Special Eurobarometer 299 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT European Commission The 2009 European elections Fieldwork: March May 2008 Publication: September 2008 Report Special Eurobarometer 299/ Wave 69.2 TNS opinion & social This survey was requested by the European Parliament. This document does not represent the European Parliament s point of view. The interpretations and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors.
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 2 1. AWARENESS OF THE DATE AND INTEREST IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS... 6 1.1 THE DATE OF THE NEXT EUROPEAN ELECTIONS...6 1.2 INTEREST IN THE 2009 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS...9 2. THE LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING... 13 2.1 THE LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING...13 2.2 REASONS FOR NOT VOTING...17 3. VOTING CRITERIA... 20 3.1 EUROPEAN ISSUES AND NATIONAL ISSUES...21 3.2 CANDIDATES...25 4. THE CAMPAIGN THEMES... 30 4.1 ECONOMIC THEMES...30 4.2 GLOBAL AND SECURITY-RELATED THEMES...35 4.3 THEMES DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE EUROPEAN UNION...39 CONCLUSION... 42-1 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections INTRODUCTION Between 4 and 7 June 2009, European Union citizens will elect, for the seventh time, their representatives to the European Parliament, which will then be celebrating thirty years of election by direct universal suffrage. At the current time it is impossible to know exactly how many MEPs the 492 million Europeans will have to elect since, following the no vote by the Irish on the Treaty of Lisbon, the institutional reforms, including the reform regarding the election of 751 MEPs, have been suspended. If the situation does not change, the elections will be organised in accordance with the Treaty of Nice, in which case the European Parliament will have 736 members. With 9 Member States in 1979 and 27 today, 1 the European Parliament has grown in line with the various enlargements. It remains the only directly elected European institution. Its powers have also changed over the years with the adoption of the various European treaties. In March 1958, when the European institutions were put in place, it inherited the powers of the Common Assembly of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). Although its powers were essentially consultative the European Assembly nevertheless had an important political power, that of adopting a motion of censure against the European executive power. At that time its members were appointed by the national parliaments. They immediately recommended the principle of election by direct universal suffrage. At the Paris conference of 9-10 December 1974, the Heads of States and Governments subscribed to this key principle as a step towards European democracy. The Act introducing the election of representatives to the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage was signed on 20 December 1976 in Brussels. After ratification by all the Member States it entered into force on 1 January 1978. The first European elections were held on 7 and 10 June 1979 in the nine Member States which at that time made up the European Economic Community (EEC). With its enhanced legitimacy, the European Parliament has fought and won its budgetary, legislative and political combats. It is today the budgetary co-authority with the Council of Ministers. It is the President of the European Parliament who adopts the European Union s budget. In the vast majority of cases, it shares legislative powers with the Council. The Presidents of the two institutions jointly sign legislative acts. Finally, at the political level, it 1 Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom. - 2 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections decides whether or not to deliver a vote of confidence in the European Commission at the time of the latter s renewal every 5 years. The last European elections were held in June 2004: 350 million voters in twenty-five Member States were asked to elect 732 MEPs. One month earlier the European Union had been enlarged with the accession of ten new Member States. Voter turnout in the 2004 elections was 47.63% compared with 49.51% in 1999 and 62% in 1979. In January 2007 Bulgaria and Romania in turn joined the EU. Just after their accession they organised direct elections with a turnout of around 30%. More than a year ahead of the June 2009 European elections, this second survey examines the expectations of Europeans in this regard. It attempts to ascertain the main issues and the themes which are likely to play a key role in the electoral campaign. The fieldwork for this Special Eurobarometer on the 2009 European elections was carried out between 25 March and 4 May 2008 via face-to-face interviews (the questionnaire was read to respondents in their homes by an interviewer). This survey covers the 27 European Union Member States. It is part of the EB69.2 wave which includes the Standard Eurobarometer; the Standard Eurobarometer questions regarding trust in European and national institutions are included in the report. This Eurobarometer wave has revealed certain significant changes in European public opinion. These changes can be attributed to the gloomy climate resulting from the unfavourable economic outlook. The very worrying economic situation has had a significant impact on most of the Eurobarometer indicators. The European Parliament has been slightly affected by this general gloom but nevertheless remains the institution in which Europeans have the most trust, with a score of 52% 2. Against this difficult background, the European elections seem, as yet, to be far from the forefront of the thoughts of European citizens, who are preoccupied by immediate economic problems. Accordingly, their voting criteria combine European and national issues, without any real distinction. Europeans are inclined to put their economic concerns at the centre of the electoral campaign. The key question of this survey is therefore to determine whether these elections will be truly European or whether they will simply represent the accumulation of twenty-seven different national elections. 2 See the first results of Standard Eurobarometer 69 http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb69/eb_69_first_en.pdf - 3 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections This Eurobarometer was commissioned by the Directorate-General Communication of the European Commission on behalf of the European Parliament. It was conducted by TNS Opinion & Social. The methodology used is the same as that used in the Standard Eurobarometer surveys carried out for the Directorate-General Communication ( Research and Political Analysis Unit). A technical note concerning the interviews conducted by the TNS Opinion & Social network institutes is attached to this report. It specifies the interview methods and the intervals of confidence. We shall analyse the results of this survey by examining four main aspects: 1. First of all, we shall assess the interest of European citizens in the European elections. 2. Then, the likelihood of voting in these elections. 3. Then, the voting criteria of Europeans for the 2009 elections. 4. Finally, the themes that Europeans want to see at the centre of the election campaign. At the end of the report, a summary attempts to put the main findings of the research into perspective. In this report, we shall analyse the results and changes at two levels: first, the average over the twenty-seven Member States (EU27); secondly, the averages at national level. We shall also add brief comments on the way in which answers vary according to certain sociodemographic characteristics (gender, age, etc.), as well as certain other indicators, such as attitude towards the European Union and political leanings. - 4 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Note This Special Eurobarometer was conducted between 25 March and 4 May 2008 and is part of the Eurobarometer 69.2 wave. In this report, countries are mentioned by their official abbreviation. ABREVIATIONS EU27 DK BE CZ BG DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LT LV LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK European Union - 27 Member States Don t Know Belgium Czech Republic Bulgaria Denmark Germany Estonia Greece Spain France Ireland Italy Republic of Cyprus Lithuania Latvia Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom - 5 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 1. AWARENESS OF THE DATE AND INTEREST IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS These two elements are two indispensables parameters for measuring the extent of public awareness of the elections. 