Transportation Authority of Marin: 2018 Transportation Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Page 1
Overview and Research Objectives The Transportation Authority of Marin commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives: Gauge the public s perceptions on overall quality of life in Marin County; Assess potential voter support for a sales tax measure to address transportation needs with funding that cannot be taken by the State; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential voter support; Understand commute behavior; and Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics. Page 2
Methodology Overview Data Collection Universe Landline (120), cell phone (77), online interviewing from email invitation (269), and online interviewing from text invitation (328) 124,947 likely November 2018 voters in Marin County Fielding Dates January 17 through January 23, 2018 Interview Length 18 minutes Sample Size 794 Margin of Error ± 3.47% The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in Marin County in terms of their gender, age, and political party type. Page 3
Key Findings Page 4
Q1. Satisfaction with Quality of Life in Marin County 90.3% 2018 55.6% 34.7% 6.3% 3.1% 0.3% 94.0% 2017 61.8% 32.2% 4.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NA Page 5
Q2. Satisfaction with Transportation in Marin County 47.7% 11.9% 35.8% 29.1% 2018 16.5% 6.7% 50.5% 2017 13.3% 37.2% 26.2% 16.5% 6.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NA Page 6
Q3. Uninformed Support for ½-Cent Sales Tax Definitely No 12.3% DK/NA 2.9% Probably No 6.9% 2017 3/4 Data Initial Nov 18 Total Yes 60.8% Total No 30.5% Total Support 77.9% Definitely Yes 47.5% Probably Yes 30.4% In order to: relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads; fix potholes and maintain local roads; improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101; expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion; and, provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities; shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25 million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens oversight, that the State cannot take away? Page 7
Q4. Features of the Measure I A. Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads 2018 2017 1.26 1.24 80.2% B. Fix potholes and maintain local roads 1.22 1.07 Tier 1 F. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better timing of signals 1.13 1.02 G. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge 1.03 1.08 P. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic congestion C. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway 101 1.00 0.97 1.09 Tier 2 N. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea level rise 0.90 0.80 E. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities 0.89 67.3% -2-1 0 1 2 Somewhat Somewhat Less Likely More Likely Much Less Likely Much More Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2. Page 8
Q4. Features of the Measure II D. Expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion 2018 2017 0.81 65.9% K. Support door-to-door transit services for seniors and people with disabilities such as Whistlestop Wheels J. Provide more local bus service to relieve traffic congestion L. Provide matching funds to complete highway carpool lanes and multi-use pathway improvements through the H. Fill in critical gaps in pedestrian pathways M. Maintain and expand school crossing guards and the Safe Routes to Schools and Pathways programs 0.80 0.85 0.79 0.74 0.73 0.85 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.54 Tier 3 Tier 4 O. Increase incentives to use electric vehicles including providing electric vehicle charging facilities 0.39 I. Fill in critical gaps in bike paths 0.33 0.36 47.9% Tier 5-2 -1 0 1 2 Somewhat Somewhat Less Likely More Likely Much Less Likely Much More Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2. Page 9
Q5. Influence of Informational Statements I D. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 C. Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be L. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation needs, but does not increase taxes 1.33 1.36 1.32 1.36 1.30 76.3% B. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without M. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or government employee pension relief J. The measure will help make connections to regional transit like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit I. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local streets and roads A. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure will help stop the deterioration and make repairs 1.29 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.19 1.22 1.15 1.20 Tier 1 H. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency 1.14 1.21 70.3% 2018 2017 0 1 2 No Effect Somewhat Much More More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 10
Q5. Influence of Informational Statements II F. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent citizens' oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money will be spent as promised 1.11 1.22 67.6% K. The proposed regional and State efforts do not cover all the Marin County needs, but this measure will ensure that Marin gets its fair share of State and regional funds E. The measure will make it safer to drive, bike on and walk along local streets, and help relieve greenhouse gases and air pollution G. The measure will preserve and expand bus service to help relieve traffic congestion 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.07 1.11 Tier 2 N. The measure will prevent substantial cuts in local transit programs 1.04 O. The measure will prevent substantial cuts to crossing guard programs 0.70 45.0% Tier 3 2018 2017 0 1 2 No Effect Somewhat Much More More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 11
Q6. Potential Opposition Statements B. The State is increasing gas taxes and vehicle registration fees, and the Bay Area regional government 0.91 56.0% C. Since 2005 TAM has spent $250 million dollars, but traffic is even worse than before. Now they want to 0.87 D. If government agencies managed their budgets more efficiently and reformed out of control pension and H. With high State and local taxes no longer being deductible under new federal tax law, we can't afford A. Marin County has asked taxpayers to approve sales tax measures for transportation, the SMART rail system and G. The measure is growth inducing and will increase the pressure exerted by the State for more subsidized low- E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation, hurting low income and senior citizens the most F. This sales tax measure will result in Marin County having one of the highest sales tax rates in the state, I. Other proposed ballot measures are more important including sales tax increases for early childhood 0.43 0.83 0.78 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 29.2% Tier 1 Tier 2 T-3 0 1 2 No Effect Somewhat Much More More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 12
Q7. Informed Support Final Test Initial Test 39.7% 47.5% 33.5% 30.4% 7.3% 14.3% 5.2% 6.9% 12.3% 2.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 2017 3/4 Data Final Nov 18 Total Yes 61.5% Total No 32.1% 73.2% 77.9% In order to: relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads; fix potholes and maintain local roads; improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101; expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion; and, provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities; shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25 million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens oversight, that the State cannot take away? Page 13
QD. Typical Commute Transportation Used Drive car or truck alone 59.2% 60.4% Work from home/don't work outside the home 14.9% 15.6% Public transit (bus, rail or shuttle) Carpool or vanpool Bike Walk Drive motorcycle or scooter Other DK/NA 7.6% 7.2% 4.6% 4.9% 2.5% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 0.7% 1.0% 6.7% 5.5% 1.4% 1.3% 2018 2017 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Page 14
Summary & Recommendations The survey revealed a solid base of voter support for a sales tax measure. Support for the measure in the November 2018 election was 77.9% on the uninformed test and 73.2%. These levels are substantially higher that the uninformed and informed tests in the 2017 survey of a ¾ cent measure. The top features of the measure were: Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads. Fix potholes and maintain local roads. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better timing of signals. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic congestion. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway 101. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea level rise. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities. This data suggests that some of the items in the ballot question could be revised to focus on voter priorities. Page 15
Summary & Recommendations The most important information items were: The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101. Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation needs, but does not increase taxes. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without approval of the measure, that money will go to other counties. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or government employee pension relief. The measure will help make connections to regional transit like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local streets and roads. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure will help stop the deterioration and make repairs. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency response times. Page 16
Summary & Recommendations Given the survey findings, the two-thirds majority required for approval, Godbe Research recommends that the Transportation Authority of Marin continue the process of preparing for a November 2018 sales tax measure by conducting a comprehensive public outreach effort to explain the transportation needs and solutions. Page 17
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