3% 41% 27% 2^ 15%* -14% -5%* 23% 2 37% 29% 29% 21% 24% 15% 3% 8% 8% 9% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat L/M/S - Denote a % is significantly higher than the annual loan origination volume group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 36
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Non-GSE Eligible (by institution type) Mortgage Banks Depository Institutions Credit Unions Past 41% 45% 34% 27% 28% 3 13% 15% 7% 32% 18% 14% 5 55% 38% 2 34% 47% 18% 16% 8% 39% 25%^ 14%^ 48% 37% 11% 5 45% 46% 34% 3 33% 16% 15% 13% Next 26% 2 6% 34% 29% 28% 23% -1% 23% 13%* -11% -1 32% 22% 19% 19% -3% 13% 35% 16% -19% 18%^ 17% -1% 26% 21% 31% 27% 45% 24% -5% -4% 21% 29% 19% 1 Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat M/D/C - Denote a % is significantly higher than the institution type group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 37
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Government (by institution size) Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Past 35% 27% -8% 51% 51% 32% 4 11% 19% 39% 3 9%*^ 32% 27% 5% 43% 29% 36% 28% 24%^ 28% 14% 8% 4% 28% 28% 43% 48% 29% 38% 14% 1 32% 32%^ Next 29% 28% 2 41% 26% 15% 2 24% -13% 9% -17% -6% 31% 14% 25% 38% 16% 28% -17% -9% -1 26% 22% -4% 21% 19% 28% 29% 24% 25% -2% -4% -4% 22% 6%^ -16%* Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat L/M/S - Denote a % is significantly higher than the annual loan origination volume group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 38
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Government (by institution type) Mortgage Banks Depository Institutions Credit Unions Past 38% 27% 11% 49% 53% 35%^ 29%^ 36% 43% 13% 1 6%*^ 16% 33% -17% 44% 3 31% 42% 14% 11% 37%*^C 31% -6%^ 4 2 33% 25% 24% 17% 34% 21% 2 8% 7% 13% Next 25% 14% -11% 29% 27% 41% 35% -2% 6% 31%* 21%^ -1 24% 18% -6% 3% 43% 22% 1 19% -33% 23%^ 14% -9%^ 34% 12% 29% 8% -22% -21% 38% 28% -1 16% 11% 5% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat M/D/C - Denote a % is significantly higher than the institution type group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 39
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Drivers of Change (selected verbatim) Anticipation of rising interest rates Lack of Inventory Uncertainty of Economic Conditions High home prices Past N=128 Drivers of Demand Up Drivers of Demand Down Q: What do you think drove the change in your firm s consumer demand for single-family purchase mortgages over the past three months? Please be as specific as possible. (Optional) Lack of supply; not enough houses on the market to buy. Larger Institution Higher interest rate and reduction in home inventory in certain markets. Average prices of homes very high. Mid-sized Institutions Higher rates put a slow down on Refinances; there is a significant lack of inventory for purchase transactions..add to this, compliance requirements. Smaller Institution More aggressive pricing strategies. Improved pricing position as a result of agency changes. Better loan officer coverage. High rents. Larger Institution Market demand for housing and availability of affordable housing programs. Fear of increasing housing prices. Mid-sized Institution Borrower pent up demand and fear of rising interest rates. Price and rate remained good overall Smaller Institutions Q3 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 40
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Drivers of Change (GSE Eligible) You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for GSE eligible loans will go up over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand to go up? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 37 13 11 13 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)* Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are favorable 62% 61% 77% 46% 17% Mortgage rates are favorable 25% 24% 14% 39% 31% There are many homes available on the market 3% 8% 22% Home prices are low 14% It is easy to qualify for a mortgage 4% You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for GSE eligible loans will go down over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand down? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 48 18 15 15 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)** There are not many homes available on the market 48% 38% 47% 63% 5% Home prices are high 16% 11% 2 17% 45% Mortgage rates are not favorable 11% 22% 1 5% Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 3% 8% 21% It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 2% 7% 16% *Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a good time to buy a house. **Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a bad time to buy a house. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 41
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Drivers of Change (Non-GSE Eligible) You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for Non-GSE eligible loans will go up over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand to go up? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 33 11 8 14 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)* Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are favorable 47% 65% 4 38% 17% Mortgage rates are favorable 16% 9% 7% 28% 31% It is easy to qualify for a mortgage 14% 4 7% 4% There are many homes available on the market 4% 5% 7% 22% Home prices are low 14% You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for Non-GSE eligible loans will go down over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand down? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 32 13 10 9 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)** There are not many homes available on the market 43% 23% 45% 67% 5% Home prices are high 13% 4% 2 17% 45% Mortgage rates are not favorable 9% 26% 5% It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 7% 8% 1 16% Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 4% 8% 6% 21% *Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a good time to buy a house. **Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a bad time to buy a house. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 42