1.1 The date of the next European elections As was the case six months ago, at the time of the Eurobarometer 68 wave, respondents were asked when the next European elections were due to be held 3 : 16% gave the exact year, 9% gave another year and, finally, 75% said that they did not know. Compared with the previous wave, awareness of the date of the European elections has improved since 16% of Europeans now know the year in which the next European elections will be held, compared with 10% six months ago. It is to be noted that 4% of Europeans are capable of giving the exact month and year June 2009 compared with only 2% in the previous wave. On the other hand, only 9% mentioned another year compared with 15% previously. This overall improvement in awareness of the election date is fairly logical and it will continue to improve as the date grows closer. The level of DK replies, however, remains stable at 75%, which demonstrates that overall European citizens are not particularly aware of this event. 3 QC1.1 In your opinion, when will the next European elections be held, here in (OUR COUNTRY)? - 6 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections There are however fairly significant differences from one Member State to another as regards awareness of the year of the next European elections. More than four out of ten respondents in Luxembourg (43%), more than a third in Greece (36%) and more than quarter of those polled in Slovakia (32%), Belgium (30%), Hungary (28%) and Austria (27%) gave the right answer: 2009. On the other hand, only 3% of Finnish and British respondents gave the exact year. The ranking of respondents who gave the right answer, i.e. June 2009, is slightly different: 27% of citizens in Luxembourg, 14% in Belgium, 10% in Ireland and Austria, and 9% in Romania and Slovakia gave the precise date. However, these marked differences between Member States cannot mask the fact that the overall result remains negative: in all the countries polled, the majority of respondents replied that they did not know. - 7 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections QC1 In your opinion, when will the next European elections be held, here in (OUR COUNTRY)? 2009 Others DK EU27 16% 9% 75% Sex Male 19% 10% 71% Female 13% 8% 79% Age 15-24 13% 10% 77% 25-39 18% 10% 73% 40-54 17% 9% 74% 55 + 15% 8% 77% Education (End of) 15-10% 7% 84% 16-19 16% 8% 76% 20+ 22% 12% 66% Still Studying 16% 12% 72% Respondent occupation scale Self-employed 24% 9% 67% Managers 22% 12% 66% Other white collars 19% 10% 71% Manual workers 15% 9% 76% House persons 10% 7% 84% Unemployed 9% 6% 85% Retired 14% 7% 79% Students 16% 12% 72% Men are more likely than women to give the exact year (2009) of the next European elections: 19% of men versus 13% of women. The youngest respondents (15-24) are the least likely to know the year of the European elections: only 13% of them gave the exact year compared with 18% of those aged 25-39. For this question, the level of education and the occupational scale are discriminating variables. The longer the respondents studied the more likely they are to know the date of the next European elections: 22% of respondents who studied up to the age of 20 or over know the year of the European elections compared with only 10% of those who left school before the age of 16. - 8 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Self-employed people are the best informed professional category as regards the date of the elections: 24% mentioned 2009. The next highest scores were obtained by those in general management positions (22%) and employees (19%). On the other hand, only 10% of home makers and 9% of the unemployed gave the exact year. In general, therefore, the level of awareness of the date of the next European elections has improved since autumn 2007, though there are substantial differences between Member States and socio-professional categories. The DK level of 75% can be explained by the fact that the elections are still some way off and they have not been given significant media coverage. 1.2 Interest in the 2009 European elections The exact date of the European elections was then given to respondents who were asked whether they were interested in this political event 4. In reply, 46% (38%+8%) of Europeans declared that they were interested in the elections versus 51% (29%+22%) who declared that they were not interested and 3% who felt unable to express an opinion. The results regarding the interest of respondents in the European elections vary considerably from one Member State to another: in 11 European Union Member States, an absolute majority of respondents are interested in them. This proportion exceeds six out of ten respondents in Romania (65%), Malta (63%), Ireland (62%) and Cyprus (61%). 4 QC2 The next European elections will be held in June 2009. How interested or disinterested would you say you are in these elections? - 9 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections On the other hand, more than seven out of ten respondents in Latvia (79%) and the Czech Republic (71%) declared that they are not interested in them. It is interesting to note that in numerous new Member States, an absolute majority of respondents are not interested in the European elections: in Latvia (79%), the Czech Republic (71%), Slovakia (68%), Lithuania (56%), Estonia (55%) and Poland (53%). 62% of citizens in the United Kingdom, often little interested in European matters in the various surveys, declared that they are somewhat or even very uninterested in the upcoming European parliamentary elections. Although, for the time being, only a minority of citizens are interested in the European elections, it is important to bear in mind that the study was carried out more than a year ahead of the elections. The electoral campaign has not yet started and the event has received little or no media coverage: for the time being it is far from being at the forefront of public attention. - 10 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections QC2 The next European elections will be held in June 2009. How interested or disinterested would you say you are in these elections? Interested Disinterested DK EU27 46% 51% 3% Sex Male 51% 47% 2% Female 44% 53% 3% Age 15-24 42% 54% 4% 25-39 49% 49% 2% 40-54 50% 48% 2% 55 + 45% 52% 3% Education (End of) 15-36% 61% 3% 16-19 46% 52% 2% 20+ 60% 38% 2% Still Studying 47% 49% 4% Trust in EU Tend to trust 62% 36% 2% Tend not to trust 31% 67% 2% An examination of the results of the various socio-demographic variables in relation to certain key indicators reveals several distinctions: Men are more likely than women to be interested in the 2009 elections: an absolute majority of men (51%) compared with only 44% of women. Half of the respondents aged between 40 and 54 declared that they are interested in the elections compared with 45% of those aged 55 or over and 42% of those aged under 25. This follows the pattern noted for the question on the date of the elections: the intermediate age groups are the best informed about the event and are those who are the most interested in it. The proportion of respondents interested in the next European elections increases with the level of education. Some 60% of respondents who studied up to the age of 20 or longer declared that they are interested in the elections compared with only 36% of those who left school before the age of 16. Respondents who trust the European Union are the most interested in the 2009 elections: 62% of respondents who tend to trust the European Union are - 11 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections interested in the European elections compared with only 31% of respondents who tend not to trust the European Union. On the other hand, a majority of those who do not trust the European Union are not interested in the elections: 67% of them declared that they are not interested in the June 2009 elections. - 12 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 2. THE LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING 2.1 The likelihood of voting Europeans were then asked how likely they were to vote in the June 2009 elections, by positioning themselves on a scale of 1 to 10 5. Almost one in three Europeans (30%) answered 10, that is to say they would definitely vote and 14% answered 1, that is to say that they would definitely not vote. QC3 Can you tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how likely it is that you would vote in the next Europeans elections in June 2009? 