Trade trends and trade policy developments Ian Ascough Head of Bilateral Trade Negotiations BIS/DfID Trade Policy Unit
The big picture UK earnings from exports of goods exceeded earnings from exports of services and FDI abroad in 2012. It s a myth that we don t export goods! Goods exports rose by only 0.5% between 2011 and 2012. Services exports and earnings from UK FDI abroad fell between 2011 and 2012 (2.8%, 19.9%) In services we normally have a trade surplus and in goods a trade deficit, which in total leads to a deficit
Big picture (2) UK is world s 10th largest exporter of goods China the largest exporter of goods in 2011, followed by Germany and the USA. UK goods exports to most countries increased over recent years, with markets such as Russia, China, India, Indonesia and Colombia seeing growth of over 70% since 2009. But the UK has lost market share in many of these countries.
Why this matters at the macro and political level Growth from exports and inward investment It was these that took the UK out of recession during the small peak between the latest dips Chancellor set the aim of increasing annual exports to 1 trillion by 2020 = 1 in 4 SMEs exporting? UKTI one of the few parts of government not cut Trade liberalisation a top priority for Government, e.g. at G8 Summit and in our influencing of the EU. Link to future EU referendum?
Million 350000 UK earnings from exports of goods and services and FDI abroad Goods 300000 250000 200000 Services 150000 FDI Ear nings 100000 50000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 total: 569.2 billion, of which: 52.8% Goods, 33.0% Services, 14.2% FDI earnings Source: UK Balance of Payments 2012Q4 Note: 2012 figures are provisional and subject to revision when final estimates are published by the ONS in its Pink Book publication in July 2013.
Footnote reliability of data and trade in value added When is a goods export not a goods export? Think iphone made in China but most of the value goes to the USA. Second largest amount is in the UK (Carphone Warehouse and Vodafone). Or the wings and engine on an Airbus sold to Asia? OECD / WTO research on trade in value added. In value added terms, the US remains the UK s leading individual trading partner, both for imports and exports. The 2009 UK-US trade surplus is higher in value added terms. In 2009, the UK trade deficit with France, Norway and China are lower in value added terms than in gross terms The UK s trade deficit is higher in these terms with Germany and Netherlands
USA GERMANY FRANCE CHINA SPAIN ITALY RUSSIA UAE HONG KONG JAPAN S. KOREA INDIA AUSTRALIA CANADA SINGAPORE TURKEY S. AFRICA SAUDI ARABIA BRAZIL THAILAND MALAYSIA QATAR MEXICO EGYPT INDONESIA COLOMBIA VIETNAM 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Chart D.1: Growth in UK goods exports 2010-11 and 2011-12 (in order of 2012 export value) % change 10-11 % change 11-12 Source: HMRC OTS
2: Trade The in Goods UK s and top Services 10 - Top-10 UK trading partners, 2011 Exports Imports Goods Services Goods Services 1 USA 1 USA 1 Germany USA 1 2 Germany Germany China France 3 Netherlands Netherlands USA 1 Spain 4 France France Netherlands Germany 5 Irish Republic Ireland Norway Japan 6 Belgium/Luxembourg Switzerland France Italy 7 Italy Australia Belgium/Luxembourg Ireland 8 Spain Italy Italy Netherlands 9 China Spain Irish Republic Switzerland 10 Sweden Japan Spain India USA includes Puerto Rico Source: ONS Pink Book 2012
Future trends Import demand in large emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil is expected to grow much faster than in the Eurozone and other developed markets between 2010 and 2020. Vietnamese import demand is expected to grow by around 250% between 2010 and 2020 - faster than any other emerging power, including China. Several markets are expected to see the size of their import market more than double between 2010 and 2020. These are Vietnam, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, India, Malaysia, Japan, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil and Taiwan.