Purchase Mortgage Demand: Drivers of Change (Government) You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for government loans will go up over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand to go up? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 27 13 11 2 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)* Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are favorable 39% 5 18% 10 17% Mortgage rates are favorable 26% 15% 41% 31% It is easy to qualify for a mortgage 15% 15% 18% 4% There are many homes available on the market 4% 9% 22% Home prices are low 2% 4% 14% You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for government loans will go down over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand down? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing % rank 1) Total Larger Institutions (L) Mid-sized Institutions (M) Smaller Institutions (S) N= 38 18 12 8 National Housing Survey Among the General Population (consumers)** There are not many homes available on the market 41% 37% 48% 35% 5% Home prices are high 18% 14% 16% 29% 45% Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 7% 9% 8% 21% Mortgage rates are not favorable 5% 11% 5% It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 2% 12% 16% *Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a good time to buy a house. **Q: Please tell me the primary reason why you think this is a bad time to buy a house. Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 43
Downward Purchase Demand Outlook Drivers The share of lenders citing there are not many homes available on the market as one of the two most important reasons in driving next-three-months purchase demand down has fallen from the survey highs last quarter, but is still most important. GSE Eligible Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 N= 49 11 1 26 48 19 12 31 48 There are not many homes available on the market 44% 53% 55% 37% 34% 73% 82% 74%^ Home prices are high 22% 4 33% 33% 39% 48% 47% 41% Mortgage rates are not favorable 31% 19% 67% 74% 25% 2 23%^ Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 42% 57% 10 41% 26% 12% 7% 12% 15% It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 27% 38% 10 28% 19% 24% 3 16% 12% Non-GSE Eligible Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 N= 42 11 6 24 38 13 11 25 32 There are not many homes available on the market 41% 47% 37% 3 18% 41% 84% 65%^ Home prices are high 22% 41% 19% 35% 38% 44% 53% 37% It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 35% 38% 10 39% 17% 52% 28% 12% 23% Mortgage rates are not favorable 32% 16% 32% 21% 66% 77% 43% 19% 21%^ Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 38% 47% 49% 59% 3 1 26% 15% 11% Government Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 N= 40 13 4 23 42 12 8 25 38 There are not many homes available on the market 35% 44% 37% 35% 37% 65% 81% 72%^ Home prices are high 27% 46% 33% 29% 24% 53% 47% 4 Mortgage rates are not favorable 35% 22% 16% 56% 75% 22% 18% 22%^ Economic conditions (e.g., employment) overall are not favorable 47% 4 54% 4 22% 12% 27% 15%^ It is difficult to qualify for a mortgage 27% 55% 67% 25% 2 33% 37% 13% 8% *Q: You mentioned that you expect your firm s consumer demand for GSE Eligible/Non-GSE Eligible/government loans will go down over the next three months. Which of the following housing marketplace factors do you think will drive the demand down? Please select up to two of the most important reasons and rank them in order of importance. (Showing Total, % rank 1+2) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 44
Appendix Consumer Demand (Refinance Mortgages) Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 45
Refinance Mortgage Demand: GSE Eligible (by institution size) Larger Institutions Mid-sized Institutions Smaller Institutions Past 42% 31% 11% 4 24% -16% 73% 6 13% 65%^ 13%^ -52%^ 36% 33% -3% 43% 16% -27% 57% 42% 15% 5^ 15%^ -35%^ 49% 18% 2-31% 42% -22% 41% 27% 14% 5^ 5%^ -45%^ 39% 74% 82% 63%*^M 28% 65% 82% 45%^ 36% 45% 52% 5 Next 6% 2% 7% 3% -33% -72%... -75% -6* 8% -2 7% 7% 5% -58% -75% -4^ 7% 9% 9% -29% -36% 6% -43% -44% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat L/M/S - Denote a % is significantly higher than the annual loan origination volume group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 46
Refinance Mortgage Demand: GSE Eligible (by institution type) Mortgage Banks Depository Institutions Credit Unions Past 5 43% 3 2 2-23% 67% 5 17% 6^ 14%^ -46%^ 44% 43% 21% 19% -23% -24% 53% 41% 12% 58%^ 7%^ -51%^ 47% 37% 22% 19% -25% -18% 55% 44% 11% 43%*^ 14%^ -29%*^ Next 27% 1-17% 65% 4% 9% -61% 81% -72% 6*^ 2%* -58%* 67% 58% 52% 37% 8% 7% 8% 5% -29% -51% -59% -47% 39% 4% 8% 7% 8% -35% 54% -46% 68% -61% 45% -37% Up Down Net Up + Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Q: Over the past three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, did your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Went up significantly + Went up somewhat, Down = Went down significantly + Went down somewhat Q: Over the next three months, apart from normal seasonal variation, do you expect your firm s consumer demand for single-family refinance mortgages to go up, go down, or stay the same? Up = Go up significantly + Go up somewhat, Down = Go down significantly + Go down somewhat M/D/C - Denote a % is significantly higher than the institution type group that the letter represents at the 95% confidence level * Denotes a statistically significant change compared with Q3 (previous quarter) ^ Denotes a statistically significant change compared with (same quarter of last year) Net Up + = % of lenders saying up minus % of lenders saying down The % saying stay the same is not shown Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 47