1. Definitely would not vote 14% 2. 3. 4. 3% 3% 4% 5. 10% 6. 6% 7. 8% 8. 10% 9. 7% 10. Would definitely vote 30% DK 5% These two groups provide something of an initial indication of the proportion of Europeans who are likely to vote or not vote, as applicable, in the next European elections. However, these data provide no basis for deducing the probable turnout: with more than a year to go before voting, these results simply indicate an initial trend. The results reflect opinions outside an electoral context. 5 QC3 Can you tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how likely it is that you would vote in the next European elections in June 2009? Please place yourself at a point on this scale where "1" indicates that you would definitely not vote, "10" indicates that you would definitely vote and the remaining numbers indicate something in between these two positions. - 13 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections This question merely reinforces the observation that at the current time the 2009 European elections are not a central issue and that they are not, or in any event not yet, among the principal public concerns. The likelihood of voting varies considerably from one country to another. An absolute majority of respondents would definitely vote in Luxembourg (68%), Denmark (59%), Belgium (58%) and Cyprus (51%). It must however be borne in mind that voting is compulsory in Luxembourg and Belgium. That is also the case in Greece where only 36% of interviewees declared that they would definitely vote. On the other - 14 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections hand, less than one in five respondents declared that they would definitely vote in Romania (19%), Austria (17%), Slovakia (15%) and Portugal (14%). QC3 Can you tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how likely it is that you would vote in the next Europeans elections in June 2009? 1. Definitely would not vote 10. Would definitely vote EU27 14% 30% Age 15-24 20% 22% 25-39 11% 26% 40-54 11% 32% 55 + 16% 35% Education (End of) 15-20% 25% 16-19 12% 29% 20+ 7% 41% Still Studying 21% 22% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 10% 36% (5-6) Center 13% 30% (7-10) Right 9% 35% Respondent occupation scale Self- employed 8% 36% Managers 8% 39% Other white collars 8% 32% Manual workers 13% 26% House persons 16% 23% Unemployed 19% 22% Retired 17% 35% Students 21% 22% Once again, the education variable reveals very significant differences and has a considerable impact on the results. The longer respondents remained in full-time education the more likely they are to vote at the European elections in June 2009: 41% of those who studied up to the age of at least 20 declared that they would definitely vote compared with 25% of those who left school before the age of 16. The older the respondents the more likely they are to vote: 35% of those aged 55 or over compared with 22% of those aged under 25. Nevertheless, it is important to emphasise that 16% of the oldest respondents also declared that they would definitely not vote compared with only 11% of those aged 25-54. One in five respondents aged under 25 declared that they would definitely not vote. However the fact that part of the sample in the under 25 age category will not have reached the legal voting age in June - 15 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections must be borne in mind. More than half of those aged 55 or over (51%; 16% who will not vote + 35% who will definitely vote) are certain whether or not they will vote in June 2009 compared with only 37% (11% + 26%) of those in the 25-39 age category. It is interesting to note that the political leanings of respondents are not a particularly discriminating variable: 36% of Europeans on the left of the political spectrum declared that they would definitely vote compared with 10% who would definitely not vote, while 35% of those on the right of the political spectrum declared that they would definitely vote compared with 9% who would definitely not vote. Those in the centre of the left-right political spectrum, however, are slightly less likely to declare that they would definitely vote (30%). Finally, there are fairly significant differences depending on the occupation of respondents: almost four out ten respondents in general management positions (39%) declared that they would definitely vote compared with only 22% of unemployed people and students. With more than a year to go before the European elections, the higher socio-cultural categories thus have, at present, the highest level of awareness of the event. - 16 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 2.2 Reasons for not voting Where the aim is to mobilise voters, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the reasons why certain respondents declared that they were unlikely to vote 6. Accordingly, the respondents who rated their voting intentions at between 1 to 5 on the voting likelihood scale, i.e. 34% of the sample, were asked the reasons why they were unlikely to vote. QC5 If you do not go to vote in the European elections of June 2009 will it be because? Yes No DK You believe that your vote will not change anything 68% 24% 8% You do not sufficiently know the role of the European Parliament 60% 32% 8% You are not interested in the European elections 59% 33% 8% You believe that you are not sufficiently informed to go vote 58% 34% 8% You believe that the European Parliament does not sufficiently deal with problems that concern you 57% 28% 15% You do not feel you are sufficiently represented by the Members of the European Parliament 53% 31% 16% You are not interested in politics, by elections in general 46% 49% 5% You are not interested in European affairs 45% 47% 8% You believe that the European Parliament does not have enough power 26% 53% 21% You never vote 24% 70% 6% You are against Europe, the EU, the European construction 23% 65% 12% You are not registered on the electoral lists 16% 74% 10% You believe that you will be held up, due to traveling, work, health, etc 15% 72% 13% 0% 100% The reasons given by the respondents who declared that they were not certain to vote can be divided into two categories: reasons reflecting a conscious choice and circumstantial reasons. Reasons reflecting a conscious choice. Several factors can lead to a voter deciding not to vote: First of all as a political choice. This concerns respondents who are hostile to or have reservations about politics in the general sense of the word or 6 QC5 If you do not go to vote in the European elections of June 2009, will it be because? - 17 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections do not feel concerned by politics at the European level. Thus, 59% of this proportion of the overall sample stated that they were not certain that they would vote because they are not interested in the European elections. 45% said that they are not interested in European affairs. On the other hand, only 23% of them declared that they are against the construction of Europe compared with 65% who take the opposite view. It is interesting to note that 46% of them said that they are not interested in politics and elections in general. For such voters, therefore, it is not the European nature of the elections but politics in general which is the issue. 