Million UK earnings from exports of goods and services and FDI - Brazil 3,000 2,500 Goods 2,000 1,500 FDI Earnings 1,000 500 Services 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 total: 5,002 million, of which: Source: ONS Balance of Payments (Pink Book) and ONS FDI MA4 49.3% Goods, 24.6% Services, 26.1% FDI Earnings
Million Top-5 UK commodities exported to Brazil 1,200 1,000 800 Top 5 = 95% of total in 2012 Top 1 = 42% of total in 2012 Main changes 2011-12: - 123m road vehicles + 97m other transport equipment (mainly, ships and aircrafts) + 92m pharmaceuticals Machinery & transport equipment Chemicals & related products 600 400 200 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material Clothing, furniture & other misc. manufactured goods 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mineral fuels Source: HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics
share Market share of goods imports into Brazil 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Germany 5.0% Italy 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% France UK 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Top 3 import sources in 2012: China 15.3%; USA 14.6%; Argentina 7.4% Source: BIS analysis of UN Comtrade data
Million UK earnings from exports of goods and services and FDI - China 10,000 9,000 Goods 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Services 3,000 2,000 1,000 FDI Earnings 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 total: 13,349 million, of which: Source: ONS Balance of Payments (Pink Book) and ONS FDI MA4 69.6% Goods, 24.3% Services, 6.1% FDI Earnings
Million Top-5 UK commodities exported to China 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Top 5 = 97% of total in 2012 Top 1 = 57% of total in 2012 Main changes 2011-12: + 1,144m road vehicles - 161m metalliferous ores and metal scrap + 109m general industrial machinery Machinery & transport equipment Crude materials Chemicals & related products 2,000 1,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Clothing, furniture & other misc. manufactured goods Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material Source: HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics
share Market share of goods imports into China 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Germany 4.0% France 3.0% 2.0% Italy 1.0% UK 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Top 3 import sources in 2011: Japan 11.2%; South Korea 9.3%; Other Asia, nes 7.2% Source: BIS analysis of UN Comtrade data
Million UK earnings from exports of goods and services and FDI - USA 45,000 40,000 35,000 Services Goods 30,000 25,000 20,000 FDI Earnings 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 total: 99,975 million, of which: 39.9% Goods, 40.0% Services, 20.1% FDI Earnings UK was the largest inward investor in 2011 (17.4% of total stock) Source: ONS Balance of Payments (Pink Book), ONS FDI MA4 and OECD FDI Positions by Partner Country
Million Top-5 UK commodities exported to the USA 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Top 5 = 94% of total in 2012 Top 1 = 38% of total in 2012 Main changes 2011-12: - 806m petroleum products + 789m miscelalneous manufactured articles (mostly works of art) + 588m road vehicles Machinery & transport equipment Chemicals & related products Clothing, furniture & other misc. manufactured goods Mineral fuels 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material Source: HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics
share Market share of goods imports into USA 6.0% 5.0% Germany 4.0% UK 3.0% France 2.0% Italy 1.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Top 3 import sources in 2011: China 18.4%; Canada 14.1%; Mexico 11.7% Source: BIS analysis of UN Comtrade data
Future trends Import demand in large markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil is expected to grow much faster than in developed markets. Russian demand for imports is expected to grow by almost 160% between 2010 and 2015 - faster than any other emerging power, including China. Five emerging markets are expected to more than double in size between 2010 and 2015 - India, Vietnam, Korea, China and Russia.
Expected % change in import demand, 2010-2020 (FCO analysis of IMF data)
Policy work to improve market access An EU competence. Trade FAC and TPC. Ambitious EU programme of bilateral trade negotiations with developed and emerging markets. UK the main champion. European Commission closer to our view than to the centre of gravity among EU Member States EU Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) should eliminate most tariffs and quotas placed on our goods exports and imports
Policy work to improve market access (2) EU FTAs can address many non-tariff barriers harmonised standards / mutual recognition, address discriminatory practices, open up public procurement and tightly regulated sectors, etc. FTAs can give greater security, e.g. bilateral investment protection provisions, intellectual property protection, etc. BIS lead. Input from No.10, CO, FCO, ministries whole of Government approach. Lord Green and Vince Cable lead. Ken Clarke role too.
Progress on EU FTAs EU-Korea FTA in place biggest deal yet. EU-Singapore virtually concluded EU-Andean (Colombia and Peru) coming in this year EU-Japan negotiations launched March 2013. Could lead to increase in EU GDP amounting to 42 billion EU-ASEAN (once all completed and stitched back together) worth up to 29.5 billion per year to the EU
Progress on EU FTAs (2) EU-Canada to conclude soon? EU-Mercosur issues around protectionism and cohesiveness of the bloc? Fresh momentum in response to start of EU/US negotiations EU-India something achievable this year? EU-Japan launched in March 2013
Progress on EU FTAs (3) EU-US FTA (or Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TTIP) biggest deal in the world. Negotiations launched at G8 Summit in Northern Ireland 10bn annually to the UK Like doing the Single Market again but across the Atlantic? One tank of gas / a living agreement? Government needs to know urgently what barriers UK firms face when doing business in the US in order to work up UK priorities and a shopping list.
Meanwhile in Geneva Real pick-up in bilateral negotiations worldwide given the stalling of the Doha round But a deal on trade facilitation could be possible this year All WTO members would benefit. It could add $70bn annually to global GDP, but EU, China and sub- Saharan Africa will be particular beneficiaries. Half the Doha benefits. Closing this deal will give the WTO a much needed credibility boost. G8 support for the incoming WTO Director General, Azevedo.
The role of business in trade policy We need intel on what it is like doing business with different countries what are the barriers, where are markets not as open as they might be? Company papers, trade association papers, EUlevel papers, joint papers with counterparts in third countries We need business to help keep the momentum up on the bigger negotiations, especially when they get difficult
Thank you Ian Ascough, 020 7215 4146 Ian.Ascough@bis.gsi.gov.uk 1 Victoria Street, SW1H 0ET