24% of them declared that they never vote. Secondly because of a lack of information: 60% of the respondents who are not certain to vote declared that they do not know enough about the European Parliament s role, compared with 32% who take the opposite view. 58% of them think that they are not sufficiently well informed to vote and 26% think that the European Parliament does not have enough power. Finally, for reasons related to two different feelings. First of all a feeling that the European Parliament is remote from citizens and their problems: 57% think that the European Parliament does not sufficiently deal with problems that concern them compared with 28% who take the opposite view. More than half of them declared that they do not feel that they are sufficiently represented by MEPs (53%). Secondly a feeling of pointlessness: 68% of respondents who are fairly unlikely to vote think that their vote will not change anything. However, this reason is, in a way, at odds with the two categories analysed above: the lack of interest in politics in general and the perceived remoteness of the European Parliament. It is also possible to theorize that since the European Union s enlargement to twenty-seven Member States, European citizens may feel that their voice counts for less and they are just one among so many and that, consequently, their vote is unlikely to have a direct impact. Circumstantial reasons. Although they apply in only a minority of cases, these reasons regarding the organisation of voting or individual circumstances are causes of abstention which could be partly corrected. Some 15% of the overall sample mentioned reasons such as travelling, work, health, etc. as reasons for not voting. Further, 16% declared that they are not registered on the electoral lists. - 18 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections With one year to go before the European elections, we have not therefore noticed any disaffection with the European Union. The reasons mentioned by the 34% who do not expect to vote rather reveal a lack of information about the way the European Parliament works, the role of MEPs and the impact of their work on the everyday life of citizens. The perceived distance between European citizens and the European Parliament also helps to explain this low voter mobilisation which, with more than a year to go before voting, nevertheless remains relative. It would therefore appear necessary to step up communication efforts, in particular in order to inform citizens about the role and actions of the European Parliament as they affect the everyday life of citizens: it is possible that, if they were better informed, some Europeans who are today hesitant or even recalcitrant might change their minds and turn out to vote on 4-7 June 2009. As was noted above, other measures of a technical nature could be adopted to encourage citizens to vote on D Day, for example by facilitating travelling or proxy voting, etc. - 19 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 3. VOTING CRITERIA We then attempted to identify the main criteria applied by European citizens when choosing candidates for the next European elections 7. To that end, we listed a number of criteria combining national and European dimensions, in particular as regards the positions of candidates, as well as aspects relating to their reputation and experience, and asked respondents to choose the main criteria influencing their decision. The most frequently mentioned voting criterion was the candidate s experience in European affairs: 4 out of ten respondents mentioned this factor (40%). Next, 37% of respondents mentioned the positions of candidates on national issues and 36% their positions on European issues. After this, 30% of Europeans mentioned the personality of the candidates and the positions of the candidates parties. Finally, 29% of respondents mentioned the experience of candidates at national level and 17% their reputation. QC4T Main elements in the decision in view of the European elections - % EU27 The experience of the candidate on European affairs The positions of candidates on national issues The positions of candidates on European issues 37% 36% 40% The personality of the candidates The positions of the candidates parties on European issues The experience of the candidates at the national level 30% 30% 29% The notoriety of the candidates 17% Others (SPONTANEOUS) 1% DK 17% 7 QC4 Among the following criteria, can you tell me what would be the main element in your decision in view of the European elections? Firstly? QC4b Which other? - 20 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections In this analysis, we shall focus first on the elements dealing with the purely political dimension, by examining the criteria relating to national and European issues. Secondly, we shall examine the criteria directly related to the candidates, their experience of European and national politics, their personality and their reputation. 3.1 European issues and national issues - European issues and national issues are seen as being of equal importance for the 2009 elections Respondents consider that national issues and European issues will have more or less the same importance in their voting choices for the next European elections. The positions of candidates on national issues and European issues were mentioned in similar proportions by respondents, namely 37% and 36% respectively, as factors influencing their choice. However the positions of candidates on European issues are placed ahead of national issues in five of the six founding States of the Union: the Netherlands (54% mentioned European issues compared with 42% for national issues), Belgium (46% versus 39%), France (45% versus 41%), Luxembourg (43% versus 27%) and Germany (43% versus 35%). In Italy, respondents are divided on this question, with 32% mentioning both aspects. It is interesting to note that in the countries having a long tradition of European political life, European criteria prevail over national criteria. - 21 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections By way of contrast, in the twelve new Member States respondents give priority to the positions of candidates on national issues. In Romania and Bulgaria, the differences are significant: 51% of Bulgarians mentioned the positions of candidates on national issues compared with 23% who mentioned European issues, i.e. a difference of 28 percentage points; 52% of Romanians mentioned national issues ahead of 28% who mentioned European issues, i.e. a difference of 24 percentage points. Only respondents in Estonia are divided, since both elements were mentioned by 27% of respondents. This pre-eminence given to national over European issues can be explained by the relative newness of European political life in these countries. - 22 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections In the list of criteria, we also suggested the positions of candidates parties on European issues. This aspect was mentioned by 30% of respondents compared with 36% of respondents who mentioned the positions of candidates on European issues. In twenty-five out of the twenty-seven European Union Member States, the line taken by the candidates parties obtained a lower score than the position of the candidates themselves. QC4T Main elements in the decision in view of the European elections The positions of candidates on national issues The positions of candidates on European issues EU27 37% 36% Age 15-24 35% 37% 25-39 40% 39% 40-54 39% 40% 55 + 35% 31% Education (End of) 15-32% 26% 16-19 38% 35% 20+ 43% 48% Still Studying 35% 41% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 39% 43% (5-6) Centre 40% 38% (7-10) Right 43% 35% Respondent occupation scale Self-employed 39% 40% Managers 47% 50% Other white collars 41% 38% Manual workers 39% 36% House persons 33% 29% Unemployed 33% 30% Retired 33% 31% Students 35% 41% The oldest respondents were least likely to mention the positions of candidates on European issues: less than a third of those aged 55 or over gave this reply (31%). It is important to note that this age category relegated European issues to fourth place in the decision-making criteria, behind the candidate s personality (32%). The personality criterion was considered as being of secondary importance by the other age groups. - 23 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections The longer the respondents have studied, the more likely they are to mention the positions of candidates on national issues and European issues as voting criteria at the next elections: 43% of respondents who had studied up to at least the age of 20 mentioned the positions of candidates on national issues and 48% mentioned European issues, while 32%% of those who left school before the age of 16 mentioned national issues and 26% European issues. The difference between these two categories is bigger when it comes to positions on European issues as compared with positions on national issues: +11 percentage points on national issues and +22 percentage points on European issues. The political positioning of respondents is a fairly discriminating variable for these two criteria: 43% of respondents who consider themselves to be on the left of the political spectrum mentioned the positions of candidates on European issues, compared with 35% of respondents on the right. On the other hand, respondents on the right of the political spectrum are slightly more likely than those on the left to mention the position of candidates on national issues (43% versus 39%). Finally, occupation is also a discriminating variable when analysing these two criteria. Half of those in general management positions (50%) mentioned the positions of candidates on European issues compared with 31% of retired people, 30% of unemployed people and 29% of home makers. These differences also apply to the positions of candidates at national level: 47% of people in general management positions mentioned them compared with 33% of unemployed people, home makers and retired people. The differences between the occupational categories are substantial, but the two criteria were mentioned in similar proportions by the different categories. The only noteworthy difference concerns students. 41% of whom mentioned the positions of candidates on European issues compared with 35% who mentioned national issues. - 24 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 3.2 Candidates Less political elements relating to the experience and personality of candidates also play an important role. - The candidate s European experience takes precedence over national experience - Experience of European affairs, as we noted in the introduction to this part, is the criterion the most frequently mentioned by Europeans: 40% of them mentioned this criterion. European experience for European elections: that is the reasoning of a majority of interviewees, who put the European experience of candidates ahead of their experience at national level when deciding for which candidate to vote. Thus, the experience of candidates in European affairs was mentioned by an absolute majority of respondents in eight Member States: Sweden (60%), Luxembourg (59%), Slovenia (59%), Finland (57%), Greece (55%), Cyprus (54%), Denmark (54%) and Estonia (52%). In these eight countries, the candidate s experience in European affairs easily prevails over their experience at national level: the difference between these two criteria ranges from +22 percentage points in Sweden (60% versus 38% who mentioned the experience of candidates at national level) to +11 percentage points in Cyprus (54% versus 43%). In contrast, respondents in only three Member States put national experience ahead of European experience: in Latvia (45% mentioned the experience of candidates at national level versus 40% at European level), Bulgaria (40% versus 35%) and Romania (36% versus 30%). These results are understandable in Romania and Bulgaria since these two countries joined the European Union on 1 January 2007. The first European elections were held in May (in Bulgaria) and November (in Romania) 2007 8. European political life is relatively new for these countries. In all probability Romanians and Bulgarians consider that, for the time being, the European experience of candidates cannot be taken into consideration to any significant extent as a voting criterion. However, in the vast majority of Member States, including the ten countries which joined the EU in 2004, experience in European affairs is considered more important than experience at national level. That is the sign of the existence in the mind of Europeans of a real 8 From 26 September 2005, 35 Romanian observers and 18 Bulgarian observers were present at the European Parliament. On 1 January 2007, the observers automatically became MEPs. European elections were held in May 2007 in Bulgaria and in November 2007 in Romania. These newly elected MEPs have a two year term of office up to the new elections in June 2009. For the 2009-2013 legislative term Romania and Bulgaria will have 33 and 17 MEPs respectively. - 25 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections European political area and the specificity of European political affairs in comparison to national political affairs. QC4T Main elements in the decision in view of the European elections The experience of the candidate on European affairs The experience of the candidates at the national level EU27 40% 29% Age 15-24 40% 25% 25-39 39% 29% 40-54 44% 30% 55 + 37% 30% Education (End of) 15-30% 28% 16-19 40% 30% 20+ 49% 32% Still Studying 43% 26% Trust in EU Tend to trust 48% 31% Tend not to trust 33% 28% The respondent s age plays a fairly unimportant role. Nevertheless, the oldest respondents are the most likely to mention the experience of candidates at national level and the least likely to mention their experience in European affairs. The age at which respondents completed their studies is a discriminating variable for judging the importance of the candidate s European experience as a voting criterion: 30% of respondents who left school before the age of 16 declared that they would take this element into account when making their decision on how to vote compared with almost half of respondents who studied up to the age of 20 or over (49%), i.e. a difference of 19 percentage points. On the other hand, this difference is as low as 4 percentage points as regards the experience of candidates at national level: 28% of respondents who left school before the age of 16 consider this to be a voting criterion compared with 32% of those who studied up to the age of 20 or over. The same pattern is to be found when analysing the trust in the European Union variable: 48% of those who declared that they trust the European Union regard the - 26 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections European experience of candidates as a voting criterion compared with 33% of those who do not trust the European Union, i.e. a difference of 15 percentage points. - The personality of the candidates is more important than their reputation - The personal traits of candidates are seen as secondary voting criteria for the 2009 European elections: 30% of Europeans mentioned the personality of candidates and 17% the reputation of candidates. We note that the importance of this criterion varies considerably from one country to another. The personality of the candidates was mentioned by an absolute majority of respondents in six Member States: Cyprus (69%), Bulgaria (63%), Slovakia - 27 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections (63%), Greece (55%), Slovenia (55%) and the Czech Republic (52%). Moreover, this element was the most frequently mentioned criterion in Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. On the other hand, fewer than one in five respondents mentioned this criterion in the Netherlands (19%), Spain (19%) and the United Kingdom (12%). Finally, the reputation of the candidates is an element that is likely to play a minor role in the voting criteria of Europeans: only 17% of respondents mentioned it as a voting criterion, far behind the other criteria. In the twenty-seven Member States, this criterion was mentioned by less than half of respondents. In Ireland and Latvia this criterion was nevertheless mentioned by 45% and 42% of respondents respectively. The proportion of respondents mentioning this criterion was less than 10% in Slovenia (9%), Sweden (6%) and the United Kingdom (5%). It is interesting to note that a similar proportion of respondents do not know what will be the main factor in their decision on how to vote in the next European elections: 17% of Europeans did not express an opinion on this question. The United Kingdom has the highest level of DK replies (32%). More than two out of ten respondents in Spain (28%), Portugal (22%) and Italy (21%) also felt unable to express an opinion on their main decision-making criteria for the European elections. QC4T Main elements in the decision in view of the European elections The personality of the candidates The notoriety of the candidates DK EU27 30% 17% 17% Age 15-24 28% 15% 20% 25-39 29% 16% 15% 40-54 31% 17% 14% 55 + 32% 18% 20% Education (End of) 15-27% 19% 27% 16-19 32% 18% 16% 20+ 32% 14% 7% Still Studying 28% 13% 19% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 28% 18% 12% (5-6) Centre 32% 15% 14% (7-10) Right 34% 18% 11% The importance that respondents attach to the personality and reputation of the candidates increases with age: personality was mentioned by 32% of people aged 55 or - 28 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections over compared with 28% of those aged under 25; 18% of those aged 55 or over mentioned reputation compared with 15% of those aged under 25. This time, the education variable has little impact on the results: 32% of respondents who studied until the age of 16 or over mentioned the personality of the candidates compared with 27% of those who left school before the age of 16. On the other hand, a larger proportion of respondents who left school at a relatively early age mentioned the reputation of the candidates (19%) compared with 14% of those who remained in full-time education up the age of at least 20. Finally, fairly logically, the rate of DK replies varies considerably depending on the level of education: 27% of those who left school before the age of 16 did not answer the question compared with 7% of those who studied up to the age of 20 or over, i.e. a difference of 20 percentage points between the two categories. Respondents in the youngest age category (aged under 25) and those in the oldest age category (55 or over) are the most likely to reply DK this question (20%). Finally, political leanings have little influence on the respondent s perceived importance of the personality of the candidates : 34% of Europeans on the right of the political spectrum mentioned this criterion compared with 28% of those on the left. The voting criteria of Europeans for the 2009 European elections therefore combine European issues and national issues in like proportions. Although a European political area very clearly exists, European issues remain just as important as national issues for citizens. Logically, the longer the country s experience of European political life, the more importance citizens attach to European issues as a criterion when choosing a candidate. The longer respondents have studied the more importance they attach to European issues when deciding for whom to vote. - 29 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 4. THE CAMPAIGN THEMES As noted above, Europeans voting criteria for the next European elections combine national issues and European issues. We shall now examine the campaign themes which Europeans believe should be given priority. The priorities at European level seem to be very clear. Respondents want the campaign to focus first and foremost on economic themes, then on global and security-related themes and finally on themes directly related to the European Union. 9 4.1 Economic themes QC6T Themes for the next European elections - % EU27 Unemployment Economic growth 45% 47% Inflation and purchase power 41% Crime Terrorism The fight against climate change The future of pensions Immigrat ion 37% 35% 33% 32% 32% The single currency, the Euro Agriculture The role of the EU in the international scene The powers and competences of the European institutions European values and identity The preservation of the European social model 17% 17% 15% 12% 12% 12% Other (SPONTANEOUS) 1% DK 5% The themes which Europeans want to be given priority during the campaign for the next European elections are directly related to the uncertainties of the current international economic situation and the direct repercussions on their everyday lives. 9 QC6a For you, among the following themes, which are the ones that the electoral campaign for the next European elections should concentrate on? Firstly? QC6b Any others? - 30 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Three main themes stand out with scores ranging from 41 to 47%. Unemployment is the main issue, mentioned by 47% of respondents, followed by economic growth with 45% and inflation and purchasing power, mentioned by 41% of the people interviewed. These three themes confirm the trends noted during the first results of the Standard Eurobarometer 69 where inflation was the most frequently mentioned concern, (37%), just ahead of unemployment (24%) and the economic situation (20%). 10 There are, however, significant variations when the results are examined by country. For example, unemployment was mentioned by 83% of respondents in Greece, 69% in Hungary and 65% in Portugal. This problem was the most frequently mentioned theme in these countries as well as in Germany where 59% mentioned it. At the other end of the scale, unemployment was mentioned by 29% of respondents in the United Kingdom and by only 21% of respondents in Denmark. This theme was not included in the top three campaign themes in those countries. The same differences in the results by country also apply to economic growth: 70% of Greeks and Cypriots mentioned this theme as one of those on which the electoral campaign should concentrate. On the other hand, only 31% of British respondents and 28% of Austrians mentioned it. Finally inflation and purchasing power have emerged as one of the major concerns of Europeans: more than four out of ten respondents mentioned this theme (41%). It is noteworthy that the future of pensions was mentioned by 32% of European citizens. 10 See the first results of the Standard Eurobarometer EB 69. Crime was ranked third among the concerns of Europeans on an equal footing with the economic situation (both themes scored 20%). http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb69/eb_69_first_en.pdf - 31 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections There are once again significant differences between Member States. Almost seven out of ten respondents mentioned inflation and purchasing power in Slovenia (69%) and France (68%). Moreover, this theme played an important role in the 2007 French presidential election. In Slovenia, inflation has had a major impact since the introduction of the euro on 1 January 2007. Inflation was also the most frequently mentioned campaign theme in Latvia (65%), Austria (54%) and Belgium (54%). On the other hand, only 25% of respondents in Sweden, 21% in the United Kingdom and 15% in Poland want this issue to be one of the priority themes during the election campaign. - 32 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections It is very interesting to note that inflation was mentioned by almost half of respondents in the euro zone (49%) compared with only 28% in the countries that have not adopted the single currency. It is important to point out that in March 2008, 11 the inflation rate in the euro zone was however slightly lower than that of the European Union as a whole (3.6% and 3.8% 12 respectively). While the problems of inflation are comparable for the euro zone countries and those countries that have not adopted the single currency, the perception of the problem is different. It seems therefore that collective representations play an important role in this regard. This difference between the euro zone and the rest of the European Union also extends to unemployment: more than half of respondents in the euro zone mentioned unemployment (51%) compared with 40% of respondents in the countries that are not members. QC6T Themes for the next European elections Economic Unemployment growth Inflation and purchase power EU27 47% 45% 41% Age 15-24 52% 43% 39% 25-39 48% 50% 42% 40-54 48% 46% 44% 55 + 43% 41% 40% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 49% 43% 44% (5-6) Centre 48% 46% 43% (7-10) Right 42% 51% 41% Respondent occupation scale Self-employed 43% 55% 41% Managers 38% 48% 38% Other white collars 45% 49% 47% Manual workers 52% 47% 46% House persons 51% 39% 38% Unemployed 62% 41% 40% Retired 43% 41% 40% Students 50% 43% 36% There are also significant differences from a socio-demographic point of view. From the point of view of political leanings, respondents on the left of the political spectrum are more likely to mention unemployment as an election campaign theme (49%), than those 11 The survey was carried out between 25 March and 4 May. 12 Source Eurostat, inflation rate at the time of the survey (March 2008) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/page/pgp_prd_cat_prerel/pge_cat_prerel_year_2008/pge_c AT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_04/2-16042008-FR-AP.PDF - 33 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections on the right (42%). On the other hand, more than half of Europeans on the right of the political spectrum mentioned economic growth (51%) compared with 43% of Europeans on the left. An absolute majority of those aged under 25 (52%) want unemployment to be at the heart of the 2009 election campaign. This is their priority campaign theme, far ahead of economic growth (43%). Young people are the worst affected by unemployment in Europe, which may explain this high score. Nevertheless, it is important to emphasise that this theme is also the number one theme for those aged 55 or over, although it was mentioned by only 43% of them. Half of respondents aged between 25 and 39 mentioned economic growth among their priorities for the European elections. This is the only age group which placed unemployment in second position among their priority themes for the election campaign of spring 2009. As regards differences according to the occupation of respondents it is important to emphasise that: More than half of self-employed people (55%) and 48% of people in general management positions want economic growth to be at the heart of the electoral campaign compared with 39% of home makers, and 41% of unemployed people and retired people. 62% of unemployed people believe that unemployment should be one of the key campaign themes compared with only 38% of people in a general management position. We can therefore draw two conclusions: Europeans, concerned by the poor economic situation, want to see politicians focus on concrete economic problems during the electoral campaign for the European elections. Although it is undeniable that overall Europeans want the electoral campaign to concentrate on economic problems, there are sometimes significant differences of appraisal between countries. - 34 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 4.2 Global and security-related themes In terms of prioritisation, Europeans place global and security-related themes in second position, with scores ranging from 30% to 37%. For example, more than 30% of respondents mentioned crime (37%), terrorism (35%), fighting climate change (33%) and immigration (32%). Once again, there are significant variations between countries for these global and securityrelated themes: Crime was mentioned by 73% of respondents in Cyprus and 70% of respondents in Ireland. In those two countries, this was the number one theme mentioned. On the other hand, fewer than three out of ten respondents in Spain (28%), Latvia (28%), Luxembourg (24%), Malta (21%) and France (21%) want crime to be at the centre of the campaign. More than half of respondents in Spain (53%) and Denmark (52%) want terrorism to be one of the campaign themes. That view is shared by 46% of British respondents. These results seem logical in these countries marked by recent terrorist attacks and threats. - 35 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections 55% of respondents in Spain, 52% in Malta and 49% in the United Kingdom want immigration to be a campaign theme in the 2009 elections. In these three countries immigration was the most frequently mentioned theme. At the other end of the scale, only 9% of Poles mentioned it (12th position in their list of priorities in reply to this question), 12% of Bulgarians (9th position) and 15% of Portuguese respondents (11th position). - 36 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Finally, as regards the fight against climate change, it is noteworthy that respondents in the countries in the far north of the EU as well as in the EU s southernmost countries are very concerned by this issue and want it to be a key election theme. Thus, 72% of Swedes, 66% of Danes and 53% of Finns mentioned it as their number one priority, as did 53% of Cypriots and 48% of Greeks. - 37 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections QC6T Themes for the next European elections Crime Terrorism Immigration The fight against climate change EU27 37% 35% 33% 32% Age 15-24 35% 34% 38% 29% 25-39 33% 33% 35% 31% 40-54 36% 34% 34% 33% 55 + 41% 37% 29% 33% Education (End of) 15-42% 39% 23% 35% 16-19 38% 35% 33% 33% 20+ 30% 31% 42% 29% Still Studying 33% 32% 42% 27% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 33% 35% 39% 32% (5-6) Centre 40% 37% 35% 34% (7-10) Right 39% 36% 31% 34% The global and security-related themes reveal the same socio-demographic differences as those noted for the other questions. Age is a discriminating criterion for crime and the fight against climate change. More than four out of ten respondents aged 55 or over (41%) mentioned crime as a priority for the future campaign. This theme was placed in joint second position with the future of pensions and economic growth. On the other hand, the opposite is true as regards climate change, that is to say the younger the respondents the more likely they are to want this issue to be one of the campaign themes: 38% of those aged under 25 compared with 29% for those aged over 55 (difference of 9 percentage points). Crime, terrorism and immigration were more frequently mentioned by respondents having left school at a relatively early age: 42% of those who left school before the age of 16 mentioned crime, compared with 30% of those who studied up to the age of 20 or over (a difference of 12 percentage points). That is also true of terrorism (39% versus 31%) and immigration (35% versus 29%). The reverse applies to the fight against climate change: 42% of respondents who studied until the age of 20 or over want this theme to be at the heart of the election campaign compared with only 23% of respondents who left school before the age of 16, i.e. a difference of 19 percentage points. - 38 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Finally, the themes of crime and the fight against climate change underscore the left-right contrast: 39% of respondents on the right of the political spectrum want crime to be on the agenda for the electoral campaign compared with 33% of respondents on the left. On the other hand, almost four out of ten respondents on the left of the political spectrum want the fight against climate change to be on the agenda compared with 31% of respondents on the right. 4.3 Themes directly related to the European Union It is striking to note that Europeans place themes directly related to the European Union in third position, with a range of scores that do not exceed 20%. None of these themes are mentioned as the number one priority in any of the twenty-seven Member States. 17% mentioned the single currency, 17% agriculture and 15% the European Union s role on the international scene. Finally, the preservation of the European social model, the powers of the European institutions and European values and identity come last, each mentioned by 12% of Europeans. The single currency was mentioned by a slightly higher number of respondents in the euro zone countries (18%) than in the countries outside the euro zone (15%). The highest scores for the euro were obtained in Slovakia (29%) ahead of Greece (27%) and Italy (26%). Only 5% of citizens in Malta want to see the euro at the heart of the campaign: it should be borne mind that Malta only recently adopted the single currency, i.e. at the very beginning of 2008. EU Citizens are far more divided on agriculture: 28% of the respondents of the twelve new Member States want this to be a campaign theme compared with only 14% of respondents in the fifteen old Member States. 40% of respondents in Romania, 36% in Latvia and 35% in Bulgaria mentioned agriculture. It should be noted that in France, only 16% of those interviewed mentioned agriculture. - 39 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections QC6T Themes for the next European elections The role of the EU in the international scene The preservation of the European social model EU27 15% 12% Age 15-24 14% 11% 25-39 16% 13% 40-54 16% 14% 55 + 13% 11% Education (End of) 15-7% 7% 16-19 13% 13% 20+ 25% 18% Still Studying 17% 12% Left-Right scale (1-4) Left 18% 17% (5-6) Centre 15% 11% (7-10) Right 17% 12% The respondent s age has little influence on the results for these two themes. The intermediate age categories were, however, the most likely to mention these two themes. As the table above shows, the age at which the respondents completed their studies influences response rates for the European Union s role on the international scene and the preservation of the social model. Almost a quarter of respondents who studied up to the age of 20 or over mentioned the first theme compared with only 7% of those who left school before the age of 16. The second theme was mentioned by 18% of Europeans who studied up to at least the age of 20 compared with 7% of respondents who left school at a relatively early age. Respondents on the left of the political spectrum are slightly more likely than those on the right to mention the preservation of the European social model: 17% versus 12%. European public opinion therefore expects the campaign for the 2009 European elections to deal with practical problems which affect their everyday lives: unemployment, economic growth and purchasing power. These themes were mentioned far more frequently than themes perceived as being more abstract, such as the European social model. - 40 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections These results confirm that European voters want candidates to propose practical solutions to these problems by attempting to demonstrate that the European Union has the means to act in these areas. - 41 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Conclusion With more than a year to go to the European elections, the electoral campaign has not yet begun, and the main election issues have not yet been given any media coverage. Although the fact that polling is still a long way off needs to be taken into account when analysing the results of this survey, a certain number of conclusions can nevertheless be drawn at this stage: Awareness of the event is still very low. Only 16% of Europeans know that the European elections will be held next year, in 2009. Furthermore, 51% of them declared that they are not interested in these elections. However, awareness of the exact date has improved slightly and will continue to improve as voting day gets nearer. Against this background, it is not possible to determine the turnout for next June s elections. We can simply say that 30% of Europeans are currently certain that they will vote compared with 14% who will definitely not vote. We can identify four main reasons for the intention not to vote: a lack of information, a lack of interest in politics, the feeling that the European Parliament is somewhat remote from citizens and the feeling that voting will not change anything. The first three of these reasons will be decisive in determining the turnout. If they are taken on board at this stage by candidates, political parties and European institutions, albeit may be possible to modify future electoral behaviour. The voting criteria for the 2009 elections combine national ad European dimensions. The two aspects are therefore at the heart of the decision-making process of future voters. As often, national issues will play an important role in the European elections. Finally, in general, Europeans want economic issues to dominate the campaign. In economically difficult times, they want the campaign to give priority to unemployment (47%), economic growth (45%) and inflation (41%), followed by global and security-related themes. Themes directly related to the European Union are placed last. But these priorities cannot conceal the differences in results between countries: the preferred themes vary very significantly from one Member State to another. - 42 -
Special EUROBAROMETER 69.2 The 2009 European elections Although European public opinion recognises the existence of a European political area, such issues still face competition from national political concerns.. The differences in campaign theme priorities by country and the importance of national issues in the voting criteria reflect a common but fragmented political area. Europeans want to see practical economic problems at the heart of the 2009 European electoral campaign. Only a very significant improvement in the economic situation could modify the priorities that Europeans want the campaign to address. The two main challenges of the 2009 European elections will be to inform European citizens about the European Parliament s role and the ability of candidates to offer practical solutions at European level to the economic crisis. - 43 -
ANNEXES
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
SPECIAL EUROBAROMETER N 299 2009 EP elections TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS Between the 25 th of March and the 04 th of May 2008, TNS Opinion & Social, a consortium created between Taylor Nelson Sofres and EOS Gallup Europe, carried out wave 69.2 of the EUROBAROMETER, on request of the EUROPEAN COMMISSION, Directorate-General for Communication, Research and Political Analysis. The SPECIAL EUROBAROMETER N 299 is part of wave 69.2 and covers the population of the respective nationalities of the European Union Member States, resident in each of the Member States and aged 15 years and over. The basic sample design applied in all states is a multi-stage, random (probability) one. In each country, a number of sampling points was drawn with probability proportional to population size (for a total coverage of the country) and to population density. In order to do so, the sampling points were drawn systematically from each of the "administrative regional units", after stratification by individual unit and type of area. They thus represent the whole territory of the countries surveyed according to the EUROSTAT NUTS II (or equivalent) and according to the distribution of the resident population of the respective nationalities in terms of metropolitan, urban and rural areas. In each of the selected sampling points, a starting address was drawn, at random. Further addresses (every Nth address) were selected by standard "random route" procedures, from the initial address. In each household, the respondent was drawn, at random (following the "closest birthday rule"). All interviews were conducted face-to-face in people's homes and in the appropriate national language. As far as the data capture is concerned, CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interview) was used in those countries where this technique was available.
ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES INSTITUTES N FIELDWORK POPULATION INTERVIEWS DATES 15+ BE Belgium TNS Dimarso 1.003 01/04/2008 04/05/2008 8.786.805 BG Bulgaria TNS BBSS 1.000 27/03/2008 07/04/2008 6.647.375 CZ Czech Rep. TNS Aisa 1.014 02/04/2008 17/04/2008 8.571.710 DK Denmark TNS Gallup DK 1.005 02/04/2008 04/05/2008 4.432.931 DE Germany TNS Infratest 1.534 29/03/2008 28/04/2008 64.546.096 EE Estonia Emor 1.006 27/03/2008 21/04/2008 887.094 EL Greece TNS ICAP 1.000 28/03/2008 17/04/2008 8.691.304 ES Spain TNS Demoscopia 1.033 27/03/2008 26/04/2008 38.536.844 FR France TNS Sofres 1.040 27/03/2008 27/04/2008 46.425.653 IE Ireland TNS MRBI 1.004 28/03/2008 30/04/2008 3.375.399 IT Italy TNS Abacus 1.022 25/03/2008 26/04/2008 48.892.559 CY Rep. of Cyprus Synovate 504 31/03/2008 24/04/2008 638.900 LV Latvia TNS Latvia 1.008 02/04/2008 29/04/2008 1.444.884 LT Lithuania TNS Gallup Lithuania 1.021 01/04/2008 22/04/2008 2.846.756 LU Luxembourg TNS ILReS 501 26/03/2008 29/04/2008 388.914 HU Hungary TNS Hungary 1.000 28/03/2008 26/04/2008 8.320.614 MT Malta MISCO 500 26/03/2008 16/04/2008 335.476 NL Netherlands TNS NIPO 1.041 01/04/2008 26/04/2008 13.017.690 AT Austria Österreichisches Gallup-Institut 1.000 27/03/2008 20/04/2008 7.004.205 PL Poland TNS OBOP 1.000 30/03/2008 23/04/2008 32.155.805 PT Portugal TNS EUROTESTE 1.001 26/03/2008 24/04/2008 8.080.915 RO Romania TNS CSOP 1.019 25/03/2008 23/04/2008 18.246.731 SI Slovenia RM PLUS 1.003 01/04/2008 27/04/2008 1.729.298 SK Slovakia TNS AISA SK 1.085 01/04/2008 20/04/2008 4.316.438 FI Finland TNS Gallup Oy 1.004 02/04/2008 04/05/2008 4.353.495 SE Sweden TNS GALLUP 1.007 28/03/2008 27/04/2008 7.562.263 UK United Kingdom TNS UK 1.306 01/04/2008 24/04/2008 50.519.877 TOTAL 26.661 25/03/2008 04/05/2008 400.756.031
For each country a comparison between the sample and the universe was carried out. The Universe description was derived from Eurostat population data or from national statistics offices. For all countries surveyed, a national weighting procedure, using marginal and intercellular weighting, was carried out based on this Universe description. In all countries, gender, age, region and size of locality were introduced in the iteration procedure. For international weighting (i.e. EU averages), TNS Opinion & Social applies the official population figures as provided by EUROSTAT or national statistic offices. The total population figures for input in this post-weighting procedure are listed above. Readers are reminded that survey results are estimations, the accuracy of which, everything being equal, rests upon the sample size and upon the observed percentage. With samples of about 1,000 interviews, the real percentages vary within the following confidence limits: Observed percentages 10% or 90% 20% or 80% 30% or 70% 40% or 60% 50% Confidence limits ± 1.9 points ± 2.5 points ± 2.7 points ± 3.0 points ± 3.1 points